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The 17th Pick

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Old
05-16-2009, 10:42 PM
  #101
Prussian_Blue
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I suppose I'm a bad Blues fan now because I suggested we make a trade?
No, not at all... you're just a Blues fan who suggested that "we" make a bad trade...

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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
Let me ask you what do you think Berglund will become?
A 6-04, 215-pound, number one center who regularly scores 25-35 goals, 70-80 points, and plays against the other teams' top centers.

I'll take a player like that every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Next question.

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05-16-2009, 11:02 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
No, not at all... you're just a Blues fan who suggested that "we" make a bad trade...



A 6-04, 215-pound, number one center who regularly scores 25-35 goals, 70-80 points, and plays against the other teams' top centers.

I'll take a player like that every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

Next question.

P_B
A Bad trade? According to who?..you. So you would take Berglund over Tavares?

6-04 215 pounds yes that is fact,he is not a number one center and he hasn't put up 70-80 points "yet" and maybe never will. Your projecting Berglund to put up these numbers but turn around and say Tavares isn't proven and is a couple of years behind Berglund on the development curve.What if Tavares puts up better numbers than Berglund in his 1st or 2nd year?Would you still pick Berglund every day of the week?

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05-16-2009, 11:20 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
A Bad trade? According to who?..you. So you would take Berglund over Tavares?

6-04 215 pounds yes that is fact,he is not a number one center and he hasn't put up 70-80 points "yet" and maybe never will. Your projecting Berglund to put up these numbers but turn around and say Tavares isn't proven and is a couple of years behind Berglund on the development curve.What if Tavares puts up better numbers than Berglund in his 1st or 2nd year?Would you still pick Berglund every day of the week?
I would take Berglund, Boyes, and a guy like Shore over Tavares.

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05-16-2009, 11:32 PM
  #104
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Dont get me wrong, I like Shore, but have only seen him play once this year early on in the season and I didnt get to see much of what he can do. What is it about his playing style that you guys like so much about to put him ahead of Josefson, Caron(who made a few nice moves last night in their loss to Kelowna), and a few other guys who will still be on the board, what makes drew shore the keeper, thanks?
Shore is a good sized playmaking forward, but he's got a wicked shot when he decides to use it. He's aggressive on the puck and is stable in his own end. He isn't a liability in the defensive zone.

Think a smaller Joe Thornton.

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05-16-2009, 11:36 PM
  #105
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Sure no problem, here are some examples Sidney Crosby,Alex Ovechkin,Joe Thornton,Vinnie Lecavalier,Iginila,Patrick Kane, Eric Staal,Getzlaf ...a player who is going to take charge and lead our team into the playoffs.

What I think Berglund will become,probably not much more than a second liner.I'm not bashing Berglund so don't try and turn this around and imply I'm turning this into a Berglund hate thread...all I said was if we have the chance to bring in a guy like Tavares and Berglund is a casualty of that then "I" would do it.

I suppose I'm a bad Blues fan now because I suggested we make a trade?

Let me ask you what do you think Berglund will become?
Berglund is basically a first line player already. Believe it.

First line players score 50 or more points or 20 or more goals. Statistically, that's top 90 in forwards in the NHL. As a 20 year old rookie, he got 21 goals and 47 points in 76 games including hitting a major wall due to conditioning.

That wall popped up around February 3rd. After that, he still had 15 points in 32 games, which is solid. As a matter of fact, that is second line pace (38 points over 82 games). But prior to hitting that wall, Berglund scored 32 points in 44 games. Over a full season, that's 30 goals and 60 points.

So, just with improved conditioning, not improved strength, skills, or experience, Berglund is top 40 in goals and top 60 in points. And that's with just 14:43 icetime per game.
He's just 20. Alongside that conditioning will come strength, skill, and experience. It might sound like I'm a crazy homer, but it's completely reasonable, based on his performance in the 08-09 season, to predict 35 goals and 70 points next season. I would guess more along the lines of 25-30 goals and 55-60 points because I'm conservative when projecting point totals; and I wouldn't guess that his conditioning will be ideal NHL level next year either.

