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The Southeast division franchises, and their futures

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Old
03-13-2004, 06:27 PM
  #1
ObeySteve
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The Southeast division franchises, and their futures

We all know that in general, the teams from the Southeast division in the NHL have some of the lowest attendance numbers and TV ratings in the league. Excluding Tampa, they are generally rushing to get rid of costly players on their roster and only have a goal of trying to not go completely bankrupt.

That being said...how many of the 5 teams in the Southeast division (Atlanta, Carolina, Florida, Washington, Tampa Bay) do you see being in the same location, if existing at all as a franchise 5-10 years from now?

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03-13-2004, 06:32 PM
  #2
littleHossa
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Atlanta could be there for a while, they had attendance records for an expansion team their first two years, so there are some people who would be willing to watch a hockey team play in Atlanta, and they look like they're going to build a winner in the next 10 years.
One of Florida, Tampa Bay might have to go, but a franchise there is crutial, and they both lasted around 10 years already, why can't they continue.
Washington could probably still stay there, they're an average franchise, maybe like Buffalo and as long as they get 1 or 2 superstars/HOFs every decade, the fans will go see them.
Carolina is difficult, they're not trying to rebuild completly for the reason that their city isn't the best, who knows what the future will bring for them.

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03-13-2004, 11:19 PM
  #3
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All 5 will be here in 5 or 10 or even 25 years.

To think not is just being negative

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03-14-2004, 08:13 AM
  #4
dunwoody_joe
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The only franchise at risk in the division seems to be Carolina.

Tampa and Florida have the population base to support. Atlanta already is doing fine and within 2 years will be a regular in the playoffs. The Caps have history.

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03-14-2004, 09:13 AM
  #5
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Caps are fine and rebuilding quickly.

Canes probably will move.

Tampa hopefully will get better attendence with success

Panthers are fine

Atlanta is doing great and building well.

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03-14-2004, 09:30 AM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ObeySteve
We all know that in general, the teams from the Southeast division in the NHL have some of the lowest attendance numbers and TV ratings in the league.
Where's your numbers to back this up? C'mon, guys, don't act like a bunch of sports writers who base their arguments on things they think they know.

If anything should be taken out of the Bertuzzi incident is this: don't make comments off of something unless you are complete understanding of what you speak of like those half-brain sports writers who usually appear on outlets such as the Boston Globe or ESPN. It's called being knowledgeable of what you speak of, and also researching "facts". Hot damn, there goes a big word.

This site is a great place for hockey fans to discuss a wide range of topics, but some of the topics have no business being discussed in such a casual fashion. That's the real danger of the internet; it gives alot of people an outlet to speak of things they really don't have a clue on.

Now, from personal observation, I can break down what each of you have said and find flaws in them. But, that's not for me to casually discuss Do your research, guys, if you don't want to offend fans of those teams. We don't discuss your situations, and it's probably not as great as you think. *Cough* New Jersey...


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Old
03-14-2004, 10:13 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WHurricane16
Where's your numbers to back this up? C'mon, guys, don't act like a bunch of sports writers who base their arguments on things they think they know.
Facts? Statistics? What do you think this is, a rational discussion and not an attempt to denigrate SE teams?

Anyway, we can speculate all we want, but since no one knows what the new CBA will bring it doesn't mean a whole lot. It's impossible to say what the future holds for a lot of teams right now regardless of where they are located.

I've seen this "local TV ratings" thing discussed more than once, but where do the figures come from? If anyone has an online source, please post it, it would be interesting to look at.

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Old
03-14-2004, 10:26 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WHurricane16
Where's your numbers to back this up? C'mon, guys, don't act like a bunch of sports writers who base their arguments on things they think they know.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/attendance?year=2004

1 Montreal - 20,455
2 Detroit - 20,066
3 Toronto - 19,364
4 Philadelphia - 19,333
5 Vancouver - 18,631
6 Minnesota - 18,523
7 St. Louis - 18,412
8 Dallas - 18,337
9 NY Rangers - 18,075
10 Colorado -2 18,007
11 Los Angeles - 17,823
12 Ottawa - 17,700
13 Tampa Bay - 17,503
14 Columbus - 17,297
15 Edmonton - 16,664
16 Calgary - 16,368
17 Florida - 15,998
18 San Jose - 15,643
19 Buffalo - 15,090
20 Atlanta - 15,021
21 Anaheim - 14,863
22 Boston - 14,833
23 New Jersey - 14,819
24 Washington - 14,739
25 Phoenix - 14,056
26 Chicago - 13,305
27 NY Islanders - 13,216
28 Nashville - 12,780
29 Carolina - 12,041
30 Pittsburgh - 11,816

The numbers don't lie. The Southeast division has the lowest averages of any division in the league.
Tampa's numbers may seem somewhat decent, but they are by far the lowest among the 6 or so big Stanley Cup contenders. Florida's numbers are inflated thanks to a new arena and will drop drastically over the next few years much in the way Phoenix's numbers will.

