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Blues' 2004 Entry Draft

View Poll Results: Which of the following players should the Blues drfat in June?
11. Dave Bolland, C/R, 6-00, 171 1 2.38%
12. Marek Schwarz, G/R, 6-00, 176 6 14.29%
13. Rostislav Olesz, LW/L, 6-01, 194 12 28.57%
14. Boris Valabik, D/L, 6-06, 211 3 7.14%
15. Alexandre Picard, LW/L, 6-02, 190 7 16.67%
16. Sami Lepisto, D/L, 6-00, 176 2 4.76%
17. Vaclav Meidl, C/L, 6-05, 198 1 2.38%
18. Lukas Kaspar, LW/R, 6-02, 202 3 7.14%
19. Alexander Radulov, RW/L, 6-01, 178, Dynamo (RUS) 3 7.14%
20. Andrej Meszaros, D/R, 6-02, 189 1 2.38%
Other player (please name and explain) 3 7.14%
Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-24-2004, 12:02 AM
  #26
King of Stankonia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c-carp
Thanks for the comments and discussions on the prospects guys. Where do most of you get your info on them if you are like me and dont live where you can see them play.

I guess I should consider myself blessed because I have a wealth of hockey available around me everyday. I live about 20 minutes from the Hershey Center so I can catch the Ice Dogs in action against OHL teams. I also have Rogers Sportsnet which carries CHL games two or three times a week, and then the Rogers community cable which carries St. Mike's Majors, Ice Dogs, and Brampton Battalion games.

To be honest though, a lot of the stuff that I get is from right here on the boards. The HF home page is a good spot for base information (i.e. physical stats, strengths and weaknesses), but by PM'ing certain people, they are very eager to help and have a good grasp on some prospects (e.g. Brock for OHL players).

Another idea would honestly be to see if you can strike up a friendship with scouts. One of my old high school teachers is now a scout for the Kitchener Rangers and has provided some wonderful insight on hockey scouting and prospects. I also know of someone who has access to Red Line Reports, McKeen's stuff, and game tapes and doesn't pay a single cent for this; he just happens to know some NHL team scouts.

The only other piece of advice I can offer is moving to Toronto, if you can stand the Blue and White parade every time they win a playoff game.

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03-24-2004, 01:55 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrussianBlue
Right here on the 'Net, mostly... hey, I live in Rockford, so I'm fully aware of the difficulties that hockey fans face in most of Illinois when it comes to getting hockey info from the traditional media.

What I do is go to the league home pages and download the stats at the end of each month, and then track how players are doing based on the changes from month to month in their stats.

For example, there's a goalie in the Quebec league, Gabriel Bouthillette, 6-04, 200 pounds. He was ranked 15th in North America by CSB at mid-term, but by comparing statistical progressions, I've been able to determine that he's gone 12-0-1 in his last 16 starts (since Halloween), with a 1.81 GAA and a .924 save percentage in that time frame.

When the mid-term rankings came out in January, he was 8-1-3 in 14 games, with a 2.58 GAA and an .895 save percentage; not all that impressive, which is why he was ranked in the middle of the pack.

As of last week, he was 17-1-3 in 24 games, with a 2.13 GAA and a .911 save percentage.

Until I did that statistical progress comparison, I wouldn't have given Bouthillette a second look. But, since I don't get the chance to see these guys play (I really miss living in Portland and being able to watch the major junior players first-hand), I can make a pretty good inference on his progression from the statistical comparison. When I find a guy like that who piques my interest, I search the team's web site for info about him; links to news articles, etc.

He's the backup in Gatineau, but that size and those numbers lead me to believe that he might be worth a mid-round pick... if someone else doesn't get to him first.

It takes some work, but scouting on-line can be fun. I've "found" a few guys that way, who ended up being NHL players. I remember the year Cajanek was drafted, I told a bunch of my friends that he would be a good addition for the Blues. They all thought I was nuts, and so was Pleau for "wasting" a pick on a 25-year-old who didn't even want to come to North America right away. Cajanek has since turned out to be a pretty good find for the Blues; not bad for the 253rd overall pick.

