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We should hope Columbus gets the #1 pick

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Old
03-15-2004, 06:56 PM
  #1
jas
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We should hope Columbus gets the #1 pick

Out of all of the teams challenging for the top spot in the draft, the Blue Jackets are the one team that could look to move down. Why you ask? First of all, they have Nash as their top line LW. They have Zherdev on the way. So getting a top line winger might not be as big a priority as the Caps, Pens or Hawks. Instead, they could trade down a few spots, get a package of talent to improve their depth, plus, still add a quality player. And, supposedly McLean was interested in acquiring Umberger at the deadline. Add in that they have Nash, Klesla and Zherdev that at some point could be looking to make big money, so getting another future big money player might put a strain on their finances. Any thoughts?

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03-15-2004, 06:59 PM
  #2
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Originally Posted by jas
Out of all of the teams challenging for the top spot in the draft, the Blue Jackets are the one team that could look to move down. Why you ask? First of all, they have Nash as their top line LW. They have Zherdev on the way. So getting a top line winger might not be as big a priority as the Caps, Pens or Hawks. Instead, they could trade down a few spots, get a package of talent to improve their depth, plus, still add a quality player. And, supposedly McLean was interested in acquiring Umberger at the deadline. Add in that they have Nash, Klesla and Zherdev that at some point could be looking to make big money, so getting another future big money player might put a strain on their finances. Any thoughts?
The greatest chance for the Rangers to get O at the deadline is for Pittsburgh to get the pick (unless they get it themselves). It is strictly a financial decision.

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03-15-2004, 07:00 PM
  #3
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Originally Posted by Park #2
The greatest chance for the Rangers to get O at the deadline is for Pittsburgh to get the pick (unless they get it themselves). It is strictly a financial decision.
Sorry - meant draft - not deadline.

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Old
03-15-2004, 07:01 PM
  #4
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columbus will not pass up the chance for ovechkin because they have 2 dynamite forwards in place.. added incentive for the bj's zherdev and ovechkin are supposedly good friends

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Old
03-15-2004, 07:04 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Park #2
The greatest chance for the Rangers to get O at the deadline is for Pittsburgh to get the pick (unless they get it themselves). It is strictly a financial decision.
You and Edge keep bringing this up, but I don't see why Pittsburgh would be so quick to deal the pick. They don't have to sign him right away. They can wait and see what the new CBA does in terms of cost certainty and rookie contracts. If they still don't like the situation and decide they cannot afford Ovechkin, then they can deal him for as good a package as they would get on draft day. I don't see why being 19 as opposed to 18 would drop his trade value any.

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03-15-2004, 07:22 PM
  #6
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Originally Posted by Kodiak
You and Edge keep bringing this up, but I don't see why Pittsburgh would be so quick to deal the pick. They don't have to sign him right away. They can wait and see what the new CBA does in terms of cost certainty and rookie contracts. If they still don't like the situation and decide they cannot afford Ovechkin, then they can deal him for as good a package as they would get on draft day. I don't see why being 19 as opposed to 18 would drop his trade value any.
I certainly believe it's possible that they pick Ovechkin, keep his rights until after the lockout passes and the new CBA is agreed to and then trades him. The point is that Pittsburgh cannot afford to pay one player the bonus/salary that Ovechkin would bring. They could not do it this year with Fleury, and their financial situation grows worse by the day. Ovechkin cannot be sent down to Juniors like Fleury was to avoid salary commitments.

However, since Pittsburgh would need to trade him for young and cheap talent, trading him on draft day would probably get them a good return (and they'd be able to still draft a player that THEY like).

Let's take a hypothetical: The Rangers trade Lundmark, Umberger, and their #1 (which let's say is 6 overall) for PITT #1. Lundmark, a Group II will probably have a contract for $750,000 next year. Umberger will likely be about the same. Right there, PIT picks up two solid players in THEIR lineup for the BASE cost of a 1st overall salary. By moving down to the 6 pick (and they might even trade down from there), they will save up to $5 million dollars if not more and still come away with a pretty good player. They cannot afford to pay the bonuses the Ovechkin would require in his contract.

Read this article in reference to Fleury last year to get a better picture:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com:8000/x.../s_158676.html

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03-15-2004, 07:32 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Park #2
I certainly believe it's possible that they pick Ovechkin, keep his rights until after the lockout passes and the new CBA is agreed to and then trades him. The point is that Pittsburgh cannot afford to pay one player the bonus/salary that Ovechkin would bring. They could not do it this year with Fleury, and their financial situation grows worse by the day. Ovechkin cannot be sent down to Juniors like Fleury was to avoid salary commitments.

However, since Pittsburgh would need to trade him for young and cheap talent, trading him on draft day would probably get them a good return (and they'd be able to still draft a player that THEY like).

Let's take a hypothetical: The Rangers trade Lundmark, Umberger, and their #1 (which let's say is 6 overall) for PITT #1. Lundmark, a Group II will probably have a contract for $750,000 next year. Umberger will likely be about the same. Right there, PIT picks up two solid players in THEIR lineup for the BASE cost of a 1st overall salary. By moving down to the 6 pick (and they might even trade down from there), they will save up to $5 million dollars if not more and still come away with a pretty good player. They cannot afford to pay the bonuses the Ovechkin would require in his contract.

