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The draft lottery-Why such an odd system?

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Old
01-07-2009, 12:38 PM
  #26
Jaded-Fan
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Originally Posted by Foy View Post
What are you talking about? Pittsburgh finished 03-04 one point BELOW the Caps. The Penguins were the worst team in the league. The order pre-lottery was
1. Pittsburgh
2. Chicago
3. Washington

Correct. However the Caps were no where near a lottery pick team until they had their fire sale, and still were not there until they played games calling up Yeats from the McDonalds he had been working at (and went back to and is still working at I believe) to replace Kolzig for something like the last dozen games of the year. The Caps leap frogged two teams to first. Fine with me, the Pens ended up with the better player and if we had chosen first we would have likely not got Crosby. Crosby + Malkin certainly is better than Ovechkin plus whatever they chose in 2005. The real ones who got screwed were Chicago who ended up getting bumped down to pick Barker. Imagine Malkin on that Chicago team.

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01-07-2009, 12:41 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
My team is in the "hunt" for the #1 pick, and I was curiuos how the lottery works.

What's all this sequence of numbers stuff?

Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

I teach 5th grade and asked my class (I'm paraphrasing), "In the NHL there are 30 teams. 14 do not make the playoffs. These teams go into a lottery system to determine who gets the #1 pick. (I took a minute to explain the draft here.) What system could we come up with so that the worse teams have a better shot at getting the #1 pick, as opposed to the team that just might've missed making the playoffs?"

Their answer:
14 teams don't make the playoffs.
The Canes are the worst team in the league, they get 14 balls into a lottery type of machine that one might see on the evening news.
The Caps are the second worst team. They get 13 balls.
The Lightning were the best team that didn't make the playoffs, they get one ball.

That system works. (At least to me it does.)

So, why this probability chart stuff?

(Yes, with my system my students came up with, it is possible to keep the rules of, 'can't move up more than four spots', 'only move down one...')
Your system doesn't work because it's far more likely that a team other then the team that finished last gets the pick. Which isn't a good thing, you're not trying to make it random, you're trying to make it random enough.

The rules are such that a team may only move up 4 spots and down only one. So only the 5 worst teams have a shot at #1 overall. The probabilities are determined so that the worst team has over half of the balls. They have a certain set amount of combinations, The #2 worst team has half of that, #3, half of what #2 gets, and so on.

It's going to be more reliably random if you use several balls to make a combination then if you use balls with team names and just draw the first one that comes out. Cheaper too, since you can use the balls over and over again.

Basically, they make it as elaborate as they do to make it as fair as they can while still preventing cheating.

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01-07-2009, 12:42 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
Correct. However the Caps were no where near a lottery pick team until they had their fire sale, and still were not there until they played games calling up Yeats from the McDonalds he had been working at (and went back to and is still working at I believe) to replace Kolzig for something like the last dozen games of the year. The Caps leap frogged two teams to first. Fine with me, the Pens ended up with the better player and if we had chosen first we would have likely not got Crosby. Crosby + Malkin certainly is better than Ovechkin plus whatever they chose in 2005. The real ones who got screwed were Chicago who ended up getting bumped down to pick Barker. Imagine Malkin on that Chicago team.
If Matt Yeats was so bad, how did he beat Pittsburgh just the week before?

His record down the stretch against Pittsburgh was 1-1. Olie was banged up, Charpy was hurt, Ouellette was needed in Portland.

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01-07-2009, 12:45 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Foy View Post
If Matt Yeats was so bad, how did he beat Pittsburgh just the week before?

His record down the stretch against Pittsburgh was 1-1. Olie was banged up, Charpy was hurt, Ouellette was needed in Portland.
Need me to list the roster Pittsburgh went with? They had a seriously bad team. Granted they did have one of the better records in the NHL for the last quarter or so of the season almost losing (by one point) their hold that had seemed lock solid on last place which would have meant they got Barker. No clue how they went on that tear but it certainly belies any tanking charges for them during that year. But in reality a team composed of twenty of our grandmothers could have beaten the Pens that year. They seriously deserved to be where they ended up.

Oh yeah, LOL at the Ollie was hurt thing. Sure he was. I admitted the Pens did similar the Mario draft year. Many other teams have done the same. Man up and admit that the Caps did so too.

