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Predict John Mitchell's potential

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Old
03-07-2009, 01:59 AM
  #101
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To be honest, I'd much rather have a player like John Mitchell than Matt Stajan and Grabovski..but thats probably just personal preference.
I think thats more of a reflection as to how poor Stajan and Grabovski are as opposed to how good Mitchell is lol.

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03-07-2009, 02:00 AM
  #102
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I know, right? Whats next, A Tim "The Stapler" Stapleton Tribute Thread?

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03-07-2009, 02:00 AM
  #103
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So if we had a goalie like Jonas Hiller (920 save percentage) or Pekka Rinne (923 sv percentage), wed be stanley cup champs?
No, better...a dynasty

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03-07-2009, 02:06 AM
  #104
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Well that depends on your definition of "damn good team", if it is 7-11, perhaps, but if it is 6 and above I must disagree, I could be wrong but I dont see it at all.
I don't know about placeholdings, but they're pretty damn good when they get the goaltending.


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Dont misunderstand me, I dont think Vesa has benn his best this season either, and at times has been just plain awful, but as I have argued before, alot of that (imo) is due to the fact that we played poor defense for much of the season.
I have to disagree here - Toskala's been letting the defense down, not vice versa.

Apparently, though, at least we have a reason for it - he was injured.

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Individually, they are all, for the most part, average to below average players, but for some reason unbeknownst to me they continually pile up points as a unit, maybe its our mobile D, shoot and attack the net mentality, or even RW, I dont know, but it doesnt change the fact that the talent on this team is severly lacking, or that Poni and Stajan are top 6 forwards...
I don't know what "average to below average" player means.

We don't have any elite forwards, but we had a couple proven lower-tier first liners in Blake and Antropov, and a whole wack of players who were clearly better than the average 3rd liners in this league, and all capable of being legit 2nd line producers.

The reason unbeknownst to you is that you underrate their offensive ability in comparison to the other teams in the league.

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They haven't done it in 3 years, why expect them to do it now? And not to point the finger or be overly critical, but is does seem as if every year there is an excuse associated with the franchise so as to explain there failures, rather then look at the big picture. Since the lockout I have heard everything from; coaching, lack of an elite winger for Sundin, defensive depth and now goaltending. At some point you need to except that this isnt a championship calibre team, and apparently its not a playoff calibre team either, but anyway thats just my two cents.
This isn't about making excuses.

This is about correctly diagnosing the problems with the team, so you can fix what's broken.

If you don't correctly diagnose the problem, you end up with the wrong solution.

In this case, as per usual, our goaltending was mucho overrated, which led to the rest of our team being severly underrated and undervalued. So Fletcher thought Toskala was part of the solution, and others like McCabe were part of the problem - when the truth was the opposite. Another problem was that Sundin was overrated, and his supporting cast was underrated - which led to the idea that this team was Sundin or bust, and that to get rid of him meant leaving us with no talent whatsoever up front, so that him being old meant we were FORCED to rebuild. The truth is, while he had nobody else that was quite as good at him, Sundin had a solid and deep supporting cast of secondary talent - and they showed as much every time he as injured as a leaf, and they continued to win.

There's a cold dose of truth here - you can scrap everything, rebuild for the next five years.....and your new and improved team will still have holes in it, and you won't win a cup for a few years in a row - and you'll have to correctly diagnose those holes and fill them....unless you're happy with just scrapping the whole thing again, and starting from scratch again.

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03-07-2009, 02:07 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by MSP4LYFE View Post
No, better...a dynasty
Jason Blake with the Conn Smythe

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03-07-2009, 02:09 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Superstar View Post
Dang, this is what happens when we don't have an Ovechkin, we get delusional by "singing" the praises of a Joni Mitchell -- I mean John.
Yeah, you're right - Washington fans only talk about Ovechkin.

They would never bother talking about the upside of a young rookie 3rd liner like, say, Brooks Laich or anything. Nobody would talk about that guy.

So Leafs fans better not talk about their young depth players. oh no.

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03-07-2009, 02:10 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by bcool View Post
So if we had a goalie like Jonas Hiller (920 save percentage) or Pekka Rinne (923 sv percentage), wed be stanley cup champs?
We'd be in the playoffs.

comfortably.

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03-07-2009, 02:14 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
We'd be in the playoffs.

comfortably.
Ill assume comfortably would be around where Philadelphia is right now or higher...if you scrap the goaltending, do you actually think were just as good as the Flyers?

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03-07-2009, 02:16 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
A poster friend on another board (which you're invited to, btw, Ulf - not so many krazy kids over there, with more reasonable and informative discussion) has been keeping track of this all season....I'll steal from him.....

