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Original Six Finals, overdue, but...

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06-09-2013, 06:27 PM
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ChiTownPhilly
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Original Six Finals, overdue, but...

... not by as much as you'd think.

As many of us have doubtless heard by now, the last time there was an Original Six Stanley Cup Finals was 1979- 34 years ago. A long time ago, to be sure... but is it an anomalously long time ago? In the cold light of discrete statistics, I'd say "no."

Extrapolating current conference configuration and presuming parity conditions, one would expect an Original Six finals once every 28 years. Of course, this is a rudimentary start to the analysis. The number of teams has increased from 1979, parity conditions exist only in theory and not in reality, and so on. Still, I think one would find that if we factored for all the variables, the expected value of one O-6 SC finals in a 34-year span would be, to the nearest whole number, one.

Starting next year, the enacted re-alignment will lessen the chance of this happening. Now, in order for there to be an Original Six Finals, the Blackhawks must be one of the finalists. This lengthens the odds of its occurrence by nearly 45%.

For those of us who have more of our life behind us than in front of us, we might be witnessing our last Original-Six Stanley Cup Finals.


Last edited by ChiTownPhilly: 06-09-2013 at 08:20 PM. Reason: typo
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06-10-2013, 11:14 PM
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AlbinoAssassin
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Good stuff. I wonder what the odds of an all Canadian team finals would be under the new alignment?

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06-12-2013, 10:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlbinoAssassin View Post
Good stuff. I wonder what the odds of an all Canadian team finals would be under the new alignment?
Great question. [May I say in advance that I, the OP, don't at all mind the slight thread drift?!]

The raw mathematical response to this question isn't as interesting as the fact that the new alignment (with three Canadian Eastern Conference Teams and Winnipeg being added to CGY/EDM/VAN to make four Canadian Western Conference Teams), just about optimizes the chance of an all-Canadian Finals.

Presuming a static conference line-up and parity conditions, an all-Canadian Stanley Cup finals (a.k.a: wet dream for TSN/nightmare for NBC) would be expected to occur every eighteen years.

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06-12-2013, 01:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlbinoAssassin View Post
Good stuff. I wonder what the odds of an all Canadian team finals would be under the new alignment?
Unless you are willing to discard how they all play: 0%

if you are throwing all the teams in a hat and drawing then there's a chance.

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06-12-2013, 03:47 PM
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AlbinoAssassin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownPhilly View Post
Great question. [May I say in advance that I, the OP, don't at all mind the slight thread drift?!]

The raw mathematical response to this question isn't as interesting as the fact that the new alignment (with three Canadian Eastern Conference Teams and Winnipeg being added to CGY/EDM/VAN to make four Canadian Western Conference Teams), just about optimizes the chance of an all-Canadian Finals.

Presuming a static conference line-up and parity conditions, an all-Canadian Stanley Cup finals (a.k.a: wet dream for TSN/nightmare for NBC) would be expected to occur every eighteen years.
So on average a Canadian city would be guaranteed a cup celebration about once every 18 years. We are already heavily overdue for one, that's for sure

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06-12-2013, 09:31 PM
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So assuming you're giving each team an equal chance;

3 in 16 Eastern teams are Canadian or 18.75%
4 in 14 western teams are Canadian 25.57%

So the odds of a Canadian team winning both conferences is 5.3% or basically 1 in 20.

It's also not as big of a mathematical miracle that this is the first final between Chicago and Boston. There were 30 possible matchups among the original 6 teams and since there were 25 seasons played during that era, it was impossible for every combination to occur in the finals.

There were no finals featuring two of New York, Chicago, and Boston (though Boston and New York did meet in 1972) . Now a main factor is James Norris had controlling interests in all 4 American teams and generally channeled them to Detroit.


Last edited by leeaf83: 06-13-2013 at 11:02 AM.
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06-12-2013, 09:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leeaf83 View Post
So assuming you're giving each team an equal chance;

3 in 16 Eastern teams are Canadian or 18.75%
4 in 14 western teams are Canadian 25.57%

So the odds of a Canadian team winning both conferences is 5.3% or basically 1 in 20.

It's also not as big of a mathematical miracle that this is the first final between Chicago and Detroit.


Quote:
There were 30 possible matchups among the original 6 teams and since there were 25 seasons played during that era, it was impossible for every combination to occur in the finals.
There were 15 possible matchups, not 30:

Boston/Chicago
Boston/Detroit
Boston/Montreal
Boston/New York
Boston/Toronto
Chicago/Detroit
Chicago/Montreal
Chicago/New York
Chicago/Toronto
Detroit/Montreal
Detroit/New York
Detroit/Toronto
Montreal/New York
Montreal/Toronto
New York/Toronto

Quote:
There were no finals featuring two of New York, Chicago, and Boston (though Boston and New York did meet in 1972) . Now a main factor is James Norris had controlling interests in all 4 American teams and generally channeled them to Detroit.
Except when he let that ******* Jack Adams **** the Red Wings over by trading away all of their best players for nothing because they had "done something to deserve it" such as Kelly negotiating a contract, Sawchuk being older than Hall, Lindsay organizing the NHLPA, Hall being a point of interest for Chicago, Bucyk being the necesary piece to get Sawchuk back (after having stupidly traded away Hall). In the span of a couple seasons he completely tore down a Wings team that was set up for long-term greatness.

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