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Tomas Kaberle

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Old
01-23-2009, 04:43 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by teleman View Post
Don't know which Leaf fans you've been speaking to. Some may overrate Kaberle but the vast majority of Leaf fans see Kaberle as quality offensive defender not even close to being a generational talent. Considering his contract and the value given to quality offensive D I'd say more of the trade proposals made by non Leaf fans undervalue him than the trade proposals made by Leaf fans overvalue him. Most of the trade proposals by both sides are poorly thought out.
very true, part of this is the preponderance of young leaf fans posting trades that significantly over rate Tomas, part of it also has to do with my personal preference for well rounded defenders as opposed to pseudo forwards who play defense which is not to say thats what Kaberle is, clearly he is not. You are also correct in saying that Kaberle's salary increases his value. I could definitely see a playoff team give a first, a top prospect and a roster player for him, but theres a big difference between that and many of the proposals Ive read.

McPhillip thank you for the honesty and clarity of your vision. and DougGilmour, that was not a knock on you. you love your team and you fiercely defend it, that is great and very commendable. You and I were on record back when Tucker was resigned, that a rebuild was needed, so its not like we cant see eye to eye, I just think youre blinded by Tomas' exceptional skills and fail to see that he's not Defensively on a par with the elite defenders of this league..... he's a very good player, just not top 10, top 25 no doubt,
but no where near top ten

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01-23-2009, 04:47 PM
  #102
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you need to be rude and abbrassive in this forum!!!
ISLES SUCK, theyd be lucky if they could get Kaberle for Okposo and their 1st this year.

There, thats settled.

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01-23-2009, 05:06 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
you need to be rude and abbrassive in this forum!!!
ISLES SUCK, theyd be lucky if they could get Kaberle for Okposo and their 1st this year.

There, thats settled.
Great... now you've got me thinking about the trades Mad Mike made.
If Mad Mike was still in the Isles organization you would be hearing Jonas Frogurt for Okposo and the Isles 1st

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01-23-2009, 07:09 PM
  #104
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If you need to say things about "credibility", you pretty much ensure you don't really have an argument.

Real arguments have things called "facts" attached to them.

Fact: Kaberle was held off the penalty kill in favor of Andy Wozniewski. He still never takes the #1 pk unit, just getting spot duty on the #2. The two post lockout seasons that Kaberle anchored the pk, the Leafs finished #26 and #27 in the league pking.
Fact: Kaberle is not trusted against the opposing team's top line.
Fact: Kaberle rarely plays key last minutes of games, and even when he does Toronto's history with protecting the lead is terrible in recent memory.
Fact: Kaberle's +/- has been among the worst on his team this season, just like last season. +/- relative to one's own team is a very telling stat; for all of Kaberle's offense, the other team has even more success scoring when he is on the ice than Toronto does.

The argument, occasionally trotted out, that he is kept off of that because the Leafs can afford to use more defensive oriented defensemen is laughable in the face of just how bad the Leafs have been defensively ever since Kaberle became a key part of the team. How many true top defensemen have ever been on a team that was #30 defensively?

Kaberle is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league. But his inability to play good defense (and whether or not some Leaf or even non Leaf fans believe I am right about that, the last two Leaf COACHES agree with me) removes him from discussion of the league's true best defensemen, most of whom play both pp and pk, because they, unlike Kaberle, are complete players.


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01-23-2009, 07:11 PM
  #105
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Kaberle is no different than Sandis Ozolinsh really. Both great offensive defenseman and can be valuable members of any team, but I wouldn't trust them to play key minutes against the opposing team's top players.

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01-23-2009, 07:15 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Peter Griffin View Post
Kaberle is no different than Sandis Ozolinsh really. Both great offensive defenseman and can be valuable members of any team, but I wouldn't trust them to play key minutes against the opposing team's top players.
That's a fair comparison, though only about through age 28, because after that Ozolinsh got derailed by injuries and never again cracked the 50 point plateau.

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01-23-2009, 07:17 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
That's a fair comparison, though only about through age 28, because after that Ozolinsh got derailed by injuries and never again cracked the 50 point plateau.
He also entered the substance abuse program in 2005 so it wouldn't surprise me if he was struggling with an addiction around the early part of 2000's or perhaps even sooner.

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01-23-2009, 07:19 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
That's a fair comparison, though only about through age 28, because after that Ozolinsh got derailed by injuries and never again cracked the 50 point plateau.
I still think Housley the best comparison. Kaberle can't skate quite as fast as Housley but both are puck controllers who are great at the transition game. Also, both are softer than butter and complete non-entities defensively.

