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The draft lottery-Why such an odd system?

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Old
01-08-2009, 09:47 AM
  #51
cptjeff
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Originally Posted by Backstrom #19 View Post
Since when is JVR a "superstar quality" player? I don't even think people expected Kane to be as good as he is so far.
That's not what I heard about them. I had heard that either could have gone number one, and Kane was touted as a step below Crosby, but not by too much.

But again, details. What would the reaction be here if the Flyers slipped to 5th?

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01-08-2009, 10:52 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by *Injektilo View Post
So much misinformation being presented as fact in this thread....

Jaded-Fan speaks the truth. All others are pretenders.
Maybe if you disregard his misinformed comments about the Capitals

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Old
01-09-2009, 07:01 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by cptjeff View Post
But again, details. What would the reaction be here if the Flyers slipped to 5th?
The word 'karma' would have been used 112,003 times in connection with the suspensions that Downie & Co. got last season - showing 112,003 times that many people don't understand the concept of karma.

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01-09-2009, 07:46 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Not really - in the NBA, the drawing is done and up to 3 teams can move over the last-place team ... so you could finish dead last in the season and pick #4, while teams that finished 13th, 11th, and 7th-to-last pick ahead of you.
I meant "the same" as in the same lottery system in picking 4 balls out of 14 and assigning teams a certain percentage of the possibilities. I know the NBA lottery draws 3 teams with no restraint on how far a team can move up. It seemed like the original poster didn't have a grasp on the 14 ball system with the corresponding probabilities. And that the 105 ball system that her fifth graders came up wasn't exactly a better method.

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Old
01-10-2009, 12:00 AM
  #55
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I like the way the NBA does and shows the lotto live and not behind closed doors like the NHL

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Old
01-10-2009, 01:49 AM
  #56
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The whole idea of rewarding failure with high picks is so stupid. It would be nice if they gave the teams which barely missed the playoffs more of a chance to win, to encourage bad teams to make an effort to get better right away, not sit in the basement collecting wellfare picks. Trying to improve the current makeup of your roster should not be detrimental to your franchise.

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01-11-2009, 01:18 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Respect Your Edler View Post
The whole idea of rewarding failure with high picks is so stupid. It would be nice if they gave the teams which barely missed the playoffs more of a chance to win, to encourage bad teams to make an effort to get better right away, not sit in the basement collecting wellfare picks. Trying to improve the current makeup of your roster should not be detrimental to your franchise.
Nice. So bad teams are punished by having to pick later, while good teams get rewarded by picking earlier. In effect, this helps the good get better and the bad get worse. That'll help competitive balance, improve each franchise's short-term and long-term future, and contribute to the overall strength of the league.

Perhaps you should read up on why the draft came into existence, who proposed it, and why the weaker teams were chosen to pick first. You do realize that teams do not intentionally play like crap and that, unlike what 1/3rd of HF posters think, they actually are trying to win games throughout the entire season ... right?

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01-11-2009, 01:46 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Nice. So bad teams are punished by having to pick later, while good teams get rewarded by picking earlier. In effect, this helps the good get better and the bad get worse. That'll help competitive balance, improve each franchise's short-term and long-term future, and contribute to the overall strength of the league.

Perhaps you should read up on why the draft came into existence, who proposed it, and why the weaker teams were chosen to pick first. You do realize that teams do not intentionally play like crap and that, unlike what 1/3rd of HF posters think, they actually are trying to win games throughout the entire season ... right?
The DRAFT (not lottery) if I remember came into effect quite some time ago and was for one of the main reasons Montreal dominating the quebec junior signings, true?

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:34 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
I like the way the NBA does and shows the lotto live and not behind closed doors like the NHL
They showed the results of the Draft Lottery on TSN last season, you must have missed it.

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Old
01-12-2009, 12:05 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Nice. So bad teams are punished by having to pick later, while good teams get rewarded by picking earlier. In effect, this helps the good get better and the bad get worse. That'll help competitive balance, improve each franchise's short-term and long-term future, and contribute to the overall strength of the league.

Perhaps you should read up on why the draft came into existence, who proposed it, and why the weaker teams were chosen to pick first. You do realize that teams do not intentionally play like crap and that, unlike what 1/3rd of HF posters think, they actually are trying to win games throughout the entire season ... right?
Yeah, the Blues were really trying to make the playoffs with the roster they iced in 2005-2006 right? Give me a break, it rewards cheap owners who want to save on payroll with a nice prospect and punishes the teams who do their best to be competitive every year.

