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Re-signing Babchuk and Ruutu: what's it going to take?

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03-01-2009, 08:15 AM
  #1
semin4captain
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Re-signing Babchuk and Ruutu: what's it going to take?

Ruutu (26+28=54 in 79 games)
Is Ruutu leeching off of Staal? Can he continue developing and turn into a first line power forward, or has he topped out as a good second liner? Looking at the big contracts to comparables such as Hartnell and Malone, Ruutu could be looking for a one-year deal so as to be able to cash in on the UFA market.

Prediction: $3M/yr on a one-year deal, 3.25-3.5M/yr on a long-term deal

Babchuk (16+19=35 in 72 games)
Is Babchuk's play over the last month a sign of things to come, or will he regress like Seidenberg has? Can he really be a reliable second-pairing defenseman, or is footspeed too much of an issue to overcome? Puck-moving defensemen are in high demand and Babchuk has size/youth to go along with his offensive ability.

Prediction: 1.5M/yr on a one-year deal, 1.75-2M/yr on a long-term deal.


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03-01-2009, 08:28 AM
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DaveG
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Before his play of late I would have said Babchuk will only require a little more then the QO (which is 1.1 I belive). Now I would safely say that 1.4 is the absolute cheepest I can see him returning for and that would strictly be a one year deal. Bare minimum for a multi-year deal will be in the 1.75 range, going closer to a 2.25 per deal the longer it goes beyond 2 years. My guess is it will be 2.0/3 years.

Ruutu is another interesting one simply because his agent is a pain in the ass when it comes to talks. That said, he wants to be here and likely wants to be here long term. I can see some haggling but there will be no holdout and he'll even be under contract before mid July IMO. My guess is your ranges are about right, and I think it will likely be a 3 year deal as well, probably closer to 3.25 per then 3.5 per.

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03-01-2009, 08:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
That said, he wants to be here and likely wants to be here long term.
I am not quite sure about that. Don't have any proof either way, but i other than cliche interviews the was nothing i recall to make me to believe he would prefer to be here rather than say Detroit or any other winning team.

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03-01-2009, 10:29 AM
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If he is using Malone and Hartnell as comparables then the number is going to be alot closer to 4 million. I love Ruutu but honestly is he a whole lot better than Trent Hunter on the island making 2.7? IMO 3.25-3.5 would be an overpay but he has the advantage of being the only physical presence in the whole Canes organization so he would leave a sizable hole by leaving.
The Babchuk number should be nowhere in the ballpark of 2 million. Komisarek's multiyear deal while he was still and RFA was 1.6. With the cap there has been little inflation so i would view anything over 1.5, even on a 2 year deal, to be an overpayment.

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03-01-2009, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eerodynamic View Post
If he is using Malone and Hartnell as comparables then the number is going to be alot closer to 4 million. I love Ruutu but honestly is he a whole lot better than Trent Hunter on the island making 2.7? IMO 3.25-3.5 would be an overpay but he has the advantage of being the only physical presence in the whole Canes organization so he would leave a sizable hole by leaving.
I was using Malone/Hartnell as examples as to what Ruutu could fetch as a UFA next offseason (if he took a one-year deal), not with us an RFA.

Hunter is actually only making $2.0, but he signed his deal as a 28-year old coming off a season in which he scored 12+29=41 in 82 games. Ruutu is almost already at that point total in 61 games and is two years younger than when Hunter signed.

Quote:
The Babchuk number should be nowhere in the ballpark of 2 million. Komisarek's multiyear deal while he was still and RFA was 1.6. With the cap there has been little inflation so i would view anything over 1.5, even on a 2 year deal, to be an overpayment.
Komisarek's deal was a steal and it didn't eat up any UFA years. He's also a pure defensive defenseman who doesn't put up a lot of points.

The closest comparable I can find to Babchuk in terms of young offensive defensemen is Daniel Girardi, who signed two-year deal for an average of $1.55M coming off a 10+18=28 season.


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03-01-2009, 11:53 AM
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Ruutu's main asset is his RFA status.
If somebody wants to give him 3.5mill per season I say go ahead, I'll gladly take a 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks for compensation.

Then I'll sign Cole for 2.25, and have 1 million left over to hire another Mayor

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03-01-2009, 11:58 AM
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I think it really depends on who, if anyone, we trade/trade for.

