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Is it logical for Dallas to trade up in the draft?

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Old
03-02-2009, 09:54 AM
  #1
Alistar
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Is it logical for Dallas to trade up in the draft?

I gave this scenario a great deal of thought last night and I'd like to hear your opinions on the matter.

Say Dallas finishes with a top 10 selection in the 2009 entry draft (could be anywhere from 8 through 10, this is not outside the realm of possibility). Now obviously there are some great players available at these positions and Dallas pretty much could not go wrong selecting any one of them, but the Stars have to realise that they are in a unique situation here. Dallas would be the only team in the bottom 10 of the NHL that plans to compete for the Stanley Cup next season - as analysed already in the recent salary cap threads the Stars will be able to retain the services of every key player on the roster with the possible exception of Sergei Zubov (due to retirement) and what's more the Stars could make a significant addition in the free agent market.

The relevance of this is that to trade up in the draft (as seen last year demonstrated by the Islanders and the Maple Leafs) you will need to give up atleast your 1st and 2nd rounders with the possible addition of further picks depending on the quality of players available at that position in the draft. For the Stars, these later round picks mean virtually nothing for the next 3-4 seasons - the amount of time it would likely take to develope a prospect drafted at that position into a NHL calibur player. By sacrificing the possibility of having these later round picks as solid NHL'ers in the future Dallas could potential make a significant upgrade in the quality of their first round selection and get a key building block for the future on the roster as early as next season (but more likely in 2009-10, which coincidently matches up to the first season Dallas will be without Modano and probably Lehtinen - good time for a young superstar to emerge). Is this a good idea? well yeah.. it can definetly be a great move. Luke Schenn has emerged as a great young defenceman who the leafs will build around for years whereas I can't even remember the name of the players the Islanders selected with the Leaf's draft pick.

For every other team in the bottom 10, success is years away. They will be more likely to trade down in the draft as the additional prospects will speed up the rebuilding process and they can demand above market value for their draft picks. I contend that Dallas should pay this extra amount for better picks because this will be likely the only time in the next 5 years where they are in the position to draft an impact forward or defenceman - something the franchise definetly needs and can't be easily obtained through free agency or trade. In any other year our 1st rounder (bottom 10 in the draft) isn't worth **** to these rebuilding teams - it might as well be a second rounder because the chances of drafting a star player at that position in the draft are slim most years. Dallas needs to take advantage of this situation even if it means giving up significant assets - it could be the difference between getting the 3rd best player in the draft (behind Tavares and Hedman who are virtually off limits) and getting the 9th or 10th.

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03-02-2009, 10:18 AM
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I think Dallas can pick up a good player in the 9-15 draft slot. I just don't see the logic really in moving up 7 spots and giving away our 1st, 2nd and what will likely cost us one of out top prospects.

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03-02-2009, 10:25 AM
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the interesting thing about any draft is that what a team considers the best players don't always match up with the draft rankings - it could be that the Stars feel that Brayden Schenn or Nazem Kadri are the 3rd best player in the draft - in that case Dallas would have to only trade up 3 or 4 positions, not all the way up to #3 overall.

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03-02-2009, 10:40 AM
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I guess I should emphasize that I really believe that this is the best chance (possibly the only chance) the Stars will have in the near future to acquire a franchise player. I fully expect the team to return to their usual standard of play next season (hopefully with alot less injuries and a bit more luck) and the fact is there is a huge difference between a good player and a great one. If this is the only chance we're going to get, why not take it?

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03-02-2009, 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alistar View Post
I guess I should emphasize that I really believe that this is the best chance (possibly the only chance) the Stars will have in the near future to acquire a franchise player. I fully expect the team to return to their usual standard of play next season (hopefully with alot less injuries and a bit more luck) and the fact is there is a huge difference between a good player and a great one. If this is the only chance we're going to get, why not take it?
Because 1st overall picks become busts and 5th round picks become Jamie Benn and Philip Larsen.

If Dallas isn't trading for Hedman or Tavares, there is no reason to give up assets. The NHL draft is nothing like the NFL. You're evaluating 18 year old kids, and no one knows for sure how a teenager will grow into a professional athlete.

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03-02-2009, 11:49 AM
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If Dallas feels the need to give up their 1st and 2nd this year then it better be for significant pieces that can help up for years to come...(Boumeester, Spezza, Crosby, Malkin

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03-02-2009, 12:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Because 1st overall picks become busts and 5th round picks become Jamie Benn and Philip Larsen.

If Dallas isn't trading for Hedman or Tavares, there is no reason to give up assets. The NHL draft is nothing like the NFL. You're evaluating 18 year old kids, and no one knows for sure how a teenager will grow into a professional athlete.
Agreed...this is supposed to be a pretty deep draft, so unless its Tavares or Hedman(which won't happen), just stay where you are and make your picks.

