I'm a Laurier student that covers the team for the Athletic Department so i have a pretty good grasp on the squad's potential
You can't rule the Hawks out by any means, the #1 offense in the country ALWAYS has a chance to win you ANY game. MacDougald showed 2(?) years ago he can steal games when they matter, he's looked up and down so far this year, lets in some weak ones against the UOIT's and York's but comes back strong with acrobatic performances against Waterloo
The D will be a problem, i don't see anyone back there that can really lock anyone down, trying to contain Alberta or UNB or even a Saskatchewan or UQTR i dont think is possible with the undersized, offensive d-core we have. Simply put we HAVE to outscore the opponents.
We picked up some toughness is Jarram, since we don't have alot of jam and fight in us, but i dunno how much he can do, he's no Phaneuf out there, more of a Laraque not being allowed to drop the gloves
If i can posit a darkhorse though i'd say U Waterloo will shock some people
They're so bloody stingy, they're quick and fiesty, everyone on their roster is a pest, and they just picked up Pier-Olivier Pelletier (2nd round pick) so their goaltending will be prime
They'll beat you 2-1 in double OT or 1-0 and give you 13 shots on goal in the entire game, think Minnesota Wild during their playoff run
Even though they can't fight they'll send out their skill-less 4th liners and knock your 1st liners off their game, they have some real punks on their roster and dont play a very attractive game, but it's effective
I've seen Western this year and haven't been impressed, just doesnt seem like they have that one area in their game that will win them games in the playoffs
Lakehead comes here to Waterloo this weekend, biggest weekend in the OUA this year undoubtedly
Coach Nobes though talked to me about how he really doesnt want home-ice advantage vs Lakehead in the playoffs, it's better for you if Lakehead has the advantage, something about how since they're 3-game playoffs, you have to go up there for game 1, and you're beat tired cause of the trip and just the all around crappiness of Thunder Bay, while the Wolves have spent an entire week relaxing at home. Then Lakehead thumps you, and they only have to win 1 more game in your barn, and they're well rested since they had a lovely relaxing week, and then just a single trip down, whereas you went all the way up there, got trounced, then came all the way back
Waterloo Warriors = dark horse for University Cup?
here me out...
currently ranked 10th in the country, the warriors have been fringe top 10 all year.
we recently picked up goalie Pier Pelletier who was picked 59th overall by PHX in 05, but a nagging hip injury really prevented him from ever making an impact.
since this pick up, warriors have literally been on fire going 6-1 including a shutout of laurier and a weekend sweep of lakehead.
do they have the caliber offense of alberta or unb? likely not. but they've shown they can handle highler ranked teams like laurier and lakehead with relative ease, and this hot goalie might be enough to carry them at least to a finals berth.
It wouldn't surprise me if they made a run. Obviously I haven't seen them play this year but they seem to be peaking at the right time....and getting Pelletier was a great move. As we know...teams with good defense/goaltending usually go a long way come playoff time.
Last edited by UNB Bruins Fan: 02-06-2009 at 02:06 PM.
I'm a Laurier student that covers the team for the Athletic Department so i have a pretty good grasp on the squad's potential
You can't rule the Hawks out by any means, the #1 offense in the country ALWAYS has a chance to win you ANY game. MacDougald showed 2(?) years ago he can steal games when they matter, he's looked up and down so far this year, lets in some weak ones against the UOIT's and York's but comes back strong with acrobatic performances against Waterloo
The D will be a problem, i don't see anyone back there that can really lock anyone down, trying to contain Alberta or UNB or even a Saskatchewan or UQTR i dont think is possible with the undersized, offensive d-core we have. Simply put we HAVE to outscore the opponents.
