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Old
05-14-2009, 02:39 PM
  #51
DougGilmour93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
NO HE DOESN'T. There cleared THAT up for you. Just like you are wrong about Antropov you are wrong about Kubina. Kubina IS more valuable than Antorpov but not THAT much more. Our first is going to be either 21st, 20th or 19th, we'll find out tonight. That should get you a player like Mike Richards. Kubina has never and will never be worth anywhere close to a Mike Richards type player (even as just a prospect) even in your wildest dreams. If you think that Kubina is worth our 1st straight up then Briere is worth YOUR first this year.

I never said he was worth your 1st round pick straight up. That was never my arguement. If the deal was one asset for one asset i'd assume Kubina could fetch a late 1st in the 25-30 range.

For your 1st round pick (20th let's say) Kubina would be worth it if you wanted to dump some poopy a$$ contracts our way. See Lupul and Jones..

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:41 PM
  #52
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I am tired of every proposal involving toronto cleaning the other team and underating their players. 1 watch what burke gets for kubina this summer during his window of opportunity and 2 look at reality asde from schenn toronto has nobody, zero prospects zero leverage for trades so look at any deal involving kubina or kaberla as an opportunity to move salary and continue the rebuild.

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:49 PM
  #53
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As a Maple Leaf fan I hope that Burke signs Kubina to an extension and keeps Kaberle, getting fed up with this 'every prospect is gold' mentality. As if an extra late first rounder is likely going to change the fate of a franchise. If the Leafs keep their own picks and draft well isn't that enough slowly rebuild themselves?

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:49 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
Gagne (5.25) - Richards (5.75) - Briere (6.50)
Hartnell (4.20) - Carter (5.00) - Ponikarovsky (2.11)
Tlusty (0.89) - Giroux (0.82) - Nodl (0.85)
Carcillo (0.89) - Powe (0.52) - Asham (0.64)
Cote (0.55)

Timonen (6.33) - Parent (0.86)
Kaberle (4.25) - Coburn (1.30)
Sbisa (0.88) - FA (3.00)

Harding (2.50)
Emery (1.50)

That's 54.59m spent and Marshall is allowed to progress a year defensively in the AHL.

And of course that would likely be the set up if the Flyers made the following deals:

To TOR:
JVR, Carle, 1st

To PHI:
Kaberle, Tlsuty, Ponikarovsky, 2nd

----------------------------------------

To MIN:
Lupul, 3rd

To PHI:
Harding's rights

---------------------------------------

To THE HOCKEY GRAVEYARD:
Jones

To PHI:
Freedom

--------------------------------------

Sign: Emery (1yr @ 1.5m)
Sign: FA Defenseman (2yr @ 3.00m)

That of course is all dependent on us using Lupul to get Harding from Minnesota or of course Halak from Montreal, or someone from Nashville's system. We can't trade him to you so I substituted Carle instead.

Likely won't work of course, but we can't use Lupul in two deals. Carle is the defensive equivilant to Lupul value wise. It really does depend on a team's needs as it always does.

I still don't know how much faith I have in Poni and Tlusty which would be the selling point for the Flyers in this deal believe it or not. Kaberle is nice, but if we're giving up Carle or Lupul the replacements have to be there offensively.

I'm not sold on the way Tlusty has progressed with the Marlies though I'm obviously no expert on them. Poni I think would be decent on Carter's wing, and wouldn't hurt the team at least defensively.

Still I'm cautious about this deal. I think we could get more from other sources than from Toronto especially if a prospect like JVR is involved.
Makes sense, I just feel that Toronto is in a position to give up more if Lupul is coming back as he can actually help us whereas we'd be looking to ship Carle elsewhere as we already have a 2nd pair. Nashville & Montreal may be looking for that 2nd pair puckmover more than a guy like Lupul.

In terms of Ponikarvosky & Tlusty; they are a couple of players the would definitely help Philly out. Poni is one of the more consistent producers and although he is rarely responsible for actually creating the play; he is an extremely reliable player with the puck in the corners, and creates a heck of a lot of space for creative guys like Carter, Briere, Richards, Gagne to make things happen. He tends to make the simple passses. He wouldn't be a guy that defenceman are afraid of, but it's very difficult to get him off the puck. He's also a reliable penalty killer and will be a defensive presence on whatever line he plays.

Tlusty was apparently one of the AHL's best players in the 2nd half of last season and was on fire offensively. He problably doesn't have the offensive skills to be a 1st line player in the NHL, but is again a solid 2-way player who is pretty balanced between goals & passing. He's not big but would be a very effective 2nd line player in the league.

