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Tampa Bay at the Draft

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:12 AM
  #1
Darth Milbury
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Tampa Bay at the Draft

IMO, Tampa's situation is really quite interesting.

Right now, they are on track to finish #2 overall. With the lottery, they'll have a good chance to get the first pick overall. And, of course, as everybody knows, Tampa has one of the best vet centers in the game and one of the best young centers in the game. This creates an interesting situation becasue Tavares is a natural center.

What Tampa really needs now is young defenders. And, again as everybody knows, the #2 ranked guy on most lists is a dman.

So, taking the great leap to Tampa getting the 1st overall, their choices would seem to be:

1) Draft Tavares, and then make a move later to improve defense.
2) Pass on Taveres, draft Hedman.
3) Make the team at #2 overall (most likely Isles) pay them something good to move up, and then drop down to #2 and take Hedman.
4) Trade the pick for a package of vet defenders.
5) Draft Tavares, and develop him on the wing.


If it were me, I'd go with option 1, but I'd see options 3 and 5 as viable too. The only option I'd totally rule out is 4.

Thoughts?

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Last edited by Darth Milbury: 03-26-2009 at 11:50 AM. Reason: Correct statement about draft odds
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Old
03-26-2009, 11:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
With the lottery, they'll then have a better chance of getting the first pick overall then any other team.
Wouldn't the team in last place have a better chance?

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03-26-2009, 11:37 AM
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Darth Milbury
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pure Rock Fury View Post
Wouldn't the team in last place have a better chance?
Yes, I was being silly there. 1st overall has a 49% chance of winning, and second team has (I believe) about a 43% chance.

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03-26-2009, 11:38 AM
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I think I know what Darth Milbury means: there is a track record of the team with the 2nd worst record winning the lottery. And that could happen again this year, but on a statistical level it should be the Isles drafting 1st.

Whatever else happens, I'm almost certain that Tampa will take Hedman. Then again, if they do wind up with the 1st overall pick somehow maybe they'll take Tavares, and then trade Lecavalier.

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
IMO, Tampa's situation is really quite interesting.

Right now, they are on track to finish #2 overall. With the lottery, they'll then have a better chance of getting the first pick overall then any other team. And, of course, as everybody knows, Tampa has one of the best vet centers in the game and one of the best young centers in the game. What they really need now is young defenders. So, taking the great leap to Tampa getting the 1st overall, their choices would seem to be:

1) Draft Tavares, and then make a move later to improve defense.
2) Pass on Taveres, draft Hedman.
3) Make the team at #2 overall (most likely Isles) pay them something good to move up, and then drop down to #2 and take Hedman.
4) Trade the pick for a package of vet defenders.


If it were me, I'd go with option 1, but I'd see option 3 as viable too. The only option I'd totally rule out is 4.

Thoughts?

It's an interesting scenario. Here are a few thoughts in response.

They could draft Tavares with trading Lecavelier in mind. While it's not inevitable, there is, at the very least, a chance he is moved in the offseason. Tavares would fill in his spot and soften the blow of losing him while also perhaps addressing other needs (like defense) through such a trade.

Passing on Tavares for Hedman seems plausible as well. If they do in fact keep Vinny, which is perhaps likely, then they will be adding to a strength while potentially avoiding a weakness. It's no secret that they need some young defensemen. Whether they try to address that with the first pick or not is to be seen.

It would make little sense for the #2 team to trade up. If Tampa wants to move down to number 2 they might as well announce to every team in the NHL, "we don't want Tavares." Why would, say, the Islanders, trade up to #1 to get Tavares if they can probably grab him with #2? The only reason this would make sense is if they are afraid of another team moving up to grab the pick, but even then, are the Islanders sold that much more on Tavares then they are Hedman? While I don't think it's a secret that the Islanders want Tavares, I do think they would be content with Hedman as well. Perhaps another team trades up for the pick. That would be realistic. I don't see Tampa trading out of the top 2, though.

And there would be absolutely no reason to trade the pick for some "veteran defensemen." They are not even a Chris Pronger away from contending. I don't see this as making any sense at all. That said, Tampa Bay management has done everything thought to be illogical this season, so they are certainly capable of pulling off something so stupid.

The Islanders are in a similar situation. Strictly from the standpoint of their roster and prospect makeup they definitely need a defenseman much more than a forward. That said, they have been pimping Tavares virtually every game without much attention to Hedman, and not taking Tavares would likely be a letdown to the fans. The Islanders also need a "face" of their franchise, much like Crosby for the Penguins, if they want to stay on Long Island. It's a lot easier to market guy who racks up the points than it is a defenseman. Aside from the exceptions like Lidstrom, most teams have a scoring forward as "the guy."

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03-26-2009, 11:44 AM
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Never happened

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny canuckistan View Post
I think I know what Darth Milbury means: there is a track record of the team with the 2nd worst record winning the lottery. And that could happen again this year, but on a statistical level it should be the Isles drafting 1st.

