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Who is the most likely to trade their pick in the top 10?

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Old
05-09-2009, 04:23 PM
  #26
NuxFan09
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I think Toronto will trade up to get Atlanta's or LA's pick to ensure they get Brayden Schenn.

I suspect Minny may trade up for a top 10 pick to ensure they get Jordan Schroeder.

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05-09-2009, 04:30 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
I agree, If Burke can't move up to grab Duchene or Tavares look for him too trade down (say 11th or 12th) and draft Ryan Ellis or Jordan Schroeder.

He's been scouting those guys a lot as of late.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see LA trade that pick for a #1 Centerman

Maybe a package deal with Boston for Marc Savard?
Since when does Burke draft or trade for small players?

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05-09-2009, 05:05 PM
  #28
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Guessing these things is a total crapshoot, not least because every choice impacts on everybody else, and you don't have to go far down the list before the cumulative imponderables have reached levels where everything is almost entirely speculative. In addition to which it really comes down to how each team evaluates each of the available prospects against their needs, about which we know pretty much squat.

It's hard to see the Islanders trading the 1st pick, but it's not out of the question that they could draft Hedman. If so, what does Tampa do? Take Tavares? Trade the pick for a couple of stud young defensemen? Draft Tavares and trade Lecavalier for same, or for more picks? The impact of drafting Tavares on Lecavalier's future might be the most inriguing part of that scenario. Not that Tavares is likely to adequately replace Lecavalier next year, but within another year or two, he might. And if the Bolts have to deal with Stamkos' and Tavares' second contracts while Lecavalier's is still in force, with a no-trade clause, they're in trouble. Same thing with Hedman of course, but it's one thing to blow that cash on your best defenseman and two best forwards, another to blow it on three forwards.

Duchene to Colorado at third, it's hard to see anything plausible to get in the way of that.

Atlanta at fourth - you'd think they would prefer blueline help, but are they high enough on Cowen to take him that high? How much do they like Kane and MPS? Kane would be a pretty good fit, style-wise, with Bogosian and Kovalchuk. There are lots of good defensemen available further down, if the right asset comes their way they might look in that direction. Takers? Minnesota for instance sure could use a top forward prospect, if they expect to lose Gaborik. So could Nashville or Florida, and they both have assets that could be of interest to the Thrashers.

The Kings - they need immediate help, but you could have said the same thing last year or the year before that. They've assembled an awesome blueline core, but do they have the core for future dominance up front? I think not, and I have a hard time seeing Lombardi pass up the chance to take a top forward, which he will get at 5th whether it's Kane, MPS or Schenn. For that matter, if anyone's in a position to make a run at trading up for Tavares, it's the Kings. They could offer not just a high pick, they could also afford to lose f.e. Jack Johnson and a blue-chip D prospect and still have maybe the best group of young defensemen in the league.

Everyone assumes Phoenix will draft a defenseman, and there's a strong case for it, with 3 consecutive selections of forwards in the top 10. But as has been pointed out, they are not actually very weak in that department - Goncharov is a top prospect, and there are other good ones as well. Still, Cowen does seem a logical choice - except we don't know how they view him, or his health. I doubt they will trade down - a high pick is the best asset for a team with the kind of financial trouble and insecurity they have right now. Won't add to their payroll unless they choose it, and will almost certainly retain a high value for the next 2-3 years.

Toronto gets whatever is left from the top 7 group, which seems pretty clear-cut. I don' think it's easy to see that the assets are there to make moving up a good option, and they will get a good player, no matter who remains. In short - drafting 7th seems to me to be the obvious best option for Burke.

Then it gets more unpredictable, because when you are out of the top 7 there is in my opinion a fairly large group of players that could be in almost any order for any individual team - Schroeder, Kadri, Kulikov, Ekman-Larsson, Holland, Glennie, Ellis, Josefson. Most probably I should think most teams would be happy with most or several of these. From here on, it seems almost entirely speculative which player any given team might prefer.

I would think the Stars and Senators would be fairly unlikely to trade their picks - they don't often have high selections, they do have pretty good rosters even though they underachieved this year and they need the talent influx from their own system, given their cap situation.