We picked up some toughness is Jarram, since we don't have alot of jam and fight in us, but i dunno how much he can do, he's no Phaneuf out there, more of a Laraque not being allowed to drop the gloves
If i can posit a darkhorse though i'd say U Waterloo will shock some people
They're so bloody stingy, they're quick and fiesty, everyone on their roster is a pest, and they just picked up Pier-Olivier Pelletier (2nd round pick) so their goaltending will be prime
They'll beat you 2-1 in double OT or 1-0 and give you 13 shots on goal in the entire game, think Minnesota Wild during their playoff run
Even though they can't fight they'll send out their skill-less 4th liners and knock your 1st liners off their game, they have some real punks on their roster and dont play a very attractive game, but it's effective
I've seen Western this year and haven't been impressed, just doesnt seem like they have that one area in their game that will win them games in the playoffs
Lakehead comes here to Waterloo this weekend, biggest weekend in the OUA this year undoubtedly
Coach Nobes though talked to me about how he really doesnt want home-ice advantage vs Lakehead in the playoffs, it's better for you if Lakehead has the advantage, something about how since they're 3-game playoffs, you have to go up there for game 1, and you're beat tired cause of the trip and just the all around crappiness of Thunder Bay, while the Wolves have spent an entire week relaxing at home. Then Lakehead thumps you, and they only have to win 1 more game in your barn, and they're well rested since they had a lovely relaxing week, and then just a single trip down, whereas you went all the way up there, got trounced, then came all the way back
Should be interesting
Should be interesting is right, the far-west is an extremely tight division. I think Laurier will pull of home ice advantage though, whether coach Nobes wants it or not. Second place is anyone’s guess …
I know the Laurier coach doesn’t like coming to Thunder Bay, he’s made no secret of that. I think he’s still miffed about last year when Laurier’s plane sat on the runway in Thunder Bay for an hour or so before a Friday night game … that and all the general crappiness of being in Thunder Bay, of course, makes for a rough trip. See, even if you win in Thunder Bay, you still pay a price …
I haven’t seen Western play this year so I can’t really comment on their chances, I know they’re rebuilding and have a lot of rookies. From what I’ve been told they’re still a good team but not as good as usual. I’ll know better in two weeks when they make the trip to Thunder Bay.
I do agree with your dark horse pick for the west. Waterloo has put together a good season so far, and with their mid season acquisition of goaltender Pier Pelletier they’ve become a contender for the oua west. I’m not impressed with their style of play though, it reminds me of how Brock played last year, clog up the lanes and collapse around the goalie, it’s not pretty to watch.
As for the oua east, I would not be surprised to see McGill make a strong playoff run – they’re the hottest team in the oua right now and have already beaten UQTR a couple of times. Hard to say how far they’ll go without net minder Mathieu Poitras though.
Lakehead played well at the Christmas tournament this year and showed some real grit winning 4 games in 4 nights. Talent wise, I think it’s fair to say they’ll be a bit behind other teams, but they do have enough skill to be competitive, and it only takes one game. The biggest problem for Lakehead right now is actually being able to ice a strong team due to injuries. As it sits, 6 players are out with injuries including Captain Andrew Brown. 3 players are gone for the season with 1 more not looking so good … they will be missing key players for the nationals. This year’s squad has more depth for sure, which will help, and home ice advantage will make a difference, no doubt, but I think Lakehead will need a bit of a miracle to get through both UNB and Alberta … hopefully net minder Chris Whitley can find some of that playoff magic he had in 2006
Yes, Waterloo is a dark horse, and yes goaltending is everything. Brock showed last year that game-stealing goaltending can get you to Nationals ... but then can be exposed by the top AUS and Canada West teams.
But to be fair, based on the last few UCups, any OUA team is a dark horse until they prove again that they can get by the AUS and Canada West teams ...
Yes, Waterloo is a dark horse, and yes goaltending is everything. Brock showed last year that game-stealing goaltending can get you to Nationals ... but then can be exposed by the top AUS and Canada West teams.
But to be fair, based on the last few UCups, any OUA team is a dark horse until they prove again that they can get by the AUS and Canada West teams ...
Two years ago Laurier beat AUS St. Fx in game one and lost in double overtime to #1 ranked Moncton in a game they were up until 50 seconds left, that would be pretty close to the OUA proving themselves in my mind...
The OUA is 5-16 head-to-head against other Conferences over the last five years at the University Cup and has been outscored 94-36.