In terms of the team falling apart after this season; that isn't really a big concern. You just have to trade Briere (which shouldn't be too big a loss as Tlusty & Giroux develop).

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:51 PM
  #55
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no deal on the OP.
Flyers get hosed bigtime on that offer.

Lupul and a 09 3rd for Kubina.

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Old
05-14-2009, 02:52 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
Actually I've proven Lupul is very much worth his contract:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=638865
No not really.

First, start by eliminating the players on entry level contracts (which you made many mistakes on btw)

That leaves you with:

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
74 GP - 56 P : $4.75m - 3 more years

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
76 GP - 55 P : $1.75m - 1 more year

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
82 GP - 54 P : $2.50m - 2 more years

Tuomo Ruutu (26yo - CAR - LW)
79 GP - 54 P : $2.25m - RFA

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
74 GP - 53 P : $4.00m - 2 more years

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
80 GP - 53 P : $3.18m - 5 more years

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
82 GP - 53 P : $3.73m - 3 more years

Brooks Laich (25yo - WSH - C)
82 GP - 53 P : $2.07 - 2 more years

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
71 GP - 52 P : $1.60m - RFA

Alex Burrows (28yo - VAN - RW)
82 GP - 51 P : $2.00m - 4 more years

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
79 GP - 50 P : $4.25m - 4 more years

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
71 GP - 50 P : $4.50m - 6 more years

Jordan Staal (20yo - PIT - C)
82 GP - 49 P : $4.00m - 4 more years

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
80 GP - 47 P : $2.20m - UFA

Tim Connolly (27yo - BUF - C)
48 GP - 47 P : $4.50m - 2 more years

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
82 GP - 46 P : $3.75m - 3 more years

Steve Ott (26yo - DAL - C)
64 GP - 46 P : $1.43 - 1 more year

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
71 GP - 46 P : $4.08m - 4 more years

Connolly strikes you immediately as someone who does not belong on this list. Either because of his irregular string of injuries or very high PPG rate as compared to the rest of the players on this list, he does not serve as a good comparable.

Next, you take out the players whose main contribution, unlike Lupul, is not to put up points. So we're talking about players with great PK ability, two-way ability, pest roles, etc. Those would be Ruutu, Laich, Burrows, Staal, and Ott.

That now leaves us with the more-or-less offensive players. Now instead of conviniently taking into account only a down year, let's take their 3 year averages, take their salary, and then rank them by an efficiency ratio using points per game / $1 million.

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
$1.60m - RFA
3 year average: 0.65 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.65 / 1.60 = 0.408

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
$1.75m - 1 more year
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.30 / 1.75 = 0.302

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
$2.20m - UFA
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 2.20 = 0.260

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
$2.50m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.53 / 2.50 = 0.212

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
$3.18m - 5 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.18 = 0.209

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
$3.73m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.73 = 0.178

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
$4.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.84 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.84 / 4.75 = 0.178

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
$4.08m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.71 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.71 / 4.08 = 0.174

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
$4.50m - 6 more years
3 year average: 0.76 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.76 / 4.50 = 0.170

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
$4.00m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.63 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.63 / 4.00 = 0.157

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
$3.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.52 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.52 / 3.75 = 0.140

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
$4.25m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 4.25 = 0.135

Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:03 PM
  #57
DougGilmour93
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To TOR:
JVR, Carle, 1st

To PHI:
Kaberle, Tlsuty, Ponikarovsky, 2nd


That is an incredible overpayment by the Leafs. Ludicrous even

Try this..

JVR + 1st

for

Kaberle, 3rd in 09



Carle is noting speical as of late. Isn't he playing himself off the Flyers?


Last edited by DougGilmour93: 05-14-2009 at 03:10 PM.
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Old
05-14-2009, 03:06 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
To TOR:
JVR, Carle, 1st

To PHI:
Kaberle, Tlsuty, Ponikarovsky, 2nd


That is an incredible overpayment by the Leafs. Ludicrous even

Try this..

JVR + 1st

for

Kaberle, 3rd in 09



Carle is noting speical as of late. Isn't he playing himself off the Flyers?
You're out of your mind. We're not trading JVR for Kaberle...

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:07 PM
  #59
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No, Carle was actually one of the better Flyers in the playoffs.