So unless you think he peaked this year, Berglund is easily a first-line player.

Whether or not you believe he will ascend to being an elite forward is another issue. There are only about ten consistently elite forwards in the game these days. So saying Berglund won't hit 90 points or 40+ goals isn't what I'd call a crazy prediction. It's incredibly safe and sensible, because very few players reach that level.

Totals at the age of 20:
Getzlaf: 82 games, 25 goals, 33 assists, 58 points
Iginla: 82 games, 28 goals, 23 assists, 51 points
Thornton: 81 games, 23 goals, 37 assists, 60 points
Staal: played at a point per game in the AHL during the lockout, but at the age of 19: 81 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points
Lecavalier: 68 games, 23 goals, 28 assists, 51 points - and the following year, he played 76 games and had 20 goals and 17 assists for 37 points.

Every single one of those guys played in the NHL a year earlier than Berglund and they all played in North America before that. And his totals from his rookie year still pretty much keep up with theirs.

You have to realize that guys like Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are incredible. You don't even get them every generation. So you can hope for a guy like that, but Tavares isn't that guy. Tavares probably won't even be as good as Kane, who is a step below guys like Crosby, but a step above the rest.

Another thing you get from those stats is that larger guys take longer to blossom, but the curve of their improvement is ridiculous.

I'm not saying Berglund will be as good as any one of those guys. In general, I'd say that he won't (even though I wouldn't be surprised). But your expectations and understanding of what makes a player a first line player are all over the map. He's already basically graduated from second line production with absolute dirt for icetime.

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05-17-2009, 12:42 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
Berglund is basically a first line player already. Believe it.

First line players score 50 or more points or 20 or more goals. Statistically, that's top 90 in forwards in the NHL. As a 20 year old rookie, he got 21 goals and 47 points in 76 games including hitting a major wall due to conditioning.

That wall popped up around February 3rd. After that, he still had 15 points in 32 games, which is solid. As a matter of fact, that is second line pace (38 points over 82 games). But prior to hitting that wall, Berglund scored 32 points in 44 games. Over a full season, that's 30 goals and 60 points.

So, just with improved conditioning, not improved strength, skills, or experience, Berglund is top 40 in goals and top 60 in points. And that's with just 14:43 icetime per game.
He's just 20. Alongside that conditioning will come strength, skill, and experience. It might sound like I'm a crazy homer, but it's completely reasonable, based on his performance in the 08-09 season, to predict 35 goals and 70 points next season. I would guess more along the lines of 25-30 goals and 55-60 points because I'm conservative when projecting point totals; and I wouldn't guess that his conditioning will be ideal NHL level next year either.

So unless you think he peaked this year, Berglund is easily a first-line player.

Whether or not you believe he will ascend to being an elite forward is another issue. There are only about ten consistently elite forwards in the game these days. So saying Berglund won't hit 90 points or 40+ goals isn't what I'd call a crazy prediction. It's incredibly safe and sensible, because very few players reach that level.

Totals at the age of 20:
Getzlaf: 82 games, 25 goals, 33 assists, 58 points
Iginla: 82 games, 28 goals, 23 assists, 51 points
Thornton: 81 games, 23 goals, 37 assists, 60 points
Staal: played at a point per game in the AHL during the lockout, but at the age of 19: 81 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points
Lecavalier: 68 games, 23 goals, 28 assists, 51 points - and the following year, he played 76 games and had 20 goals and 17 assists for 37 points.

Every single one of those guys played in the NHL a year earlier than Berglund and they all played in North America before that. And his totals from his rookie year still pretty much keep up with theirs.

You have to realize that guys like Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are incredible. You don't even get them every generation. So you can hope for a guy like that, but Tavares isn't that guy. Tavares probably won't even be as good as Kane, who is a step below guys like Crosby, but a step above the rest.

Another thing you get from those stats is that larger guys take longer to blossom, but the curve of their improvement is ridiculous.

