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04-03-2009, 02:56 PM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
I think Utley may be a little low, but don't forget, he came out of the gate just ludicrously hot, which I think more than made up for the slow finish, as far as stats are concerned.
I dunno, I'd expect him to at least repeat the performance.

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04-03-2009, 02:57 PM
  #127
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Yeah, but he was 8th last year.

Also, how the hell do they have Utley at 55.8? He was at 63.5 last year and that was with playing with a bum hip.

I mean, I think Reyes is a great player, but given his consistent choking in clutch months (.243 in Sept 2008, .205 in Sept 2007), I'd rank him from 15-20 among MLB players (including pitchers), 4 seems excessively high.
Given that the season is played in April, May, June, July, and August, too...that seems like a narrow definition of what Reyes provides.

Last year he was 5th in runs, and 4th the year before in the NL.
Last year he had 56 SB (2nd), and 78 (1st) the year before.

Also plays SS, a premium position...Reyes is most certainly one of the most valuable players in baseball. Also a guy that is lots of fun to watch play the sport of baseball if you remove the shenanigans (which, unfortunately, you can't).

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04-03-2009, 03:04 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Baseball prospectus projects Reyes to be 4th among all hitters in VORP with 68.4, so that assertion is not as ridiculous as you make it out to be. (for reference, Chase Utley is the highest Phillie sitting at 8th with 55.8)
Utley had a 63.7 last year with a busted hip for half the season. He had a 70.5 in 2007 and 65.9 in 2006. I see no reason why he can't repeat those kinds of numbers.

I do think that BP probably factored in that Utley wouldn't be playing the entire year, since they have a 6% decrease in Attrition Rate...which is just the factor in decline with age (Utley is the middle of his prime) and a factor for time missed for injuries.

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04-03-2009, 03:09 PM
  #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Given that the season is played in April, May, June, July, and August, too...that seems like a narrow definition of what Reyes provides.

Last year he was 5th in runs, and 4th the year before in the NL.
Last year he had 56 SB (2nd), and 78 (1st) the year before.

Also plays SS, a premium position...Reyes is most certainly one of the most valuable players in baseball. Also a guy that is lots of fun to watch play the sport of baseball if you remove the shenanigans (which, unfortunately, you can't).
I said I'd rank him in the top 15-20. But when you add in the choking and shenanigans (which can't be popular among some Mets players), I can find 15 guys I'd take over him.

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04-03-2009, 10:30 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
I said I'd rank him in the top 15-20. But when you add in the choking and shenanigans (which can't be popular among some Mets players), I can find 15 guys I'd take over him.
The shenanigans are aesthetics, they have absolutely nothing to do with actually playing the sport of baseball. Reyes and Ramirez are probably the two best offensive shortstops (and Ramirez won't be a SS for long it seems), which is one of the most important defensive positions in the sport. The choking (which similar to clutch...doesn't really exist) doesn't really matter outside of a small subset of the season...which I honestly think has more to do with the fact that the guy does so much the entire season and doesn't exactly have the most hardy physique.

Regardless, placing him that high isn't some ridiculous statement by anyone.

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04-03-2009, 10:32 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The shenanigans are aesthetics, they have absolutely nothing to do with actually playing the sport of baseball. Reyes and Ramirez are probably the two best offensive shortstops (and Ramirez won't be a SS for long it seems), which is one of the most important defensive positions in the sport. The choking (which similar to clutch...doesn't really exist) doesn't really matter outside of a small subset of the season...which I honestly think has more to do with the fact that the guy does so much the entire season and doesn't exactly have the most hardy physique.

Regardless, placing him that high isn't some ridiculous statement by anyone.
Reyes is, essentially, the perfect leadoff man. And I could care less if he pointed at the sky rounding the bases after a home run.

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04-03-2009, 10:36 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Reyes is, essentially, the perfect leadoff man. And I could care less if he pointed at the sky rounding the bases after a home run.
He needs to improve the OBP some before you can put that label on him. A .355 OBP isn't that impressive for a leadoff guy. Reyes certainly does damage once you put him on the basepath, but he needs to get out there more.

