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Debunking Some Myths About The Current State Of The Columbus Blue Jackets

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01-11-2009, 09:19 PM
  #1
Viqsi
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Debunking Some Myths About The Current State Of The Columbus Blue Jackets

There seem to be a few persistent myths and legends popping up about the Blue Jackets and what sorts of deals they would be inclined to make. For the sake of preventing myself and others from having to repeat the explanations over and over, I am concentrating them in a single, easily-referenced thread.

So, with that said...

Myth #1: Columbus is willing and able to trade any of Brassard, Voracek, Filatov, Russell, and/or Mason.

Scott Howson has, repeatedly and in public, stated that he will not accept a deal including one of these five. He has also stated repeatedly that he feels our long term strategy (building up enough regular young talent to be a frequent playoff contender, since we can't exactly buy our way in) means that the majority of our talent must come from within the organization, due to issues relating to cost of assets, development time, and team chemistry. The Big Five (as I've been referring to them; you may also see "Big Four" from before Russell was a confirmed part of this group) are all major parts of that strategy, and so he's not going to trade them. Yes, all five. None of them will be traded. That's it. Period. End of story. Stop asking.


Myth #2: Any player not on that list or otherwise explicitly mentioned by Howson is available and/or being shopped around (in particular, Rick Nash).

This is the most common followup made by folks after hearing Myth #1 refuted, and it's starting to annoy people. Why, you ask?

Well...
Ray Schero has not at any point stated that Sidney Crosby is not on the trading block.
Doug Wilson has not at any point stated that Joe Thornton is not on the trading block.
Ken Holland has not at any point stated that Pavel Datsyuk or Nik Lidstrom are not on the trading block.

Does that automatically mean they're up for grabs, or are being shopped around?

Of course not. Don't be absurd. Nash, in particular, is currently the team captain and is on pace for a career year; it is exceptionally unlikely he will be traded. A deal isn't impossible, but it'd be so unlikely that it's probably not worth discussing.


Myth #3: The Blue Jackets' 1st round pick is easily available.

Actually, no it's not - and this is not without some controversy among CBJ fans, believe you me. Howson has, again, publicly stated that the 1st will only be traded for a young player that can help us in the long term. He has not, however, stated what precisely would qualify. CBJ fans feel that someone like Nik Antropov or Antoine Vermette would qualify, but we frankly don't know. But someone 30+ is probably not going to cut it. Yes, unfortunately for us, that may well include Kaberle. Oh well.


Myth #4: The Jackets are absolutely desperate to make the playoffs, and so will happily/grudgingly take whatever overpayment offer you have.

The Jackets franchise is able to survive several more years without a playoff appearance, although that would stretch its resources to the breaking point. We have very committed local ownership, a very good lease in a privately financed arena, and Columbus is the only growing major city in Ohio, with a diverse economy that has withstood several depressions (including the Great Depression). The Blue Jackets are not in immediate danger, although there are definite warning signs. Don't confuse ticket sales issues with "they'll be playing in KC next year if they don't make the playoffs".

Therefore, your proposal for those last few rental assets for any of the Big Five plus our 1st does not become any more justified because "the Jackets need to make the playoffs". Sorry.


Myth #5: Howson isn't willing to give up anything.

This is code for "oh, damnit, Howson really meant it when he said he's not trading the Big Five!" (See Myth #1 above). We've got a lot of assets, but folks are obsessed with the major bluechippers. Past them, we've got a few decent prospects (Mayorov, Goloubef, Russell, Plekhanov, Sestito, and so forth) and a few roster players (such as Klesla, Modin, Leclaire, and probably a few others I can't remember off the top of my head). We don't have much in the way of top-flight assets we can afford to give away, though, given the long-term plan (again, see Myth #1 above), and so major trades for major assets are not likely.


Myth #6: The Jackets must trade for our player X, because they need what our player X provides. Therefore the (usually very high) price for X must be accepted by the Jackets.

This most commonly comes up with trade proposals for folks like Tomas Kaberle and Jason Spezza. Yes, we need offensive D pretty badly - but that doesn't mean that Kaberle is the only option available to us (and if we keep our 1st rounder, we can target that area). Yes, we could really use a #1 center - but Spezza in particular is probably not a good trade for reasons I'm not going to detail here (they mostly involve contract cost and character), and we've got a fairly decent prospect who has shown he can handle it anyways (Brassard, although he's unfortunately out for the season). We have several possible trading partners for what we need; your special player is by no means required.


Myth #7: By dismissing many of these proposals, Jackets fans are showing that they're deluded into thinking what they have is enough. Don't you people realize you need our players?