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01-07-2009, 12:51 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
Correct. However the Caps were no where near a lottery pick team until they had their fire sale, and still were not there until they played games calling up Yeats from the McDonalds he had been working at (and went back to and is still working at I believe) to replace Kolzig for something like the last dozen games of the year. The Caps leap frogged two teams to first. Fine with me, the Pens ended up with the better player and if we had chosen first we would have likely not got Crosby. Crosby + Malkin certainly is better than Ovechkin plus whatever they chose in 2005. The real ones who got screwed were Chicago who ended up getting bumped down to pick Barker. Imagine Malkin on that Chicago team.
Learn YOUR history. Yeats started 4 games. One was the win over the Penguins. You are also wrong about the Caps being no where near the lottery until after the firesale. They were one of the 2-4 worst teams in the NHL all season, and even spent some time IN LAST PLACE in Jan.

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01-07-2009, 01:02 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Dooger View Post
Learn YOUR history. Yeats started 4 games. One was the win over the Penguins. You are also wrong about the Caps being no where near the lottery until after the firesale. They were one of the 2-4 worst teams in the NHL all season, and even spent some time IN LAST PLACE in Jan.
No, YOU learn YOUR history. Yeats WAS BORN April 6, 1979 in Innisfail, Alberta. He was later DRAFTED IN THE 1998 NHL entry draft by the LA Kings.

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01-07-2009, 01:08 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
My team is in the "hunt" for the #1 pick, and I was curiuos how the lottery works.

What's all this sequence of numbers stuff?

Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

I teach 5th grade and asked my class (I'm paraphrasing), "In the NHL there are 30 teams. 14 do not make the playoffs. These teams go into a lottery system to determine who gets the #1 pick. (I took a minute to explain the draft here.) What system could we come up with so that the worse teams have a better shot at getting the #1 pick, as opposed to the team that just might've missed making the playoffs?"

Their answer:
14 teams don't make the playoffs.
The Canes are the worst team in the league, they get 14 balls into a lottery type of machine that one might see on the evening news.
The Caps are the second worst team. They get 13 balls.
The Lightning were the best team that didn't make the playoffs, they get one ball.

That system works. (At least to me it does.)

So, why this probability chart stuff?

(Yes, with my system my students came up with, it is possible to keep the rules of, 'can't move up more than four spots', 'only move down one...')

The 'probability chart' ensures enough different combinations (I believe it's 1,001)that they can divide them proportinately among the competing franchises. They want the worst team to have a slightly better than 50/50 chace of winning the first pick, with the other just-less-than-50% divided among the other four teams.

In the suggestion your class gave, the top pick would get only a 13.3% chance of winning, as it would have 14 out of 105 balls (14+13+12+.....+2+1=105). The odds of the lowest team winning are better than the other teams' chances, but the other teams' chances, taken together are better than the lowest team

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Old
01-07-2009, 03:36 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by btn View Post
I am pretty sure this was actually put into place(in some measure) after the Pens were widely suspected of completely tanking their team to get Mario Lemieux back in the early 80's. And it was the Devils who were the runners up in tanking that year, they got Kirk Muller.
As has been mentioned several times, the Draft Lottery originated after the uproar around the Sens tanking in 92-93 to pick Daigle at the 1993 draft.

The Draft Lottery began with the 1995 Draft:

http://www.nhlscap.com/draft.htm

Quote:
"WINNERS" OF THE PREVIOUS DRAFT LOTTERIES
1995 - Los Angeles (was 7th, moved to 3rd; Ottawa retained 1st overall pick)
1996 - Ottawa (retained 1st overall pick)
1997 - Boston (retained 1st overall pick)
1998 - Tampa Bay (was 3rd, moved to 1st)*
1999 - Chicago (was 8th, moved to 4th; Tampa Bay retained 1st overall pick)
2000 - NY Islanders (was 5th, moved to 1st)
2001 - Atlanta (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2002 - Florida (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2003 - Florida (was 4th, moved to 1st
2004 - Washington (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2005 - Pittsburgh (all 30 teams had a chance at #1)
2006 - St. Louis (retained 1st overall pick)
2007 - Chicago (was 5th, moved to 1st)
2008 - Tampa Bay (retained 1st overall pick)

* San Jose was selected in the 1998 draft drawing, but Tampa Bay held the right to swap 1st-round picks with the Sharks and exercised that right to go to 1st.
And if you care - here are the exact percentages (from IB's same page):

Quote:
The percentage chance of being selected in the lottery is as follows, based on team finish:

30th........... 25.0% (250 combinations)
29th........... 18.8% (188 combinations)
28th........... 14.2% (142 combinations)
27th........... 10.7% (107 combinations)
26th.............8.1% (81 combinations)
25th.............6.2% (62 combinations)
24th.............4.7% (47 combinations)
23rd.............3.6% (36 combinations)
22nd............ 2.7% (27 combinations)
21st.............2.1% (21 combinations)
20th.............1.5% (15 combinations)
19th.............1.1% (11 combinations)
18th.............0.8% (8 combinations)
17th.............0.5% (5 combinations)
That page also has a table showing the percentages for all possible results - ie the #1 seed has a 48.2% chance of picking #1 and a 51.8% chance of picking #2.

