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Mathias Brunet article on Timmins

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Old
04-05-2009, 11:48 PM
  #451
Peter Puck
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Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
It's all fine and dandy in theory, but define "best player available".

If they're very close in talent and play the same position (forward, defense or goaltending), the intangibles are what will make one team have one player over another ahead while another team will have them in reverse order on their list. One of the intangibles in a market like Montreal is the language.

I know, I know, blasphemy for bringing this up... but it's a hard cold reality!

EDIT: And what language does Guillaume speak? Bouillon was born in New York. What language does he speak? It's not the place of birth as much as the ability for fans and sponsors to relate.
Well if we want to maximize the market we should get fewer Quebec players. After all, the majority of fans in Quebec are Habs fans and most will remain so regardless of who is on the team. Sure a few will complain if we have no Quebecers but the vast majority would remain Habs fans. Revenues from Quebec might even fall a little but the rest of the world can more than make up for that.

We need to capture more supporters from the rest of the world, where there are many potential fans and lukewarm fans of other teams ripe for the conversion. Sign more players from Saskatchewan and the Maritimes. That way we will get more fans from those regions. The majority of hockey fans in Belarus are probably Habs fans now. Let's try to get a player from Africa or South America. They need to be decent players but if we can find just one we are on our way.

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04-06-2009, 07:16 AM
  #452
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Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
There is no way to know Berglund will be better than Giroux. Also Giroux is a franco and whatever you guys say, it's a big plus.

Same with Max Pac vs Perron. Max Pax was always progected to be a third liner(with questionable grit) while Perron was a sure-fire hit as far as talent. Plus as mentioned, his origin is also important for this market.


Please. Come back when you've done your homework.

1) They can project anything they want. If Timmins thinks Max Pacioretty is going to be a 1st line power forward, I'll take that over the ISS guys or the Central scouting people who think he's a third liner.

2) Perron did have great skill, but a questionnable work ethic and a poor attitude. I don't think a sure-thing about talent and a great all-around prospect would fall to the late 20's.

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04-06-2009, 08:23 AM
  #453
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Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
As for the name calling, I'm not going there... it's a weapon for the weak.
But you just called him weak no?

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04-06-2009, 08:26 AM
  #454
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
guess what it tells you for this year, forget about Kassian, Holland, Werek and draft CARON! because he actually has the 10 points over 1 point per game mark under Jodoin's system (from Tanguay to Perron have made it to the NHL with success)
Don't get your hopes high. For a 1st rounder, I don't believe that Caron is Timmins type of player. I was hot and cold with Caron all year, so he's not even in my top 5. He might have the potential for us to regret it, so was Bernier and in the end, Bernier ain't doing it.

Honestly, I have the other guys you named ahead of him despite me being biased towads the Q. But at one point, how about we look to trade our 1st pick in order to have a lower 1st pick and a 2nd or another 3rd? There might be some interesting BPA from the Q available.

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04-06-2009, 08:27 AM
  #455
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Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
That's why you will never get that it. For french Quebecers the Habs are a source of pride and identification. More than the Maple-Leaf flag, more than the troops or whatever other nationalist emblems.

Why is your opinion is not respected? Because i'll repeat a phrase in a Chris Rock routine:"there comes a time when people that have the most ***** can say the least ***** and those that have the least ***** can say the most *****". Anglos have a North American sea of riches to play with. It's their kingdom they have inneritated. Can't those lowly 6 million frenchies at least have the Habs?
are you for real? or is this post sarcasm.

Bottom line....This is an NHL team that has a mandate to win. Not a bush league where you draft all your buddies.

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04-06-2009, 08:30 AM
  #456
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Originally Posted by Toro View Post
But you just called him weak no?
Way to call themI say good call

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04-06-2009, 08:56 AM
  #457
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Originally Posted by Toro View Post
are you for real? or is this post sarcasm.

Bottom line....This is an NHL team that has a mandate to win. Not a bush league where you draft all your buddies.
These people don't realize that just because they say that it's their team doesn't mean it is their team. Really, where does their "ownership" of the Canadiens come from? Just reiterating one view in history of how the Habs could be interpreted as a pride of French Canadiens does not solely make them the pride of French Canadiens to an extent where nationality should even be factor in considering players.

If anything, it's Gillett's team and he's given over the reins to Gainey, a guy whose primary goal is winning.

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04-06-2009, 10:25 AM
  #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
since 2000, that is the year I used for my list the Q has a success rate in the first 2 rounds of 42% (players playing in the NHL)

vs 35% for the WHL
vs 28% for USHL and high schools and there's no correlation with production except for Zajac who stands out with 2 points per game (no comparison with other players in his season, only with other players drafted from the BCHL)
Does that take into account the average number of years a high school player takes to get into the league? Probably not thus your last few years will give a high success rate for the Q.