While I absolutely loathe the dancing/high-fiving/hysterics that he does whilst playing the game, he's my favorite baseball player to watch do "baseball things." His ability to run the bases is simply spectacular to watch (I mean, seriously, he went 1st to home against the Phils in less than 10 s...that's absurd).

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04-03-2009, 10:39 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
He needs to improve the OBP some before you can put that label on him. A .355 OBP isn't that impressive for a leadoff guy. Reyes certainly does damage once you put him on the basepath, but he needs to get out there more.

While I absolutely loathe the dancing/high-fiving/hysterics that he does whilst playing the game, he's my favorite baseball player to watch do "baseball things." His ability to run the bases is simply spectacular to watch (I mean, seriously, he went 1st to home against the Phils in less than 10 s...that's absurd).
He's only 26, I bet he improves his patience. And no one does damage on the base paths like he does.

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04-03-2009, 10:42 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
He's only 26, I bet he improves his patience. And no one does damage on the base paths like he does.
Maybe. That was the argument with Rollins, and he's remained consistently mediocre in that regard. They just don't train the hitters to do the classic "leadoff" hitting approach like they used to...you also don't get paid for that. Thus, guys area kind of reluctant to go up there and take lots of pitches--they want to yank 20 HR.

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04-03-2009, 10:46 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Maybe. That was the argument with Rollins, and he's remained consistently mediocre in that regard. They just don't train the hitters to do the classic "leadoff" hitting approach like they used to...you also don't get paid for that. Thus, guys area kind of reluctant to go up there and take lots of pitches--they want to yank 20 HR.
I was just looking at it most of the big OBP guys are middle of the order anyhow. I guess, I should qualify it and say he's the prototypical modern leadoff hitter.

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04-03-2009, 10:54 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
I was just looking at it most of the big OBP guys are middle of the order anyhow. I guess, I should qualify it and say he's the prototypical modern leadoff hitter.
Yep, but what's interesting about it is the next leadoff guy that hits .300, sees a ton of pitches, has a .400+ OBP and steals bases should get a huge contract...at which point, you'll start to see those guys return to the game.

I'm firmly convinced that the contracts are what has skewed the types of players we see in this direction.

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04-03-2009, 11:02 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yep, but what's interesting about it is the next leadoff guy that hits .300, sees a ton of pitches, has a .400+ OBP and steals bases should get a huge contract...at which point, you'll start to see those guys return to the game.

I'm firmly convinced that the contracts are what has skewed the types of players we see in this direction.
Kinsler and Sizemore are the only guys I can think of who lead off and get on base at that kind of clip. And Sizemore is hardly traditional.

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04-03-2009, 11:09 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Kinsler and Sizemore are the only guys I can think of who lead off and get on base at that kind of clip. And Sizemore is hardly traditional.
Yeah, both have more power than the traditional leadoff guy...so don't really work. Kinsler is closer, and clearly a very valuable player.

I just really would like to see what would happen if you had a guy like that. Juan Pierre was that for a couple of years, but he fell off the cliff so quickly that it's hard to really use him as an example.

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04-03-2009, 11:12 PM
  #139
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Yeah, both have more power than the traditional leadoff guy...so don't really work. Kinsler is closer, and clearly a very valuable player.

I just really would like to see what would happen if you had a guy like that. Juan Pierre was that for a couple of years, but he fell off the cliff so quickly that it's hard to really use him as an example.
But Pierre is forever forgiven, because the Dodgers pretending that he had to power to carry a corner spot was one of the most continuously amusing parts of last season.

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04-03-2009, 11:19 PM
  #140
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But Pierre is forever forgiven, because the Dodgers pretending that he had to power to carry a corner spot was one of the most continuously amusing parts of last season.
I can't tell you how much I wish we had him coming off of our bench. When they were talking about him maybe being available for trade last year I was salivating.

We have a tough lineup, but if you put someone like him on our bench we would have been a nightmare team to face in the latter innings (also would have been an excellent defensive replacement).

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04-03-2009, 11:21 PM
  #141
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I can't tell you how much I wish we had him coming off of our bench. When they were talking about him maybe being available for trade last year I was salivating.

We have a tough lineup, but if you put someone like him on our bench we would have been a nightmare team to face in the latter innings (also would have been an excellent defensive replacement).
The Dodgers would've had to eat a huge part of his salary for me to consider that, and do so over the three remaining years.