Whatever else happens, I'm almost certain that Tampa will take Hedman. Then again, if they do wind up with the 1st overall pick somehow maybe they'll take Tavares, and then trade Lecavalier.

2 points here.

#2 seed has a 18.8% chance of winning the draft lottery
#1 seed has a 48% chance of retaining the 1st pick in the draft (they have 25% themselves, plus the chances of the #6 - #14 seed winning the draft lottery, which pushes their percentages to 48%, since you can only move up 4 draft slots)

The second point, is that in the 13 years of the draft lottery (from 1995 to 2008, and taking out 2005), the #2 seed has not won the draft lottery yet. #3 seed has won it like 3 times already.

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Yes, I was being silly there. 1st overall has a 49% chance of winning, and second team has (I believe) about a 43% chance.
Sounds like the tankers have planted their seed. Its actually 30th overall, the worst of the worst that has the highest chance at picking 1st then 29th, 28th etc.

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:47 AM
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When is the draft lottery? Right after the end of the regular season or after the playoffs can't remember?

None the less it's going to be a very interesting draft in Montreal this summer

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Yes, I was being silly there. 1st overall has a 49% chance of winning, and second team has (I believe) about a 43% chance.
It's less than 43 if I remember correct. It drops significantly, almost to something like 18%

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03-26-2009, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leaflover View Post
Sounds like the tankers have planted their seed. Its actually 30th overall, the worst of the worst that has the highest chance at picking 1st then 29th, 28th etc.

Guys - I'd appreciate it if you would actually read the thread before posting. I already acknowledge that error above and corrected myself.

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
It's less than 43 if I remember correct. It drops significantly, almost to something like 18%

Odds of first team winning lottery are 25%. Odds of second team are 18%. But, for the first team, you include the odds of any team drafting below 4 winning the lottery. So, you are correct.

How about we move beyond this discussion of lottery odds and address the orginal point. If Tampa wins the lottery, what do they do?

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Old
03-26-2009, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Guys - I'd appreciate it if you would actually read the thread before posting. I already acknowledge that error above and corrected myself.
Lighten up.

If they win the lottery they take Tavares. They have to sell tickets too.

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Old
03-26-2009, 12:00 PM
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Lighten up.

If they win the lottery they take Tavares. They have to sell tickets too.
Lighten up yourself, junior. I simply asked for everybody to get back up on topic.

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03-26-2009, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
If Tampa wins the lottery, what do they do?
Quietly make a trade with the team selecting #2 to swap spots? It's similar to what Florida did when they won the lottery in 2003. This might be harder to pull off since Tampa presumably wouldn't want to drop any further than #2.

In 1999, Atlanta gave Tampa a future conditional 3rd rounder to move up from #2 to #1 for the privilege of drafting Patrik Stefan #1. Much like the '03 (and for that matter, '02) swaps, they don't necessarily have to be blockbusters.

If Tampa won the lottery and offered to swap picks with the Islanders if they got Boston's 2nd rounder, would you take that offer?

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03-26-2009, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Bruinsfan_37 View Post
When is the draft lottery? Right after the end of the regular season or after the playoffs can't remember?

None the less it's going to be a very interesting draft in Montreal this summer
Last year it was on April 7th 2008.

Edit: http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=draft+lottery+2009+nhl

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03-26-2009, 12:28 PM
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In 1999, Atlanta gave Tampa a future conditional 3rd rounder to move up from #2 to #1 for the privilege of drafting Patrik Stefan #1.
Epic fail?

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Old
03-26-2009, 12:30 PM
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With the monumental nose dive that Colorado is in the midst of, I would be surprised if Tampa finishes in that 29th spot. Plus, Tampa has a game at hand on Colorado and they are tied right now.

If Tampa does miss out on Hedman completely (3rd overall), I could see one of three scenarios:

1. Tampa trades down into the 7-10 spot to grab either Cowen or Kulikov.

2. Tampa out and out trades the pick for an all-star defender in his prime.

3. Tampa goes a bit off the board and picks Paajarvi due to his ability to play on the wing.

All three equally as likely in my opinion.

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03-26-2009, 12:39 PM
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It's an interesting scenario. Here are a few thoughts in response.

They could draft Tavares with trading Lecavelier in mind. While it's not inevitable, there is, at the very least, a chance he is moved in the offseason. Tavares would fill in his spot and soften the blow of losing him while also perhaps addressing other needs (like defense) through such a trade.

Passing on Tavares for Hedman seems plausible as well. If they do in fact keep Vinny, which is perhaps likely, then they will be adding to a strength while potentially avoiding a weakness. It's no secret that they need some young defensemen. Whether they try to address that with the first pick or not is to be seen.

