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How high of a first rounder could kaberle get at draft?

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Old
04-09-2009, 11:36 AM
  #101
Cool Hand Luke
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Florida will lose Jaybo. They will need a replacement.

To Toronto:
1st (15th overall)
Matthias
Anthony Stewart

To Florida:
Kaberle
Stajan

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04-09-2009, 01:02 PM
  #102
Jonathan Toews
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dallas is 8th or 9th right now i think, i would believe that kaberle + someone for dallas pick + someone could be a deal

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04-09-2009, 01:16 PM
  #103
Sad Panda
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I'd say Kaberle to either Phoenix or LA for their first round pick is a solid deal for both sides. Obviously other components could be involved to help balance for both teams, but here you have two squads (PHX/LA) who are loaded with young talent. In a few years it'll be very hard to keep all that together and the window for winning with really young loaded teams is short.

Kaberle gives them a top level puck moving defenseman on a great contract. Both teams really could use him right now a lot more than another top level prospect, imo. It's a great trade for the Leafs and either Phoenix or the Kings. Toronto could end up with two top seven picks (one of LA's or PHX's and their own #7), and the other club with Kaberle is very likely a playoff team next season.

It hurts the Leafs in the short term, but it's great for them in the long term. For Phoenix or LA it's a huge plus right now and won't really affect them in the long run. Anybody thinking Kaberle is not worth a first is nuts, more so to teams who are on the verge of breaking out and already loaded with young players.

It doesn't cost them anyone off their roster (sorry leaf fans but Kabs is not getting a 1st, a roster player, & a prospect).

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04-09-2009, 01:35 PM
  #104
GAGLine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke View Post
Florida will lose Jaybo. They will need a replacement.

To Toronto:
1st (15th overall)
Matthias
Anthony Stewart

To Florida:
Kaberle
Stajan
You're correct that Florida needs a replacement for J-bo, but that won't be the deal they make. They will trade J-bo's rights to Toronto straight up for Kaberle. Toronto will then sign J-bo before he becomes a UFA.

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04-09-2009, 01:48 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Not that I'm going to defend those who feel Kaberle is worthless (which I view as a ridiculous suggestion) but I suspect that is a reaction against those who are posting stuff like "Kaberle could easily get us a top five pick" (which I saw just yesterday). Extremes tend to balance themselves out on the board.
sure he could ...a team trades their 2010 1st rounder for him, and then goes into the tank for whatever reason like the Av's (see the Tom Kurvers deal as a point of ref)

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04-09-2009, 02:07 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
sure he could ...a team trades their 2010 1st rounder for him, and then goes into the tank for whatever reason like the Av's (see the Tom Kurvers deal as a point of ref)
not to hijack or anything, but that deal makes me throw up in my mouth everytime.

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Old
04-09-2009, 02:10 PM
  #107
Dick Whitman
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Originally Posted by TML4LIFE View Post
Kaberle has two years left at 4.25. He's not going anywhere for two years, and who is to say he wouldn't resign with the team he is playing for at that time. Not sure what your point is.
Simple math. 200 - 82 - 82 = 36. He isn't signed beyond that year and he won't be re-signing for the 4.75million dollars he is currently making. Tomas Kaberle is as likely to become an unrestricted free agent as he is to re-sign with whatever team he is traded to.

A high end pick can stay property of an organization for up to 7 years without the risk of losing them to free agency. Prospects can bust or they can boom and there are many that are capable of booming to be better (of more value) than Kaberle alone.

Of course the Leafs want a draft pick and a top prospect for Kaberle but don't expect anyone in the top 10 to offer that up. Don't think Ottawa, as an example would want to trade OEL or Kulikov and Karlsson for 2 seasons of Kaberle.

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04-09-2009, 02:12 PM
  #108
Dick Whitman
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Originally Posted by Sad Panda View Post
I'd say Kaberle to either Phoenix or LA for their first round pick is a solid deal for both sides. Obviously other components could be involved to help balance for both teams, but here you have two squads (PHX/LA) who are loaded with young talent. In a few years it'll be very hard to keep all that together and the window for winning with really young loaded teams is short.

Kaberle gives them a top level puck moving defenseman on a great contract. Both teams really could use him right now a lot more than another top level prospect, imo. It's a great trade for the Leafs and either Phoenix or the Kings. Toronto could end up with two top seven picks (one of LA's or PHX's and their own #7), and the other club with Kaberle is very likely a playoff team next season.

It hurts the Leafs in the short term, but it's great for them in the long term. For Phoenix or LA it's a huge plus right now and won't really affect them in the long run. Anybody thinking Kaberle is not worth a first is nuts, more so to teams who are on the verge of breaking out and already loaded with young players.