Weak/less deep drafts are the time to move up to try and guarantee yourself an impact player.

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03-02-2009, 02:58 PM
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My guess is they'll stay where they are unless they're really really high on a kid and they want him badly. But the way this draft is going I'm not sure if there's anything that concrete outside of Hedman and Tavares. As in, 3rd-10th don't seem to have a huge consensus yet.

And Big that's some dumb logic. Keeping our 5th round pick because they turned into Larsen and Benn? I won't deny that Dallas seems to be coming into their own at the draft table but if someone wanted our 5th to move up a bit I'd give it to them in a hearbeat. Especially since we finally have all our picks except for our 7th I believe.

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03-02-2009, 03:21 PM
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I doubt they move up

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03-02-2009, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Silent Bob View Post
My guess is they'll stay where they are unless they're really really high on a kid and they want him badly. But the way this draft is going I'm not sure if there's anything that concrete outside of Hedman and Tavares. As in, 3rd-10th don't seem to have a huge consensus yet.

And Big that's some dumb logic. Keeping our 5th round pick because they turned into Larsen and Benn? I won't deny that Dallas seems to be coming into their own at the draft table but if someone wanted our 5th to move up a bit I'd give it to them in a hearbeat. Especially since we finally have all our picks except for our 7th I believe.
Yeah real dumb logic considering I said nothing about trading the 5th or keeping it.

I was illustrating that the draft is basically a wild *** guess. Next time Iíll spell it out better for you.

I'd call it lacking comprehensive reading skills as opposed to bad logic.

The question was asked whether or not Dallas should move up in the 1st. Do you think a 5th will even move you one spot in the 1st round?

LA had to trade the 17 and 28 to get to 12. Wow, a late first to move 5 spots. Iím sure Dallas could figure out a way to do it with a 5th. Buffalo turned around and traded the 13th and their 3rd round pick (2009) to get the 12 from LA. Unless Dallas acquired about 20 5th round picks, they have no impact on the 1st round.

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03-02-2009, 03:38 PM
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It's all going to depend on where Dallas ends up in this draft. If the free fall continues, heck the Stars could compete with Colorado for last in the West and a top five draft pick. If that's the case I could see them focusing on a guy like Schroder who for reasons passing understanding is falling in this draft. They may be like the Islanders last year and move down twice, picking up extra picks and still get the guy they want.

In turn they could use those picks themselves or package them to a team to grab an NHL defenseman like Toronto's Kaberle.

Amazingly enough if Dallas goes like .400 the rest of the way, a top five spot and possible lottery win are not out of the question. Then my question is would you drop out of the top spot to say 4th or 5th?

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03-02-2009, 03:41 PM
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I agree this would be a good draft to snag a potential franchise player. This draft seems to have several of them. I know people like to bag on the potential of the first couple players in the draft but lets be realistic here. The guys who have been taken very very high lately have frequently had immediate positive impacts on their teams. There arent many busts in the top 5 picks in the last 5 years or so, and for the most part teams have got some real studs there. So id definately advocate moving some parts around to try to land a guy like Duchene, Cowan, or Schroeder.

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03-02-2009, 03:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hull Fan View Post
It's all going to depend on where Dallas ends up in this draft. If the free fall continues, heck the Stars could compete with Colorado for last in the West and a top five draft pick. If that's the case I could see them focusing on a guy like Schroder who for reasons passing understanding is falling in this draft. They may be like the Islanders last year and move down twice, picking up extra picks and still get the guy they want.

In turn they could use those picks themselves or package them to a team to grab an NHL defenseman like Toronto's Kaberle.

Amazingly enough if Dallas goes like .400 the rest of the way, a top five spot and possible lottery win are not out of the question. Then my question is would you drop out of the top spot to say 4th or 5th?
I would. Hedman and Tavaras are amazing, but i think there are a few guys who arent quite as good but still likely very very good players, even gamebreakers. There are also a ton of guys that could go in the 20-40 range i am interested in. So if you had the first and traded down to say the 4th or 5th while picking up an extra pick or two in the range I would think it was a great idea.

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03-02-2009, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by txomisc View Post
I would. Hedman and Tavaras are amazing, but i think there are a few guys who arent quite as good but still likely very very good players, even gamebreakers. There are also a ton of guys that could go in the 20-40 range i am interested in. So if you had the first and traded down to say the 4th or 5th while picking up an extra pick or two in the range I would think it was a great idea.
I mostly have to agree. Dallas in that position I think could move down to 5. Then move again to say 9. Take Schroeder at nine, pick up say 25, two 2nds, and the right to switch picks with whomever next year.

I think if Kaberle is not moved at the deadline he could be had for a 1st, 2nd, and a prospect like Beskorwany because they have no goalies besides Pogge and the jury is still very much out as to his NHL viability.

