I don't think so. As much as I'd love to see the 11 go up, I'd be surprised it happens unless he gets a Cup.
A Cup should be a slam dunk if Koivu finishes his career in Montreal.
But seriously, I think that's a meaningless criterion anymore. If Henri Richard or whoever had played on the teams that Koivu has, he would have won zero Cups too. Times, sadly, have changed. Anyway, we'll need more ceremonies after the current batch, and Koivu will give the team a good enough reason for one.