It doesn't cost them anyone off their roster (sorry leaf fans but Kabs is not getting a 1st, a roster player, & a prospect).
You make a good point but look at Chicago. They added Campbell in the offseason without sacrificing an asset and they aren't considered a serious threat to win the cup. Good team and they have a shot but if you're going to give up a top end prospect, it'll have to bring you to the top or near the top, which kaberle wouldn't do for either team.

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Old
04-09-2009, 02:23 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Hiphopopotamus View Post
Simple math. 200 - 82 - 82 = 36. He isn't signed beyond that year and he won't be re-signing for the 4.75million dollars he is currently making. Tomas Kaberle is as likely to become an unrestricted free agent as he is to re-sign with whatever team he is traded to.
He makes 4.25 per year. Two seasons is a very long time in this league, so that's really an odd point to be making. Either way, I think he'll stay in Toronto.

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04-09-2009, 05:15 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by AlMo View Post
Most dmen with Kabby's talent are making over 6 million per season so I don't understand how you can say Kaberle is becoming less and less a bargain. Honestly, your statement makes very little sense.
Likely less of a bargain as:
1)He's statistically declining
2)His contract is getting shorter each year they choose not to deal him. (2 years ago it was a 4 year bargain contract)
3)He's getting older with each year that passes they don't trade him.

I think his value is gradually declining. I'd be interested to see someone argue his value has incresed over time. The obvious argument is something along the lines of "you see what dmen get these day (Redden reference)", but even then I'd that the redden deal and Finger deals are considered to be brutal and should not be the basis of comparison.

His value is declining, if you don't believe me just ask Jeff Carter (and a 1st).

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Old
04-09-2009, 06:49 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Oblivion View Post
3)He's getting older with each year that passes they don't trade him.
Why do people post that?
Is there anyone on this planet getting younger? If so could you please let me know how i can get in contact with them, i'd pay anything for that secret.

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Old
04-09-2009, 10:25 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oblivion View Post
Likely less of a bargain as:
1)He's statistically declining
2)His contract is getting shorter each year they choose not to deal him. (2 years ago it was a 4 year bargain contract)
3)He's getting older with each year that passes they don't trade him.

I think his value is gradually declining. I'd be interested to see someone argue his value has incresed over time. The obvious argument is something along the lines of "you see what dmen get these day (Redden reference)", but even then I'd that the redden deal and Finger deals are considered to be brutal and should not be the basis of comparison.

His value is declining, if you don't believe me just ask Jeff Carter (and a 1st).

When you look at the top scoring defensemen this year, 7 of the top 10 are in their 30's, so I don't think age is the reason for his points decline. I think you have to look at the overall level of talent on the Leafs, because he's has always gotten most of his points from assists, so how much of the points decline is the departure of high end goal scoring talent (i.e. Sundin, McCabe, etc.)?

And if you look at his TOI/G stats, you'll see a decline every year from 28 mins (2005)to approx 23 mins this year. Back then Leafs were pushing for the playoffs and he and McCabe was on the ice for half the game. Now Leafs are giving rookies more ice time and trying to develop them. If Kaberle played an extra 5 mins a game (and didn't break his hand), he'd probably be putting up his usual 50-60 pts.

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Old
04-09-2009, 10:27 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by drofnats View Post
. If Kaberle played an extra 5 mins a game (and didn't break his hand), he'd probably be putting up his usual 50-60 pts.
Plus he was on a pace that would have put him just under 50 points. He's remarkably consistent, considering how bad the Leafs have been at times this year.

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04-10-2009, 12:37 AM
  #114
Oblivion
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Originally Posted by leaflover View Post
Why do people post that?
Is there anyone on this planet getting younger? If so could you please let me know how i can get in contact with them, i'd pay anything for that secret.
Regardless if it's possible or not, it likely detracts from his value. Unless you feel Kaberle has gotten better in the past 2 years.

Not really getting younger but he's "using up" his years in his prime.


Last edited by Oblivion: 04-10-2009 at 06:42 PM.
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Old
04-10-2009, 12:44 AM
  #115
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There is a 0.0% chance that Kaberle could be traded for the first or second overall pick, but I think it's very possible to see him in a package deal for anything below 3. After all, the 3rd-9th or so picks are fairly commensurate in terms of overall talent, right?

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04-10-2009, 12:49 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Oblivion View Post


Regardless if it's possible or not, it likely detracts from his value. Unless you feel Kaberle has gotten better in the past 2 years.
I honestly doubt having just turned 31 has much affect on his value. Any team interested in Kaberle has made a conscious decision to add a proven veteran puckmoving defenseman. Teams looking to solidify that position for the next 10 years would never have had interest, they're likely putting that task in the hands of their amateur scouts.

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04-10-2009, 12:22 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by leaflover View Post
I honestly doubt having just turned 31 has much affect on his value. Any team interested in Kaberle has made a conscious decision to add a proven veteran puckmoving defenseman. Teams looking to solidify that position for the next 10 years would never have had interest, they're likely putting that task in the hands of their amateur scouts.
I suppose I can see your point, truth be told 31 is actually likely the tail end of Kaberle's prime years. I was more responding tot the fact that I thought you were rferring to the fact age would have no effect on his value. It has a negative impact, but I can agree with you it is likely minimal.