Over 900: 20-3-7 (128 pt pace)
Under 900: 6-23-6 (42 pt pace)

Above 920: 14-2-4 (131 pt pace)
910-919: 1-1-1 (82 pt pace)
900-909: 5-0-2 (141 pt pace)
890-899: 0-2-1 (28 pt pace)
Below 889: 6-21-5 (44 pt pace)

It's really quite remarkable. If we get even .890 save percentage from our goalies, we're 20-5-8 (119 pt pace).

When you pair that with the fact that everyone realizes that Toskala has played significantly better after sitting out those two games (and Gerber continued that strong play last night)...and that we're undefeated since Toskala turned it around....not sure we have any choice but to make a simple conclusion - this team is pretty good.
I read this and I couldn't help but laugh, it's the funniest thing I've read in awhile. So your saying if we face 36 plus shots a night and let in 4 goals, we're pretty good? Of course John Mitchell could pop 4 or 5 for us a night.

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03-07-2009, 02:19 AM
  #110
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I don't know about placeholdings, but they're pretty damn good when they get the goaltending.
Well our success since the lockout suggests otherwise, and quite frankly, stats or not you will have a very hard time selling this team off as half decent, nevermin "pretty damn good."


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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
I have to disagree here - Toskala's been letting the defense down, not vice versa.

Apparently, though, at least we have a reason for it - he was injured.
This is a matter of opinion, one we apparently do not see eye to eye on, so I suggest we agree to disagree.

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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
I don't know what "average to below average" player means.
Borderline top 6 material, with the excpetion of Blake, who is clearly a top line forward when he wants to be.

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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
We don't have any elite forwards, but we had a couple proven lower-tier first liners in Blake and Antropov, and a whole wack of players who were clearly better than the average 3rd liners in this league, and all capable of being legit 2nd line producers.

The reason unbeknownst to you is that you underrate their offensive ability in comparison to the other teams in the league.
The mere fact that two of our three top scorers (Moore and Antro) were dealt for seconds (which Burke claimed he was lucky to get) and our leading scorer is deemed untradeable should speaks volumes as to what there true value is, but of course professional scouts and executives are underrating our players as well. Either that or they haven't seen the stat sheets

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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
This isn't about making excuses.

This is about correctly diagnosing the problems with the team, so you can fix what's broken.
If you don't correctly diagnose the problem, you end up with the wrong solution.

In this case, as per usual, our goaltending was mucho overrated, which led to the rest of our team being severly underrated and undervalued. So Fletcher thought Toskala was part of the solution, and others like McCabe were part of the problem - when the truth was the opposite. Another problem was that Sundin was overrated, and his supporting cast was underrated - which led to the idea that this team was Sundin or bust, and that to get rid of him meant leaving us with no talent whatsoever up front, so that him being old meant we were FORCED to rebuild. The truth is, while he had nobody else that was quite as good at him, Sundin had a solid and deep supporting cast of secondary talent - and they showed as much every time he as injured as a leaf, and they continued to win.
Agreed, which is why we are rebuilding...

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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
There's a cold dose of truth here - you can scrap everything, rebuild for the next five years.....and your new and improved team will still have holes in it, and you won't win a cup for a few years in a row - and you'll have to correctly diagnose those holes and fill them....unless you're happy with just scrapping the whole thing again, and starting from scratch again.
Absolutely, but as a fan of this team I would much prefer a championship calibre team with holes, then a sinking ship with plugs/bandaids.

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03-07-2009, 02:24 AM
  #111
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Ill assume comfortably would be around where Philadelphia is right now or higher...if you scrap the goaltending, do you actually think were just as good as the Flyers?
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Originally Posted by Superstar View Post
I read this and I couldn't help but laugh, it's the funniest thing I've read in awhile. So your saying if we face 36 plus shots a night and let in 4 goals, we're pretty good? Of course John Mitchell could pop 4 or 5 for us a night.
Zeke puts too much stock into stats, the Flyers and Caps are teams that would be darn good with goaltending, the leafs on the other hand are a team that would be slightly less worse with good goaltending, but the stats no more then RW, Burke, professional scouts and analysts alike, who have all deemed this team as being in eed of restructuring and not tweaking, b/c they are only one piece away from being "damn good."

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03-07-2009, 02:31 AM
  #112
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Ill assume comfortably would be around where Philadelphia is right now or higher...if you scrap the goaltending, do you actually think were just as good as the Flyers?
That doesn't make sense.

The Flyers aren't getting the kind of goaltending that Hiller and Rinne are giving this year - if they were, the Flyers would be competing for top spot.

So if we were getting Hiller/Rinne goaltending, we'd have a big edge on the Flyers in net, and wouldn't need to be as good in the rest of the roster.

But, in terms of the rest of the roster, our defense corps is much better than the Flyers' defense corps, but we can't match up their forwards at all.