The big advantage of this system over a weighted ping-pong ball or NBA style lottery is that teams can only drop a maximum of one slot (or move up a max of 4). It serves its purpose to discourage tanking, but still (as much as possible) retains the order based on the standings - the worst team can't be shafted too much and teams that just missed the playoffs can't have a #1 drop in their laps.

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Old
01-07-2009, 03:53 PM
  #34
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So much misinformation being presented as fact in this thread....

Jaded-Fan speaks the truth. All others are pretenders.

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01-07-2009, 04:23 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipAyten View Post
This system works, it gives motivation to the owners and front offices of teams not to remain perennial suck-fests. If a crappy owner who didn't care knew he could neglect his team and allow them to suck while receiving a very high overall pick year after year, it may be a path he choses to take.

I give you the Detroit Lions of the past 10 years..... annual crap, top 5 draft picks for as far as the eye can see. Their reward for all their hard work: The biggest donut the NFL has ever seen.

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01-07-2009, 04:37 PM
  #36
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It'd prevent some teams from tanking too.

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01-07-2009, 06:14 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by invisiblegerman View Post
In the suggestion your class gave, the top pick would get only a 13.3% chance of winning, as it would have 14 out of 105 balls (14+13+12+.....+2+1=105). The odds of the lowest team winning are better than the other teams' chances, but the other teams' chances, taken together are better than the lowest team
But since you can only move up 5 spaces, a win by teams 7-14 would not matter.

Therefore, the first place team still picks first IF

They win (14 balls)
#7 wins (8 balls)
#8 wins (7 balls)
#9 wins (6 balls)
#10 wins (5 balls)
#11 wins (4 balls)
#12 wins (3 balls)
#13 wins (2 balls)
#1 wins (1 ball)
---------------------
50 balls out of 105, ~46%. That a MUCH easier system and still pretty close to the intended result

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01-07-2009, 06:24 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

So, why this probability chart stuff?
You do realize the NBA now uses the same exact method right?

Choosing 4 numbers out of 14 creates 1,001 unique possibilities. They throw out the 11-12-13-14 combination and have 1,000 different combinations which are then assigned to the various teams.

This method also only requires 14 numbered balls. Your method would require 105 balls. Won't somebody think of the environment?

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01-07-2009, 06:35 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Schitzo View Post
But since you can only move up 5 spaces, a win by teams 7-14 would not matter.

Therefore, the first place team still picks first IF

They win (14 balls)
#7 wins (8 balls)
#8 wins (7 balls)
#9 wins (6 balls)
#10 wins (5 balls)
#11 wins (4 balls)
#12 wins (3 balls)
#13 wins (2 balls)
#1 wins (1 ball)
---------------------
50 balls out of 105, ~46%. That a MUCH easier system and still pretty close to the intended result
Yeah, you wanna NOT poke holes in my reasoning?

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01-07-2009, 07:01 PM
  #40
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The big advantage of this system over a weighted ping-pong ball or NBA style lottery is that teams can only drop a maximum of one slot (or move up a max of 4).
Advantage? That's the massive flaw with the system, not an advantage.

There is no disincentive to tank, because you still get a huge percentage shot at the #1 pick, and can do no worse than #2.

Worse still, all the rest of the teams slot behind in exact point order, even though they may play in entirely different conferences and have almost totally different schedules.

They want to limit how much up or down you can move, fine, I'm ok with that. But there should be multiple movers all over the draft, the 3rd team gets the #1 pick, the #2 gets the #4 pick, the #12 gets the #14, the #14 gets the #10, etc.

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01-07-2009, 07:44 PM
  #41
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Advantage? That's the massive flaw with the system, not an advantage.

There is no disincentive to tank, because you still get a huge percentage shot at the #1 pick, and can do no worse than #2.

Worse still, all the rest of the teams slot behind in exact point order, even though they may play in entirely different conferences and have almost totally different schedules.

They want to limit how much up or down you can move, fine, I'm ok with that. But there should be multiple movers all over the draft, the 3rd team gets the #1 pick, the #2 gets the #4 pick, the #12 gets the #14, the #14 gets the #10, etc.
But what about teams that didn't tank, but were honestly that bad- case in point, the 06-07 Flyers. They were honestly awful but Chicago got the number 1 pick. Imagine the outrage on here if they only got the #5 pick. Flyers fans would torch the league office.