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01-12-2009, 07:48 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Respect Your Edler View Post
Yeah, the Blues were really trying to make the playoffs with the roster they iced in 2005-2006 right?
Yeah ... let's forget the 25 consecutive seasons they made the playoffs before that. Let's also forget the underlying reasons why the Blues sucked on the ice [see below].

Quote:
Originally Posted by Respect Your Edler View Post
Give me a break, it rewards cheap owners who want to save on payroll with a nice prospect and punishes the teams who do their best to be competitive every year.
Because that's exactly what then-owner Bill Laurie was trying to do - tank the season to get a really nice prospect.






No, wait - he was trying to sell the team as quickly as possible by gutting the team of all marketable assets in some belief that it would make the team more attractive and thus sell quicker. And yet, you'd rather punish the entire franchise for the stupidity of an owner who had already checked out on the team before training camp ever started.

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Old
01-12-2009, 03:55 PM
  #62
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I'd like to see a system where the probabilities in the draft lottery depend upon the number of points a team finishes with. Thus 2 teams finishing 29th and 30th and only a point or 2 apart would have close to equal chances of getting the first overall pick. On the other hand if the 30th team were to finish 10 points behind he 29th team, they would have a substantially better chance of getting the #1 pick.

This would largely eliminate the problem of teams tanking in the last week of the season in an attempt to drop below some other team.

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Old
01-12-2009, 04:15 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Jonas1235 View Post
They showed the results of the Draft Lottery on TSN last season, you must have missed it.
Not the lottery itself just the results.

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Old
01-12-2009, 06:28 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Foy View Post
What are you talking about? Pittsburgh finished 03-04 one point BELOW the Caps. The Penguins were the worst team in the league. The order pre-lottery was
1. Pittsburgh
2. Chicago
3. Washington

You are also neglecting the fact that Matt Yeats picked up a win against Pittsburgh the week before that meeting on the last day of the year.
Boy can you imagine Ovechkin in Chicago? NHL missed out on this.

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Old
01-12-2009, 06:47 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by cptjeff View Post
That's not what I heard about them. I had heard that either could have gone number one, and Kane was touted as a step below Crosby, but not by too much.

But again, details. What would the reaction be here if the Flyers slipped to 5th?
I thought you could only slip 1 position. So the Flyers were guaranteed 1st or 2nd overall since they ended up 30th in the league.

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Old
01-12-2009, 07:06 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Disgruntled View Post
I thought you could only slip 1 position. So the Flyers were guaranteed 1st or 2nd overall since they ended up 30th in the league.
Sigh.... The person I was originally responding to was arguing against that system. For some reason, he thought it was a bad idea. Hence the example.

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Old
01-12-2009, 07:07 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
My team is in the "hunt" for the #1 pick, and I was curiuos how the lottery works.

What's all this sequence of numbers stuff?

Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

I teach 5th grade and asked my class (I'm paraphrasing), "In the NHL there are 30 teams. 14 do not make the playoffs. These teams go into a lottery system to determine who gets the #1 pick. (I took a minute to explain the draft here.) What system could we come up with so that the worse teams have a better shot at getting the #1 pick, as opposed to the team that just might've missed making the playoffs?"

Their answer:
14 teams don't make the playoffs.
The Canes are the worst team in the league, they get 14 balls into a lottery type of machine that one might see on the evening news.
The Caps are the second worst team. They get 13 balls.
The Lightning were the best team that didn't make the playoffs, they get one ball.

That system works. (At least to me it does.)

So, why this probability chart stuff?

(Yes, with my system my students came up with, it is possible to keep the rules of, 'can't move up more than four spots', 'only move down one...')
Your Idea is close to the Way the NBA does it. The last place team would have a 13.3 % chance of getting the top pick. The 2nd and 3rd place teams would have almost the same odds. The odds need to favor the last place (worst) team.

I think you are failing to understand how the draft lottery actually works. A: a team can only move up 4 slots if they "win" the lottery. The team drafting 14th can at best only draft 10th. B:Then lottery is basically like pick 4 in the real lottery each team gets a certain number of "tickets" and if your number comes up then you win. Only one team can win so no-one else can lose their way out of the top 5. The chart keeps the odds even.

http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/...tem-explained/


Anyways a teams position in the draft does NOT necessarily help teams improve. Scouting and player development does. NJ and Detroit are perfect examples of the right way, and Atlanta and Columbus are of the wrong way.