Edmonton, that's a different story - you can sort of see the circumstances pointing in that direction there. On the other hand, the frantic attempts at accelerated retooling they've made during the past two off-seasons haven't really gotten them very far.

cheers


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Old
05-09-2009, 09:27 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
I agree, If Burke can't move up to grab Duchene or Tavares look for him too trade down (say 11th or 12th) and draft Ryan Ellis or Jordan Schroeder.

He's been scouting those guys a lot as of late.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see LA trade that pick for a #1 Centerman

Maybe a package deal with Boston for Marc Savard?
Does Anze Kopitar ring a bell?

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05-09-2009, 09:29 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by NuxFan09 View Post
I think Toronto will trade up to get Atlanta's or LA's pick to ensure they get Brayden Schenn.

I suspect Minny may trade up for a top 10 pick to ensure they get Jordan Schroeder.
I see an Edmonton-Minnesota deal on draft day. The Wild will move up a couple of spots to draft Schroeder and I think Lowe may have his eye on Kassian.

I don't see Schroeder going anywhere in the top 9.

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05-10-2009, 02:38 AM
  #31
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Lowe is no longer GM of the Oilers. But anyway, why do you think so, particularly? The Wild don't have much of a history drafting either Minnesotans or the type of forward Schroeder is. Kassian isn't exactly an Oilers kind of player, and 12th is way higher than he should go.

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05-10-2009, 02:53 AM
  #32
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Does Anze Kopitar ring a bell?
No offense to Kopitar, because obviously he has great potential, but he definitely isn't a #1 center right now. Maybe in the future, but not now.

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05-10-2009, 03:18 AM
  #33
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No offense to Kopitar, because obviously he has great potential, but he definitely isn't a #1 center right now. Maybe in the future, but not now.
Well...... he was top 25 for scoring for Centers (23 I think) and there are 30 teams in the league....so I think he is a number one center. That being said he was certainly no all-star last year but he was learning a new defensive system which not only effected him but the whole team.

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05-10-2009, 04:21 AM
  #34
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If the Kings have a legitimate top-line player, it's Kopitar.

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05-10-2009, 04:30 AM
  #35
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The 8,9,10 teams have serious issues... whether they keep the pick and choose a different route - who knows.

One thing is for certain is that available vet top-4 D-men are RARE this offseaspn. After JayBo is a seriously drop off to expensive/mediocre UFA D-men.

Kaberle/Kubina/Hamhuis could be available for that 8th/9th/10th pick.

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05-10-2009, 04:33 AM
  #36
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Kopitar was invisible for stretches in the beginning of this season. I liked what I saw the 2nd half of the season. If Kopitar is not a #1 center than many teams dont have one. There's certainly room for debate though...but the words "definitely not" does not fit IMO. 208 points in 236 games at the age of 21.

This season is probably the first time that I dont mind if the Kings trade their nr.1 pick. Yet, everything depends on the return. I'm not sold on this draft year.

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Old
05-10-2009, 03:34 PM
  #37
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I'm not sold on this draft year.
I'm not so sure either. When I compare top 5 players like Kane or MPS or Cowen to the top 6 last year, 08 seems stronger. And that is even more the case with Wilson/Hodgson/Bødker compared to the lower top 10 this year (Kadri, Kulikov etc.). On the other hand, there are pretty good players well into the twenties.

It's tough to judge. But it doesn't look as strong as 2008, that's for sure. Perhaps somewhere between 2006 and 2007, with more depth than either but not as much top-end quality outside the top 3 as 2006 has proven to have.

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05-10-2009, 04:33 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Frolov 6'3 View Post
I'm not sold on this draft year.
The top-15 looks better than last year.

It's all optics... I love Doughty, but I recall him looking poor playing against a draft class above him.

The fact that Jordan Schroeder could go 10th or 12th amazes me. Over a PPG in the NCAA as a 17-year old and destroying competition at the last WJC.

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05-11-2009, 08:08 AM
  #39
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The top-15 looks better than last year.

It's all optics... I love Doughty, but I recall him looking poor playing against a draft class above him.

