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Canucks sign free agent forward Eric Walsky

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Old
03-23-2009, 06:54 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Maybe I should have said a #5/#6 however it is questionable that he develops the complete package of skills to make him an NHL top 4 defenseman.

Sauve has been called a poor man's Luc Bourdon. That may be an appropriate comparable.

He has some offensive skill, but 30 points in 61 games as an over-ager in the high scoring QMJHL, does not exactly scream Scott Neidermeyer offense. For comparison - Luc Bourdon put up 28 points in only 30 games split between Val D'Or and Moncton as an over-ager and some questioned if Bourdon had much NHL offensive potential.

At 6'3" 220 lbs he is a very good skater and has the physical skills to be an NHLer. But Sauve is also not as good defensively in Junior as Bourdon was. Bourdon (while recovering from his ankle injury) simplified his game and became a shut down defenseman Cape Bretton and even moreso in Manitoba. The next 2 seasons in Manitoba will tell the tale on Sauve. If he learns to be a solid, physical defender he could develop beyond a #5 or #6 defender. If he magically translates his physical skills into offensive production without becoming a defensive liability, he could go even higher.

But for now - high probability is that he tops out as a bottom pairing NHLer.
Neither Bourdon nor Sauve played as over-agers (20) in the CHL.

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03-23-2009, 07:16 PM
  #152
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Here's what I mean (sorry I realize this isn't related to Walsky, but since we're on the topic). I looked the ~top-120 defensemen (theoretically top-4 with thirty teams) in TOI this season and at least 50 GP. Here the ten players that have scored the least and their point totals the year after their draft year.

Kurt Sauer - WHL - 15 points in 48 games.
Robyn Regehr - WHL - 32 points in 54 games.
Mike Komisarek - NCAA - 30 points in 39 games.
Anton Volchenkov - Russian Elite - 19 points in 47 games.
Brendan Witt - WHL - 39 points in 56 games.
Scott Hannan - WHL - 40 points in 47 games.
Greg Zanon - NCAA - 28 points in 39 games.
Henrik Tallinder - SEL - 0 points.
Luke Schenn - NHL - 10 points in 61 games (28 points in 57 games as a 17 year old in his draft year)
Nick Schultz - WHL - 47 points in 59 games.

Now compare that to Ellington and Sauve:

Ellington - 14 points in 48 games in the WHL
Sauve - 30 points in 61 games in the QMJHL

Clearly, with the exception of Sauer (who most people would agree is better served as a bottom pairing guy) and Tallinder (who was playing against grown men as a 19 year old), the lowest scoring top-4 defensemen in the league put up much better numbers in their after their draft year.

There are a couple examples of guys who break the mold and manage to establish themselves with less than stellar numbers in Junior further down the list, but these guys are exceptions. Obviously you can't write off Ellington or (to a lesser extent) Sauve but the fact that they haven't put up offensive numbers to date is a huge red flag on their future potential. Ellington is a bigger question mark because he was also one of the oldest players eligible for his draft year which can have a huge impact on production.

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03-23-2009, 09:18 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
Obviously you can't write off Ellington or (to a lesser extent) Sauve but the fact that they haven't put up offensive numbers to date is a huge red flag on their future potential. Ellington is a bigger question mark because he was also one of the oldest players eligible for his draft year which can have a huge impact on production.
No one drafted these guys to score goals or play the power play.

These players were drafted to fill needs in the bottom 2-3 dmen.

IF they had been drafted specifically based on their offensive abilities, and they werent "putting up offensive numbers to date" would be a "huge red flag on their future potential".

Seeing as Ellington was drafted to be a mean, defensively efficient bottom 3 dman, I'd say he's about right on track.

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03-23-2009, 09:20 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by LostMyGlasses View Post
No one drafted these guys to score goals or play the power play.

These players were drafted to fill needs in the bottom 2-3 dmen.

IF they had been drafted specifically based on their offensive abilities, and they werent "putting up offensive numbers to date" would be a "huge red flag on their future potential".

Seeing as Ellington was drafted to be a mean, defensively efficient bottom 3 dman, I'd say he's about right on track.
Drafting a player with the high end potential of a bottom pairing defensive defenseman with a high second round pick is a terrible draft strategy.