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04-03-2009, 11:26 PM
  #142
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The Dodgers would've had to eat a huge part of his salary for me to consider that, and do so over the three remaining years.
Moot point now.

Though, I have a feeling it's going to be an interesting year for the Phils in the OF. I think at least one of Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth is going to stumble this year (just the way it goes it seems), and we'll end up doing some scavenging at some point. I hope they don't end up regretting letting Jenkins go (a guy I think was a great clubhouse presence, and I'm not convinced is done as far as being able to hit righties).

All this being said, the Phils are gravy this season...they can do no wrong.

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04-03-2009, 11:28 PM
  #143
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Moot point now.

Though, I have a feeling it's going to be an interesting year for the Phils in the OF. I think at least one of Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth is going to stumble this year (just the way it goes it seems), and we'll end up doing some scavenging at some point. I hope they don't end up regretting letting Jenkins go (a guy I think was a great clubhouse presence, and I'm not convinced is done as far as being able to hit righties).

All this being said, the Phils are gravy this season...they can do no wrong.
Im not sold on Ibanez, myself.

And they could go 0-162 and I'd probably be content.

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04-03-2009, 11:36 PM
  #144
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Moot point now.

Though, I have a feeling it's going to be an interesting year for the Phils in the OF. I think at least one of Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth is going to stumble this year (just the way it goes it seems), and we'll end up doing some scavenging at some point. I hope they don't end up regretting letting Jenkins go (a guy I think was a great clubhouse presence, and I'm not convinced is done as far as being able to hit righties).

All this being said, the Phils are gravy this season...they can do no wrong.
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I will actually be pretty shocked if we can make the playoffs this year. I'm expecting a WS hangover, and I think the Mets are going to have a very good year this year. That said, I don't think that Mets team is built to last all that long...as they have some arms I'm expecting to see explode in the next couple years.
Big long term deals to relievers is always a bad idea.

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04-03-2009, 11:37 PM
  #145
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Im not sold on Ibanez, myself.

And they could go 0-162 and I'd probably be content.
I will actually be pretty shocked if we can make the playoffs this year. I'm expecting a WS hangover, and I think the Mets are going to have a very good year this year. That said, I don't think that Mets team is built to last all that long...as they have some arms I'm expecting to see explode in the next couple years.

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04-04-2009, 07:09 AM
  #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Im not sold on Ibanez, myself.

And they could go 0-162 and I'd probably be content.
Ibanez did have a great spring though. I also am skeptical but I could see him breaking out as well. All and all he'll probably just be adequate.

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04-04-2009, 08:17 AM
  #147
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Phillies vBookie events:

4/4 vs Rays

Opening Night 4/5 vs Braves

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04-04-2009, 09:50 AM
  #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The shenanigans are aesthetics, they have absolutely nothing to do with actually playing the sport of baseball. Reyes and Ramirez are probably the two best offensive shortstops (and Ramirez won't be a SS for long it seems), which is one of the most important defensive positions in the sport. The choking (which similar to clutch...doesn't really exist) doesn't really matter outside of a small subset of the season...which I honestly think has more to do with the fact that the guy does so much the entire season and doesn't exactly have the most hardy physique.

Regardless, placing him that high isn't some ridiculous statement by anyone.
Maybe, this is just personal preference, but if I were starting a team to win this year, here are the guys I'd take ahead of him.

- Hanley Ramirez
- Utley (maybe a tad biased, but same average, good clubhouse guy, good speed, more power).
- David Wright
- Johan Santana
- Albert Pujols
- Manny Ramirez
- Tim Lincecum
- Probably Grady Sizemore
- A-Rod
- Evan Longoria
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Hamilton
- Joe Mauer
- Maybe Miguel Cabrera

So like I said, I personally would put him around 15-20. I put a lot of value in guys with a strong, positive clubhouse presence because baseball is a more monotonous season than any other sport, I think part of what helped the Phillies so much the last few years has been a good group of guys in the clubhouse for the most part.

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04-04-2009, 12:14 PM
  #149
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Not a good start Cole...

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04-04-2009, 12:17 PM
  #150
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Nice to see Burrell hit a homer though.

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