I honestly see JR letting all our UFAs walk and try the free market. Don't know why he'd do it, but it seems like something he'd do.

Between Ruutu, Babchuk, LaRose, and Seidenberg, at least two are going.

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03-01-2009, 12:01 PM
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Ruutu and Babchuk are restricted and will certainly be qualified, so that's basically "see ya Chad and Denny" if that's the route JR takes.

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03-01-2009, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Fumble View Post
Ruutu's main asset is his RFA status.
If somebody wants to give him 3.5mill per season I say go ahead, I'll gladly take a 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks for compensation.

Then I'll sign Cole for 2.25, and have 1 million left over to hire another Mayor
Even coming off a horrible season, Cole will still probably get at least $3M on a one-year deal like Satan (3.5M) did.

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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
I think it really depends on who, if anyone, we trade/trade for.

I honestly see JR letting all our UFAs walk and try the free market. Don't know why he'd do it, but it seems like something he'd do.

Between Ruutu, Babchuk, LaRose, and Seidenberg, at least two are going.
It's gotten to a point where I really don't care whether Seidenberg leaves or not.

LaRose is a nice player, but not someone I'd want to get stuck overpaying.

I think those two are for sure gone.

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03-01-2009, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Anton Babchuk View Post
Even coming off a horrible season, Cole will still probably get at least $3M on a one-year deal like Satan (3.5M) did.

It's gotten to a point where I really don't care whether Seidenberg leaves or not.

LaRose is a nice player, but not someone I'd want to get stuck overpaying.

I think those two are for sure gone.
I think we have a decent shot at keeping Chad at a fair value but I agree that he's not someone you overpay. Seids on the other hand... He played so well through much of the year, but the last 2-3 weeks have just been attrocious. He's still a decent bargaining chip so I say we ship him out for picks or prospects or package him with a salary dump for something bigger. It's the way it's gotta be.

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03-01-2009, 12:37 PM
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I know some idiot GM will overpay Larose, but I hope it's not JR. We definitely need to keep Ruutu and Babchuk though. They are good players to build around for the "next generation" Canes.

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03-01-2009, 02:04 PM
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Unless we trade Eaves, I don't see us keeping Larose. We've got Jokinen and Ruutu as RFA's so I say they get signed. And with the other forwards already under contract, LaRose and Bayda get the walking papers.

As for Seidenberg, JR does his normal and goes the cheap route which will be Babchuk. Our top 4 next year will be Gleason, Corvo, Pitkanen, and Babchuk. JR is still in love with his offensive defenseman that he doesn't bring in another shutdown guy to help Gleason. Gleason continues to have brain farts cause all the pressure is on him to shutdown guys.

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03-01-2009, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by caniac247 View Post
Unless we trade Eaves, I don't see us keeping Larose. We've got Jokinen and Ruutu as RFA's so I say they get signed. And with the other forwards already under contract, LaRose and Bayda get the walking papers.
...Which brings me to another issue: Jokinen. He only has 5 points in 11 games, but 4 of those points have come in the last 5 games. He can play any forward position, win face-offs, score in the shootout, kill penalties...the only problem is that his QO would be over $1.8M.

If Jokinen scores at a .5PPG pace for the rest of the season, do you sign him at his QO or let him walk? I'd much rather have Jokinen at his price than Brindy/Walker at theirs, though shedding their salary probably isn't very realistic.

Quote:
As for Seidenberg, JR does his normal and goes the cheap route which will be Babchuk. Our top 4 next year will be Gleason, Corvo, Pitkanen, and Babchuk. JR is still in love with his offensive defenseman that he doesn't bring in another shutdown guy to help Gleason. Gleason continues to have brain farts cause all the pressure is on him to shutdown guys.
Gleason continues to have brain farts because he's not very good. He's overrated and overpaid. I'd trade him if the right offer came along.

Anton Babchuk will be the superior player to Tim Gleason in the future, possibly even as soon as next year.

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03-01-2009, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Anton Babchuk View Post
...Which brings me to another issue: Jokinen. He only has 5 points in 11 games, but 4 of those points have come in the last 5 games. He can play any forward position, win face-offs, score in the shootout, kill penalties...the only problem is that his QO would be over $1.8M.