In that scenario Dallas not only gets a great prospect but they get the immediate defensive help they need locked into a good contract for another couple of years. That's my dream scenario anyway.

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03-02-2009, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Hull Fan View Post
I mostly have to agree. Dallas in that position I think could move down to 5. Then move again to say 9. Take Schroeder at nine, pick up say 25, two 2nds, and the right to switch picks with whomever next year.

I think if Kaberle is not moved at the deadline he could be had for a 1st, 2nd, and a prospect like Beskorwany because they have no goalies besides Pogge and the jury is still very much out as to his NHL viability.

In that scenario Dallas not only gets a great prospect but they get the immediate defensive help they need locked into a good contract for another couple of years. That's my dream scenario anyway.
Moving down would be a good idea because the price to move up is steep.

Point of reference: Cammalleri (with only 1 year left on his contract) and the 48th pick (18th in the 2nd) got the 17th overall pick and Calgary's 2nd in 2009 (15th-25th in the 2nd)

With that in mind, the package you described for Kaberle sounds light.

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03-02-2009, 04:23 PM
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Yeah real dumb logic considering I said nothing about trading the 5th or keeping it.

I was illustrating that the draft is basically a wild *** guess. Next time I’ll spell it out better for you.

I'd call it lacking comprehensive reading skills as opposed to bad logic.

The question was asked whether or not Dallas should move up in the 1st. Do you think a 5th will even move you one spot in the 1st round?

LA had to trade the 17 and 28 to get to 12. Wow, a late first to move 5 spots. I’m sure Dallas could figure out a way to do it with a 5th. Buffalo turned around and traded the 13th and their 3rd round pick (2009) to get the 12 from LA. Unless Dallas acquired about 20 5th round picks, they have no impact on the 1st round.
I guess we'll never understand each other then, because there's no way that anyone would use a 5th to trade up one spot in the 1st round. That's not what I was saying. I don't think drafting is as much of a crapshoot as it used to be anyway. Seems like scouting is getting exponentially better, and I'm pretty sure a 1st is way less of crapshoot than a 5th. Yay for double misunderstandings.

Also, you're pretty catty for a guy.

Maybe it's because I don't get to see Kaberle much, but frankly I'd rather keep my 1st and see what that turns into.

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03-02-2009, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hull Fan View Post
I mostly have to agree. Dallas in that position I think could move down to 5. Then move again to say 9. Take Schroeder at nine, pick up say 25, two 2nds, and the right to switch picks with whomever next year.

I think if Kaberle is not moved at the deadline he could be had for a 1st, 2nd, and a prospect like Beskorwany because they have no goalies besides Pogge and the jury is still very much out as to his NHL viability.

In that scenario Dallas not only gets a great prospect but they get the immediate defensive help they need locked into a good contract for another couple of years. That's my dream scenario anyway.
The thing with Schroeder is its very difficult in my eyes to figure exactly where he will be taken. I could definately see him going in the top 5. I think he more likely slots into the 7-10 range but Im not sure Id risk it. Admittedly Im not exactly Mr Scout, but there are only 4 guys in the draft I would take ahead of him. Those being Hedman, Tavaras, Cowan, and Duchene. Players id like to see the stars find a way to get ahold of that should go later include Budish, Rundblad, and Morin.

As for Kaberle, I dont like the guy. Im not exactly sure why but he just doesnt interest me as a star.

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03-02-2009, 05:02 PM
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i think the top 5 will be occupied by tavares, hedman, cowan, duchene and either schenn or kane...

meaning players like MSP, schroeder and ekman larrson will be available at the 7,8,9 poisiton...

If we are picking at 11 or 12 i think it is worth trying to get in to the top 9 (trading our 1st and a second) to try and get one of those 3..it might be risky...but i actually tend to agree with Alistair, this could be the only draft where we could get a genuine star, dallas will most likely not get another pick in the next 3-4 drafts until 20 or higher..

In terms of giving up assets this could be the "easiest" draft where we could make a move without having to sacrifice too much. I understand the point guys like bigg44 make and how its a deep draft so we may as well keep all our picks and we will still get strong players in the first 3 rounds..

But i think the top 9 in this draft are exceptional talents, it may be a risk to trade up for them, but IMO the potetnial reward would be better than this franchise has had in a long time..it would defintaley be something worth getting excited about

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03-02-2009, 05:07 PM
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I sincerely doubt MSP is there at 7,8, or 9. Just from what I've heard he's likely a top 5 pick.

I hope they pick up a goalie or two in the later rounds, hopefully something Markstromesque happens and we miraculously get someone who is projected to be a good #1.

