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Lupul's True Value?

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Old
05-05-2009, 02:58 AM
  #51
Giroux tha Damaja
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCannon View Post
I heard the Wild have a robust bag of pucks holding out on contract negotiations (RFA), lets do this trade up, here in Philly the pucks could definitely go well with Carter during practices
We could do this deal, but we need to get some goalies under contract first. Otherwise I don't see us signing anyone to play nets.

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Old
05-05-2009, 04:15 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mo0sE View Post
lupul's lazy ass and awesome contract could probably get us a bucket of pucks...and maybe a pack of juicy fruit..
Did you not read the original post. Lupul is on par with what other players of his caliber are making. And for the most part, I would much rather have Lupul than some of the other guys on that list as he has the ability to be a big difference maker when it counts...it didn't happen this year, but remember game 7 vs. the Caps last season? Also, he has singlehandedly won play-off games for the Ducks in recent history. A regulation hat trick and OT winner in one game...that's pretty damn good.

He has tremendous upside if paired with the right line mates...I also suggested a Gagne-Richards-Lupul line in the previous thread and feel they would be able to pick apart teams at will.

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Old
05-14-2009, 01:53 PM
  #53
Acekicker123
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No not really.

First, start by eliminating the players on entry level contracts (which you made many mistakes on btw)

That leaves you with:

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
74 GP - 56 P : $4.75m - 3 more years

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
76 GP - 55 P : $1.75m - 1 more year

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
82 GP - 54 P : $2.50m - 2 more years

Tuomo Ruutu (26yo - CAR - LW)
79 GP - 54 P : $2.25m - RFA

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
74 GP - 53 P : $4.00m - 2 more years

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
80 GP - 53 P : $3.18m - 5 more years

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
82 GP - 53 P : $3.73m - 3 more years

Brooks Laich (25yo - WSH - C)
82 GP - 53 P : $2.07 - 2 more years

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
71 GP - 52 P : $1.60m - RFA

Alex Burrows (28yo - VAN - RW)
82 GP - 51 P : $2.00m - 4 more years

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
79 GP - 50 P : $4.25m - 4 more years

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
71 GP - 50 P : $4.50m - 6 more years

Jordan Staal (20yo - PIT - C)
82 GP - 49 P : $4.00m - 4 more years

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
80 GP - 47 P : $2.20m - UFA

Tim Connolly (27yo - BUF - C)
48 GP - 47 P : $4.50m - 2 more years

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
82 GP - 46 P : $3.75m - 3 more years

Steve Ott (26yo - DAL - C)
64 GP - 46 P : $1.43 - 1 more year

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
71 GP - 46 P : $4.08m - 4 more years

Connolly strikes you immediately as someone who does not belong on this list. Either because of his irregular string of injuries or very high PPG rate as compared to the rest of the players on this list, he does not serve as a good comparable.

Next, you take out the players whose main contribution, unlike Lupul, is not to put up points. So we're talking about players with great PK ability, two-way ability, pest roles, etc. Those would be Ruutu, Laich, Burrows, Staal, and Ott.

That now leaves us with the more-or-less offensive players. Now instead of conviniently taking into account only a down year, let's take their 3 year averages, take their salary, and then rank them by an efficiency ratio using points per game / $1 million.

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
$1.60m - RFA
3 year average: 0.65 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.65 / 1.60 = 0.408

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
$1.75m - 1 more year
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.30 / 1.75 = 0.302

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
$2.20m - UFA
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 2.20 = 0.260

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
$2.50m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.53 / 2.50 = 0.212

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
$3.18m - 5 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.18 = 0.209

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
$3.73m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.73 = 0.178

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
$4.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.84 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.84 / 4.75 = 0.178

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
$4.08m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.71 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.71 / 4.08 = 0.174

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
$4.50m - 6 more years
3 year average: 0.76 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.76 / 4.50 = 0.170

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
$4.00m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.63 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.63 / 4.00 = 0.157

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
$3.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.52 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.52 / 3.75 = 0.140

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
$4.25m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 4.25 = 0.135

Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:05 PM
  #54
Opus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.
Yes, but this old news.

Most of us are well aware.

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:16 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post

Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.

Simply put, you have WAY too much time on your hands.

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:22 PM
  #56
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He also forgot to include other things:

Most notably: some of the players on that last, most notably Lupul and Staal haven't played a game yet with their new values so at his old price Lupul's hit is much better. We will have to see what happens next season to determine his true value in accordance with that list.

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:26 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
He also forgot to include other things:

Most notably: some of the players on that last, most notably Lupul and Staal haven't played a game yet with their new values so at his old price Lupul's hit is much better. We will have to see what happens next season to determine his true value in accordance with that list.
Yeah, cuz I'm sure now that Lupul has been paid, he will quit his lazy ways and play harder and with renewed vigor.


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Old
05-14-2009, 03:00 PM
  #58
Larry44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawkins121 View Post
I wasn't a big fan of Carter and Lupul on the same line but for some reason Hartnell-Carter-Lupul worked really well. If Lupul isn't traded, I don't really see the need to break them up unless they are struggling for a long stretch.