The fact that Jordan Schroeder could go 10th or 12th amazes me. Over a PPG in the NCAA as a 17-year old and destroying competition at the last WJC.
I dont know voxel.....but because YOU think the top 15 looks better than last year, it must be true?

Schroeder 17 year's old btw ? He's 18 and 5'9''....

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05-11-2009, 08:26 AM
  #40
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Atlanta at fourth - you'd think they would prefer blueline help, but are they high enough on Cowen to take him that high? How much do they like Kane and MPS? Kane would be a pretty good fit, style-wise, with Bogosian and Kovalchuk. There are lots of good defensemen available further down, if the right asset comes their way they might look in that direction. Takers? Minnesota for instance sure could use a top forward prospect, if they expect to lose Gaborik. So could Nashville or Florida, and they both have assets that could be of interest to the Thrashers.
The Thrashers have a very young blueline, and plenty of D prospects in their system. They need to get more Top 6 F talent in their system, and it would be a huge surprise if they went D with their 1st rounder this year.

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05-11-2009, 01:18 PM
  #41
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What good D-men do they have in their system? This year's THN FW lists three D-men in their top 10, none of them ranked higher than 7th. If you prefer the HF top 20, none of those three make the top 10 at all there. It does however have Zubarev at 9th.

Either way, both indicate the blueline as the obvious weak area in Atlanta's system, and the one most in need of a refill. They have better prospects, and more of them, up front.

As for the big club, there is of course Bogosian. Then there's Valabik, who is hardly much more than a fairly marginal NHL prospect. And that's it - everybody else is either 25 or older, or played only a handful of games.

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05-11-2009, 01:41 PM
  #42
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What good D-men do they have in their system? This year's THN FW lists three D-men in their top 10, none of them ranked higher than 7th. If you prefer the HF top 20, none of those three make the top 10 at all there. It does however have Zubarev at 9th.

Either way, both indicate the blueline as the obvious weak area in Atlanta's system, and the one most in need of a refill. They have better prospects, and more of them, up front.

As for the big club, there is of course Bogosian. Then there's Valabik, who is hardly much more than a fairly marginal NHL prospect. And that's it - everybody else is either 25 or older, or played only a handful of games.

cheers
Enstrom, Bogosian, Valabik(when you spend a full season up in the NHL, I think you go beyond being a prospect), Salmela who I think is around 25, Hainsey and Exleby who are the greybeards of the corps at 28. It is a very young blueline.

When you look at who they have in the system: Oystrick(UFA), Lewis, Kulda, Wilson, Skinner. Paul Postma graduates this year to the AHL, and I think Zach Redmond might have graduated from Ferris State. Along with the aforementioned Zubarev.

Now granted, not many bluechippers in the system as of right now, but with Enstrom and Bogosian both looking like potential top pairing D and Hainsey signed for the next 4 years. Do you really need to address that with your first rounder?

Their best F prospects are 2nd/3rd line tweeners like Machacek, Holzapfel. You have Top 6 F guys in Esposito, Lavellie, and perhaps Alberts out of Ohio State, but nothing that screams top line F potential. Outside of Bryan Little, under 25 Top 6 F potential is a big weakness for the org. It will get addressed this summer at the Draft.

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05-11-2009, 02:12 PM
  #43
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Enstrom, Bogosian, Valabik(when you spend a full season up in the NHL, I think you go beyond being a prospect), Salmela who I think is around 25, Hainsey and Exleby who are the greybeards of the corps at 28. It is a very young blueline.

When you look at who they have in the system: Oystrick(UFA), Lewis, Kulda, Wilson, Skinner. Paul Postma graduates this year to the AHL, and I think Zach Redmond might have graduated from Ferris State. Along with the aforementioned Zubarev.

Now granted, not many bluechippers in the system as of right now, but with Enstrom and Bogosian both looking like potential top pairing D and Hainsey signed for the next 4 years. Do you really need to address that with your first rounder?