Where do you guys think we will end up with this roster anyway? I just checked today and we're 21st in the conference which would give us the 10th pick in the draft. I could see St. Louis, LA, and maybe Colorado passing us if they get healthy enough. But that's a worst case scenario IMO, I have a hard time seeing that happening. That optimistically (or pessimistically depending on how you look at it) puts us at 7th or so. We're in a free fall but we have to win eventually. We have the worst losing streak in the NHL right now by the way. So this may be our low and we may end up in the dreadful 12-15th spot or something. Not really elite prospects and the board looks a lot more ambiguous at that point I'm sure.


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03-02-2009, 05:18 PM
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bigG is probably right about my Kaberle trade. It would cost Dallas something more. Probably a guy like Vishnevskiy. Which if Dallas grabs a top defenseman under contract I might be willing to part with him.

As for the top five, I've seen several mock drafts that have Schroeder at 9-11. I would think Taveres, Hedman, Duschene, Cowen, Kane, MSP, and Schenn are all ahead of him.

But really what's wrong with Kaberle? He'd be great in Dallas. A real puck mover who would help the power play out immensely. There are others out there that could be targeted but I have a hard time picturing someone with that reasonable a contract that brings the same skills he does.

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03-02-2009, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by catters078 View Post
i think the top 5 will be occupied by tavares, hedman, cowan, duchene and either schenn or kane...

meaning players like MSP, schroeder and ekman larrson will be available at the 7,8,9 poisiton...

If we are picking at 11 or 12 i think it is worth trying to get in to the top 9 (trading our 1st and a second) to try and get one of those 3..it might be risky...but i actually tend to agree with Alistair, this could be the only draft where we could get a genuine star, dallas will most likely not get another pick in the next 3-4 drafts until 20 or higher..

In terms of giving up assets this could be the "easiest" draft where we could make a move without having to sacrifice too much. I understand the point guys like bigg44 make and how its a deep draft so we may as well keep all our picks and we will still get strong players in the first 3 rounds..

But i think the top 9 in this draft are exceptional talents, it may be a risk to trade up for them, but IMO the potetnial reward would be better than this franchise has had in a long time..it would defintaley be something worth getting excited about
I think catters understands my argument better then I do

yes we could be missing out on a good player or two with the picks we give up, that's the risk you have to take. At the end of the day Dallas would have a real luxury amoung top teams in the NHL - one of the top prospects in the league that can come in and play for relatively cheap in a salary cap world where success is basically determined by who can spend their money the most efficiently.

Let's not also forget that a big move up into the top 6-7 picks could really energize the franchise and the fans. Like catters says - seeing a guy like MSP or Brayden Schenn on the horizon would be something to be excited about

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03-02-2009, 05:40 PM
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my projected mock draft...(if todays draft order was final)

1-NYI-Tavares
2-Atlanta-Hedman
3-Tampa-Cowan
4-Ottawa-Duchene
5-Colorado-MSP
6-Phoenix-Braden Schenn
7-LA-Evander Kane
8-Toronto-Schroeder
9-St Louis- Nazem Kadri
10- Dallas-???? maybe Ekman Larrson

Maybe we could trade up with LA?

oh by the way...havelid definatley not on dallas radar...off to NJ (devils starting to look reeeeallly good)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=3947049

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03-02-2009, 05:43 PM
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It's just a tad premature to even discuss this idea. There's no telling where the Stars will end up picking or what could or might happen to any of the draft eligibles before the Draft.

If the Stars sit around 10, and I don't think they will since Jackson will likely buy and not sell, the cost of moving up to even a couple of spots to grab a guy with a very small higher ceiling than whomever they picked at ten would cost entirely too much. There are at least 14 guys in this draft that are high quality prospects, but after the first two, the rest of the 14 or so prospects have relatively the same ceilings.

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03-02-2009, 05:55 PM
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I think we'd pick Schroeder as an RW with tons of skill personally. And that's who I'd hope we'd pick in the top 10. But an elite D-man isn't going to disappoint me either.

And I sincerely hope you're wrong Chad, buying at the deadline would be ****ing pointless.

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03-02-2009, 05:56 PM
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At this point I think Jackson is more likely to do nothing rather than buy or sell.

I also think Kadri is higher on draft boards than Schroeder. There's also a lot of buzz around Josefson who's been steadily rising on draft boards. Lot's of people question his size (Schroeder) and ability to play up at higher levels of competition.

This question will probably be better asked after the deadline when those that are selling start to look really bad, and teams like Dallas that are struggling, continue to struggle or start to rebound.

These next games @San Jose, @ Los Angeles, @ Anaheim, Montreal, and @ St. Louis, are not very favorable. I could see them going 1-4, with the possibility of going to overtime once or twice.

Sturm was talking on the radio that Vegas has the odds of Dallas over/under 1.5 points on the California road trip. That's depressing.

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