PrussianBlue
Thanks PB.

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03-24-2004, 01:57 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kubina_Fan
I guess I should consider myself blessed because I have a wealth of hockey available around me everyday. I live about 20 minutes from the Hershey Center so I can catch the Ice Dogs in action against OHL teams. I also have Rogers Sportsnet which carries CHL games two or three times a week, and then the Rogers community cable which carries St. Mike's Majors, Ice Dogs, and Brampton Battalion games.

To be honest though, a lot of the stuff that I get is from right here on the boards. The HF home page is a good spot for base information (i.e. physical stats, strengths and weaknesses), but by PM'ing certain people, they are very eager to help and have a good grasp on some prospects (e.g. Brock for OHL players).

Another idea would honestly be to see if you can strike up a friendship with scouts. One of my old high school teachers is now a scout for the Kitchener Rangers and has provided some wonderful insight on hockey scouting and prospects. I also know of someone who has access to Red Line Reports, McKeen's stuff, and game tapes and doesn't pay a single cent for this; he just happens to know some NHL team scouts.

The only other piece of advice I can offer is moving to Toronto, if you can stand the Blue and White parade every time they win a playoff game.
I have been to Toronto and thouroughly enjoyed it my friends i went up there with had to drag me out of the HOF. I will try to go to the prospects board more often and pay closer attention.

Thanks for the info.

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03-28-2004, 02:27 PM
  #29
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In case any of you were interested, the Kitchener Rangers have been handed their walking papers by Plymouth after losing the opening series of the OHL playoffs 4-1. There will be no more opportunities to see what Boris Valabik and Evan McGrath can do before the draft. Not that anyone here wanted those two . . .

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03-28-2004, 06:11 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Kubina_Fan
In case any of you were interested, the Kitchener Rangers have been handed their walking papers by Plymouth after losing the opening series of the OHL playoffs 4-1. There will be no more opportunities to see what Boris Valabik and Evan McGrath can do before the draft. Not that anyone here wanted those two . . .
I wouldn't say that I didn't want them on the Blues... just that there are players I want more.

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04-02-2004, 04:31 PM
  #31
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Just thought I'd update player stats from CHL playoffs featuring the players involved in the discussion. Bold indicates that the team is out of the playoffs. Mike Green is not indicated because the Saskatoon Blades did not make the WHL playoffs.

Code:
Bolland .... London (OHL) ....... 8 .. 1 .. 8 ..  9 .. + 7 .. 10
Valabik .... Kitchener (OHL) .... 5 .. 0 .. 0 ..  0 ..   0 .. 8
Picard ..... Lewiston (QMJHL) ... 7 .. 7 .. 4 .. 11 .. + 2 .. 6
Meidl ...... Plymouth (OHL) ..... 9 .. 0 .. 3 ..  3 .. - 2 .. 4
McGrath .... Kitchener (OHL) .... 5 .. 2 .. 1 ..  3 .. - 4 .. 2
EDIT - Updated Saturday, April 10.


Last edited by King of Stankonia: 04-10-2004 at 09:13 PM.
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04-04-2004, 07:59 AM
  #32
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Uh... drafting is a difficult thing.
Blues were accenuating at drafting Dmen since the start of Pleau era. Of course, we all see that Blues desperately need youth up front. But i'd say: if there is a better D by the time Blues pick, I'd pick D. Remember, you can't have too many Dmen. And if you have abundance of them, you can always swith a trade for a scorer giving up one of your D's.

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04-14-2004, 04:32 PM
  #33
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Barring a comeback against San Jose and a trip to the finals, it's time for the Blues to shake things up. By now it's obvious this current Blues team is not going to win a Cup. The Blues need a top-notch goalie and some young forwards with sniper potential. It's time to discuss trading veterans who would bring young talent and/or draft picks in return. Pronger, Tkachuk and Weight should all be made available. What do you guys think?