I'm not saying Berglund will be as good as any one of those guys. In general, I'd say that he won't (even though I wouldn't be surprised). But your expectations and understanding of what makes a player a first line player are all over the map. He's already basically graduated from second line production with absolute dirt for icetime.
Alright I'm done arguing I don't know how in the world you can say Tavares won't be as good as Kane when Berglund isn't even as good as Kane, we are not even comparing Kane to Tavares anyways and as for Tavares not being an incredible player the guy broke Gretzky's record of most goals in the Ontario Hockey League not very many players that come along can do that.

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05-17-2009, 01:01 AM
  #107
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05-17-2009, 01:06 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
Alright I'm done arguing I don't know how in the world you can say Tavares won't be as good as Kane when Berglund isn't even as good as Kane, we are not even comparing Kane to Tavares anyways and as for Tavares not being an incredible player the guy broke Gretzky's record of most goals in the Ontario Hockey League not very many players that come along can do that.
So you're finished arguing as soon as evidence come into play?

I never said Berglund was as good as Kane. He's not. Did you just look at that line and ignore the rest of the post? I'm not using that to argue that Berglund is better than Tavares or anything like that. If you think I am, you must have read another post or you think I'm somebody else. All I said was that Kane is special. So far his stats and his progression at his age are ahead of multiple guys who have turned out to be elite forwards. I was using that to show how rare players like that are and how even most elite players take time to develop.

Realize that I'm not trying to talk down your desire for Tavares. He's an exciting prospect.
But I gave strong evidence for why your opinion about Berglund is shoddy. Opinions are stronger or weaker based on evidence. You think Berglund will top out as a second liner when I've established that he's already better than that. If you don't think I've established that, you need to explain why. And something like a guess or a gut feeling won't cut it. But if I have established it in your eyes, then it's time to revise your opinion, isn't it?

Do you honestly think Berglund has reached his potential at the age of 20, after his first year in North America and his first year in the NHL?

What, to you, constitutes a "first line" player? And how many elite/"franchise" players (especially forwards) do you think are in the league?

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05-17-2009, 03:11 AM
  #109
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Evidence what evidence? Your talking about his potential based on this year(rookie year) that is not evidence.He didn't even play 7 minutes a game in the playoffs that should be evidence enough that he is not a 1st line player not yet and probably not for a while.Look at the players who will be fighting for ice time next year.

Kariya,Mcdonald,Boyes,Perron,Oshie,Backes,Berglund ,(Eller?) and that's not to say Walt won't be back next year and possibly any FA we might add.I wouldn't be surprised to see Berglund on the 3rd line next year.I do not think Berglund has reached his potential neither has Perron,Oshie,,Backes and maybe not even Boyes.I really don't understand what your getting at first you say you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares but hen you say "I'm not using Kane to argue that Berglund is better than Tavares or anything like that" well if you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares wouldn't that mean you think Berglund is or will be the better player?

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05-17-2009, 10:44 AM
  #110
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I hate to tell ya but that is the kind of package you will need to get Duchene.
1) That may be what they're asking for, but anybody who actually makes that deal is stupid. No un-drafted rookie, no matter how good, is worth that much.
That would be right up there with the Lindros trade in terms of worst deal ever in the NHL.


2) That package would get us darn near any player in the League(maybe not Sid or AO; but everybody else would DEFINATELY be on the table).
An established 30+ goal scorer on a VERY reasonable contract, an established top 2 line center with incredible size and outstanding potential AND a top 20 pick in a VERY deep draft.
That would be the second biggest package ever offered for a single player, bar none.

Why would we move them for Duchene when we could get Kovalchuk, Spezza, Heatley, Malkin, Vinny or somebody of that caliber for the same price? It is stupid, makes absolutely no sense for us and would GUT our forward ranks.