I'm trying to also find the Forbes numbers for how much each team lost in value over the past 1-2 years, but unfortunately it's in their archives now and can only be accessed with a premium account.

http://www.forbes.com/premium/archiv...equestid=13734

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03-14-2004, 10:34 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sotnos
I've seen this "local TV ratings" thing discussed more than once, but where do the figures come from? If anyone has an online source, please post it, it would be interesting to look at.
Here's one from the St. Pete Times: As Lightning exited, so did the TV ratings

Note: Someone should inform the author that Nashville does have an NHL franchise.

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03-14-2004, 10:36 AM
  #10
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Lol, did you bother to break this down by divisions and add those numbers up? Or find the "averages" you speak of? Also, I don't see these numbers on television ratings.

What still bothers me, though, is that you are basing this off of this season alone. Their are many factors into attendance, ratings, and whatever else I can think of. My original comments in this thread still echo true, no matter what. How do I know you didn't bother to find these numbers until I said something?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weary
Here's one from the St. Pete Times: As Lightning exited, so did the TV ratings

Note: Someone should inform the author that Nashville does have an NHL franchise.
That's last season. Are we discussing different years or what?

Ah, screw it, I wash my hands of this thread.

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Old
03-14-2004, 10:47 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ObeySteve
The numbers don't lie. The Southeast division has the lowest averages of any division in the league.
Tampa's numbers may seem somewhat decent, but they are by far the lowest among the 6 or so big Stanley Cup contenders. Florida's numbers are inflated thanks to a new arena and will drop drastically over the next few years much in the way Phoenix's numbers will.
Attendance is one thing, but what you should really look into is revenue. The NHL is a league driven by gate receipts. The Southeast Division has some of the lowest ticket prices around. A new CBA that's not aimed at keeping 30 teams in the league could be the death-knell for the Southeast.

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Old
03-14-2004, 11:13 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weary
A new CBA that's not aimed at keeping 30 teams in the league could be the death-knell for the Southeast.
No, a new CBA not aimed at taking some of the money out of the players hands (i.e., handicapping these lame ass excuse making owners) and/or a new CBA not aimed at generating more revenue for the league and/or getting a new tv deal could be the death-knell for the NHL.

You guys have to understand basically the Southeast generally reflects the NHL's problem. Slower appeal to newer fans, teams being tight budgeted because of insane salaries of hockey players (no player should be making over $5M in my opinion), and discrimatory/biased opinions on certain regions (no one in hockey seems to agree on anything). Other insane opinions (like the league is watered down....it's not!) need to be thought out or researched before such an opinion can be reached.

I can easily defend my "league is not watered down" statement: there are more players from around the world in the game 10 years ago. Now that's math for you, no matter how much you want to dispute that. If the league is still watered down then your opinion must be the league is filled with players which are not as good as 10 years ago. 'Course, we all know that to be not true, just like the consensus opinion is not.

That's what's wrong with the league, not the Southeast division. The day the NHL loses the Southeast division is the day the NHL folds. I'm willing to bet money on that.

I'm seriously done with this thread. I don't think I can continue to argue over this because it will always come up over & over again. As a hockey fan before the Canes or myself ever got to the Carolinas, I'm just happy to have a hockey team close to me. Whatever some people want to argue over, be my guest. I'm happy, and that is all that matters.


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Old
03-14-2004, 11:54 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleHossa
Carolina is difficult, they're not trying to rebuild completly for the reason that their city isn't the best, who knows what the future will bring for them.

Is that even english?

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03-14-2004, 11:59 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WHurricane16
That's what's wrong with the league, not the Southeast division. The day the NHL loses the Southeast division is the day the NHL folds. I'm willing to bet money on that.
Yes I'm sure the Rangers, Flyers, Maple Leafs, Red Wings, etc. will all fold their tents the day the Southeast Division is eliminated. Not.

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03-14-2004, 12:04 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MR. X
Is that even english?
What kill me is the fact I've seen people more than once knock the Triangle.

There is a reason alot of the veterans don't want to leave the area.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weary
Yes I'm sure the Rangers, Flyers, Maple Leafs, Red Wings, etc. will all fold their tents the day the Southeast Division is eliminated. Not.
I see you get my point,then?