It would make little sense for the #2 team to trade up. If Tampa wants to move down to number 2 they might as well announce to every team in the NHL, "we don't want Tavares." Why would, say, the Islanders, trade up to #1 to get Tavares if they can probably grab him with #2? The only reason this would make sense is if they are afraid of another team moving up to grab the pick, but even then, are the Islanders sold that much more on Tavares then they are Hedman? While I don't think it's a secret that the Islanders want Tavares, I do think they would be content with Hedman as well. Perhaps another team trades up for the pick. That would be realistic. I don't see Tampa trading out of the top 2, though.

And there would be absolutely no reason to trade the pick for some "veteran defensemen." They are not even a Chris Pronger away from contending. I don't see this as making any sense at all. That said, Tampa Bay management has done everything thought to be illogical this season, so they are certainly capable of pulling off something so stupid.

The Islanders are in a similar situation. Strictly from the standpoint of their roster and prospect makeup they definitely need a defenseman much more than a forward. That said, they have been pimping Tavares virtually every game without much attention to Hedman, and not taking Tavares would likely be a letdown to the fans. The Islanders also need a "face" of their franchise, much like Crosby for the Penguins, if they want to stay on Long Island. It's a lot easier to market guy who racks up the points than it is a defenseman. Aside from the exceptions like Lidstrom, most teams have a scoring forward as "the guy."
If Lecavalier is moved the team is in full rebuild (no they arent now), so I doubt that happens as 2 bad years for the team/sales is bad enough.

The thing for the team in the second spot is that Tampa will pick Tavares if they arent bribed out of the top spot, i dont think they would mind drafting Tavares or Hedman. So the Isles (or whoever) would need something to get the top pick.

Also you might want to rethink the young defenseman thing, have you seen the D, all we have is young/inexperienced. Ranger, Meszaros, Smaby, Lashoff, Lundin all expected to be playing in the NHL next year all 25 and under. Murphy is 31ish but doesnt have all that many games played. So what we need is a vet dman, not a young dman, especially when we have Mihalik, Wishart and Quick on the way as well (although I wouldnt say no to Hedman/Kulikov by any means).

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03-26-2009, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke View Post
3. Tampa goes a bit off the board and picks Paajarvi due to his ability to play on the wing.
I really don't see this as "off the board", he is rated top 4 in most rankings

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03-26-2009, 01:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Yes, I was being silly there. 1st overall has a 49% chance of winning, and second team has (I believe) about a 43% chance.
18.8%

tampa's best situation is to stay at 2nd and draft hedman. It saves them the PR mess if tavares turns out better. They have a 42% shot at 2nd if they are 29th overall, and a 39% shot at 3rd (duchene). If tampa is 3rd, i see them considering moving down for cowen or picking MPS.

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03-26-2009, 01:45 PM
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The Avs are finishing 2nd overall right now.

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Old
03-26-2009, 02:10 PM
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If Lecavalier is moved the team is in full rebuild (no they arent now), so I doubt that happens as 2 bad years for the team/sales is bad enough.

The thing for the team in the second spot is that Tampa will pick Tavares if they arent bribed out of the top spot, i dont think they would mind drafting Tavares or Hedman. So the Isles (or whoever) would need something to get the top pick.

Also you might want to rethink the young defenseman thing, have you seen the D, all we have is young/inexperienced. Ranger, Meszaros, Smaby, Lashoff, Lundin all expected to be playing in the NHL next year all 25 and under. Murphy is 31ish but doesnt have all that many games played. So what we need is a vet dman, not a young dman, especially when we have Mihalik, Wishart and Quick on the way as well (although I wouldnt say no to Hedman/Kulikov by any means).
I acknowledge that it's not likely that Lecavalier is moved. I never claimed that as even close to likely. Point is that it's certainly possible given the rumors coming out. It wouldn't be the most shocking news if he was traded. I was presenting what they would do if they traded Vinny; not claiming that it was realistic.

So you're saying that Tampa Bay will pick Tavares even if they want Hedman more simply to annoy the other team? They might try to bluff it but fact is that the Lightning would not want to trade down to the 2nd overall pick if they wanted Tavares. If they are trading down to the 2nd pick then they want Hedman.

And you're telling me that you would take "veteran defensemen" over Hedman? What defenseman would you trade the 1st overall pick for that could be had? And besides, just the same the Lightning have Lecavalier and Stamkos at center. I'd definitely say that the Lightning are much more in need of a top defenseman than a top center.

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03-26-2009, 03:08 PM
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They'll choose Hedman if they have 2nd overall or they're seriously consider trading down to pick up Cowen and extra picks or defencemen.

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03-26-2009, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Lighten up yourself, junior. I simply asked for everybody to get back up on topic.
How by taking people off topic.

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Old
03-26-2009, 03:54 PM
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Wasn't there are rule like if you drafted 1st overall one season, you can't get that 1st pick the next? If there isn't, there should be.

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