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Thoughts on Backstrom/Semin/etc. re-signing

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Old
02-21-2009, 11:11 AM
  #1
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Thoughts on Backstrom/Semin/etc. re-signing

Alright so what are you guys' thoughts on Semin re-signing here? Do you think he will ask for too much money and be traded or something like that?

I'm only really curious right now since I am really cheap and very close to buying a Semin jersey. Of course I don't want to buy the jersey if I think he maybe gone in a couple of years.


Last edited by Langway: 12-02-2009 at 08:35 AM.
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02-21-2009, 11:17 AM
  #2
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If you want a jersey from the Caps on someone who is definitely going to be here down the road, get an Ovechkin one. Likewise, Green and Backstrom would be a solid choice as both either have decent length of contract left or the Caps control their rights for a while.


As for Semin, he probably will be here in 2 years time, but there is a chance not. He's probably the most likely of the big 4 to not be here if you had to wager.

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02-21-2009, 11:21 AM
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txpd
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I think Semin's season has worked out well for the Caps. His injuries have carved down his production enough to keep his salary demands in check and McPhee can attempt to lock him up before next season runs too deep.

Personality wise, I think Semin is as comfortable in Washington as he is going to get in NA. I dont think he wants to try another situation.

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02-21-2009, 11:22 AM
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thanks guys

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02-21-2009, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd View Post
I think Semin is as comfortable in Washington as he is going to get in NA. I dont think he wants to try another situation.
I agree with this.

But, he certainly will want to get paid. If we short change him or beat him up too bad in the process and he leaves, I worry how Ovie will react. They are very close. I'm sure it won;t come to this and I'm fairly sure Ovie will be happy and play hard regardless, but it is a facet to be aware of.

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02-21-2009, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by XDC-RES View Post
I agree with this.

But, he certainly will want to get paid. If we short change him or beat him up too bad in the process and he leaves, I worry how Ovie will react. They are very close. I'm sure it won;t come to this and I'm fairly sure Ovie will be happy and play hard regardless, but it is a facet to be aware of.
Its simple math. The Caps will have to pay Backstrom after next season as well.

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02-21-2009, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd View Post
Its simple math. The Caps will have to pay Backstrom after next season as well.
I'm not saying we should pay him a ton, I'm just saying it would be silly to asume he won't want to be paid like a star.

Let's not start another long thread about who is leaving, when, and how much that frees up. I think we'll be fine.

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02-21-2009, 03:47 PM
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He'll have to take less than his market value to stay with the Caps. With no history of injury, he's probably worth 7ish. As it stands, he's probably worth 6ish. I don't see how the McPhee can afford to give him much more than that.

Mishandling Semin's contract situation could be absolutely disastrous for the upcoming Backstrom negotiations. If Nick puts up a Benjamin next season, becomes a pk fixture and progresses in all areas as he has, I don't see how we're not screwed.

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02-21-2009, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Biscuit Bullet View Post
He'll have to take less than his market value to stay with the Caps. With no history of injury, he's probably worth 7ish. As it stands, he's probably worth 6ish. I don't see how the McPhee can afford to give him much more than that.

Mishandling Semin's contract situation could be absolutely disastrous for the upcoming Backstrom negotiations. If Nick puts up a Benjamin next season, becomes a pk fixture and progresses in all areas as he has, I don't see how we're not screwed.
Which is why every possible effort needs to be made to extend Backstrom this offseason. Lock him in now, long-ish term, and set the groundwork for what you'll have to work with for Semin, Fleischmann, et. al. Backstrom needs to be signed before Semin, but both of them should be signed sooner rather than later.

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02-21-2009, 04:21 PM
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Semin does seem to enjoy the DC atmosphere and I have to think playing with #8 is a big draw. I don't see any way the Caps trade him or let him receive an offer sheet, but I think they'd be very fortunate to have him sign for less than a $7 mil cap hit. Particularly if Semin prefers to delay any extensions until after the next season, which would be smart of him because this season's injury knocked down his value a bit.

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02-21-2009, 04:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DekeShot View Post
Semin does seem to enjoy the DC atmosphere and I have to think playing with #8 is a big draw. I don't see any way the Caps trade him or let him receive an offer sheet, but I think they'd be very fortunate to have him sign for less than a $7 mil cap hit. Particularly if Semin prefers to delay any extensions until after the next season, which would be smart of him because this season's injury knocked down his value a bit.
Semin at 7/per will lead to the dreaded Tampa Bay Penguinitis aka top heavy contract syndrome aka severe cap inflexibility....crash n' burn doom n' gloom aaaaaaahhhhhh.

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02-21-2009, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Biscuit Bullet View Post
He'll have to take less than his market value to stay with the Caps. With no history of injury, he's probably worth 7ish. As it stands, he's probably worth 6ish. I don't see how the McPhee can afford to give him much more than that.

Mishandling Semin's contract situation could be absolutely disastrous for the upcoming Backstrom negotiations. If Nick puts up a Benjamin next season, becomes a pk fixture and progresses in all areas as he has, I don't see how we're not screwed.
The Caps did well without Semin.

The Caps, if well managed, should be good for years; even if they lose Semin.

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02-21-2009, 05:58 PM
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Yes, buy the jersey.

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02-21-2009, 10:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd View Post
I think Semin's season has worked out well for the Caps. His injuries have carved down his production enough to keep his salary demands in check and McPhee can attempt to lock him up before next season runs too deep.

Personality wise, I think Semin is as comfortable in Washington as he is going to get in NA. I dont think he wants to try another situation.
I disagree with the first part and agree with the second.