Yes, if you tank you can get a high pick. But if you're in a position to tank, you're probably going to be in the running for it anyway.

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01-07-2009, 08:20 PM
  #42
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I think it is accepted the Devils attempted to tank as well.
I don't know where you got that. The Devils were a poor franchise since they entered the league as the Kansas City Scouts. They had gone a combined 140-391-109 (that an average of 0.304 possible points earned) in Kansas City and Colorado prior to moving to East Rutherford, NJ.

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01-07-2009, 08:47 PM
  #43
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But what about teams that didn't tank, but were honestly that bad- case in point, the 06-07 Flyers. They were honestly awful but Chicago got the number 1 pick. Imagine the outrage on here if they only got the #5 pick. Flyers fans would torch the league office.

Yes, if you tank you can get a high pick. But if you're in a position to tank, you're probably going to be in the running for it anyway.
Maybe more knowledgeable Flyers fans can correct me, but even if Philly had retained the #1 pick I doubt they would have chosen Kane.

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01-07-2009, 08:56 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
Correct. However the Caps were no where near a lottery pick team until they had their fire sale, and still were not there until they played games calling up Yeats from the McDonalds he had been working at (and went back to and is still working at I believe) to replace Kolzig for something like the last dozen games of the year. The Caps leap frogged two teams to first. Fine with me, the Pens ended up with the better player and if we had chosen first we would have likely not got Crosby. Crosby + Malkin certainly is better than Ovechkin plus whatever they chose in 2005. The real ones who got screwed were Chicago who ended up getting bumped down to pick Barker. Imagine Malkin on that Chicago team.
That makes sense because Pittsburgh had the #2 pick in 04, and #1 pick in 05.

The Caps had the #1 pick in 04, and the #14 in 05. It also doesn't help that the Caps missed completely on that pick, by picking Sasha Pokulok, who is playing in the ECHL right now.

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01-07-2009, 09:01 PM
  #45
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The lottery system was put in place after the 1992-93 season when the Senators took tanking to the Nth degree in order to assure getting Alexandre Daigle. It is meant to discourage teams from icing a team that is not competitive or playing their backup goalie for long stretches.

None of the other leagues have the draft lottery and I don't even like the idea that much. Just do what everyone else does and have worst pick first. If a team is in the running for finishing in last place, they likely don't need help tanking.

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01-07-2009, 09:06 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Oblivion View Post
The lottery system was put in place after the 1992-93 season when the Senators took tanking to the Nth degree in order to assure getting Alexandre Daigle. It is meant to discourage teams from icing a team that is not competitive or playing their backup goalie for long stretches.

None of the other leagues have the draft lottery and I don't even like the idea that much. Just do what everyone else does and have worst pick first. If a team is in the running for finishing in last place, they likely don't need help tanking.
Psst, NBA.

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01-07-2009, 09:17 PM
  #47
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Maybe more knowledgeable Flyers fans can correct me, but even if Philly had retained the #1 pick I doubt they would have chosen Kane.
That's not the point. The point was that there's a damn good reason that a team cannot move down more then one spot. It doesn't matter if they go first or second- but it becomes a real concern when they pick fifth. What happens when they end up with Alzner, or Gagner? Both fine players, sure, but not the superstar quality guys Kane and JVR are.

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01-07-2009, 09:29 PM
  #48
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That's not the point. The point was that there's a damn good reason that a team cannot move down more then one spot. It doesn't matter if they go first or second- but it becomes a real concern when they pick fifth. What happens when they end up with Alzner, or Gagner? Both fine players, sure, but not the superstar quality guys Kane and JVR are.
Since when is JVR a "superstar quality" player? I don't even think people expected Kane to be as good as he is so far.

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01-07-2009, 09:31 PM
  #49
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I still lol at the fact that didn't the NHL change it to this new system after the Sens were accused of tanking during the first few years of their return to the NHL in the 90's?

I susf'd.

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01-08-2009, 08:47 AM
  #50
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You do realize the NBA now uses the same exact method right?
Not really - in the NBA, the drawing is done and up to 3 teams can move over the last-place team ... so you could finish dead last in the season and pick #4, while teams that finished 13th, 11th, and 7th-to-last pick ahead of you.

The reason the NHL uses 1,001 combinations? It's an advancement on the NBA's original lottery, which put 55 ping-pong balls into a jar [10=last, 9=2nd to last, ... 1=just missed playoffs] and Orlando got back-to-back #1 picks by finishing dead last one season with a 10/55 chance, then winning the #1 spot the following season on a 1/55 chance.

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