Also what numbers are we talking about? Are there 20 guys from the Q selected in the first 2 rounds per year? Less? Sampling on such a small number leads to inconclusive results.

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04-06-2009, 12:01 PM
  #459
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Originally Posted by MonacoBlue View Post
These people don't realize that just because they say that it's their team doesn't mean it is their team. Really, where does their "ownership" of the Canadiens come from? Just reiterating one view in history of how the Habs could be interpreted as a pride of French Canadiens does not solely make them the pride of French Canadiens to an extent where nationality should even be factor in considering players.

If anything, it's Gillett's team and he's given over the reins to Gainey, a guy whose primary goal is winning.
so, what do you make of production after all?

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04-06-2009, 12:04 PM
  #460
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
what do you mean by average number of years for high school players?

20 guys who have made it to the NHL out of 48 I believe; and yes they were selected in the first 2 rounds. I'm not sure why you say it's too small of a sample because it gives results similar to those in the study presented earlier
I thought high school players took longer to make it to the NHL than players from the Q due to the contract obligations and such. Thus if Q players need to make it to the NHL by their 3rd year while high school players need to make it by their 5th year, then you'll see more of the Q players drafted make the NHL for those selected in the last few years (say 2 or 3).

Also what is this study presented earlier? I must have missed it as I haven't been following this thread religiously.

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04-06-2009, 12:14 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by jnthomas View Post
I thought high school players took longer to make it to the NHL than players from the Q due to the contract obligations and such. Thus if Q players need to make it to the NHL by their 3rd year while high school players need to make it by their 5th year, then you'll see more of the Q players drafted make the NHL for those selected in the last few years (say 2 or 3).

Also what is this study presented earlier? I must have missed it as I haven't been following this thread religiously.
it says that there is discrimination against players from the Q and to a lesser extent, europeans, in that stereotypes that are thought to be well known are false. Players from the Q and europe generally perform better than other leagues and succeed in higher proportion.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...g=content;col1

I edited my earlier post to say that it takes them the same amount of time to graduate to the NHL

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04-06-2009, 01:17 PM
  #462
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
since 2000, that is the year I used for my list the Q has a success rate in the first 2 rounds of 42% (players playing in the NHL)

vs 35% for the WHL
vs 28% for USHL and high schools and there's no correlation with production except for Zajac who stands out with 2 points per game (no comparison with other players in his season, only with other players drafted from the BCHL)
So in the next draft, you would take Jordan Caron before Brayden Schenn because he has more chance of reaching the NHL? When you draft, you go for the player with the more upside...it doesn't mean anything that 42% of the Q players since 2000 have reached the NHL. I mean, there is so many good players who played in the Q but were born outside the province of Quebec. It change your statistics quite a bit...

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04-06-2009, 01:28 PM
  #463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
it says that there is discrimination against players from the Q and to a lesser extent, europeans, in that stereotypes that are thought to be well known are false. Players from the Q and europe generally perform better than other leagues and succeed in higher proportion.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...g=content;col1

I edited my earlier post to say that it takes them the same amount of time to graduate to the NHL
I wonder, I had a sociology professor named Walsh a few years ago. I used to get in heated arguments with him after class because I found dreadfully annoying that he would ignore facts and data that did not strengthen his argument. Where is this Walsh from?

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04-06-2009, 01:33 PM
  #464
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Originally Posted by jnthomas View Post
I wonder, I had a sociology professor named Walsh a few years ago. I used to get in heated arguments with him after class because I found dreadfully annoying that he would ignore facts and data that did not strengthen his argument. Where is this Walsh from?
I don't know, send an email to Marc Lavoie and he'll tell you

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04-06-2009, 01:34 PM
  #465
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
I don't know, send an email to Marc Lavoie and he'll tell you
I don't care that much lol

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04-06-2009, 01:39 PM
  #466
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
Alright...I would take Kassian and Holland way before Caron then...
good for you, you don't seem to learn much from history; I just showed you lists of huge busts who didn't do great before getting drafted but that's not enough for you I guess

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04-06-2009, 01:39 PM
  #467
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Alright...I would take Kassian and Holland way before Caron then...

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04-06-2009, 01:42 PM
  #468
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
good for you, you don't seem to learn much from history; I just showed you lists of huge busts who didn't do great before getting drafted but that's not enough for you I guess
What has Caron done more than Kassian?