This is why Canada West (three titles, Alberta 2005, 2006 and 2008) and AUS (two titles, X in 2004 and UNB in 2007) teams get more street cred from top ten voters then OUA schools.
Two years ago Laurier beat AUS St. Fx in game one and lost in double overtime to #1 ranked Moncton in a game they were up until 50 seconds left, that would be pretty close to the OUA proving themselves in my mind...
Well, here's the last five years:
[2004]
UNB 2-0, Alberta 1-1, Ottawa 0-2
St F-X 2-0, Dalhousie 1-1, York 0-2
Gold: St F-X beat UNB
Bronze: Dalhousie beat Alberta
AUS 3-0 v OUA
AUS 2-0 v CW
CW 1-0 v OUA
[2005]
Alberta 2-0, Manitoba 1-1, UQTR 0-2
Sask 2-0, Moncton 1-1, UWO 0-2
Gold: Alberta beat Sask
CW 3-0 v OUA
CW 1-0 v AUS
AUS 1-0 v OUA
[2006]
Alberta 2-0, McGill 1-1, Laurier 0-2
Lakehead 2-0, Sask 1-1, Acadia 0-2
Gold: Alberta beat Lakehead
If the CIS held four regionals followed by a "final 4" it might help out gain publicity and be somewhat more TV-friendly. Here's the plan:
* There would be 4 regionals with 4 teams in each. Each regional plays two semi-finals and a final.
* The seedings would be set so that semi-final match-ups would cross-over against other conferences. (Except that the Host v OUA 7th can't be avoided.)
* The AUS and CW would each send 4 teams and the OUA would send 7 teams. The 16th would be the host.
* Each regional winner would go to the Final Four, which would also have two sudden-death semi-finals and a final.
* The host of the Final Four would host one regional and be seeded 1st. (While the possibility would exist that the host would thus not qualify, at the same time they would host a regional the weekend before the final and would hopefully have pre-sold lots of tickets.)
* Each conference champion hosts another regional.
* The seedings for the Final Four would be set so as to promote cross-over matchups in the semi-finals and be based on national rankings and league standings. There be 4 possibilities:
1 - one conference with 4 teams: 1 v 4, 2 v 3
2 - two conferences with 2 teams each: highest from one v lowest from other
3 - one conference with 3 teams: 1 v 3, 2 v other conference rep
4 - one conference with 2 teams, two conferences with 1 team: the highest seed from the conference with 2 teams plays the lowest seed from outside its conference
Doesn't sound too bad of a plan, but you're forgetting the major thing.... CIS teams don't run on NHL budgets, a tournament like you're proposing would involve a lot more travel and a lot more expenses for the teams.
Two years ago Laurier beat AUS St. Fx in game one and lost in double overtime to #1 ranked Moncton in a game they were up until 50 seconds left, that would be pretty close to the OUA proving themselves in my mind...
Except Laurier used a trick play off the face-off late in regulation for the surprise goal to force overtime against StFX ... so label that squeaking out a win.
The following autumn Laurier was invited to Fredericton to play in UNB's Fall Classic, due to their strong play at Nationals, and they were hammered 10-2 by UNB and lost 4-0 to StFX.
This year Carleton came to the Fall Classic and were hammered 7-0 by UNB before rebounding to beat a rebuilding Dal team 7-3. UQTR came to Fredericton for two games a few weeks later and lost to UNB 4-3 and 3-2 in games where scores flattered the visitors - they were badly outshot and outplayed by UNB and only their goaltenders kept it close.