Their best F prospects are 2nd/3rd line tweeners like Machacek, Holzapfel. You have Top 6 F guys in Esposito, Lavellie, and perhaps Alberts out of Ohio State, but nothing that screams top line F potential. Outside of Bryan Little, under 25 Top 6 F potential is a big weakness for the org. It will get addressed this summer at the Draft.
Well, every one of these except Bogosian and Valabik are at least seven years older than anybody they're going to draft in this year. It may be a young blueline in terms of average age, but it is not a blueline who who contains any young player of note apart from Bogosian. It is also a system who does not contain a single young defenseman apart from Bogosian with a reasonable likelihood of becoming more than a marginal player at the NHL level. And anyway it is all relative - they have more prospects who are forwards, and they are more highly rated. Hence, it seems pretty obvious to me that as far as youth goes, D is clearly their weak area.

That being said, I agree with you that this is not necessarily something that has to be addressed with a high 1RP. Firstly because a high 1RP is usually more about BPA and less about positional needs than lower picks are. Secondly because, as you point out, it's not as if they don't need top-end help up front, both in their NHL squad and in the organisation generally. Thirdly because their current best young player is a defenseman.

So, I think it is certainly possible that they will go for the forward, and rather address their blueline needs through lower picks, at least this year. The players available to them at 4th points in that direction as well. Again, unless they like Cowen as much as they like Kane or MPS.

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05-11-2009, 02:21 PM
  #44
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I

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.

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Wow with this many "cheers" in one thread, you should buy everyone shots!

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05-11-2009, 02:29 PM
  #45
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Lowe is no longer GM of the Oilers. But anyway, why do you think so, particularly? The Wild don't have much of a history drafting either Minnesotans or the type of forward Schroeder is. Kassian isn't exactly an Oilers kind of player, and 12th is way higher than he should go.

cheers
I don't necessarily see an Edmonton Minnesota swap, unless Edmonton then down again, but one of the reporters (Jim Matheson) here in Edmonton have already identified Kassian as a player of interest for Edmonton.

Matheson is very plugged in to the team and is not from the Garrioch school of reporting. If he provides a name, it's because the name was given to him.

I would suspect that the Oilers preference will be to to try and trade up, which they have never been able to do, but when that fails I think it's reasonable to see them drop back a few spots to where they will feel that Kassian will still be available.

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05-11-2009, 02:41 PM
  #46
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Wow with this many "cheers" in one thread, you should buy everyone shots!
That's right. And I'm going to continue doing so. Maybe it's different in Canada, but over here that's the kind of thing you'd automatically say to the shopkeeper as you're leaving the shop. You know, a common colloquial greeting of no particular meaning except general good will. And you're none of you getting any bloody drinks off me, I can tell you that much.

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05-11-2009, 02:49 PM
  #47
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Tampa is so weak at D, and overall have a thin talent squad.

They could package #2 for quality D and/or serviceable NHL players, since they have few. I seriously doubt they want to be 29th or 30th next year...

I think they will be ripe for trades.
They're young at D, sure, but not really weak (when healthy). They want the giant swede, though.

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05-11-2009, 02:51 PM
  #48
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I don't necessarily see an Edmonton Minnesota swap, unless Edmonton then down again, but one of the reporters (Jim Matheson) here in Edmonton have already identified Kassian as a player of interest for Edmonton.

Matheson is very plugged in to the team and is not from the Garrioch school of reporting. If he provides a name, it's because the name was given to him.

I would suspect that the Oilers preference will be to to try and trade up, which they have never been able to do, but when that fails I think it's reasonable to see them drop back a few spots to where they will feel that Kassian will still be available.
Hm, that's an interesting piece of information, thanks. They didn't learn their lesson with Joe Hulbig and Alex Plante then? No, just kidding. They should have some scope for trading down in that case. Especially if they're interested in doing that as part of a wider set of deals or to help them restructure.

cheers

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05-11-2009, 05:48 PM
  #49
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to Atlanta: Rights to Radulov, NSh 1st rounder
to Nash: Atlanta 4th overall

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05-11-2009, 06:04 PM
  #50
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to Atlanta: Rights to Radulov, NSh 1st rounder
to Nash: Atlanta 4th overall
Oh yeah, if I were Atlanta, I'd love to move down 7 spots for a player that doesn't play in the NHL.

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