Last edited by Gnashville: 01-12-2009 at 07:23 PM.
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Old
01-12-2009, 07:08 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by cptjeff View Post
Sigh.... The person I was originally responding to was arguing against that system. For some reason, he thought it was a bad idea. Hence the example.
Sorry. I didn't read the whole thread before responding. I'll crawl back into my hole for now.

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Old
01-12-2009, 09:00 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Yeah ... let's forget the 25 consecutive seasons they made the playoffs before that. Let's also forget the underlying reasons why the Blues sucked on the ice [see below].

Because that's exactly what then-owner Bill Laurie was trying to do - tank the season to get a really nice prospect.

No, wait - he was trying to sell the team as quickly as possible by gutting the team of all marketable assets in some belief that it would make the team more attractive and thus sell quicker. And yet, you'd rather punish the entire franchise for the stupidity of an owner who had already checked out on the team before training camp ever started.
That's exactly my problem with the system. The organization should be punished for purposely sucking, especially when they get rewarded at the expense of the Edmontons of the world. There are teams that try and fail to be competitve, and they get punished with mediocrity.

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01-12-2009, 09:03 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Respect Your Edler View Post
That's exactly my problem with the system. The organization should be punished for purposely sucking, especially when they get rewarded at the expense of the Edmontons of the world. There are teams that try and fail to be competitve, and they get punished with mediocrity.
But then you get teams trying to be mediocre, and will succeed, and in the meantime, the genuinely bad teams will get worse.

The system will always be gamed on occasion. You can't prevent that. But you can make it as fair as possible.

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01-12-2009, 09:28 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Respect Your Edler View Post
That's exactly my problem with the system. The organization should be punished for purposely sucking, especially when they get rewarded at the expense of the Edmontons of the world. There are teams that try and fail to be competitve, and they get punished with mediocrity.
If the NHL went with this system Pittsburgh would no longer have a team, and both Washington and Chicago would be among the worst teams in the league, without much of a chance of getting better.

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01-12-2009, 09:39 PM
  #72
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If the NHL went with this system Pittsburgh would no longer have a team, and both Washington and Chicago would be among the worst teams in the league, without much of a chance of getting better.
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Originally Posted by cptjeff View Post
But then you get teams trying to be mediocre, and will succeed, and in the meantime, the genuinely bad teams will get worse.

The system will always be gamed on occasion. You can't prevent that. But you can make it as fair as possible.
You can still favour the bottom teams, but the current formula does it by too much. Last place should not be a guaranteed top 2 pick.

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01-12-2009, 09:39 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by cptjeff View Post
That's not what I heard about them. I had heard that either could have gone number one, and Kane was touted as a step below Crosby, but not by too much.

But again, details. What would the reaction be here if the Flyers slipped to 5th?
2007 was considered a weak draft because it featured no elite prospects like Crosby or Malkin (at the time). No way was Kane considered to be barely below Crosby.

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.c...0390/index.htm

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Old
01-13-2009, 09:30 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
The DRAFT (not lottery) if I remember came into effect quite some time ago and was for one of the main reasons Montreal dominating the quebec junior signings, true?
No

im not even gonna bring out the facts

research them yourself, since you're so smart and know all about history

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Old
01-13-2009, 12:28 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Canuckaholic19 View Post
Not the lottery itself just the results.
That's essentially how the NBA does it now. The NBA does the 14 ball/probability chart drawing behind closed doors in front of representatives from every team. Then they bring the ordered envelopes to their TV set where there are one rep each from each team (these guys don't know the results yet), and they announce the order.

The actual lottery is not going to be TV friendly. They draw four balls out of fourteen. The winning combination might be 7, 2, 8, 3. Whichever team was assigned that combination wins. The NBA no longer does the "ping pong ball with a team's logo" on it method.

The NBA lottery is a more compelling for TV since the first three spots are up for grabs. Whereas the NHL only has one "winner" and it's easily determinable once the expected order doesn't happen.

I hate the NHL for trying to imitate the NBA by doing their lottery show exactly the same. I'm all for them showcasing prospects and doing some hoopla about who won the lottery, but don't do a one by one countdown of the picks when there's only one winner and we'll know exactly which spot they have.

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