3) You're not only VASTLY under-rating our own players, you're vastly over-rating Duchene, Tavares and Hedman. They are not Elite players yet. It's possible they never even become Elite players. All 3 of them have flaws in their games that might hinder their developement at the next level.
Tavares isn't a good skater and doesn't play a good 2-way game. He's worked very hard to improve those aspects of his game, but he's still well below NHL quality there.
Hedman plays FAR softer than his 6'5" frame says he should and he's shown no semblance of being able to learn how to play a physical game. He particularly doesn't seem to know how handle an aggressive forecheck and that most certainly will have to change if he's going to be anything worthwhile in the NHL.
Duchene is small and isn't half the goal scorer that you're playing him up to be. Duchene is a playmaker first and foremost; he has a good wrist shot but doesn't use it nearly as often as he should. He is a pass-first player and could very easily top out as nothing more than Henrik Sedin(good player, but FAR from "Elite" status).

You say you want an Elite player, and that is fine, but you don't gut the team for an unproven player. That is simply stupid and reckless. Look at what it did to Philly.

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05-17-2009, 10:55 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
Evidence what evidence? Your talking about his potential based on this year(rookie year) that is not evidence.He didn't even play 7 minutes a game in the playoffs that should be evidence enough that he is not a 1st line player not yet and probably not for a while.Look at the players who will be fighting for ice time next year.
1) Yes, it is evidence. Developement curves are more than just proven and most players can be projected by how they fit into those curves.
By comparing production rates at similar stages in those curves you can get a fairly accurate picture of how somebody will turn out.
It's one of the most used methods in a scouts arsenal.

2) By comparing Berglund to similar players at the same age, you can get a very accurate picture of where he ranks among them. That said, I'm not entirely sure that rumrokh did that. Not a one of those players were rookies at the age of 20 and that does have to be considered a factor.


Quote:
Kariya,Mcdonald,Boyes,Perron,Oshie,Backes,Berglund ,(Eller?) and that's not to say Walt won't be back next year and possibly any FA we might add.I wouldn't be surprised to see Berglund on the 3rd line next year.I do not think Berglund has reached his potential neither has Perron,Oshie,,Backes and maybe not even Boyes.I really don't understand what your getting at first you say you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares but hen you say "I'm not using Kane to argue that Berglund is better than Tavares or anything like that" well if you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares wouldn't that mean you think Berglund is or will be the better player?
And yet by discounting the developement curve like you did above you've already writen all of them off as being potential Elite players.
Please explain this to me.

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05-17-2009, 11:24 AM
  #112
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Evidence what evidence? Your talking about his potential based on this year(rookie year) that is not evidence.He didn't even play 7 minutes a game in the playoffs that should be evidence enough that he is not a 1st line player not yet and probably not for a while.Look at the players who will be fighting for ice time next year.

Kariya,Mcdonald,Boyes,Perron,Oshie,Backes,Berglund ,(Eller?) and that's not to say Walt won't be back next year and possibly any FA we might add.I wouldn't be surprised to see Berglund on the 3rd line next year.I do not think Berglund has reached his potential neither has Perron,Oshie,,Backes and maybe not even Boyes.I really don't understand what your getting at first you say you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares but hen you say "I'm not using Kane to argue that Berglund is better than Tavares or anything like that" well if you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares wouldn't that mean you think Berglund is or will be the better player?

Season stats aren't good enough evidence but his TOI in the playoffs is...wow. If he doesn't surpass his rookie season numbers during the next 4-5 years, then you can probably rule him out of possibly becoming a #1 center.

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05-17-2009, 12:13 PM
  #113
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A Bad trade? According to who?..you.
Yep.

See also Kimzey's analysis above.

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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
So you would take Berglund over Tavares?
Right now, today... you're damn right I would.

So would the GM that accepts the trade you propose...

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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
6-04 215 pounds yes that is fact
Thank you.

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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
,he is not a number one center and he hasn't put up 70-80 points "yet" and maybe never will.
Neither has Tavares.

At least Berglund has played in the NHL. What's Tavares done, besides rack up points against junior-age kids, 90% of whom will never see a minute in the NHL?

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Your projecting Berglund to put up these numbers but turn around and say Tavares isn't proven and is a couple of years behind Berglund on the development curve.