Um. Yes. We are aware that we have holes in our lineup. That doesn't mean we're willing to be fleeced, or that we're about to forget about what Howson has stated, or what some of our prospects are capable of, or what happened to Atlanta for their playoff run. We'd love to see a trade happen - but we also don't want to give up what looks like a really bright future.

Naturally, opinions on who/what is and is not expendable vary wildly between fans; there's more than a few that feel that the Big Five shouldn't be off-limits, for example. Heck, everybody has their favorite Big Five prospect that they feel we can afford to get rid of, if absolutely necessary. (Mine's Voracek, in case you're wondering. ) But we're trying to be realistic as to what will and will not happen.


New Addition:
Myth #8: By being unwilling to trade the above noted assets, the Jackets are showing that they're trying to shortchange everybody else for their stars/major trade assets.

No; that just means that those stars are likely out of our price range, unless we can figure out something really special. Kind of sucks sometimes (believe me, I'd personally love to see Kaberle in union blue, for example), but that's the position we're in.

And yes, there's disagreement among CBJ fans on this issue too; several are similarly convinced that we need those star players, despite the cost, and others think that this is unnecessary desperation. For better or worse, Howson seems to be in the latter camp.


Another New Addition:
Myth #9: Columbus has plenty of cap space, and so is able to take on your albatross contract (or somewhat large contract) so long as the deal is otherwise fair.

In 90% of cases (particularly Scott Gomez, although Nylander has also come up), that's not true. If your contract extends past next year - i.e. covers 2010-2011 or 2011-2012 - then it'll break the long-term strategy. Right now, the only "albatross contract" we arguably have is Modin's, and that goes away before those two years.

Why those two years in particular? In 2010-2011 we resign Nash, Brassard, Klesla, and Russell. In 2011-2012 we resign Filatov, Voracek, Hejda, and Mason. Oh, and there's a few other roleplayers and/or prospects that come up in those two years that are of value (Boll and Dorsett in 10-11, Murray and maybe Leclaire and/or Mayorov in 11-12).

So in theory we could do cap relief, but only for contracts for this year and next year. And frankly, there's not many of those that folks are worried about. So it's easier to just say "no, we can't do it." (And yes, I recognize that there's times when such players could potentially contribute long-term to our core, so it's not as though such a trade is impossible - but folks who are doing well like that are rarely in these proposals. )


Here's hoping that this helps contribute to the education of folks on this board, and reduces the number of repetitive arguments brought against CBJ fans' dismissal of certain trade proposals.

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Last edited by Viqsi: 02-13-2009 at 11:02 AM. Reason: it's officially official - Russell is in the same "non-tradable" group as the 'original' Big Four
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Old
01-11-2009, 09:22 PM
  #2
Rickety Cricket
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To SJ

Nash
Brassard
Voracek
Filatov
Mason
1st in 2009


To Columbus

Goc
Semenov
Plihal
3rd in 09


close?

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:22 PM
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I read some, but got too bored to finish.

Is Kris RUssell available? What would it take to get him in Boston?

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:23 PM
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Howson for Waddell? We will throw in chris thorburn

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:24 PM
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Doug19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruinsfan1 View Post
I read some, but got too bored to finish.

Is Kris RUssell available? What would it take to get him in Boston?
Would Savard be available in a package?

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:24 PM
  #6
Pierre Dagenais
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tl;dr

To toronto : Filatov

To CLB : Antropov

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post


Myth #3: The Blue Jackets' 1st round pick is easily available.

Actually, no it's not - and this is not without some controversy among CBJ fans, believe you me. Howson has, again, publicly stated that the 1st will only be traded for a young player that can help us in the long term. He has not, however, stated what precisely would qualify. CBJ fans feel that someone like Nik Antropov or Antoine Vermette would qualify, but we frankly don't know. But someone 30+ is probably not going to cut it. Yes, unfortunately for us, that may well include Kaberle. Oh well.
So far when I see proposals such as

Kubina for Sestito(sp), Backman and 09 1st

Columbus fans seem to like that offer and are gladly willing to take it. Is it because of Kubina's right hand shot, or do you need that offensive dman?

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:24 PM
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wej20
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No one likes a whiner

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:26 PM
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Death of a Martian
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Columbus still has a team?

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:29 PM
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AddMan3001
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All solid points. I think if people took these into consideration when making CBJ related trade proposals, there would be a lot less flaming going on in those threads.

Now lets see a T.O. / CBJ proposal with these in mind!