But we compare fine to a team like the Canadiens, for example. And, like them, when receiving top-notch goaltending, we're pretty darn good.

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03-07-2009, 02:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Superstar View Post
I read this and I couldn't help but laugh, it's the funniest thing I've read in awhile. So your saying if we face 36 plus shots a night and let in 4 goals, we're pretty good? Of course John Mitchell could pop 4 or 5 for us a night.
Does anyone else understand what Superstar is saying here?

What does this have to do with what I posted?

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03-07-2009, 02:34 AM
  #114
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That doesn't make sense.

The Flyers aren't getting the kind of goaltending that Hiller and Rinne are giving this year - if they were, the Flyers would be competing for top spot.

So if we were getting Hiller/Rinne goaltending, we'd have a big edge on the Flyers in net, and wouldn't need to be as good in the rest of the roster.

But, in terms of the rest of the roster, our defense corps is much better than the Flyers' defense corps, but we can't match up their forwards at all.

But we compare fine to a team like the Canadiens, for example. And, like them, when receiving top-notch goaltending, we're pretty darn good.
I would love it if you could call into a radio show when Brian Burke or one of his executives is one and tell them that you think we are comparable to the Montreal Canadiens.

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03-07-2009, 02:35 AM
  #115
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That doesn't make sense.

The Flyers aren't getting the kind of goaltending that Hiller and Rinne are giving this year - if they were, the Flyers would be competing for top spot.

So if we were getting Hiller/Rinne goaltending, we'd have a big edge on the Flyers in net, and wouldn't need to be as good in the rest of the roster.

But, in terms of the rest of the roster, our defense corps is much better than the Flyers' defense corps, but we can't match up their forwards at all.

But we compare fine to a team like the Canadiens, for example. And, like them, when receiving top-notch goaltending, we're pretty darn good.
Nittymakki and Biron's save percentage is .913 and .911 respectively.

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03-07-2009, 02:37 AM
  #116
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Well our success since the lockout suggests otherwise, and quite frankly, stats or not you will have a very hard time selling this team off as half decent, nevermin "pretty damn good."
Actually, our success since the lockout suggest the very same thing.

Because the Leafs have managed to put up an average record every season, even though every year they've received bottom-5 goaltending.

THis would mean, of course, that even with average goaltending, the Leafs would have been a well above average team in each of the last few seasons.



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The mere fact that two of our three top scorers (Moore and Antro) were dealt for seconds (which Burke claimed he was lucky to get) and our leading scorer is deemed untradeable should speaks volumes as to what there true value is, but of course professional scouts and executives are underrating our players as well. Either that or they haven't seen the stat sheets
Just like McCabe and Colaiacovo before him, Antropov has also been severely underrated, and we were unable to get a good return on him.

And, just like McCabe and Colaiacovo before him, Antropov will once again start getting the credit he finally deserves, only after leaving.

This is exactly the problem with ahving a losing environment - all your players get underrated.



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Absolutely, but as a fan of this team I would much prefer a championship calibre team with holes, then a sinking ship with plugs/bandaids.
If recent history has shown us anything, it's the difference between a "championship calibre team with holes" and a "sinking ship with plugs/bandaids", is far, far smaller than people realize.

Look at how Boston has risen from the ashes this year, and look at how Montreal and Anaheim have fallen.

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03-07-2009, 02:41 AM
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yea, 3-4 years down the road
Jason Arnott scored 33 goals in his rookie season on a decrepit offense in Edmonton.

Good lord.

What's next? Tim Stapleton as Shane Doan?

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03-07-2009, 02:41 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by bcool View Post
Nittymakki and Biron's save percentage is .913 and .911 respectively.
Which is a good deal lower than the .920 and .923 save percentages you gave me to work with.

.920+ save percentages are amazing.

If you asked me what the Leafs would look like with .910 save percentages, it would still be good, but not as good as they'd look with a .920.

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03-07-2009, 02:42 AM
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I would love it if you could call into a radio show when Brian Burke or one of his executives is one and tell them that you think we are comparable to the Montreal Canadiens.
just watch where the two teams finish this year.

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03-07-2009, 02:44 AM
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Originally Posted by hemskyforpm View Post
Jason Arnott scored 33 goals in his rookie season on a decrepit offense in Edmonton.

Good lord.

What's next? Tim Stapleton as Shane Doan?
How about this? - I think Mitchell can become the next R.J.Umberger.

And maybe better.

perhaps even the next Shawn Horcoff.

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03-07-2009, 02:46 AM
  #121
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Actually, our success since the lockout suggest the very same thing.

Because the Leafs have managed to put up an average record every season, even though every year they've received bottom-5 goaltending.

THis would mean, of course, that even with average goaltending, the Leafs would have been a well above average team in each of the last few seasons.