If Jokinen scores at a .5PPG pace for the rest of the season, do you sign him at his QO or let him walk? I'd much rather have Jokinen at his price than Brindy/Walker at theirs, though shedding their salary probably isn't very realistic.

Gleason continues to have brain farts because he's not very good. He's overrated and overpaid. I'd trade him if the right offer came along.

Anton Babchuk will be the superior player to Tim Gleason in the future, possibly even as soon as next year.
That's not really fair. I think it's the case of Tim getting frustrated and trying to do too much. I think he ust needs to realize that all we want from him is to be a rock on the back-end. I don't think any of us would care if he ever ventured past the center line. He's not a point producer or offensive catalyst and he never will be. Develop a decent first pass and I'll be ok with it. I just want him to be a mean SOB of a shutdown d-man. No more, no less.

KISS timmy, KISS!

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03-01-2009, 10:35 PM
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I like Jokinen, but at near 2 million dollars I'd let him walk unless he shows he really deserves it the rest of the year. The last thing we need is another crappy contract.

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03-01-2009, 10:38 PM
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Tuomo Ruutu will almost certainly be retained. I think Carolina would like to have him for the long term and Ruutu would like to have Carolina. I think this is a situation where a home team discount should be in order. I know he has been a notorious tough sign, but he's not going to let his agent hard ball him out of Carolina. He was unhappy in Chicago because he couldn't stay healthy there and the support from the fans obviously became more strained the more time he missed. It has been night and day from that experience here. He is enthusiastic now about his future. Plus, with long time friend Joni Pitkanen being locked up for a few more years he has motivation to stay on that front as well. I really think this area suits Scandinavians quite well. There is a certain amount of home here with the amount of friendly faces you encounter and the Swedes and Fins are both very big on that.

For Ruutu, I think the conversation from a Carolina standpoint starts at 3 years for $3 million per season. I think the final number may be something around 3 years for $10 million. Both sides should be fairly happy with that. Both sides take a risk on that contract. I think it is important to note Ruutu's injury history prior to coming here as a reason that he couldn't fetch the kind of coin that Ryan Malone or Scott Hartnell could fetch. Both of those players look like models of health compared to Ruutu, who at one point considered retirement due to his never ceasing injury history.

Anton Babchuk will probably get $2 million on a long term contract. I doubt that Carolina will allow him to continue to sign by the year. They're going to need him contracted at least through next season when a bulk of our defense comes off the books. 2 years minimum on this contract. I think he'll prove to be worth it. If they're smart they'll try to get him locked up for 3 or 4 years, but I highly doubt his agent lets him take a deal like that.

Jussi Jokinen is an interesting situation. Most people here are assuming there are two options. Either give him his QO or let him walk. Those aren't the only options. We have from the end of the season until June 26th to work out a contract with Jokinen if we want to keep him and that could even mean him taking a cut in pay which is what he'll take on the open market anyways. I have it on good authority that this is indeed an option and the mandatory raise for RFAs does not apply to those free agents that negotiate under it. The mandatory increase in his salary would only be if we failed to reach a contract with him and still wanted to retain his rights. He would be under contract with us regardless if we met the QO. If we reach an impasse with Jokinen we could just throw the QO on him the day before the deadline and keep him another year. However, that move is highly unlikely with his salary considered. I could see Carolina extending a 2 year $2.5 million contract to him to see if he'd take that to stay in Carolina with his fellow countrymen. I am still VERY convinced that Jokinen could be utilized better by being given more powerplay time with our first unit but even without that he has proven his worth.

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03-01-2009, 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Caner Soze View Post
I like Jokinen, but at near 2 million dollars I'd let him walk unless he shows he really deserves it the rest of the year. The last thing we need is another crappy contract.
If we walked away from his qualifying amount, nobody else on the open market would match it. He cleared waivers this season at 10% less than what his qualifying offer would be. He hasn't shown enough here to convince anybody that he's the second coming. If it comes down to giving his QO or walking, I think Carolina and every other team in the league walks away. It wouldn't be prudent for Jokinen to not get a contract done with Carolina for less than his QO prior to the start of free agency. He could very well get lost in the shuffle and end up without NHL interest considering that by July 1st date teams have mostly finished up their list of who to contact and for what amount.

