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Old
04-06-2009, 02:17 PM
  #476
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Originally Posted by Garo View Post
Err... It seems more of a convenience, but okay. Of course players who produced more have a better chance, but you're still talking about individuals. Bergeron and Getzlaf (You named him, but I don't see how it tells me to get Richards) wouldn't passed that test, and you would have banged your head on a wall if you evaluated them that way.

I do think players with good size tends to be overrated, like Schroeder this year seems to fall for no reason. Still, it's not as bad as it was before 2003.
Richards passed the test easily in the OHL; look at the list man! hehe

add to that the WHL guys, Q and NCAA players and you have the major part of "hits" in the NHL for the last 18 years


Last edited by Mathletic: 04-06-2009 at 02:23 PM.
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04-06-2009, 02:23 PM
  #477
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
Richards passed the test easily in the OHL; look at the list man! hehe
I know that, I just think Getzlaf is a better player. That's another subject though.

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04-06-2009, 02:23 PM
  #478
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
yeah but Brayden Scheen passes the test of the +10 rule easily and is one of the best prospects anyway, you'd have to compare Caron to Holland, Carter, Ferraro, Werek and Kassian whom are mid-low to low first rounders and don't pass the test.

Gleannie is another guy who seems to go under the radar since his production is much better than others
How do you factor in improvement on a year per year basis and how many years the players have played in the league?

I know Getzlaf is a player who showed significant statistical improvement from his first to second year (63-9-9-18 to 70-29-39-68), while Dan Paille did not (64-22-31-53 to 62-27-30-57), but they're both lumped in the same category.

Now Caron has shown steady statistical growth each year, but he only reached this 10 point over mark in his third year in the league. The rest of the players you mentioned are all second year players (besides for Werek, a rookie) and all showed significant statistical improvement from their first to second years (and Werek showed statistical improvement throughout his one year):

Holland has shown considerable statistical growth between his first and second years: 62-8-15-23 to 68-28-39-67.

Carter Ashton has also shown considerable statistical growth: 40-5-4-9 to 70-30-20-50.

Ferraro, too, has shown considerable statistical growth: 54-13-11-24 to 68-37-18-55 (where the next leading scorer had 42 points, just five more than Ferraro had goals).

Werek was a rookie and showed considerable progression throughout the year, potting 28 goals in his last 46 games, after scoring just 4 in his first 20 games in the league.

Kassian also showed considerable statistical growth: 58-9-12-21 to 61-24-39-63.

Are they more Getzlaf than Paille or is Getzlaf just an outlier?

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04-06-2009, 02:34 PM
  #479
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Originally Posted by Genghis Keon View Post
How do you factor in improvement on a year per year basis and how many years the players have played in the league?

I know Getzlaf is a player who showed significant statistical improvement from his first to second year (63-9-9-18 to 70-29-39-68), while Dan Paille did not (64-22-31-53 to 62-27-30-57), but they're both lumped in the same category.

Now Caron has shown steady statistical growth each year, but he only reached this 10 point over mark in his third year in the league. The rest of the players you mentioned are all second year players (besides for Werek, a rookie) and all showed significant statistical improvement from their first to second years (and Werek showed statistical improvement throughout his one year):

Holland has shown considerable statistical growth between his first and second years: 62-8-15-23 to 68-28-39-67.

Carter Ashton has also shown considerable statistical growth: 40-5-4-9 to 70-30-20-50.

Ferraro, too, has shown considerable statistical growth: 54-13-11-24 to 68-37-18-55 (where the next leading scorer had 42 points, just five more than Ferraro had goals).

Werek was a rookie and showed considerable progression throughout the year, potting 28 goals in his last 46 games, after scoring just 4 in his first 20 games in the league.

Kassian also showed considerable statistical growth: 58-9-12-21 to 61-24-39-63.

Are they more Getzlaf than Paille or is Getzlaf just an outlier?
When are they drafted? This year, so screw the projection for me and the past, for me it's about where they are now, this year's production is already good enough for me. From those guys who pass the test then do all you like, projection and all that black magic thing that scouts know about.

edit: ok I actually took time to read your post, and I'll check if production increase had anything to do in the past, but the lists I made up were for a single year's production and seems to correlate just fine. I doubt it will change anything and it's been going this way for 20 years so again I doubt this year is any different.

I know the formula isn't perfect by any means, but it looks more accurate than common wisdom and you might have to do with losing Getzlaf but in the long run you'll gain Parises and Morrows of this world more often than not.

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04-06-2009, 02:39 PM
  #480
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
Richards passed the test easily in the OHL; look at the list man! hehe

add to that the WHL guys, Q and NCAA players and you have the major part of "hits" in the NHL for the last 18 years
But your system isn't working...I mean, Corey Locke had 151 points in his draft year so EASILY had more than a point per game. He has proven more than about everyone in his draft year based on point production and yet, he was a fourth round pick. If YOU were the GM, how could you not draft him in the first round? I'm waiting for your answer M. ridiculousstats.