Berglund scored over 100 points in 81 games over two years at the Division 2 level in Sweden, then jumped right to the NHL at age 20 with no time spent in the American League. He scored 21 goals and 47 points (and was a plus-19 to boot) as a rookie in the NHL.

That's 150 points in three years, all playing against men, including a successful year at age 20 playing against the best players in the world.

Come see me when Tavares has done that. And even if he does, Berglund will still have done it first, which places Berglund ahead of Tavares on the development curve as of right now.

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What if Tavares puts up better numbers than Berglund in his 1st or 2nd year? Would you still pick Berglund every day of the week?
Now who's making projections?

And yes, I'd still rather have Berglund as of right now. In two years, I may change my mind. In two years, Jesus may come down out of Heaven and usher in a thousand years of peace and prosperity for mankind, at which point none of this will matter...



P_B

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05-17-2009, 12:40 PM
  #114
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Berglund is ONLY 20 years old, and just played his first season on the smaller ice surface and first with the long season. He was given limited playing time, missed some games, and "hit the wall". He was not on a high scoring team, and played much with no veterans on his line. Yet he scored well.

Big players often take longer to mature and get their game together (learn how to use their size, strength and weight to their advantage). Often, they have to adapt their skating style more to the "new, faster game" more tha\n the smaller, more speed dependent forwards. We cannot really know how good Berglund will be, based on just his rookie season.

I think he'll be a fine first line 2-way centre, who will score at a ppg clip, if not better. He should be at least a few-time all star, and probably lead his team in scoring several times. If things go really well, he might become an elite player (or just short of that level), but I'm not counting on that.

We won't be unhappy with him (I'd just about guarantee that).

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05-17-2009, 01:48 PM
  #115
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What forward in this draft do you see being the best center with Palushaj on one side and Eller on the other. Who would be the right fit for these two guys when they are all NHL?(try and pick people who will be availabe around 17 and why you think they would fit best in our team)

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05-17-2009, 02:05 PM
  #116
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What forward in this draft do you see being the best center with Palushaj on one side and Eller on the other. Who would be the right fit for these two guys when they are all NHL?(try and pick people who will be availabe around 17 and why you think they would fit best in our team)
Drew Shore.

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05-17-2009, 02:13 PM
  #117
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Evidence what evidence? Your talking about his potential based on this year(rookie year) that is not evidence.He didn't even play 7 minutes a game in the playoffs that should be evidence enough that he is not a 1st line player not yet and probably not for a while.Look at the players who will be fighting for ice time next year.

Kariya,Mcdonald,Boyes,Perron,Oshie,Backes,Berglund ,(Eller?) and that's not to say Walt won't be back next year and possibly any FA we might add.I wouldn't be surprised to see Berglund on the 3rd line next year.I do not think Berglund has reached his potential neither has Perron,Oshie,,Backes and maybe not even Boyes.I really don't understand what your getting at first you say you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares but hen you say "I'm not using Kane to argue that Berglund is better than Tavares or anything like that" well if you wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares wouldn't that mean you think Berglund is or will be the better player?
Please find my post where I said I wouldn't trade Berglund for Tavares or that I think Berglund will be the better player.

I think that's where the confusion is coming in. You're obsessed with something that I never said and it's clouding your ability to understand the rest of my comments.

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05-17-2009, 02:20 PM
  #118
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Does anyone think Jarmo will go off the board to pick Chris Kreider?

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05-17-2009, 02:32 PM
  #119
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Does anyone think Jarmo will go off the board to pick Chris Kreider?
At this point I'm not sure he's that off the board. As soon as I read about him I thought, "sounds like a Jarmo pick." The Blues seem to have a preference for USA players and Swedes lately, and there are plenty of good Swedes projected in the first and second rounds this year.

We knew the Blues were interested in at least both Berglunds, Eller, and McRae beforehand in the last couple of drafts. This year seems like one where you just don't know until you see who's left at your turn.

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05-17-2009, 02:59 PM
  #120
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Does anyone think Jarmo will go off the board to pick Chris Kreider?
I agree with rumrokh that Kreider at 17 wouldn't even be considered "off the board" at this point. As for if Jarmo would pick him...sure, why not? I guess it depends how often they got a scout to watch him play and if they got a good read on him or not.