Read this article in reference to Fleury last year to get a better picture:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com:8000/x.../s_158676.html
I'm aware that Pittsburgh is in serious financial trouble and that was the main reason in their sending Fleury down, but this is a different situation, as that article states:

Quote:
Patrick was driven to sign Fleury in part because of a loophole in the CBA. Fleury would have become an unrestricted free agent in two years instead of re-entering the draft had the Penguins not been able to sign him. Walsh used that fact for leverage in the negotiations.
The Pens don't have to sign Ovechkin. They can leave him in Europe until their financial situation improves with the new CBA. And if a new CBA does not improve Pittsburgh's financial outlook enough that they can sign their draft picks, then they might as well fold because they will not get any better in the future.

I still don't see what Pittsburgh has to gain by making the move sooner rather than later. If Ovechkin is everything that the scouts say he is, then they will basically have their pick of anything they want from any farm system in the NHL.

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Old
03-15-2004, 07:34 PM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Park #2
Lundmark, a Group II will probably have a contract for $750,000 next year.
lundmark makes 1,025,000 this year and is due a 10% raise, pitt will not be interested in him unless they plan on acquiring his rights and dealing him elsewhere

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Old
03-15-2004, 07:37 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kodiak
I'm aware that Pittsburgh is in serious financial trouble and that was the main reason in their sending Fleury down, but this is a different situation, as that article states:



The Pens don't have to sign Ovechkin. They can leave him in Europe until their financial situation improves with the new CBA. And if a new CBA does not improve Pittsburgh's financial outlook enough that they can sign their draft picks, then they might as well fold because they will not get any better in the future.

I still don't see what Pittsburgh has to gain by making the move sooner rather than later. If Ovechkin is everything that the scouts say he is, then they will basically have their pick of anything they want from any farm system in the NHL.
Well, the same "loophole" would exist unless it's taken out of the new CBA - which it will not be. The league will have to throw bones to the player association to get them to agree to a cap, and this type of free agency is better. Their financial situation has NO way of improving until they get a new building or move. (which is 3 or 4 years away). The new CBA really won't help them - the players contracts aren't the problem.

The Penguins would be pressured to trade (or sign) him by their remaining fans since the product is so poor there anyway. Having the guy sit on the sidelines for a year will just piss more people off. (Not to mention the NHL, since one of the best and more exciting players in the world would be rotting in Europe). It also wouldn't serve them, as they could add 3-4 good players for one great one.

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03-15-2004, 07:48 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Park #2
Well, the same "loophole" would exist unless it's taken out of the new CBA - which it will not be. The league will have to throw bones to the player association to get them to agree to a cap, and this type of free agency is better. Their financial situation has NO way of improving until they get a new building or move. (which is 3 or 4 years away). The new CBA really won't help them - the players contracts aren't the problem.

The Penguins would be pressured to trade (or sign) him by their remaining fans since the product is so poor there anyway. Having the guy sit on the sidelines for a year will just piss more people off. (Not to mention the NHL, since one of the best and more exciting players in the world would be rotting in Europe). It also wouldn't serve them, as they could add 3-4 good players for one great one.
Even if that loophole is left in the new CBA, Ovechkin would not be able to take advantage of it as we would be drafted out of Europe and not Canadian Juniors like Fleury.

Another point that does not add up for me, would trading the #1 pick for another top 10 pick and a couple of very good prospects really help out Pittsburgh financially? Whoever they select will demand a contract comparable to Ovechkin. Even if Ovechkin hits all of his bonuses and makes the $4 mil or so that Kovalchuk made in his rookie year, is that such a backbreaker considering that the players that Pittsburgh would receive in a potential Ovechkin trade would all likely be making the rookie max with performance bonuses of their own?

Also, who's to say that the new CBA won't bring some extra cash to Pittsburgh? The push for cost certainty and more equal footing among the teams could very well lead to some form of revenue sharing, which would help the Pens immensely.

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Old
03-15-2004, 07:54 PM
  #11
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Originally Posted by Kodiak
Even if that loophole is left in the new CBA, Ovechkin would not be able to take advantage of it as we would be drafted out of Europe and not Canadian Juniors like Fleury.

Another point that does not add up for me, would trading the #1 pick for another top 10 pick and a couple of very good prospects really help out Pittsburgh financially? Whoever they select will demand a contract comparable to Ovechkin. Even if Ovechkin hits all of his bonuses and makes the $4 mil or so that Kovalchuk made in his rookie year, is that such a backbreaker considering that the players that Pittsburgh would receive in a potential Ovechkin trade would all likely be making the rookie max with performance bonuses of their own?

Also, who's to say that the new CBA won't bring some extra cash to Pittsburgh? The push for cost certainty and more equal footing among the teams could very well lead to some form of revenue sharing, which would help the Pens immensely.
ON your 1st point, if Ovechkin were in this situation he would likely come to Canada and play - not in Juniors but in minor league. As he would likely be lighting up the minor leagues with his scoring, pressure would mount on PIT as they would essentially be letting him rot there.