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Old
03-14-2004, 12:52 PM
  #16
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someone had a list of attendance numbers earlier. the canes were averaging 14/15k the first 2 years after the cup run. their present numbers reflect their early drop from contention this year. of course the numbers are gonna go down whenthey lose - are we going to take away chicago? of course not. the markets in question need time to develop a large fan base thats around even when they lose - something the traditional markets take for granted. although very few of THOSE franchises would sell out if they lost for 2 seasons in a row.

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03-14-2004, 01:03 PM
  #17
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It's laughable. It's like having a child, and then wanting to give it away when it can't read at age 3. I mean, are we even going to give these franchises time to grow? Carolina hasn't even been here a decade and people expect it to be a thriving franchise already. Why would the NHL take a team that appears to have growth potential out of the NHL before it has reached i's prime?

Again, the southern teams bias strikes. Will everybody ever get over this and look at Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Dallas in the same context as every other team in the league?

This stuff takes a little time to develop. Hockey was all the rage around here during the Stanley Cup run and that to me showed that North Carolina is capable of having a decent fanbase if they can just put a contender on the ice. Fairweather fans? Perhaps, but what team doesn't have fairweather fans in a young franchise in a new market?

People act like a team can just up and fold anyways. Oh well, we're losing a little money lets pack it in. Nobody takes into account the arena deals, the bankroll of the owner, or the miles of red tape you'd have to get through in order to make a move like that.

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03-14-2004, 01:52 PM
  #18
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Your first instinct was correct, WHurricane. Best to leave this one be.

So many people have before, and will continue to, dog-pile on the SE division. Not so much the Caps because they have a history in the league, they're just trying now to get out from under some bad management decisions. The other four don't have much history and for reasons we don't really need to bring up, a good number of "fans" want to give them the boot. But we know these things take patience (or we should), and not just a couple years. More like a couple decades. I'm fairly certain the NHL knew this going in, although hoping for a quicker dividend. The appeal of several million new fans and their money is what brought them to the south to begin with. The market (in terms of hockey) up north is pretty saturated, the return may be decent but it will never grow. In the south the market is very unsaturated, do it correctly and the benefits will be enormous. But that key word rears its ugly head again, patience. Something too many fans are notorious for not having.

I too was a hockey fan long before a team came (back) to Atlanta. In my 15-20 years of fandom before the Thrashers came here, I can't recall when other hockey fans treated me badly just because I was a fan in a southern state. If anything, they thought that was great and was good for the sport to have fans in other parts of the country. I've been wondering in the last few years where that sentiment went to. Probably best not to delve too deep into that one either...

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03-14-2004, 02:15 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ObeySteve
Tampa's numbers may seem somewhat decent, but they are by far the lowest among the 6 or so big Stanley Cup contenders. Florida's numbers are inflated thanks to a new arena and will drop drastically over the next few years much in the way Phoenix's numbers will.
Actually you'd be wrong in assuming that the arena for the Panthers is that new. They opened it for the 1998 season so its been over 5 yrs that they've been in the building and the numbers have already done the decline thing down to like 14,200 in 2000-2001. But you are right about the numbers being inflated. The team has a lot of 2-for-1 deals this season and some comp situations as well, very similar to what Tampa did 3 yrs ago. The reality of the south FL sports market is simple: fan support comes when winning happens. The Marlins were drawing under 10,000 fans at the beginning of last season and in the World Series they were drawing something like 65,000 fans. When the Panthers were a winning playoff team, they were constantly sold out and hard to get tickets. But I agree with Weary that we should be looking at revenues & losses instead of attendance (though they can sometimes be intertwined). The Panthers have a deal with the county on their building so they do some revenue sharing on the concessions and luxury boxes. Like in Raleigh when I lived in NC, you can see the results when the team is competitive in the attendance figures. The key to the Southeast is being able to keep these young teams in tact for the long term. Florida & Atlanta both have a strong core of kids that will be dominant in the yrs to come if they can get the new CBA right. Washington & Carolina are on a similar path as well. And we already knew how Tampa is doing. I'd say the SE has a much brighter future than any other division in hockey.

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03-14-2004, 04:17 PM
  #20
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WH16, you keep saying you're going to leave the thread, and then you keep coming back Honestly, I think all of these topics have been beaten to death in the contraction threads. AS the new CBA goes, so too go the SE teams. But, as the new CBA goes, so go Edmonton, Calgary, Anaheim, Phoenix, San Jose, Pittsburgh, and just about everybody else. I honestly think that Tampa has a better shot at survival without a new CBA then Edmonton, and I'm an Oilers fan. Its a pointless thing to discuss, because with a good CBA it should be a moot point, and with a bad one there are a lot of teams in the same boat, not just the SE

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03-15-2004, 12:13 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caniacforever
Again, the southern teams bias strikes.
Yeah, what else is new around here, right?