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04-06-2009, 01:50 PM
  #469
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
good for you, you don't seem to learn much from history; I just showed you lists of huge busts who didn't do great before getting drafted but that's not enough for you I guess
This is where I don't agree with you. History tells you some things but doesn't portray the whole picture. I prefer to take it year by year, player by player. You know where I stand as far as having more Q guys on board, but you also where I stand as far as getting more talented centermen on board and Caron does not fulfill that need. Or if we really want him, we could probably try to move down in the 1st round and try to get a 2nd in the process. I have the feeling that Caron will not be a 1st rounder.

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04-06-2009, 01:50 PM
  #470
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Originally Posted by Garo View Post
What has Caron done more than Kassian?
produce well in a tight system with a lot of injuries to Rimouski this year

guys who produce well under Jodoin's system seem to do well in the NHL from Perron to Tanguay

add to that that he's a centerman, good stature; and as the study points out, is likely to be ranked lower than if his name were Jordan Staal for instance

nothing against Kassian, he might be good, but history tells me that the large part of guys with this type of production in the OHL don't make it to the next level and they're generally rated higher for X stereotype about gritty players from the O

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04-06-2009, 01:52 PM
  #471
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
add to that that he's a centerman, good stature; and as the study points out, is likely to be ranked lower than if his name were Jordan Staal for instance
Isn't he a RW now? And knowing how he plays, wouldn't he be better suited at that position in higher levels as well?

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04-06-2009, 01:53 PM
  #472
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
nothing against Kassian, he might be good, but history tells me that the large part of guys with this type of production in the OHL don't make it to the next level and they're generally rated higher for X stereotype about gritty players from the O
By going with history you would have passed on Horton and Carter.

Caron's production isn't much better than Kassian, so going by that it's a wash. I haven't seen them play so I won't comment on their game. Have you?

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04-06-2009, 01:54 PM
  #473
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This is where I don't agree with you. History tells you some things but doesn't portray the whole picture. I prefer to take it year by year, player by player. You know where I stand as far as having more Q guys on board, but you also where I stand as far as getting more talented centermen on board and Caron does not fulfill that need. Or if we really want him, we could probably try to move down in the 1st round and try to get a 2nd in the process. I have the feeling that Caron will not be a 1st rounder.
I don't know, I remember him playing at C and being ranked at C, but it doesn't matter much to me.

you can look at Gleannie if you prefer

I'll personally take my shot with the stats that history shows, you can go down to 1990 and it still holds on very good. The years it doesn't work are years when there's no talent like 99 I believe with Kelman and all. You'll get a lot more gems like Morrow who go under the radar with good production and have a lot of overrated guys like Marcel Hossa who don't put enough points on the board yet are seen as skilled forwards.

What's wrong with Caron btw?

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By going with history you would have passed on Horton and Carter.

Caron's production isn't much better than Kassian, so going by that it's a wash. I haven't seen them play so I won't comment on their game. Have you?
again, you guys don't seem to read what I wrote earlier. Horton and Carter passed the test of the +10 point in the OHL, from that point on you can select you like from the bunch. Carter and Richards both passed the test easily, so if the Canadiens cared a little about production in the CHL they would stop passing on those guys and stop drafting underachievers in the CHL and projects from elsewhere.

Caron has the +10 point this year in a defensive system, no it's not much, but it makes all the difference as it seems.

You don't even have to see the guys play, that's probably the worst thing to do in fact for most people who get overly excited without much, but yes I've seen Caron and he played good against the Remparts and I believe I saw Kassian play on sportsnet once or twice


Last edited by Habs10Habs: 04-07-2009 at 11:09 AM.
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04-06-2009, 02:09 PM
  #474
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
What's wrong with Caron btw?
Well, I've been up and down with the kid. He was way up my list last year and at the beginning of the year, then started to be injured quite a few times, and just never ceased to underwhelmed me. Again, that seems harsh but not at the point of being a ND for me. Just enough though to be behind guys like Holland, Werek, Kassian and some others.

I do reserve the right to catch a few other games in this series and my opinion is not done yet. So I might and will change my mind. I just happen to have more question marks about him than some other guys. Though I've seen him way more than the other guys though. It may affect positively or negatively any way I'm seeing him.

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04-06-2009, 02:10 PM
  #475
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again, you guys don't seem to read what I wrote earlier. Horton and Carter passed the test of the +10 point in the OHL, from that point on you can select you like from the bunch.
Err... It seems more of a convenience, but okay. Of course players who produced more have a better chance, but you're still talking about individuals. Bergeron and Getzlaf (You named him, but I don't see how it tells me to get Richards) wouldn't passed that test, and you would have banged your head on a wall if you evaluated them that way.

I do think players with good size tends to be overrated, like Schroeder this year seems to fall for no reason. Still, it's not as bad as it was before 2003.

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