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03-23-2009, 09:26 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
Drafting a player with the high end potential of a bottom pairing defensive defenseman with a high second round pick is a terrible draft strategy.
We'll see if he helps us win cups. Thats all that matters, in the end. A good 3-6 dman can be just as valuable as small perimeter forwards in cup runs.

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03-23-2009, 09:33 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by LostMyGlasses View Post
We'll see if he helps us win cups. Thats all that matters, in the end. A good 3-6 dman can be just as valuable as small perimeter forwards in cup runs.
At this point labelling him a 'good 3-6 defenseman' is a stretch and was my point. At this point it looks like a 5-7 guy is a realistic projection.

I want the Canucks to win the Cup, and they aren't going to win the Cup any time soon spending draft picks on safe, negligible upside players.

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03-23-2009, 10:46 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Canucksrock View Post
Neither Bourdon nor Sauve played as over-agers (20) in the CHL.

Sorry - I meant 19 year olds - the season after they were drafted (the season in which they turned 20 as their birthdays are Feb 16 and Feb 18).

The point being - Bourdon's numbers (at least with Val D'or and Moncton) were much better than Sauve's.

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03-23-2009, 10:51 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by LostMyGlasses View Post
We'll see if he helps us win cups. Thats all that matters, in the end. A good 3-6 dman can be just as valuable as small perimeter forwards in cup runs.
You're missing the point. It's not that you don't need #5 and #6 defensemen. The point is, there is no reason to waste draft 2nd round picks on them as you can always pick up an NHL veteran with a lot more experience for about $1M.

Being good defensively is mostly a function of experience - something you can't really draft.

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03-23-2009, 10:51 PM
  #159
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Sauve just turned 19 a month ago.

But yeah, Bourdon's numbers were much better than Sauve's to this point, but the expectation when he was drafted was that he would turn into a top pairing guy.

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03-24-2009, 01:24 AM
  #160
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Sorry - I meant 19 year olds - the season after they were drafted (the season in which they turned 20 as their birthdays are Feb 16 and Feb 18).

The point being - Bourdon's numbers (at least with Val D'or and Moncton) were much better than Sauve's.
yes but Bourdon went #10 and Sauve went high second round. Also as pointed out Sauve is still 19, and i believe so was Bourdon through his after draft year.

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03-24-2009, 02:18 AM
  #161
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Historically, scoring lots of points as a D in the Q has been considered a NECESSARY but not sufficient condition for success in the NHL.

The Sauve pick by Gillis is clearly a moneyball move - Sauve had not at time of drafting and to date, has not, passed the necessary condition test above but then again, neither had Burrows as a forward...

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03-24-2009, 09:49 AM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Outside99 View Post
Historically, scoring lots of points as a D in the Q has been considered a NECESSARY but not sufficient condition for success in the NHL.

The Sauve pick by Gillis is clearly a moneyball move - Sauve had not at time of drafting and to date, has not, passed the necessary condition test above but then again, neither had Burrows as a forward...
I'm not sure how it's a moneyball move. I'm not saying it's doomed to failure, but wasn't a large principle behind moneyball about drafting players based on statistics rather than traditional scouting techniques? Seems to me Sauve is a choice that goes against the statistical probabilities (if we're hoping for a top 4 d-man).

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03-24-2009, 11:27 AM
  #163
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post

Being good defensively is mostly a function of experience - something you can't really draft.
THis is wrong. I could have the most experience in the world, and I would still be a poor defenceman.

Experience does not dictate defensive awareness or ability. Experience helps with timing, understanding, and helps learn other players moves, styles, and habits.

Couldn't be more wrong. Sorry. Some dmen play for 10 years in the pro's and are still lost defensively, some are amazing defensively (for the most part) right off the bat (Luke Schenn, for the most part).

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03-24-2009, 11:30 AM
  #164
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
You're missing the point. It's not that you don't need #5 and #6 defensemen. The point is, there is no reason to waste draft 2nd round picks on them as you can always pick up an NHL veteran with a lot more experience for about $1M.
.
players you draft and develop >>>>>>>>> 1 million dollar 6th defencemen pickups.