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03-02-2009, 11:39 AM
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I can see a 4 year, 12-14 million dollar deal for Ruutu.
Babchuk Deserves what Frank Kaberle got, 4 years, 8.8 million.

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03-02-2009, 12:00 PM
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Babchuk Deserves what Frank Kaberle got, 4 years, 8.8 million.
Based on Anton's cup run and multiple years playing in the top 4??.... oh wait. Dont confuse what Kaberle earned in 06 with what he currently deserves.

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03-02-2009, 12:16 PM
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Based on Anton's cup run and multiple years playing in the top 4??.... oh wait. Dont confuse what Kaberle earned in 06 with what he currently deserves.
What the hell does saying he should get a contract similar to Kaberle have to do with what Kaberle is worth or what Babchuk has done in the past? Four Years and Close to 9 million is very fair for Babchuk, especially since it could be a back-loaded contract. Its well below the going rate for defenseman of babchuks potential.

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03-02-2009, 12:32 PM
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i hope your not running any business im involved with. Your willing to pay above his comparables just based on potential. He just reached 150 games played. He has never played above 60 games in a season(though likely this season). He has never broke the 20 point mark(though likely this season.) He has only been successful for one coach, who wont be here next season. Even if this wasnt a small market team I wouldnt pay him 2.2 per year just to buy out a couple FA years. We havent even seen him play 1 full consistent season and you want to give him 2.2 million for mulitple years.


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03-02-2009, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
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i hope your not running any business im involved with. Your willing to pay above his comparables just based on potential. He just reached 150 games played. He has never played above 60 games in a season(though likely this season). He has never broke the 20 point mark(though likely this season.) He has only been successful for one coach, who wont be here next season. Even if this wasnt a small market team I wouldnt pay him 2.2 per year just to buy out a couple FA years. We havent even seen him play 1 full consistent season and you want to give him 2.2 million for mulitple years.
http://nhlpa.com/WebStats/PlayerBiography.asp?ID=7107

The market for defensemen is crazy.

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03-02-2009, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by KILLger View Post
http://nhlpa.com/WebStats/PlayerBiography.asp?ID=7107

The market for defensemen is crazy.
Not that I disagree that it's a bad market, but he was also a UFA. As an RFA he wouldn't have gotten half that from Colorado. Probably not even a third of that.

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03-02-2009, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Caniac12 View Post
What the hell does saying he should get a contract similar to Kaberle have to do with what Kaberle is worth or what Babchuk has done in the past? Four Years and Close to 9 million is very fair for Babchuk, especially since it could be a back-loaded contract. Its well below the going rate for defenseman of babchuks potential.
Kaberle got paid after the 06' season for what he displayed at the time. What has Babchuk done to warrant a contract like Kaberle received after a 40+ point season and a few in his career of around 30? And if we were to give Babchuk a back-loaded contract lke you said of 4 years in total of close to 9 million, I sure as hell hope he pans out or we're stuck with another contract that chances are we would have a hard time getting rid of.

Babchuk needs to be paid for what he has done and shown to date. I wouldn't tie Babchuk up to a 3-4 year deal because while he does have some potential, he isn't a slam dunk to reach that potential. It would be idiotic to invest that money and years in him until he shows more promise of hitting his stide as a permanent top 4 man.

This team cannot afford to dish out a contract based on 'potential' only to get ***** on because that player could never reach it.

Babchuk in my opinion deserves another deal at around what he is making right now and at the most 1.2 (Like Seidenberg). If he proves his worth then we lock him up. I would hate like hell for this team to gamble on Babchuk and tie him up for 4 years and close to 9 million. We're dealing with enough contracts right now that have our hands tied, we don't need another. Let's learn a lesson or two.


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03-03-2009, 12:27 AM
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semin4captain
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Four years is just dumb and it's those type of contracts that got us where we are today: NO flexibility to do anything. We have so many stupid, stupid long-term deals on this team that it's beyond ridiculous. No need to add another one.

EDIT: After doing some research, it appears that I am wrong in the case of Babchuk being a UFA after next season. You have to be on the NHL roster for at least 40 games for it to account as an "accrued season" (the only exception is the lockout year, which counts as one). So Babchuk's 03-04 and 07-08 seasons do not count. In that case, I'm all in favor for giving him a one-year deal.


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