The part I disagree with is how is injuries/production will keep his salary in check. Fact is if he wants to get paid big dollars, someone will be willing to pay him. He has shown enough to get an overpriced contract from someone....happens every off-season. That said I think the second part rings strong and if the Caps offer to extend him with a fair deal, I could see him signing a managable contract.

Backstrom is going to get paid...flat out. He is simply a dynamite player who is getting better. I cant wait to see him when he is like 27.

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02-21-2009, 10:32 PM
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Backstrom needs to be signed before Semin. I think we could afford to lose Semin and keep winning. Backstrom is going to be scary good, and great defensively. He needs to be signed, and at for long term.

If we could get them both signed, at a reasonable cost, it would be great but Mcphee would have to pull off some serious magic.

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02-21-2009, 10:48 PM
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I wouldn't buy it, but I'm incredibly conservative with jerseys.

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02-22-2009, 12:23 AM
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If $7m/per is really Semin's market price, I'll take the 4 first rounders.

He is a supremely talented player, but he's streaky, he's injury prone, and he takes a lot of bad penalties. I am glad to have the kid and would gladly pay him Green-level money. But no way in hell do I make him one of the 20 highest paid players in the NHL, which is what a salary north of $6.75 would make him.

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02-22-2009, 12:29 AM
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Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
If $7m/per is really Semin's market price, I'll take the 4 first rounders.

He is a supremely talented player, but he's streaky, he's injury prone, and he takes a lot of bad penalties. I am glad to have the kid and would gladly pay him Green-level money. But no way in hell do I make him one of the 20 highest paid players in the NHL, which is what a salary north of $6.75 would make him.
My thoughts exactly. Love to keep him around but there has got to be a limit on what the Caps are willing to pay. He hasn't done anything to prove he's a 7/mill per year player.

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02-22-2009, 01:24 AM
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If he doesn't resign, Fehr and Fleischmann-on their current development paths-would make up for Semin's production. That is an "if."

Something tells me he'll sign a very reasonable contract. I just don't see negotiations getting ugly. It's tough to say though. As a young player, what do you take? Less money with the team you know you have a niche in, or 1 mil+ more/year on a new stage? Semin doesn't seem like a guy who'd want to have to re-integrate himself in new team. Ultimately, he seems shy yet sincere. Despite his spotty play, I see him smiling more often than not. Does he really wanna go elsewhere?

I'd hope Backstrom & Semin realize that playing together for the next 5ish years, with OV & Green, is arguably the best chance at a cup in their careers.

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02-22-2009, 05:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
If $7m/per is really Semin's market price, I'll take the 4 first rounders.

He is a supremely talented player, but he's streaky, he's injury prone, and he takes a lot of bad penalties. I am glad to have the kid and would gladly pay him Green-level money. But no way in hell do I make him one of the 20 highest paid players in the NHL, which is what a salary north of $6.75 would make him.
Agreed!

I honestly think our true "core" is Ovie, Backstrom, and Green. If we can keep Semin for a fair amount, great, but if we can't I dont think it's the end of the world. He would land us a good package in a trade and a few 1sts if he accepts and offer sheet from someone else. Any one of those three scenarios is fine. The only one scenario that isn't good is keeping him for more than 5m per. (or thereabouts).

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02-22-2009, 08:03 AM
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After the next season Caps are not going to have Fedorov, Clark, and Theodore... That's around 13 mil, is it not?

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02-22-2009, 08:27 AM
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After the next season Caps are not going to have Fedorov, Clark, and Theodore... That's around 13 mil, is it not?
Yes. We have 26.5m in 2010-2011 cap commitments. But that's only covers 6 players -- Ovie, Green, Nylander, Poti, Laich, Bradley. I guess you could bump that to $28m and include Alzner. So, we have a ton of roles to fill. Yes, we do have the ability to possibly afford a $7m salary for Semin, but the issue is simply whether it's worth it or not. In my book, unless his play improves significantly next season (from the maturity and consistency perspective), it's not. Remember, there's not only the issue of using the money for other (multiple) upgrades, there's also the issue of creating a nearly un-movable contract in case his play tails off a bit.

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02-22-2009, 09:00 AM
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After the next season Caps are not going to have Fedorov, Clark, and Theodore... That's around 13 mil, is it not?
GMGM has seemed adamant in asserting he'll have the cap space for Semin and Backstrom, and this is largely why I guess. No Kozlov, not Feds, no Pothier, no NMC for Nylander or lowered salary for buyout, no Theo.

If we can be at the point where we're getting cheap goaltending (Varlamov - Neuvirth), relatively cheap defensive depth (Carlson, maybe Godfrey or Finley or someone like that), and still have some cheap-ish supporting forwards (hopefully still Fehr, maybe a Bourque/Bouchard/Kugryshev/etc.) then we can probably do it. It won't be easy, but it'll be possible.

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02-22-2009, 10:03 AM
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As Txpd mentioned I think Semin's inability to stay healthy for a full season has cut into his ability to score a huge payday. However next season is going to be a huge factor.

He has a cap hit of 4.6 million and I think 6 to 6.5 is going to be about right for him. Without a full season of being completely healthy under his belt I would be very hard pressed to see how he gets more than that.

My guess is that he stays, aside from his boneheaded defensive lapses, he is truly one of the finest offensive talents in the game and a great offensive compliment to Ovechkin.

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02-22-2009, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
If $7m/per is really Semin's market price, I'll take the 4 first rounders.

He is a supremely talented player, but he's streaky, he's injury prone, and he takes a lot of bad penalties. I am glad to have the kid and would gladly pay him Green-level money. But no way in hell do I make him one of the 20 highest paid players in the NHL, which is what a salary north of $6.75 would make him.
This just about sums things up nicely.

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