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04-10-2009, 12:53 PM
  #118
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It would signal that the team wants to get competitive and soon ... and having a puck-moving defenseman like Kaberle is one of the key components of all playoff teams.
There's a pretty big difference between wanting to be competitive and actually being competitive.

I have no doubt that the Leafs *want* to be competitive next year. I also have no doubt that they won't be competitive next year.

Even if the Leafs signed Bouwmeester and both Sedins this summer, they still won't make the playoffs. I'm not sure Leaf fans are aware of how bad their team is and how dire the situation is in terms of youth in the system. Don't be fooled by Ron Wilson having the club play an "expansion team" style of hockey. It makes the team look like it's competing hard and it's pretty close to being a decent club.

The Leafs are lousy and their is precious little talent on that team. When you're counting on Jason Blake and Ponikarovsky for your offense, things are really, really bad.

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04-10-2009, 01:07 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by FerrisRox View Post
There's a pretty big difference between wanting to be competitive and actually being competitive.

I have no doubt that the Leafs *want* to be competitive next year. I also have no doubt that they won't be competitive next year.

Even if the Leafs signed Bouwmeester and both Sedins this summer, they still won't make the playoffs. I'm not sure Leaf fans are aware of how bad their team is and how dire the situation is in terms of youth in the system. Don't be fooled by Ron Wilson having the club play an "expansion team" style of hockey. It makes the team look like it's competing hard and it's pretty close to being a decent club.

The Leafs are lousy and their is precious little talent on that team. When you're counting on Jason Blake and Ponikarovsky for your offense, things are really, really bad.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but guys like Blake and Poni would rank very high on the Canadiens stat sheet.

My initial expectations for this team this year was that they would be in serious consideration for the 1st overall pick. That was wrong.

Considering we have guys like Deveraux and Jeff Hamilton in our lineup, along with the addition of Gerber in net, and still able to beat good teams shows that there is something there that perhaps a Bouwmester and/or Sedins could put them into the playoffs.

The real problem with the team is goaltending. Hopefully Toskala can get healthy and regain his form from last season. I am expecting to make the playoffs next year.

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04-10-2009, 01:18 PM
  #120
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Why has nobody used the Ryan Whitney deal as a reference. Similar contract hit, good O not as good D, and Whitney is 6 years younger and signed longer. The Pens had to take back similar contract in that deal and that will most likely be the case here also.

The cap is going down and teams are now less willing to add salary. The leafs can probably get a very good prospect and a roster player with a cap hit near Kaberles. The only way I see them getting a first round pick is to take a salary dump back with it. JMO

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04-10-2009, 01:43 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Jonjmc View Post
Why has nobody used the Ryan Whitney deal as a reference. Similar contract hit, good O not as good D, and Whitney is 6 years younger and signed longer. The Pens had to take back similar contract in that deal and that will most likely be the case here also.

The cap is going down and teams are now less willing to add salary. The leafs can probably get a very good prospect and a roster player with a cap hit near Kaberles. The only way I see them getting a first round pick is to take a salary dump back with it. JMO
I agree, and was about to post the same. If the Leafs take back a $2.5 million player, Kaberle become an increase of $1.75 million. Maybe a Lee Stempniak type player. The other option is the Leafs to throw in a younger cheaper NHL player to balance out the cap hit. Someone like White or Mitchell. A team adds a 3rd liner and a top pairing PP puck moving defenceman for an average of $2.5 million.

Kaberle for 1st, prospect and $2.5 million salary dump

Kaberle and Mitchell/White for 1st, 2nd and prospect.

Personally, I'd rather see the Leafs keep Kaberle and trade Kubina and MVR. They save a lot more money and keep the better player. The downside is the return for Kubina and MVR is not nearly as good.

Kubina for a late 1st or early 2nd
MVR for a 4th

Save $8 000 000
sign JayBo for $7 000 000

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04-11-2009, 01:21 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonjmc View Post
Why has nobody used the Ryan Whitney deal as a reference. Similar contract hit, good O not as good D, and Whitney is 6 years younger and signed longer. The Pens had to take back similar contract in that deal and that will most likely be the case here also.

The cap is going down and teams are now less willing to add salary. The leafs can probably get a very good prospect and a roster player with a cap hit near Kaberles. The only way I see them getting a first round pick is to take a salary dump back with it. JMO
I don't think the Whitney deal is comparable because of the circumstances. Pens arguably did not get fair value because it was at a time of the year when a player under contract would be hard to move and when scoring was at a premium. In the end, I don't think they got fair value.

Toronto is in a better position with regard to Kaberle, IMO.

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