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04-14-2004, 05:53 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmurph
Barring a comeback against San Jose and a trip to the finals, it's time for the Blues to shake things up. By now it's obvious this current Blues team is not going to win a Cup. The Blues need a top-notch goalie and some young forwards with sniper potential. It's time to discuss trading veterans who would bring young talent and/or draft picks in return. Pronger, Tkachuk and Weight should all be made available. What do you guys think?
Well I think they should start trading the high priced talent, except for Pronger. This guy coming off wrist and knee surgery and will only get better, especially when he gets to actually work out and get stronger this summer. Plus there is no better tutor for the young defenseman in the organization.

But if they can trade tkachuk even if you only get little in return because of his contract I would do it. But dont trade him and pay half of his contract.

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Old
04-22-2004, 08:33 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmurph
Barring a comeback against San Jose and a trip to the finals, it's time for the Blues to shake things up. By now it's obvious this current Blues team is not going to win a Cup. The Blues need a top-notch goalie and some young forwards with sniper potential. It's time to discuss trading veterans who would bring young talent and/or draft picks in return. Pronger, Tkachuk and Weight should all be made available. What do you guys think?
Pronger will probably not be traded. Pleau has indicated that the team will be built around him, and probably Backman and Jackman as well. I personally feel that's the wisest course.

I wouldn't expect Weight to be traded, either. Of all the high-dollar forwards, he's the only one who showed much of anything in the San Jose series. There's also the little matter of his having a no-trade clause...

Tkachuk also has a no-trade clause, but I'd expect that he'd waive it for a move to an Eastern Conference contender, or at least a club in a large market with lots of discretionary dollars available. I would expect Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Toronto, and perhaps Atlanta to be potential destinations. I'd also expect the Blues to get a "Jagr-type" deal for Katy -- picks and prospects. Certainly nothing of comparable present value.

Demitra is, IMO, the most likely of the big-money guys to be traded. He's still a (relative) bargain at $6.5 million, and one of the Eastern contenders/large-market teams listed above may be interested.

I'm of two minds, however, on Demitra. If he were qualified at $6.5 million, he'd be a little hard to deal (not impossible, however). If, on the other hand, the Blues opted not to qualify him, I think he and his agent would be hard-pressed to find a team that would give him $6.5 million as a free agent. That leaves the door open for the Blues to re-sign him at a lower yearly salary.

I think, if I were LP, I'd inquire discretely about teams that might be interested in trading for the qualified Demitra. if there was interest ,I'd qualify him and see what happened. If no interest, I'd not qualify him, and then offer him a three-year, $13 million deal after he shopped around and found no takers at near $7 million per year.

If he did get signed elsewhere after not being qualified, the Blues would at least get a compensatory pick... especially if they're planning on lowering their team payroll.

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04-23-2004, 09:51 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrussianBlue
Pronger will probably not be traded. Pleau has indicated that the team will be built around him, and probably Backman and Jackman as well. I personally feel that's the wisest course.

I wouldn't expect Weight to be traded, either. Of all the high-dollar forwards, he's the only one who showed much of anything in the San Jose series. There's also the little matter of his having a no-trade clause...

Tkachuk also has a no-trade clause, but I'd expect that he'd waive it for a move to an Eastern Conference contender, or at least a club in a large market with lots of discretionary dollars available. I would expect Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Toronto, and perhaps Atlanta to be potential destinations. I'd also expect the Blues to get a "Jagr-type" deal for Katy -- picks and prospects. Certainly nothing of comparable present value.

Demitra is, IMO, the most likely of the big-money guys to be traded. He's still a (relative) bargain at $6.5 million, and one of the Eastern contenders/large-market teams listed above may be interested.