Like I said, we will see who is more effective in the playoffs, guys like Oscar Moller or guys like Ellington. My money's on Ellington.

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03-24-2009, 11:32 AM
  #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outside99 View Post
Historically, scoring lots of points as a D in the Q has been considered a NECESSARY but not sufficient condition for success in the NHL.

The Sauve pick by Gillis is clearly a moneyball move - Sauve had not at time of drafting and to date, has not, passed the necessary condition test above but then again, neither had Burrows as a forward...
It's funny to me how much praise Gillis gets for this draft. Hodgson was a no-brainer of Linden proportions, and if Nonis had used a relatively high 2nd round draft pick on a dman that isn't putting up a ton of points in the Q, we'd hear non-stop about that offensive juggernaut that was taken later that round. but a lot of people love the Sauve pick. it's a little inconsistant, imo.

anways, has Walsky reported to the Moose yet?

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03-24-2009, 11:34 AM
  #166
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It's funny to me how much praise Gillis gets for this draft. Hodgson was a no-brainer of Linden proportions, and if Nonis had used a relatively high 2nd round draft pick on a dman that isn't putting up a ton of points in the Q, we'd hear non-stop about that offensive juggernaut that was taken later that round. but a lot of people love the Sauve pick. it's a little inconsistant, imo.

anways, has Walsky reported to the Moose yet?
I think that a lot of people love the Sauve pick because he was so highly regarded just a season ago, and really fell in his draft year... he was the 1st overall pick in the Q draft, and a season before was projected as a top 10 pick in the NHL draft, but fell big time in his draft year.

so people still see that upside more than anything... same way that, if you remember back to 2002, the Koltsov pick was very highly regarded... a player that could have gone very high in the draft based on talent, but fell for a number of reasons, so people automatically think that the canucks got "lucky" with the pick.

sometimes such picks really work out (such as Parise ... or Hudler)... sometimes they don't (like the aforementioned Koltsov).

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03-24-2009, 12:11 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO View Post
sometimes such picks really work out (such as Parise ... or Hudler)... sometimes they don't (like the aforementioned Koltsov).
Koltsov would have worked if he had a better attitude and wanted to stay in North America. He went for the quick money and family in Russia.

Sauve is big, can skate decently for a big guy, has a decent shot, has the ability to play physical. These kinds of of traits are what GM's look for in dmen, especially after the first round.

Of course, on these boards, unless your second round pick turns out to have Shea Weber type offensive skills, he's considered a bust.

Should have taken the next small European over Sauve,

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03-24-2009, 12:17 PM
  #168
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Koltsov would have worked if he had a better attitude and wanted to stay in North America. He went for the quick money and family in Russia.
can't blame Koltsov at all for leaving NA... saying he didn't have a good attitude is misleading.

He left because his mother was very sick at the time... he did come over to NA and signed a contract with the canucks during a time when a lot of young Russians preferred to stay over there... when he went back, every interview he did his first year there, he said the same thing - his dream was always to play in the NHL and he would return after another season, since he promised his coach he would stick another year... but that all changed after a couple seasons.

and you can't really blame him either... he was making much more money there than he would in NA and was a star player on his team.

Nothing wrong with his attitude at all... he was pulled away for reasons that most of us would have left for too... and he stayed in his home country for reasons that many of us would have as well.

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03-24-2009, 12:22 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO View Post
can't blame Koltsov at all for leaving NA... saying he didn't have a good attitude is misleading.

He left because his mother was very sick at the time... he did come over to NA and signed a contract with the canucks during a time when a lot of young Russians preferred to stay over there... when he went back, every interview he did his first year there, he said the same thing - his dream was always to play in the NHL and he would return after another season, since he promised his coach he would stick another year... but that all changed after a couple seasons.
Anyone that blows off their team mates half way through the season is a bit flaky, imo.
http://www.russianprospects.com/publ...article_id=288

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03-24-2009, 12:26 PM
  #170
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Let me preface this by saying Sauve isn't a 'moneyball' pick. You use those picks on the guys that have already demonstrated what you are looking for and not what you hope they will figure out afterwards.