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04-06-2009, 02:39 PM
  #481
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
But your system isn't working...I mean, Corey Locke had 151 points in his draft year so EASILY had more than a point per game. He has proven more than about everyone in his draft year based on point production and yet, he was a fourth round pick. If YOU were the GM, how could you not draft him in the first round? I'm waiting for your answer M. ridiculousstats.
you don't seem to get it at all man

Locke is a 3rd/4th round guy, not a 1st round prospect, locke was a great pick in the 3rd, just like Dawes was a great pick in the 5th and Gionta in the 5th. From the 3rd round down it's crapshoot as we all know, but those guys who have amazing production are worth a shot.

you really don't have much work to do, prospects are all ranked from top 10 to mid to late first to 2nd, 3rd and so on, from that list on you can choose the guys with actual production and select your guys from that list. Some years you might have 5 guys to choose from, others none.

if you draft in mid first it doesn't take much of a leap of imagination to reach for a late 1st round guy; I'm not talking reaching into the 7th round here


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04-06-2009, 02:56 PM
  #482
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
you don't seem to get it at all man

Locke is a 3rd/4th round guy, not a 1st round prospect, locke was a great pick in the 3rd, just like Dawes was a great pick in the 5th and Gionta in the 5th. From the 3rd round down it's crapshoot as we all know, but those guys who have amazing production are worth a shot.

you really don't have much work to do, prospects are all ranked from top 10 to mid to late first to 2nd, 3rd and so on, from that list on you can choose the guys with actual production and select your guys from that list. Some years you might have 5 guys to choose from, others none.

if you draft in mid first it doesn't take much of a leap of imagination to reach for a late 1st round guy; I'm not talking reaching into the 7th round here
And what do you do with players who fall on draft day. I mean, Rob Schremp was supposed to go top 15 and had over 100 points in his draft year and he still isn't in the NHL. The point is, you still have to scout players...

In 2002, Upshall had more than a point per game, but was selected before Lupul. We can safely say that it was a mistake. Funny because they both had more than a point per game...so yeah, you have to scout players...and you have to take risk.

And with your system, how do you draft Ds or goaltenders?


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04-06-2009, 03:55 PM
  #483
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
And what do you do with players who fall on draft day. I mean, Rob Schremp was supposed to go top 15 and had over 100 points in his draft year and he still isn't in the NHL. The point is, you still have to scout players...

In 2002, Upshall had more than a point per game, but was selected before Lupul. We can safely say that it was a mistake. Funny because they both had more than a point per game...so yeah, you have to scout players...and you have to take risk.

And with your system, how do you draft Ds or goaltenders?
are you kidding me, Schremp barely had 70 points in his draft year. Schremp is the typical not much production yet is sold as a scoring machine. In the end if you truly want to include exceptions like Locke, include them in the 1st round if you want to. Lock isn't going to be more of a bust than Anthony Stewart who enters the list of no production.

Again, I'll repeat myself, the point isn't to rank more points 1st, then 2nd best, then 3rd best, then 4th best ... then nth-1 best, then nth best, that's not it

the point is that in the OHL look more closely at guys who have 10 more points than a point per game, in the WHL look at guys with 5 more points than 1 point per game, in the Q look at guys with 100 points in a season.

It's quite obvious that players don't only score, they have to play defense as well. I thought I'd let you figure that part out, but I'll explain it then. The 10 point rule is only a threshold that's highly recommended ... or at least that I recommend ... for the success of a player, it doesn't end there. Make your list of players who pass the test, then do all the black magic projection that you want, I'm not good at it. I said it before, I'm an idiot and very ignorant person, I can't figure that stuff out. All I can tell you is if a guy has enough production to be looked at.

I haven't figured out the ds yet, except, if a WHL d-man has a point per game or is on pace for 17 some goals like Mike Green and Phaneuf, get them while you can.

I haven't looked at goalies yet

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04-06-2009, 03:57 PM
  #484
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
are you kidding me, Schremp barely had 70 points in his draft year. Schremp is the typical not much production yet is sold as a scoring machine.
Well, to be fair, he was over your ten points thing

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04-06-2009, 04:08 PM
  #485
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Well, to be fair, he was over your ten points thing
ok sorry, I didn't see he was traded that year

I just went over the recent Habs draft and selected the next player who met the criteria when it was needed

you get Brad Boyes instead of Hossa
I have no problem with Komi since he's a d-man but the next guy was Hemsky
Higgins meets it
Jeff Carter instead of Andre
Mike Green instead of Chipchura
Price is fine since he's a goalie
Giroux instead of Fischer
Perron instead of Pacioretty

and in the 2nd round

I'd be really tempted to say Keith for Linart but since I don't have the exact computation for d-men I won't say it; but he was still the only d-man around who had done something in north america
Fritsche instead of Urquart
Latendresse is fine, thought right before Stastny met the criteria
Milroy was fine but hey can't have them all right ... although when in doubt you can give the edge to the underrated guy from Quebec who was Pominville (met the criteria)

you can add to that 97 with Ward instead of Morrow
Matt Higgins instead of Brière
and take Jeff Schantz instead of Valeri Bure


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04-06-2009, 04:11 PM
  #486
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Look FSU Seminoles

According to your draft methodology, Steve Bernier should be better than Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, Carter, Richards, etc.