I'm of two minds, however, on Demitra. If he were qualified at $6.5 million, he'd be a little hard to deal (not impossible, however). If, on the other hand, the Blues opted not to qualify him, I think he and his agent would be hard-pressed to find a team that would give him $6.5 million as a free agent. That leaves the door open for the Blues to re-sign him at a lower yearly salary.

I think, if I were LP, I'd inquire discretely about teams that might be interested in trading for the qualified Demitra. if there was interest ,I'd qualify him and see what happened. If no interest, I'd not qualify him, and then offer him a three-year, $13 million deal after he shopped around and found no takers at near $7 million per year.

If he did get signed elsewhere after not being qualified, the Blues would at least get a compensatory pick... especially if they're planning on lowering their team payroll.

PrussianBlue
Hey PB,

I thought that if a team doesn't qualify a RFA, that there is no compensation if he leaves via free agency. I have read over the rules of compensatory picks, and they have a really tricky situation that deals w/ giving players points based on performance, age, and UFAs signed by the team the player leaves.

IE, because Detroit signed both Hatcher and Witney, they will not get a compensatory pick for losing Lucky Luc, and Feds pick will be lower because of their activity in the UFA market. (Tends to be difficult to figure stuff out. You think the NHL would make things easy. :mad: )

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04-23-2004, 11:15 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frenzy1
Hey PB,

I thought that if a team doesn't qualify a RFA, that there is no compensation if he leaves via free agency. I have read over the rules of compensatory picks, and they have a really tricky situation that deals w/ giving players points based on performance, age, and UFAs signed by the team the player leaves.

IE, because Detroit signed both Hatcher and Witney, they will not get a compensatory pick for losing Lucky Luc, and Feds pick will be lower because of their activity in the UFA market. (Tends to be difficult to figure stuff out. You think the NHL would make things easy. :mad: )
That's one of the areas that even I'm unsure of, and I like to think that I'm pretty knowledgeable about stuff like that.

I think that depending on the skill level or deal signed by a UFA, the team that loses the UFA gets a compensatory pick sandwiched in between the 2nd and 3rd or 3rd and 4th from that draft year (e.g. Brian Leetch was traded to Edmonton last summer for Jussi Markkanen and a 4th round pick in 2004, the Rangers sign Leetch back, and Edmonton receives a pick for "losing" him).

The compensatory pick is "created" rather than "transferred" as is with RFA's; the pick is merely given to the team that lost the UFA by the NHL and is not lost by the team that signed him.

Of course, with a new CBA on the horizon, who knows what the crap is going to change with that.

Just when I was getting a handle on everything too.

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04-23-2004, 11:37 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by King of Stankonia
That's one of the areas that even I'm unsure of, and I like to think that I'm pretty knowledgeable about stuff like that.

I think that depending on the skill level or deal signed by a UFA, the team that loses the UFA gets a compensatory pick sandwiched in between the 2nd and 3rd or 3rd and 4th from that draft year (e.g. Brian Leetch was traded to Edmonton last summer for Jussi Markkanen and a 4th round pick in 2004, the Rangers sign Leetch back, and Edmonton receives a pick for "losing" him).

The compensatory pick is "created" rather than "transferred" as is with RFA's; the pick is merely given to the team that lost the UFA by the NHL and is not lost by the team that signed him.

Of course, with a new CBA on the horizon, who knows what the crap is going to change with that.

Just when I was getting a handle on everything too.
Here is a link to the current CBA. http://www.letsgopens.com/nhl_cba.php

Exhibit 15 deals w/ the compenatory pick issue and reads as follows:

National Hockey League Collective Bargaining Agreement


Exhibit 15
Compensatory Draft System


1. A Compensatory Free Agent ("CFA") is defined as a Group III
unrestricted free agent who signed a contract with a New Club.
Clubs that suffer a "net loss" (as described below) shall be
eligible to be awarded a Compensatory Draft Selection in the
subsequent Entry Draft in accordance with the provisions of
Paragraph 3 below.