Ozolinsh had better goalscoring ability than Kaberle (or Housley, for that matter), and less pure offensive vision.

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01-23-2009, 07:22 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Crazy_Ike View Post
If you need to say things about "credibility", you pretty much ensure you don't really have an argument.

Real arguments have things called "facts" attached to them.

Fact: Kaberle was held off the penalty kill in favor of Andy Wozniewski. He still never takes the #1 pk unit, just getting spot duty on the #2. The two post lockout seasons that Kaberle anchored the pk, the Leafs finished #26 and #27 in the league pking.
Fact: Kaberle is not trusted against the opposing team's top line.
Fact: Kaberle rarely plays key last minutes of games, and even when he does Toronto's history with protecting the lead is terrible in recent memory.
Fact: Kaberle's +/- has been among the worst on his team this season, just like last season. +/- relative to one's own team is a very telling stat; for all of Kaberle's offense, the other team has even more success scoring when he is on the ice than Toronto does.

The argument, occasionally trotted out, that he is kept off of that because the Leafs can afford to use more defensive oriented defensemen is laughable in the face of just how bad the Leafs have been defensively ever since Kaberle became a key part of the team. How many true top defensemen have ever been on a team that was #30 defensively?

Kaberle is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league. But his inability to play good defense (and whether or not some Leaf or even non Leaf fans believe I am right about that, the last two Leaf COACHES agree with me) removes him from discussion of the league's true best defensemen, most of whom play both pp and pk, because they, unlike Kaberle, are complete players.
Agree with pretty much all your points. While he certainly is fairly one-dimensional, his superb offensive ability does warrant him being talked about as a top 20-25 defender in my opinion.

I see Kaberle being a lot like Campbell. A tremendously skilled and slick point-producing machine from the backend, but one who's not going to be manning your PK or anything (see Campbell's 0:27 SH TOI/game).

Now if Kaberle were a rental, a deal like what Campbell received last trade deadline, 1st round pick + Steve Bernier, would be very appropriate.

Now when factoring in his contract status of 2 more years at a palty $4.25M cap hit, that increases his trade value quite a bit, considering the open market values defensemen of his ilk at $6.5-7M/year.

In my opinion, Kaberle is a top 20-25 defenseman like the Isles poster mentioned above, but that due to the contract situation, Kaberle's value as an asset will be even higher than that.

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01-23-2009, 08:36 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
you need to be rude and abbrassive in this forum!!!
ISLES SUCK, theyd be lucky if they could get Kaberle for Okposo and their 1st this year.

There, thats settled.
Actually, the leafs would get lucky if they landed Okposo and John Tavares

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01-23-2009, 08:40 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
Agree with pretty much all your points. While he certainly is fairly one-dimensional, his superb offensive ability does warrant him being talked about as a top 20-25 defender in my opinion.

I see Kaberle being a lot like Campbell. A tremendously skilled and slick point-producing machine from the backend, but one who's not going to be manning your PK or anything (see Campbell's 0:27 SH TOI/game).

Now if Kaberle were a rental, a deal like what Campbell received last trade deadline, 1st round pick + Steve Bernier, would be very appropriate.

Now when factoring in his contract status of 2 more years at a palty $4.25M cap hit, that increases his trade value quite a bit, considering the open market values defensemen of his ilk at $6.5-7M/year.

In my opinion, Kaberle is a top 20-25 defenseman like the Isles poster mentioned above, but that due to the contract situation, Kaberle's value as an asset will be even higher than that.
exactly though much better articulated than my own post, well done

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01-23-2009, 08:43 PM
  #112
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At the end whatever Burke gets for Tomas Kaberle (that's if he ever trades Tomas), would be the true value for Kabs. Everything else right now is pure speculation

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01-23-2009, 08:58 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
At the end whatever Burke gets for Tomas Kaberle (that's if he ever trades Tomas), would be the true value for Kabs. Everything else right now is pure speculation
everything is relative,it is quite possible that Burke could acquire more at the deadline than he could right now, or perhaps a team with cup aspirations like the Wings, could lose a Lidstrom for an extended period and decide to overpay for Kaberle. that would not mean that that was a true measure of his value. It would simply reflect his value in that situation.

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01-23-2009, 08:59 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Kingjordan View Post
Just curious what everyone though his value was... Cause every Mapleleafs offer has him in it but the value him so much..

So wondering what does everyone think his true value is?