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:29 PM
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officeglen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Murderin Murphy View Post
To SJ

Nash
Brassard
Voracek
Filatov
Mason
1st in 2009


To Columbus

Goc
Semenov
Plihal
3rd in 09


close?
Yes, but since the Jackets are absolutely desperate to make the playoffs, they are willing to give up player X too.

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougRiffle View Post
Would Savard be available in a package?
With Savard comes Filatov territory.

I could see Bergeron being available depending on Kessel/Krejci's RFA offers.

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:42 PM
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Viqsi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EllisToLeafsNation View Post
So far when I see proposals such as

Kubina for Sestito(sp), Backman and 09 1st

Columbus fans seem to like that offer and are gladly willing to take it. Is it because of Kubina's right hand shot, or do you need that offensive dman?
Yes to both. Although there's a lot of doubt as to whether or not such a trade would happen thanks to Howson's pronouncements (we're concerned he'd consider Kubina to be too old).

I'd pounce on it, but it's not my call.

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Rogers View Post
Howson for Waddell? We will throw in chris thorburn
We would've traded you MacLean, but he's a UFA now.

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:43 PM
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See, here's the problem. GMs lie. You can't be sure of anything. Hell, you say Spezza is wrong for the Jackets when Hitchcock believes he could become the next Yzerman.

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:47 PM
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Link or it never happened.

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Old
01-11-2009, 09:57 PM
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If he expects to get a top line player which has been rumoured, then he has to give up one of the "Big4" or a 1st rounder...

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01-11-2009, 10:05 PM
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What's with all these CBJ threads? There's no more proposals including CBJ players than lots of other teams. Do we really need a second thread outlining the state of the franchise?

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Old
01-11-2009, 10:06 PM
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What is this "ice hockey" team in columbus you speak of?

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Old
01-11-2009, 10:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Murderin Murphy View Post
To SJ

Nash
Brassard
Voracek
Filatov
Mason
1st in 2009


To Columbus

Goc
Semenov
Plihal
3rd in 09


close?
Throw in Russell and the 2010 1st from Columbus to even it up.

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Old
01-11-2009, 10:22 PM
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I've never heard of player X so I don't know how he's relevant.

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Old
01-11-2009, 10:25 PM
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Whine on CBJ fan.

No one is untouchable in the NHL, I repeat no one.

What about Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin..etc you ask?

What if someone offered Shero, Ovechkin, Semin, Backis, Green, 1st round pick for Crosby, you think Shero would reject. NOPE.

Those 4 prospects you named are great, but for the right price everyone is available. Howson was simply pointing out it's not in his plans to trade any of these guys for any run of the mill guy, but I think if he's offered the right guy (i.e Kaberle/Spezza) he'll have to decide if its worth parting with one of the supposed "big 4".

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Old
01-11-2009, 10:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruinsfan1 View Post
With Savard comes Filatov territory.

I could see Bergeron being available depending on Kessel/Krejci's RFA offers.
Bergeron gets about $.25 on the dollar if he gets dealt now. I think that CLM would be looking for more immediate help, and would be afraid of Bergeron's signicant salary commitment with his concussion issue.

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Old
01-11-2009, 11:05 PM
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I agree that everything you outlined is the public position of the jackets - no surprises there. But the fact is you have to give quality to get quality and I'm sure Howson realises that. Regardless of public statements, none of these guys have NTC's, so its still probably fair to include them in proposals in theory. I do agree that its unlikely they get dealt, but I'm sure that every GM that calls is asking about Voracek and Filatov, even just to test the waters.

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Old
01-11-2009, 11:09 PM
  #25
Viqsi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjun View Post
Whine on CBJ fan.

No one is untouchable in the NHL, I repeat no one.

What about Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin..etc you ask?

What if someone offered Shero, Ovechkin, Semin, Backis, Green, 1st round pick for Crosby, you think Shero would reject. NOPE.

Those 4 prospects you named are great, but for the right price everyone is available. Howson was simply pointing out it's not in his plans to trade any of these guys for any run of the mill guy, but I think if he's offered the right guy (i.e Kaberle/Spezza) he'll have to decide if its worth parting with one of the supposed "big 4".
Oh for... :

Those prices are generally unreasonably high for the folks attempting to acquire, and so generally don't get looked at. You end up gutting most of your roster to get a star who suddenly has no supporting cast, or (worse) someone who might be a superstar, or might be a colossal bust. Therefore, in general, with very rare exceptions (i.e. when ownership gets nasty), THEY DO NOT HAPPEN.

I shouldn't have to explain that one. I really shouldn't.

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