Kinda a moot point though, I think the chances of having all of Gagne, Richards, Knuble, Hartnell, Carter, Lupul, Briere, and Giroux going into the season are slim to none. Even if we keep Lupul and just don't re-sign Knuble, it's not like we can plug Briere or Giroux into the right wing spot and and abandon the other one to a line of Asham and Powe or something. It would be a waste of talent. Who knows what the lines would be.
For a large portion of this year, the 19-17-15 line was one of the best, most dangerous lines in the league. Even against the Pens, they created a lot of pressure and generated chances - even with Carter playing hurt.

Lupul has value as a young player with a gift for goalscoring. He hits and forechecks more than he gets credit for too, IMHO.

If he was more intense, it would be better. He should be a 35 goal scorer and maybe playing with Richards and Gagne would be a better fit - leaving Giroux with Carter and Hartnell?

A lot of whether the Flyers deal or keep Lupul for next year will depend on whether Homer can find a way to get out from under Briere's salary. If they can deal Danny, a lot of the cap pressure is off - and it's possible Knuble could be brought back. If they keep Briere, he'll need to say on the third line with Giroux and Carcillo (liked that line in the POs) and they'll have to move Nodl or JVR onto Carter's line (Hartnell is actually better at RW so position is not an issue.

I like Lupul and would happily keep him - but there will certainly be a lot of teams who would happily put him on their first or second line, get 30 goals out of him, and be very happy about it.

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Old
05-14-2009, 04:07 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
I like Lupul and would happily keep him - but there will certainly be a lot of teams who would happily put him on their first or second line, get 30 goals out of him, and be very happy about it.
I agree. I love Lupul. I know he disappears at times, but I think he can grow out of it in much the way Carter has. Their scenarios are obviously different, but I really don't want to give up on Lupul just yet.

If we can move Briere before Lupul I say do it in a heartbeat, but the problem of course is moving Briere. That's why Lupul has become so expendable.

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Old
05-14-2009, 05:14 PM
  #60
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BehindtheNet has Lupul's quality of teammates rated 31st among all forwards in the league.

He's ranked 125th among all forwards in points per 60 minutes of ice time. (2.05)

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Old
05-14-2009, 05:38 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
I like Lupul and would happily keep him - but there will certainly be a lot of teams who would happily put him on their first or second line, get 30 goals out of him, and be very happy about it.
I agree. I really want the kid to be good and start performing to expectations. I'd like to keep him, but...eh...He really does have talent. Sadly, he is overpaid, and i can see him getting moved. But oh well, life goes on.

I think being on a team with Richards, Giroux, Carter, everyone expects him to fit this mold of the young guns who can do everything and are rushing him a tad. Yet when you're making his type of money, you deserve rushed expectations.

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Old
05-15-2009, 09:49 AM
  #62
Larry44
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Originally Posted by CavemanLawyer View Post
I agree. I really want the kid to be good and start performing to expectations. I'd like to keep him, but...eh...He really does have talent. Sadly, he is overpaid, and i can see him getting moved. But oh well, life goes on.
The kind of talent Lupul has is what wins for you in the long run, which I why I'd rather keep him and let Knuble go, if that is the tradeoff.

Let's face it, if the Flyers are ever going to be able to beat the Pens, it will take a big team effort as Carter and Richards are only ever going to be able to do so much to contain Crosby and Malkin - someone else is going to have to score...

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Old
05-15-2009, 09:40 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FireStevensDotCom View Post
I brought this up back in February or so.
Lupul for Harding just makes to much sense. Especially with Gaborik more then likely on the outs in Minnesota. Minnesota may not want to give Harding a raise to be a backup goalie.
Make it happen Holmer.
Gaborik won't be going anywhere. Now that Lemaire and Risebrough are gone, it's clear Leipold is going to hire someone who won't have any beefs with Gaborik. When Risebrough got canned, word was during exit interviews, he was telling everyone that Gaborik lost the power struggle with him and Gaborik was as good as gone. Anyways, the new GMs first line of duty in Minny will be to repair the relationship with Gaborik and hire a coach that will use an offensive system that Gaborik wants them to use.

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Old
05-15-2009, 09:46 PM
  #64
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Contracts are for future performance, not past performance. Lupul's PPG will go up over the next four years, the question is will it be to .62 or .75?

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Old
05-15-2009, 10:22 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Opus View Post
Sure Lupul puts up points, but he's a player that pulls the disappearing too much.

Also, when he's not scoring, he's not doing much else. There in lies the problem.

Like TKP said, he's movable, but we'll likely have to add a little incentive to the deal should he be dealt and obviously for what the return is.
i think some of that has to do with playing on carter's wing...too many times it is carter leaving a vapor trail with hartnell and lupul trying to catch up, then carter let's off a wrister that either scores, is gloved, or there is a rebound with no near the net for a rebound...there is very little puck possession in the offensive end.


if you look at the previous season when lupul played mostly w/ richards lupul was leading the team in hits...probably because richards usually carries the puck patiently allowing his forwards to get in to the zone with him.

i wouldn't mind seeing richards center hartnell and lupul next season then have carter center gagne and giroux/briere...gagne, briere, and giroux are all better skaters then lupul and hartnell (not that they're bad) plau all three are able to create their own scoring opportunities...hartnell - richards - lupul could be a tough line top play against other top lines.

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