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/team/app?p...e=page&tab=prf
He was brought up in a trade idea with the oilers giving up Grebs and Gilbert. I said his stats would mke him the 5th dman on the oiler team.

Others argued that it was his teamates that were bringing him down.

If that was the case there results would be worse and brougt up by him.

Here are the facts.

//Simple test of your theory is that if the other dmen are bringing him down there stats will clearly be worse.

Player----[Qual of Comp]----[Qual of teammates]
Van Ryan----[.02]----[.02]
Schenn----[.01]----[.07]
Finger----[-.01]----[-.04]
Kubina----[-.02]----[.07]
Kaberle----[-.02]----[.08]
White----[-.03]----[.01]
Stralman----[-.03]----[.08]

So kaberle, kubina and white face the softest competition. Kaberle does it with the best teammates. Its the kind of set-up you give a rookie. Oh wait Schenn and Van ryan are facing the toughest comp. With this kind of soft protection Kaberle must be terring it up versus the other dmen.

Lets check!

Player----[Even pts/60]----[Goals against/60]
van ryan----[1.23]----[2.96]
stralman----[1.02]----[2.65]
White ----[1.00]----[2.43]
Finger----[.83]----[2.81]
Kubina----[.82]----[3.05]
Kaberle----[.76]----[3.19]
Schenn----[.30]----[2.54]

Kaberle is the 6th best points producer at ev on the team. He is 7th best Ga on the team. 10th worst dman in the league.

So we have a dman who faces the softest minutes with the best teamates, Produces the 2nd worst ev pts rate and is one of the worst defensive dmen in the league.//

He is the 15th best PPpts producer in the league.

I know what he is worth.

But there will be a GM at the trade deadline who is so desperate for a PP Dman that the EV nightmare that is Kaberle wont matter.

Prospect, Low end roster player, and A 1st is the going rate.

Only thing that could make it worse if is if any of the Dmen who are above the league average in all offensive critical categories are available.

For an offensive Dman you want someone who can run the power play, Be productive at EV and is not an EV strength lability.

Here are the league rough (mean) average values for the categories:
1. Above 3.30 PPPT/60
2. Above .7 EVPT/60
3. Below 2.85 EVGA/60

Of the Dmen in the league I wondered how many met all three Categories

There is 21 of them:
Pronger,
Chara,
Wideman,
Spacek,
Campbell,
Keith,
Liles,
Kronwall,
Lidstrom,
Rafalski,
Souray,
Grebeshkov,
Gilbert,
Mcabe,
Bouwmeister,
Markov,
Suter,
Kuba,
Blake,
Boyle,
and Green.

There are hints that the guys in bold may be available.

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01-23-2009, 09:58 PM
  #115
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What the hell is this?

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01-23-2009, 09:58 PM
  #116
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Its not just purely based upon stats. This isnt fantasy hockey.

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01-23-2009, 10:15 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Its not just purely based upon stats. This isnt fantasy hockey.
So if I say he is the 15th best PP pTS producing Dman in the league your going to tell me I am completely wrong.

He is an elite PP speialist who use to be a high end Ev points producing Dman with slightly less than average Defensive capabilities. He is getting older.

He is still the the elite PP guy. but wilson is giving him 17:00 min a night against the soft competition with the best offensive teamates. Defensively there are only 9 Dmen worse than him this year.

It is what it is. I have been watching him this year. QWilson has called him out on it.

The problem is he might just need to get out of toronto like McCabe: who went from being a Toronto wiping boy to being one of the 21 Dmen Above the league average in a three critical Offensive Dmen categories: Ev points production, Ev GA, And PP pts production.

Kaberle is only 30 he should have 6 more years of Elite PP and Ev Pts production with above average Defensive skill.

Just not this year on this team.

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01-23-2009, 10:30 PM
  #118
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Whatever dude, I have no idea what youre talking about. Just because you have devised some crazy formula to look at a guys numbers doesnt translate into some universal law of how to judge a hockey player.

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01-23-2009, 10:39 PM
  #119
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He actually did some pretty good work... why criticize him.

Gotta keep an open mind and while you don't have to base your entire opinion on it, it's certainly something that at least warrants consideration.

Nice research oilerbear. From one stats buff to another, much appreciated.

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01-23-2009, 10:48 PM
  #120
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Hey all the power to him, and yes he did a lot of work. But by his reasoning, as he said earlier, Kaberle's stats would make him the 5th dman on the oilers. Thats why you cant rely only on stats.

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01-23-2009, 10:48 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
He was brought up in a trade idea with the oilers giving up Grebs and Gilbert. I said his stats would mke him the 5th dman on the oiler team.