And you are so delusional, that I'm not even going to respond to that trade.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:11 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
NO HE DOESN'T. There cleared THAT up for you. Just like you are wrong about Antropov you are wrong about Kubina. Kubina IS more valuable than Antorpov but not THAT much more. Our first is going to be either 21st, 20th or 19th, we'll find out tonight. That should get you a player like Mike Richards. Kubina has never and will never be worth anywhere close to a Mike Richards type player (even as just a prospect) even in your wildest dreams. If you think that Kubina is worth our 1st straight up then Briere is worth YOUR first this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
????? WTF are you smoking. Have you been living in a cave for the last 6 years???? You do know that this years draft is suppose to rival the 2003 draft for both quality and quantity right??? You do know that in 2003, the last time there was a draft class this talented and this deep, that we drafted Mike Richards with the 24th pick right. You do know that Corry Perry went 28th right??? Or how about Ryan Kesler at #23??? Or even Ryan Getzlaf at #19??? If you are actually Canadian and don't know that the players available at our pck are going to have top end ability then don't know what to tell you. If YOU can't draft the right player then I don't want to hear your crying. Unless all the PROFESSIONAL scouts (you know, the guys who actually get paid to look at these kinds of things and know a ton more than guys on an internet message board) then I think it's safe to say that probably a good 5-7 of the players taken in the #19-#30 pick in this years draft with be impact players for their team.

However, it's obvious that you know more than actual professional scouts ad everyone taken after the 15th pick in every draft will never be anyhting more than a 2nd line player at best.
Wow, are you ever ignorant. Read this article: http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960

The average for a player drafted between 16-25 is an NHL regular (i.e., less than a top 9 forward or top 6 defenseman). I think you might just be putting too much stake into the comparison of this draft to that of 2003. To think that a pick ~20th overall is all but guaranteed to become as good as Richards is absolutely absurd.

I'm interested to think which of the prospects in this years draft that will be available ~20 will become as good as Richards? Please be specific.

Quote:
Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
One thing the Flyers have done well is draft forwards in the 1st round. That's why I don't trust forward prospects from other teams...Tlusty for instance.

And I think that comment was more from a lack of knowledge from the pains other teams seem to go through when drafting forwards in the first round. Sometimes we take our abilities for granted.
Perhaps you shouldn't take credit for something that you had nothing to do with? You probably shouldn't take so much pride in it either.

For the record, Tlusty has 84 points in 80 AHL games. Giroux has 36 points in 38 AHL games. Only "trusting" forward prospects that have been drafted by your own team is as close to an outright declaration of homerism as I require in order to take your opinions with a grain of salt.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:13 PM
  #61
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If you wanted in that above proposal, I'd be willing to upgrade the 3rd to a 2nd or you could send a salary dump our way...

so it could be.....

JVR, 1st in 09

for

Kaberle, 2nd in 09



or



JVR, 1st in 09, Lupul/Jones

for

Kaberle, 3rd in 09

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:15 PM
  #62
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No not really.

First, start by eliminating the players on entry level contracts (which you made many mistakes on btw)[/QUOTE]

Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. If I made mistakes then NHLscap.com is making mistakes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
Connolly strikes you immediately as someone who does not belong on this list. Either because of his irregular string of injuries or very high PPG rate as compared to the rest of the players on this list, he does not serve as a good comparable.
You're a genius, I'm telling you. Connolly was PPG. That's obvious, but he still fell into the jurisdiction of the argument. I wasn't basing it on how many games each player played. I included him in there only because he fell into all the criteria I was using even though he is clearly a special case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
Next, you take out the players whose main contribution, unlike Lupul, is not to put up points. So we're talking about players with great PK ability, two-way ability, pest roles, etc. Those would be Ruutu, Laich, Burrows, Staal, and Ott.
Lupul plays the PK and PP. He's not our top penalty killer because we have players like Carter, Richards, and Gagne...all of which are as defensively sound if not more than Ruutu, Laich, Burrows, Staal, and Ott. You can't blame Lupul for not being our top PK player with some many solid defensively minded forwards also including Giroux and Hartnell who are as good as anyone you mentioned above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
That now leaves us with the more-or-less offensive players. Now instead of conviniently taking into account only a down year, let's take their 3 year averages, take their salary, and then rank them by an efficiency ratio using points per game / $1 million.

BLAH BLAH - edited to conserve space

Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.
Simply put, you're just whittling players down to make it look like Lupul isn't worth as much as others. Would I like him to cost less? Sure I would, but that's his value as of last offseason when he was offered the deal. And why are we going by last three year's averages? Players develop at different speeds. Why not just take into account their junior averages and draft position?

If you want to keep arguing you could also say that a lot of those players play on differently situated lines and excel at different areas of the game. Lupul is a sniper playing with two other snipers, one of which is the biggest puck hog I've ever seen - Carter.

You'll note Lupul's numbers last season pre-injury when he was playing with a set-up guy like Richards...basically you could say the way he fits into the Flyers lineup currently doesn't fit him the best way so if he was moved he'd have more value.