The difference between Sauve and Ellington was the potential. Sauve had the tools like a big shot and good foot speed to go with a history of being an offensive defenseman and the reason he was ranked so highly by the scouting services was that the potential was there that he'd become something more valuable than his draft position. With Ellington the upside has always been the same - safe, steady, physical bottom pairing defensive defenseman - which is the type of player you could easily acquire for a second round pick or less.

Sauve, for all intents and purposes, just had an equivalent season to what Ellington had at 18 months older than Sauve (contrary to popular belief, the difference between scoring levels in the QMJHL and WHL is really small). At this point he's still got more upside, though I still wouldn't call him a 'smart money' pick.

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03-24-2009, 12:31 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO View Post
can't blame Koltsov at all for leaving NA... saying he didn't have a good attitude is misleading.

He left because his mother was very sick at the time... he did come over to NA and signed a contract with the canucks during a time when a lot of young Russians preferred to stay over there... when he went back, every interview he did his first year there, he said the same thing - his dream was always to play in the NHL and he would return after another season, since he promised his coach he would stick another year... but that all changed after a couple seasons.

and you can't really blame him either... he was making much more money there than he would in NA and was a star player on his team.

Nothing wrong with his attitude at all... he was pulled away for reasons that most of us would have left for too... and he stayed in his home country for reasons that many of us would have as well.
I put a lot of the blame on the Canucks having Fedor Fedorov on the Moose Roster. He was/is the epitome of a poor team player...and being the only other Russian on the team who else is Koltsov going to bond with/look up to?

That's one reason why having Keane on the Moose is such a valuable asset. He's teaching the kids about what it takes to be an NHL player...hard work, perseverance etc....

Basically the opposite of Fed Fed.

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03-24-2009, 12:32 PM
  #172
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A "moneyball" pick would be drafting a player who absolutely tore up the junior ranks in terms of production (though not being carried by his linemates) who has fallen down the ranks for other reasons.

Patrick O'Sullivan would be a great example. He tore up the junior leagues, but for many reasons which I won't get into, he dropped in the draft.

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03-24-2009, 12:34 PM
  #173
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Originally Posted by LostMyGlasses View Post
Anyone that blows off their team mates half way through the season is a bit flaky, imo.
http://www.russianprospects.com/publ...article_id=288

I remember the situation well at the time... it was confirmed by several sources that his mother was very sick (on her death bed basically) at the time, and that was the biggest reason why he left...

don't put any blame on the guy because of that... if he was distracted and acting "flaky" during times like that, you'd be pretty insensitive to not understand that.

he didn't release the information though about his mother until he had already left, as he didn't want to talk about it in the media here, so a lot of speculation came up at the time (as the media usually does).

if I was in his position, I would have done the same thing... and likely would have been just as distracted and disinterested in my time in a foreign country with that hanging over my head!

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03-24-2009, 12:36 PM
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I remember the situation well at the time... it was confirmed by several sources that his mother was very sick (on her death bed basically) at the time, and that was the biggest reason why he left...

don't put any blame on the guy because of that... if he was distracted and acting "flaky" during times like that, you'd be pretty insensitive to not understand that.

he didn't release the information though about his mother until he had already left, as he didn't want to talk about it in the media here, so a lot of speculation came up at the time (as the media usually does).

if I was in his position, I would have done the same thing... and likely would have been just as distracted and disinterested in my time in a foreign country with that hanging over my head!
didnt read the article did you?

edit: If he had simply stated "My mother is sick, I need to return to Russia", I can't imagine ONE member of the Moose organization thinking poorly of the situation. But he skipped flights, quit on the team. That to me, is unacceptable. It pissed off the team, as then Captain, Nolan Baumgartner stated:

"Players knew Koltsov was unhappy, but given the success the Moose have had this year, most were surprised that he pulled the plug.

"We don't want to have somebody that doesn't want to be a part of something good and something where we can go a long way this year and he could of been a big part of it," Moose captain Nolan Baumgartner said. "He was having a good year and it's too bad that he's decided to do this. It might be for the best. It's better off not to have him (here)." "

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03-24-2009, 12:39 PM
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didnt read the article did you?
yea I did... not a new article... I read it back then as well... like I said, when he first left, he didn't say anything about his situation which came out later and created a lot of incorrect information on why he left.

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