Others argued that it was his teamates that were bringing him down.

If that was the case there results would be worse and brougt up by him.

Here are the facts.

//Simple test of your theory is that if the other dmen are bringing him down there stats will clearly be worse.

Player----[Qual of Comp]----[Qual of teammates]
Van Ryan----[.02]----[.02]
Schenn----[.01]----[.07]
Finger----[-.01]----[-.04]
Kubina----[-.02]----[.07]
Kaberle----[-.02]----[.08]
White----[-.03]----[.01]
Stralman----[-.03]----[.08]

So kaberle, kubina and white face the softest competition. Kaberle does it with the best teammates. Its the kind of set-up you give a rookie. Oh wait Schenn and Van ryan are facing the toughest comp. With this kind of soft protection Kaberle must be terring it up versus the other dmen.

Lets check!

Player----[Even pts/60]----[Goals against/60]
van ryan----[1.23]----[2.96]
stralman----[1.02]----[2.65]
White ----[1.00]----[2.43]
Finger----[.83]----[2.81]
Kubina----[.82]----[3.05]
Kaberle----[.76]----[3.19]
Schenn----[.30]----[2.54]

Kaberle is the 6th best points producer at ev on the team. He is 7th best Ga on the team. 10th worst dman in the league.

So we have a dman who faces the softest minutes with the best teamates, Produces the 2nd worst ev pts rate and is one of the worst defensive dmen in the league.//

He is the 15th best PPpts producer in the league.

I know what he is worth.

But there will be a GM at the trade deadline who is so desperate for a PP Dman that the EV nightmare that is Kaberle wont matter.

Prospect, Low end roster player, and A 1st is the going rate.

Only thing that could make it worse if is if any of the Dmen who are above the league average in all offensive critical categories are available.

For an offensive Dman you want someone who can run the power play, Be productive at EV and is not an EV strength lability.

Here are the league rough (mean) average values for the categories:
1. Above 3.30 PPPT/60
2. Above .7 EVPT/60
3. Below 2.85 EVGA/60

Of the Dmen in the league I wondered how many met all three Categories

There is 21 of them:
Pronger,
Chara,
Wideman,
Spacek,
Campbell,
Keith,
Liles,
Kronwall,
Lidstrom,
Rafalski,
Souray,
Grebeshkov,
Gilbert,
Mcabe,
Bouwmeister,
Markov,
Suter,
Kuba,
Blake,
Boyle,
and Green.

There are hints that the guys in bold may be available.
.. wow i don't even know where to start... u do everything by one year it seems ever hear of a good/bad year? do the same stats from the lock out and then see him in the top really fast

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01-23-2009, 10:48 PM
  #122
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I would expect value similar to what Brian Campbell got last year. A first round pick and then a roster player. Buf got a first and Bernier last year, he was a young 2nd/ 3rd liner. I would expect the leafs to get something close to this in return. If they don't get the roster player then I am sure it will have to be a fairly highly touted prospect.
Yes but they got that as a UFA. kabby is signed for another season. which raises his value because they can then trade him off as a UFA if they dont sign him.

So really his value is higher then Cambell and boyle.

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01-23-2009, 10:58 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Ducati1098VII View Post
Yes but they got that as a UFA. kabby is signed for another season. which raises his value because they can then trade him off as a UFA if they dont sign him.

So really his value is higher then Cambell and boyle.
Hes signed for two more season. I think Boyle is a better Dman than Kaberle is though, but he gets paid a lot more.

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01-23-2009, 11:53 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Hes signed for two more season. I think Boyle is a better Dman than Kaberle is though, but he gets paid a lot more.
2 more seasons even better.

Thats what makes kabby worth so much more.

Hes a great dman (hasnt been the same since that elbow to the face though.. leaf fans probably noticed this)

He has an amazing contract for his skillset. He is not just a rental such as brian was. though his NTC would not let the other team move him when his contract is up unless theres another stipulation in there.

But his value even if less skillful then cambell or boyle is higher. As hes on a solid contract for multiple seasons compared to with cambell or boyle (sorry if spelt their names wrong)

Hes not an investment in just this seasons playoff run but with subsequent runs in 2010 and 2011.

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01-24-2009, 01:38 AM
  #125
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This thread, and Oilerbear's post, should be linked any time some deluded fan tries to claim Kaberle as one of the league's bleeding edge elite defensemen ever again. Kudos, there's very little more that needs to be said. Opinions pale in the harsh light of factual truth.

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