2. The following calculation, calculated as of June 30 each
year, based on a player's (i) "average annual compensation" and
(ii) honors, shall be used to determine a CFA's ranking on a
percentile basis as against all other players on Club rosters at
the conclusion of a regular season:

(a) All CFAs and other League players on rosters at the
conclusion of a regular season shall be ranked in ascending order
by their "average annual compensation," which shall be determined
by dividing a player's Compensation (for all contract years) by
the number of contract years. (Thus, the player with the lowest
average annual Compensation shall be ranked first, etc.) Each
player shall receive 1/100th of a point per dollar of his
"average annual compensation." Rankings and calculations for
CFAs shall be based on the CFA's new contract and shall be
determined as of the first day of the regular season.

(b) At the end of each year, the League shall assign to all
such players additional points based on honors in the prior three
Seasons, as follows:

(1) Twenty (20) points for being selected First Team
NHL All-Star by the PHWA.

(2) Ten (10) points for being selected Second Team NHL
All-Star by the PHWA, [or for being awarded by the Lady Byng or
Masterton Trophies.]

(3) Thirty (30) points for being awarded the Hart,
Norris, Ross, Vezina, Selke, or Conn Smythe Trophies.

(4) Ten (10) points for being selected Captain.

(5) Twenty (20) points for winning the Stanley Cup.

(6) Twenty (20) points if the player is 32 on June 30;
fifteen (15) points if the player is 33 on June 30; ten (10)
points if the player is 34 on June 30.

(c) The sum of the numerical values in (a) and (b) above
shall represent each player's final numerical value.

(d) The players shall then be re-ranked based upon such
final numerical values.

(e) Each CFA's final numerical value shall be measured in
percentile terms against all players' (including the CFA's)
numerical values to determine the position, if any, of a Club's
Compensatory Draft Selection.

3. (a) A Club shall qualify to be eligible for a Compensatory
Draft Selection if:

(i) it has lost a CFA and not gained a
corresponding CFA in an equal or higher percentile bracket (based
on subsection (c) below); and

(ii) the Club has suffered a "net loss" of
CFAs when the numerical value of all CFA's gained is deducted
from the numerical value of all CFA's lost;

(b) The CFA's for which a Club did not receive a
corresponding CFA gain per subsection 3(a)(i) above shall then be
ranked according to their numerical value. Then in descending
order based upon a CFA's numerical value, each Club shall be
awarded a Compensatory Draft Selection based upon its CFA, up to
a maximum of two per Club. This procedure shall continue until
the available Compensatory Draft Selections are exhausted.

(c) The position of a Compensatory Draft Selection shall be
determined by a CFAs percentile ranking pursuant to 2(d) above
and the following provisions:

(1) Clubs that lost a CFA within the top 5% of all
League players shall receive a Compensatory Draft Selection no
earlier than the 11th selection in the second round of the
Entry Draft.

(2) Clubs that lost a CFA below the top 5% of all
League Players but within the top 10% shall receive a
Compensatory Draft Selection following the 52nd selection in the
Entry Draft.

(3) Clubs that lost a CFA below the top 10% of all
League Players but within the top 15% shall receive a
Compensatory Draft Selection following the 78th selection in the
Entry Draft.

(4) Clubs that lost a CFA below the top 15% of all
League Players but within the top 25% shall receive a
Compensatory Draft Selection following the 104th selection in the
Entry Draft.

(5) Clubs that lost a CFA below the top 25% of all
League Players but within the top 50% shall receive a
Compensatory Draft Selection following the 130th selection in the
Entry Draft.

(6) Clubs that lost a CFA below the top 50% of all
League Players but within the top 75% shall receive a
Compensatory Draft Selection following the 156th selection in the
Entry Draft.