the Fall Classic as Foyle said, close games score wise, but UNB Fired 58 and 60 shots on goal both games, thats more shots on goal in a game than UNB has put on any AUS opponent this year Including STU and Dalhousie
Last year UNB beat Brock 6-1 at Nationals, and this same season Waxed off Laurier 10-2 in the pre season, that could have ended up much worst
2007 Nationals Defeating UQTR 6-0 and I believe that same season, in the pre season beat UQTR 5-0
In fact the only time I can remember UNB losing to an OUA school in recent memory was 4-3 to UQTR at the 2004 Nationals after Blowing a 3-1 lead and outshooting UQTR something to the tone of 57 to 21, again the Goalie stealing the game
In all due respect to the OUA anything can happen in hockey for sure, UNB outshot St FX this past weekend 43-19 only to lose 3-2 and ealier in the year suffered their worst lose of the season 5-2 to ST FX in the Xmen's rink, despite outshooting the Xmen around 45-15 I think it was? So yea a hot Goalie can definately steal the show, but theirs no question who the 2 stronger conferences are overall. Waterloo in my mind is definatley the favorite now to win the OUA, or Lakehead
Actually i remember Saskatchewan lose to UQTR at the 2007 Nationals, but everyone is smart to know the better team, I dont know what the shots on goal were, but when UQTR was leading at one point 1-0 the shots were something like 35-5 for saskatchewan, just a silly amount for a team like UQTR to only have 2 or 3 loses the entire season in the OUA
OUA Competitiveness at University Cup?
Here is a look at how OUA Schools have done against Alberta in the last seven Golden Bears-OUA School match-ups.
2007-08
Alberta 7 McGill 3
Shots 50-24
2005-06
Alberta 8-Laurier 2
Shots 51-21 Bears
Alberta 5-McGill 1
Shots 41-22 Bears
Alberta 3 Lakehead 2
Shots 40-26 Bears
2004-05
Alberta 11-UQTR O
Shots 52-22 Bears
2003-04
Alberta 7-Ottawa 3
Shots 41-21 Bears
2002-03
Alberta 4-York 0
Shots 60-25 Bears
See a trend?
Now all that being said it is my belief that Lakehead will be extremely difficult to beat at home.
All due respect to Waterloo, Laurier and even Western their current line-ups don't match up with UNB, Saint Mary's, Alberta or Saskatchewan.
But in a one-game event anything can happen.
Put it this way. Alberta has won five of the last 10 titles and didn't win in years that they had their two best teams; 2000-2001 and 2003-04.
Geez, Manitoba and Calgary have done better against Alberta than the whole OUA. I think the Bisons have beaten Alberta at some point in each of the last 4 years.
This year's tournament is hard to forecast because Lakehead seems to be having a rough year since they won their tournament.
I've combined all University Cup threads into this one. We do not need multiple threads on the University Cup, just like we don't need multiple threads on the Frozen Four.
Please do not post new University Cup threads. Any that are posted will be either merged with this or deleted. Thanks.
I have to agree with toxic. I haven't seen Lakehead play, but to put a non-ranked team, even as the host, as a possible contender for the CIS crown is a bit of a stretch. If I were forced to pick, I would go with UofA and both AUS teams with Laurier as a longshot. I'll go a bit further and suggest that Lakehead may get knocked off in the first round of playoffs.
Wouldn't have put them there if you saw them play last week, strong defense but thoroughly uninspired effort in the biggest weekend of their season
Didn't see their games vs. Laurier, if that is what you are reffering too. I have them at #3 almost based on home ice advantage, which is a huge advantage in these tournaments. Also their goaltending appears solid, statistically speaking anyway. We'll have to see what they do against Western this weekend. IMO this might be as big a test for them as Laurier, as Western are red hot having won 12 of last 13 or something.
But it would appear that some ranked teams are not performing up to par as we near the end of the reg. season; U of A losing to Regina and Lethbridge, UNB losing to X, UdeM has not looked convincing over their past 3-4 games exhibited by their recent OT loss to STU, SMU are very inconsistent despite having a potent offense - have not looked good despite their wins, and UQTR dropped games to Concordia and McGill recently. We'll have to wait and see...
Didn't see their games vs. Laurier, if that is what you are reffering too. I have them at #3 almost based on home ice advantage, which is a huge advantage in these tournaments. Also their goaltending appears solid, statistically speaking anyway. We'll have to see what they do against Western this weekend. IMO this might be as big a test for them as Laurier, as Western are red hot having won 12 of last 13 or something.