Anyway, I poked around on Forbes and here are the latest #s (from December '03)Hockey Team Values

Also, an interesting article, mostly about Tampa but preaches patience with Southern Teams. Some of you need to read it carefully.
NHL is Asking for Trouble

A few quotes from the above:
Quote:
For these teams to take hold, they need time to develop traditions, which in sports is associated with competing and ultimately winning.

That's why you can't measure the impact and viability of such an aggressive expansion program in a mere six-to-12-year time span. It is all still too new. The Lightning experience in Tampa has proven that organizations have to be given time to mature -- which includes enduring lean years competitively and management missteps.
As for Tampa's attendance:
1 - That building can hold over 21,000 people including SROs, so the % capacity is deceiving. Over 17K would give you a sellout in a LOT of arenas.
2 - Their last 5 home games have been sellouts (sellout=19.5K). The season's not over yet, the average attendance WILL go up.

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03-15-2004, 12:17 AM
  #22
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Very interesting Sotnos, Very interesting.

According to those numbers, Buffalo, Calgary, Nashville, and Edmonton are in more dire straits than Carolina.

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Old
03-15-2004, 01:53 AM
  #23
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I'll worry more about poor attendance in the Southeast after a franchise puts together 3-4 strong seasons and still can't draw flies. Most of the teams in this division were either expected to have a poor season, are coming off a poor season, or both, it's no wonder attendance is poor. With certain exceptions, such as NJ (which may have other factors involved) this is common in many cities. Chicago and Pittsburgh, poor teams, poor attendance. Vancouver in the late 90's had lots of empty seats, once the team turns around they sell out every game. There may be 8-10 franchises around that can sell a ton of tickets regardless of on ice performance, most cities need a winner. Look at Dallas - southern team, succesful on-ice product, no attendance problems.

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03-15-2004, 10:30 AM
  #24
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What I find odd about all of these contraction threads is that no one mentions what happened when Major League Baseball tried to contract two teams. The fans, players, owners, and city officials wouldn’t let it happen. If the NHL decides it has too many teams and want to cut back how will they do it? Will the owners of ___________(insert your least favorite southern team here) just clean out their desks and say, “thanks for the good times see ya’ll at the NASCAR race.”? I doubt it. It would cost the league millions of dollars they don’t have to start with. The league would not only have to buy the teams out, but also most likely have to return portions of the 80 million dollar expansion fee they so happily collected.

I know the real solution though, move all the southern teams to Hartford, Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Strong-hockey-market-where-a-team-has-already-failed-ville. That would fix everything.

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03-15-2004, 12:18 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MR. X
What I find odd about all of these contraction threads is that no one mentions what happened when Major League Baseball tried to contract two teams. The fans, players, owners, and city officials wouldn’t let it happen. If the NHL decides it has too many teams and want to cut back how will they do it? Will the owners of ___________(insert your least favorite southern team here) just clean out their desks and say, “thanks for the good times see ya’ll at the NASCAR race.”? I doubt it. It would cost the league millions of dollars they don’t have to start with. The league would not only have to buy the teams out, but also most likely have to return portions of the 80 million dollar expansion fee they so happily collected.

I know the real solution though, move all the southern teams to Hartford, Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Strong-hockey-market-where-a-team-has-already-failed-ville. That would fix everything.
i agree with you and all the previous posts saying the bias against southern teams is arrogant and off base. i do think however that those markets you mentioned all could support hockey if done properly. i dont think the southern teams should move there - it just wouldnt suprise me if someday a struggling team moves to one of those places. im not saying a southern team - its just they are all good markets. the owners bailed on all of those situations way more than the fans did - seeing gold at the end of the rainbow wherever they moved to (promises of new arenas, revenue streams etc.). minnesota is a perfect example of one of these markets.
i agree completely with your baseball reference mr x. - its an angle no one talks about when they casually throw out the word contraction. peter karmanos had to pay hartford 40 million just to contractually escape the city - what would the league have to pay to make raliegh contract? they built an arena for them - its just a ridiculous concept. bettmans world domination scheme wouldnt allow for it either - there will always be buyers for struggling teams....just maybe from other cities. all i hope for with the new cba is a fair enough world for everyone to give it a shot. after that, only the strong wil survive and we'll see who sticks and who doesnt. at that point - i think all the sunshine team haters might surprised which teams move first.

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