(7) Clubs that lost a CFA below the top 75% of all
League Players shall receive a Compensatory Draft Selection
following the 234th selection in the Entry Draft.

(8) The exact slot, subject to the above guidelines
and availability of Compensatory Draft Selections, shall be
determined by the Commissioner prior to the Entry Draft


Leave it to the NHL to have some kind of jacked up system that noone can figure out but themselves.

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04-23-2004, 03:19 PM
  #39
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Tkachuk's salary drops to 5 million for the 05-06 season

just thought I'd throw that out there, if there's one thing pleau has done well, it's making the contracts CBA friendly.

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05-19-2004, 02:55 PM
  #40
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I voted for Lukas Kasper. I haven't seen any but the top 10 potential picks this year on video taped games so haven't seen him or many of the guys on the list except Olesz who is going top 10 so unless we trade Demitra and Salvador for a a top 10 pick we're looking at mid first again this year.
The more I think about it the more I'd like to see what Demitra can fetch on draft day. Although this draft isn't that great the idea of getting a top 10 pick is intriguing. Especially if we can keep our other first rounder as well. Sweet.

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05-20-2004, 12:12 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrussianBlue
Right here on the 'Net, mostly... hey, I live in Rockford, so I'm fully aware of the difficulties that hockey fans face in most of Illinois when it comes to getting hockey info from the traditional media.

What I do is go to the league home pages and download the stats at the end of each month, and then track how players are doing based on the changes from month to month in their stats.

For example, there's a goalie in the Quebec league, Gabriel Bouthillette, 6-04, 200 pounds. He was ranked 15th in North America by CSB at mid-term, but by comparing statistical progressions, I've been able to determine that he's gone 12-0-1 in his last 16 starts (since Halloween), with a 1.81 GAA and a .924 save percentage in that time frame.

When the mid-term rankings came out in January, he was 8-1-3 in 14 games, with a 2.58 GAA and an .895 save percentage; not all that impressive, which is why he was ranked in the middle of the pack.

As of last week, he was 17-1-3 in 24 games, with a 2.13 GAA and a .911 save percentage.

Until I did that statistical progress comparison, I wouldn't have given Bouthillette a second look. But, since I don't get the chance to see these guys play (I really miss living in Portland and being able to watch the major junior players first-hand), I can make a pretty good inference on his progression from the statistical comparison. When I find a guy like that who piques my interest, I search the team's web site for info about him; links to news articles, etc.

He's the backup in Gatineau, but that size and those numbers lead me to believe that he might be worth a mid-round pick... if someone else doesn't get to him first.

It takes some work, but scouting on-line can be fun. I've "found" a few guys that way, who ended up being NHL players. I remember the year Cajanek was drafted, I told a bunch of my friends that he would be a good addition for the Blues. They all thought I was nuts, and so was Pleau for "wasting" a pick on a 25-year-old who didn't even want to come to North America right away. Cajanek has since turned out to be a pretty good find for the Blues; not bad for the 253rd overall pick.

PrussianBlue
Other than the first few tenders I think you can throw a blanket over the rest. The key is they need a place to play and that can be done through picking kids that are going to the NCAA or are well placed in Europe. I like the progression you see in Bouthillette as it could provide a key to him moving forward but the team dominates so tough games to judge with are few and far between for him. If you are looking at projects, put the mid round picks into kids that show something and will have the opportunity to develop. Lots of goaltenders in the middle to the end of CSB that fit that bill. I see the first 8 or so going according pretty much according to the rankings and then it will slide all over the map drafting kids that have piqued interest for a number of reasons including financial considerations. JMHO

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05-23-2004, 10:47 PM
  #42
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How many of these guys can we reasonably expect to be around at 17?

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05-23-2004, 10:55 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuSa_1
How many of these guys can we reasonably expect to be around at 17?
Not many of the guys listed above... that's why I started a second "Entry Draft" thread some time ago.

People keep posting to this one for some reason; I guess I should take it down.

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