But it would appear that some ranked teams are not performing up to par as we near the end of the reg. season; U of A losing to Regina and Lethbridge, UNB losing to X, UdeM has not looked convincing over their past 3-4 games exhibited by their recent OT loss to STU, SMU are very inconsistent despite having a potent offense - have not looked good despite their wins, and UQTR dropped games to Concordia and McGill recently. We'll have to wait and see...
Yeah i was at both Laurier games, they played the trap and Laurier didnt get as many quality chances as they normally do, but the nations #1 offense still scored enough
Lakehead had alot of shots on MacDougald i admit, however, VERY few were scoring chances, alot of shots from the boards and ticky-tack bounces, 120 minutes and MacDougald made maybe 2 or 3 great saves
Lakehead has ridiculuous home-ice advantage, the refs there are notorious for favoring the 'wolves. However, do we know if AUS and CW refs will be doing the tourney? They'd better otherwise the refs there will literally try and win the games for Lakehead
Regardless it will be a good atmosphere, im hoping Laurier makes it as i want the school to send me up there to cover it
Although even the hockey might not be enough to widdle away at the boredom than ensues from being stuck in Thunder Bay
Usually a CW ref will do games out of his conference and same for AUS or OUA. The linesmen can mix or match. The best officials from the round robin will do the Final, so these guys are trying to do their best and not be homers.
To AUShockeyfan - Home ice didn't do much for UdeM or UNB or the local OUA teams in Kitchener to pick six of the past eight years. Only UofA benefited by playing in their own barn. As far as UNB losing to 'X', they played an AUS final type game Friday against SMU and I think they had a bit of a letdown against 'X'. I didn't see the game, but am reliably informed that 'X' got a couple of lucky bounces and then counted on Battochio to hold the fort. I also wouldn't label SMU as inconsistent with six and five game winning streaks, winning 3 of 4 against the number 2 team in the country and losing one in OT. The unexpected losses have been goaltender and not team problems. Having said this, nothing is written in stone and the games still have to be played and feces occurs. But I would put my money on a UNB - SMU final. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first and certainly not the last time. But welcome to the Board, it's good to have another "local" around.
Usually a CW ref will do games out of his conference and same for AUS or OUA. The linesmen can mix or match. The best officials from the round robin will do the Final, so these guys are trying to do their best and not be homers.
To AUShockeyfan - Home ice didn't do much for UdeM or UNB or the local OUA teams in Kitchener to pick six of the past eight years. Only UofA benefited by playing in their own barn. As far as UNB losing to 'X', they played an AUS final type game Friday against SMU and I think they had a bit of a letdown against 'X'. I didn't see the game, but am reliably informed that 'X' got a couple of lucky bounces and then counted on Battochio to hold the fort. I also wouldn't label SMU as inconsistent with six and five game winning streaks, winning 3 of 4 against the number 2 team in the country and losing one in OT. The unexpected losses have been goaltender and not team problems. Having said this, nothing is written in stone and the games still have to be played and feces occurs. But I would put my money on a UNB - SMU final. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first and certainly not the last time. But welcome to the Board, it's good to have another "local" around.
If only they always had out of conference referees... no need to go into details there, most people will likely know what I'm referring to here...but it could have likely ended up with me having a ring on my finger. No, home ice didn't do much for us, specially since we didn't really play 'at home' and for some reason we just can't seem to bring our best game to the Coliseum.
If only they always had out of conference referees... no need to go into details there, most people will likely know what I'm referring to here...but it could have likely ended up with me having a ring on my finger. No, home ice didn't do much for us, specially since we didn't really play 'at home' and for some reason we just can't seem to bring our best game to the Coliseum.
Come on Timbit, you've got to let that go ... life's too short. He was only making the call out of the rule book ... the rule I don't think any of us knew about until then!
But I still believe you shouldn't have referee's doing games for their local teams at the University Cup. Like in '04-'05 when we went up to Edmonton, we get to our second game and Thane Arseneault is referee in chief. We tought we were doomed from the getgo, turns out he did a really good game for us and the Western fans we're calling him a homer all game long, which we tought was funny as hell, a PEI referee being a homer for us!