I said, I think they might even trade down from 6. And I don't think this player would play in Pittsburgh for 2-3 years whatever the case may be. In my scenario, Umberger and Lundmark would play in the NHL and they wouldn't have those type bonuses. They would make a combined 1.5 million or some similar figure (higher or smaller).

Revenue sharing is not going to help Pittsburgh. The question is how far in the hole they will be - not how financially stable they will be. They are a dead franchise until a new building or a move. That's the bottom line. The amount of money they lose per year is the only consideration right now.

I know you are skeptical, so let's see how it plays out.

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Old
03-15-2004, 08:05 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Park #2
ON your 1st point, if Ovechkin were in this situation he would likely come to Canada and play - not in Juniors but in minor league. As he would likely be lighting up the minor leagues with his scoring, pressure would mount on PIT as they would essentially be letting him rot there.

I said, I think they might even trade down from 6. And I don't think this player would play in Pittsburgh for 2-3 years whatever the case may be. In my scenario, Umberger and Lundmark would play in the NHL and they wouldn't have those type bonuses. They would make a combined 1.5 million or some similar figure (higher or smaller).

Revenue sharing is not going to help Pittsburgh. The question is how far in the hole they will be - not how financially stable they will be. They are a dead franchise until a new building or a move. That's the bottom line. The amount of money they lose per year is the only consideration right now.

I know you are skeptical, so let's see how it plays out.
Okay, we'll just wait and see. But I'd be surprised to see him dealt on draft day. To me, it looks like the Pens have everything to gain and nothing to lose by holding on to Ovechkin. If the new CBA helps them out enough, they'll have a future star. If it doesn't, 29 GMs will be falling over themselves making offers for this kid. But I do agree that they cannot let him play in another league (but I doubt he'd leave Europe without an NHL contract). Once NHL hockey resumes, they would have to make a decision.

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03-15-2004, 08:09 PM
  #13
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Originally Posted by Kodiak
Okay, we'll just wait and see. But I'd be surprised to see him dealt on draft day. To me, it looks like the Pens have everything to gain and nothing to lose by holding on to Ovechkin. If the new CBA helps them out enough, they'll have a future star. If it doesn't, 29 GMs will be falling over themselves making offers for this kid. But I do agree that they cannot let him play in another league (but I doubt he'd leave Europe without an NHL contract). Once NHL hockey resumes, they would have to make a decision.
NHL players will be playing all over the world next season with a lockout. He'll go to wherever the best competition/best salary is.

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03-15-2004, 08:11 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Park #2
NHL players will be playing all over the world next season with a lockout. He'll go to wherever the best competition/best salary is.
So long as there is a lockout, he's not getting signed anyway.

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03-15-2004, 08:20 PM
  #15
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Originally Posted by Kodiak
So long as there is a lockout, he's not getting signed anyway.
You don't manage a professional franchise that way.

I agree that it'd be dumb to sign a pick before the new CBA comes out. That said, I also know that the Penguins know that no matter what is in the new CBA, they are still in financial ruin. They would maximize the returns no matter what by getting 3-4 players (or picks - not saying the Rangers are getting him) for the price of 1 player.

This is a business. The Product in Pittsburgh at this time is not relevant. They simply want the cheapest overhead. Ovechkin does not fit into that.

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03-15-2004, 08:51 PM
  #16
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If I'm Ovechkin, I demand a large contract knowing that the richest team in the league, the Rangers, are drafting only a few places behind Pittsburg. I'm sure Ovechkin's agent also is going to advise his client not to sign with Pittsburg, because of the team's financial burden. If Ovechkin is smart he pulls a Lindros and refuses to sign with the Pens.

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03-15-2004, 09:18 PM
  #17
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i think people forget that Ovchekin does not have to sign a contract and that he is ready for the nhl next year.

Now it comes down to this in the end.

Pitts can't sign him now because they can't afford him.

Even if there is a lockout they run the risk of having Ovchekin not want to sign {would you honestly want to sign in pitts for less money} and then they find themselves behind the eight ball to make a trade and get some assets back.

pitts problems dont disappear with a lockout and new labor agreement. unless the situation within the city itself changes, that team is in trouble.

they trade the pick, get some extra picks and buy themselves some time while still putting assets in their account.

its not definate but its a VERY real possbility.

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Old
03-15-2004, 09:21 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankieD
If I'm Ovechkin, I demand a large contract knowing that the richest team in the league, the Rangers, are drafting only a few places behind Pittsburg. I'm sure Ovechkin's agent also is going to advise his client not to sign with Pittsburg, because of the team's financial burden. If Ovechkin is smart he pulls a Lindros and refuses to sign with the Pens.
i 'don't think REFUSING would be the best thing if that's what you meant. but rather just price himself right out of pittsburgh. he can just use fleury's contract bonus as a comparison. pittsburgh probably can't afford 2 players getting paid that much unless ovechkin is just THAT good that the pittsburgh masses swarm into the igloo. highly unlikely.

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