Guess what? I wouldn't take him over AK46.

It just doesn't work. You just point out when your theory and success meet, never when they don't. That's what I call spreading BS.

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04-06-2009, 04:21 PM
  #487
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I wouldn't call Fehr a bust, he had a lot of troubles with injuries but he's getting there. Still too young.

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04-06-2009, 04:23 PM
  #488
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I wouldn't call Fehr a bust, he had a lot of troubles with injuries but he's getting there. Still too young.
good, I'll take Bernier instead

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04-06-2009, 04:25 PM
  #489
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Well he was taken before so it's not like the Caps had the choice.

Still, Bernier has 32 pts in 78 games, Fehr 25 in 58.

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04-06-2009, 04:26 PM
  #490
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Well he was taken before so it's not like the Caps had the choice.

Still, Bernier has 32 pts in 78 games, Fehr 25 in 58.
quite a few more hits




btw, here's the ISS on Caron

RISING

Jordan Caron - Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) -- Caron has been a model of consistency for the Rimouski Oceanic this season and has become one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the QMJHL this year. Caron had a very productive regular season with 35 goals and 30 assists in 54 games. Caron has the size and skill to play at the next level -- a good skater with mobility, he protects the puck well, shows good hands and a good shot. He has a nose for the net, a deceptively quick stick, and a good scoring touch.

what's not to like honestly other than he plays in the Q, which is a bad thing for you I know but anyway

and 3 articles on Glennie

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2009/NHL-D.../Scott-Glennie
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/03/scott-glennie.html
http://national-hockey-league-nhl.su..._draft_profile


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04-06-2009, 05:22 PM
  #491
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
btw, here's the ISS on Caron

RISING

Jordan Caron - Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) -- Caron has been a model of consistency for the Rimouski Oceanic this season and has become one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the QMJHL this year. Caron had a very productive regular season with 35 goals and 30 assists in 54 games. Caron has the size and skill to play at the next level -- a good skater with mobility, he protects the puck well, shows good hands and a good shot. He has a nose for the net, a deceptively quick stick, and a good scoring touch.

what's not to like honestly other than he plays in the Q, which is a bad thing for you I know but anyway

and 3 articles on Glennie

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2009/NHL-D.../Scott-Glennie
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/03/scott-glennie.html
http://national-hockey-league-nhl.su..._draft_profile


They obviously haven't watched his game tape.

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04-06-2009, 05:22 PM
  #492
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
btw, here's the ISS on Caron

RISING

Jordan Caron - Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) -- Caron has been a model of consistency for the Rimouski Oceanic this season and has become one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the QMJHL this year. Caron had a very productive regular season with 35 goals and 30 assists in 54 games. Caron has the size and skill to play at the next level -- a good skater with mobility, he protects the puck well, shows good hands and a good shot. He has a nose for the net, a deceptively quick stick, and a good scoring touch.

what's not to like honestly other than he plays in the Q, which is a bad thing for you I know but anyway

and 3 articles on Glennie

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2009/NHL-D.../Scott-Glennie
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/03/scott-glennie.html
http://national-hockey-league-nhl.su..._draft_profile
Him playing in the Q isn't a problem for anyone. Most of us were just saying that you don't have to pick a player because he's french or he's playing in the Q. All we want is a player...we want the best player available. If he's Jordan Caron, then great...if he's Amadoun Garagasco from Egypt, or Zing Ji, from China, it's fine too...

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04-06-2009, 05:25 PM
  #493
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They obviously haven't watched his game tape.
you neither

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04-06-2009, 05:27 PM
  #494
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you neither
You're telling me you think Jordan Caron is a good skater with good mobility?

That's it, I'm out of here.

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04-06-2009, 05:31 PM
  #495
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You're telling me you think Jordan Caron is a good skater with good mobility?

That's it, I'm out of here.
yeah not bad, it doesn't say great, it says good

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04-06-2009, 05:35 PM
  #496
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yeah not bad, it doesn't say great, it says good
I'd probably put him in the top 10 worst skaters in the top 30 forwards.

He's average at best. Haven't looked at his strides (mostly because acceleration looks ok), but his speed is nothing to brag about.

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04-06-2009, 05:39 PM
  #497
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good, I think he's a hockey player just like Glennie, and I'd take those guys late in the 1st round and run


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04-06-2009, 05:47 PM
  #498
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Glennie is an obvious top 15. If you'd get him late in the 1st, you wouldn't be running away, you'd be arrested for grand theft.

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04-06-2009, 05:48 PM
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you'll have to tell me what the top 15 is because I've seen 25 guys go in the top 15 this year at least


Watch the guy play. Please.

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04-06-2009, 05:48 PM
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Glennie is an obvious top 15. If you'd get him late in the 1st, you wouldn't be running away, you'd be arrested for grand theft.
you'll have to tell me what the top 15 is because I've seen 25 guys go in the top 15 this year at least

Quote:
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Watch the guy play. Please.
fine, but what's the top 15 in your opinion?

you don't seem to like the ISS but they have him at 20 ... btw, how good is the ISS at predicting who goes in what neighborhood at the draft?


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