Kreider's one of the real wild cards in this draft. He's an unknown to most. Will he be a steal or is he being overvalued? Who knows. Hopefully Jarmo and his staff can make the right pick. One thing's for certain about Kreider though - he's not likely to make the jump to the NHL very soon. He's only a Junior at Andover Prep so he has another season (either at Andover or the USHL or QMJHL) before he even starts his college career at BC.

I'm not all that high on Shore and am fairly lukewarm on guys like Kassian, Holland and Ashton but what do I know? I think this draft is going to be wide open after the first 7-8 or so picks and could go just about any way as there are a ton of guys who could go in any order after that. We'll just have to see who's still there at 17 and/or if the Blues trade up or down...I'm looking forward to June 26th.

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05-17-2009, 03:20 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by schronote View Post
What forward in this draft do you see being the best center with Palushaj on one side and Eller on the other. Who would be the right fit for these two guys when they are all NHL?(try and pick people who will be availabe around 17 and why you think they would fit best in our team)
Eller is a Center and needs to be playing center in order to be effective. He can't seem to find the net when he's playing LW.
What we "need" is a winger to go with Eller and Palushaj.

Note: I would argue that we don't really "need" anybody. If Eller is really as good as advertised then he'll likely take over as the #1 center next to Backes and Boyes.
In that scenario what we'd "need" is a winger to go with McDonald and Palushaj on line 3, and we may already have him in Phil McRae. This draft should be pure BPA to maintain the pipeline we're setting up, not a "find the missing peices" search like our Lotto picks have been.

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05-17-2009, 06:32 PM
  #122
stlweir
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I thought Eller played LW most of the season. The majority of the Blues top forwards can play wing or center so Eller will fit right in.

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05-17-2009, 07:24 PM
  #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stlweir View Post
I thought Eller played LW most of the season. The majority of the Blues top forwards can play wing or center so Eller will fit right in.
He played LW to start the year, and then injuries hit his team and he went back to center.
It wasn't until he went back to center that he started producing at a good clip.

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05-17-2009, 08:16 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
At this point I'm not sure he's that off the board. As soon as I read about him I thought, "sounds like a Jarmo pick." The Blues seem to have a preference for USA players and Swedes lately, and there are plenty of good Swedes projected in the first and second rounds this year.

We knew the Blues were interested in at least both Berglunds, Eller, and McRae beforehand in the last couple of drafts. This year seems like one where you just don't know until you see who's left at your turn.
So do you guys think using the 17th on him would be worth it? If he ends up reaching his potential he could end up as good as anyone outside the top five....assuming they reach their potential IMO.

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05-17-2009, 10:00 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Zundo View Post
So do you guys think using the 17th on him would be worth it? If he ends up reaching his potential he could end up as good as anyone outside the top five....assuming they reach their potential IMO.
It's nearly impossible to say if he's be worth it since virtually nobody has seen Kreider play but based on the scouting reports, he could definitely be a steal. Here's TSN's little blurb on Kreider:
Quote:
Scouting is an inexact science, but any scout will tell you the most difficult part of the job is evaluating players in high school or prep school.
Such is the case with Chris Kreider, a boffo skater and an absolutely dominate player with Andover Academy.
"Sometimes it's like watching Wayne Gretzky in a pick-up game," a scout said. "You're trying to decide whether those five goals he just scored were good or were they because of the competition?"
That being said, one thing for sure is that Kreider's skating is off-the-charts good.
"He's not just the best skater in the draft," a scout said, "but I'm not sure there are many guys in the NHL now who skate better than this guy. He gets out of the blocks as fast as anyone I've seen."
Kreider also still has a year left at Andover. The team taking him will almost certainly steer him to the USHL or Quebec League next season.
He's a big kid (6'2" 205 lbs) who's only going to get bigger and skates like the wind and is said to have very good offensive skills as well. He's quite the unknown but if the Blues picked him, I sure wouldn't have a problem with it.

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