Have you ever once considered that maybe just maybe it wasnt al the goaltenders fault?



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Just like McCabe and Colaiacovo before him, Antropov has also been severely underrated, and we were unable to get a good return on him.

And, just like McCabe and Colaiacovo before him, Antropov will once again start getting the credit he finally deserves, only after leaving.

This is exactly the problem with ahving a losing environment - all your players get underrated.

Thats a lame reason. Look at Tucker, Mccabe, Steen, Colaicovo and Raycroft...With the excpetion of Cola who we all knew was talented (it was only a matter of injuries) everyone is preforming as expected, if not worse, and dont bring up Mccabe, he is the 3/4 defenceman on a fringe playoff team in Florida...


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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
If recent history has shown us anything, it's the difference between a "championship calibre team with holes" and a "sinking ship with plugs/bandaids", is far, far smaller than people realize.

Look at how Boston has risen from the ashes this year, and look at how Montreal and Anaheim have fallen.
That doesn't even make any sense, and wasnt it you I was arguing with in the summer about Boston? Where I thought they were contenders and on the cusp of greatness and you tried to argue the leafs were just as good? Correct me if wrong, but im pretty sure that was you.

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03-07-2009, 02:47 AM
  #122
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just watch where the two teams finish this year.
They could finish lower then the leafs and it wouldn't change a damn thing, but fine I will watch where the two teams finish, just for the sake of argument.

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03-07-2009, 02:51 AM
  #123
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Which is a good deal lower than the .920 and .923 save percentages you gave me to work with.

.920+ save percentages are amazing.

If you asked me what the Leafs would look like with .910 save percentages, it would still be good, but not as good as they'd look with a .920.
According to your save percentage breakdown, anything over .900 would put us at a 128 point pace. 128 points or anything remotely close to that would put any team "comfortably" in the playoffs.

I think we'd both agree that Philly and higher is pretty comfortably in playoff position.

If everything I just said is true, the Leafs MUST have just a good a team (minus the goaltending since were saying both the flyers and the leafs do/will have +.900 sv percentages) as the flyers. Am i wrong?

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03-07-2009, 02:54 AM
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Have you ever once considered that maybe just maybe it wasnt al the goaltenders fault?
I have considered all possibilities, and it's clear from all evidence, that the play of Belfour, Raycroft, Toskala, and various crappy backups since the lockout has been amongst the worst goaltending in the league.


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Thats a lame reason. Look at Tucker, Mccabe, Steen, Colaicovo and Raycroft...With the excpetion of Cola who we all knew was talented (it was only a matter of injuries) everyone is preforming as expected, if not worse, and dont bring up Mccabe, he is the 3/4 defenceman on a fringe playoff team in Florida...
No, McCabe he is the #2 defenseman on a team that has steadily risen up the standings since he came back from injury, and has been a 100-point pace team ever since he returned.

Steen is demonstrating that he's every bit as good as Stempniak, despite not being considered good enough to be traded for him one-up.

Raycroft is showing that he sucks balls, and that it wasn't the Leafs' team fault that he sucked balls. he just sucked balls.


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That doesn't even make any sense, and wasnt it you I was arguing with in the summer about Boston? Where I thought they were contenders and on the cusp of greatness and you tried to argue the leafs were just as good? Correct me if wrong, but im pretty sure that was you.
I have no idea what you're talking about. If you predicted Boston's rise this year, than good for you. A great example of how quickly a team can rise from the depths, without needing to tank for top-5 picks.


I'm honestly surprised - Boston stunk last year, doesn't have any top-5 picks.....and you still predicted them to be contenders.

So in your eyes, a team CAN become a contender quickly without tanking for years.

So why are you so obsessed with tanking? Why don't we just do what Boston did? The team you predicted would be a contender?

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03-07-2009, 03:00 AM
  #125
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Originally Posted by bcool View Post
According to your save percentage breakdown, anything over .900 would put us at a 128 point pace. 128 points or anything remotely close to that would put any team "comfortably" in the playoffs.

I think we'd both agree that Philly and higher is pretty comfortably in playoff position.

If everything I just said is true, the Leafs MUST have just a good a team (minus the goaltending since were saying both the flyers and the leafs do/will have +.900 sv percentages) as the flyers. Am i wrong?
No, you're just reading the stats wrong, and overinterpreting them.

Those are the numbers for each game of .900sv% or more and vice versa.

But no team gets over .900sv% in every single game. Even if you have great goaltending, you still have many games with a save percentage under .900.

If you're asking me how the leafs would do if they never, ever received a save percentage lower than .900 in any single game - well, yeah, they'd be a helluva team.

of course, that's impossible.

To read those stats properly, we'd compare to a team with a more normal distribution of .900+ games and -.900 games, and then adjust the leafs' record accordingly.

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