You're just getting ridiculous at this point. Even your final point was that he is the most overpaid through three years. First put his salary back to 2.31m because he hasn't played a game at 4.25m yet, and second realize that he isn't even that much overpaid when you use every stat and argument in the book to try to lessen his value.

Way to go.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:17 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by embracedbias View Post
Perhaps you shouldn't take credit for something that you had nothing to do with? You probably shouldn't take so much pride in it either.

For the record, Tlusty has 84 points in 80 AHL games. Giroux has 36 points in 38 AHL games. Only "trusting" forward prospects that have been drafted by your own team is as close to an outright declaration of homerism as I require in order to take your opinions with a grain of salt.
Don't take it that far. What I basically said is that I trust the forwards the Flyers draft more than I trust forwards the Leafs have drafted.

And if that makes me a homer...then I'm a homer.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:22 PM
  #64
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From a Pittsburgh fan's perspective, I'd love to see the Flyers make this trade. Which means that Philadelphia gets hosed -- big time.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:24 PM
  #65
DougGilmour93
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Originally Posted by RottenScoundrel View Post
From a Pittsburgh fan's perspective, I'd love to see the Flyers make this trade. Which means that Philadelphia gets hosed -- big time.
So hosed is a good term now?

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:25 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.
Nice work. Destroyed that argument.

Quote:
Originally Posted by facts View Post
I am tired of every proposal involving toronto cleaning the other team and underating their players. 1 watch what burke gets for kubina this summer during his window of opportunity and 2 look at reality asde from schenn toronto has nobody, zero prospects zero leverage for trades so look at any deal involving kubina or kaberla as an opportunity to move salary and continue the rebuild.
Oh no! This is reality? Shucks! Looks like Toronto is doomed...

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:32 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
Don't take it that far. What I basically said is that I trust the forwards the Flyers draft more than I trust forwards the Leafs have drafted.

And if that makes me a homer...then I'm a homer.
Does rating a propect higher based on which team that he is drafted by as opposed to the objective merits of the actual prospect make you a homer? Yes, it certainly does.

Quote:
Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
Simply put, you're just whittling players down to make it look like Lupul isn't worth as much as others. Would I like him to cost less? Sure I would, but that's his value as of last offseason when he was offered the deal. And why are we going by last three year's averages? Players develop at different speeds. Why not just take into account their junior averages and draft position?

If you want to keep arguing you could also say that a lot of those players play on differently situated lines and excel at different areas of the game. Lupul is a sniper playing with two other snipers, one of which is the biggest puck hog I've ever seen - Carter.

You'll note Lupul's numbers last season pre-injury when he was playing with a set-up guy like Richards...basically you could say the way he fits into the Flyers lineup currently doesn't fit him the best way so if he was moved he'd have more value.

You're just getting ridiculous at this point. Even your final point was that he is the most overpaid through three years. First put his salary back to 2.31m because he hasn't played a game at 4.25m yet, and second realize that he isn't even that much overpaid when you use every stat and argument in the book to try to lessen his value.

Way to go.
Translation: You've proven my stats-based argument wrong with more in-depth stats... but I'm still right because your argument relies too heavily on stats.

Brilliant.

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Old
05-14-2009, 03:41 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
No not really.

First, start by eliminating the players on entry level contracts (which you made many mistakes on btw)

That leaves you with:

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
74 GP - 56 P : $4.75m - 3 more years

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
76 GP - 55 P : $1.75m - 1 more year

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
82 GP - 54 P : $2.50m - 2 more years

Tuomo Ruutu (26yo - CAR - LW)
79 GP - 54 P : $2.25m - RFA

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
74 GP - 53 P : $4.00m - 2 more years

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
80 GP - 53 P : $3.18m - 5 more years

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
82 GP - 53 P : $3.73m - 3 more years

Brooks Laich (25yo - WSH - C)
82 GP - 53 P : $2.07 - 2 more years

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
71 GP - 52 P : $1.60m - RFA

Alex Burrows (28yo - VAN - RW)
82 GP - 51 P : $2.00m - 4 more years

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
79 GP - 50 P : $4.25m - 4 more years

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
71 GP - 50 P : $4.50m - 6 more years

Jordan Staal (20yo - PIT - C)
82 GP - 49 P : $4.00m - 4 more years

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
80 GP - 47 P : $2.20m - UFA

Tim Connolly (27yo - BUF - C)
48 GP - 47 P : $4.50m - 2 more years

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
82 GP - 46 P : $3.75m - 3 more years

Steve Ott (26yo - DAL - C)
64 GP - 46 P : $1.43 - 1 more year

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
71 GP - 46 P : $4.08m - 4 more years

Connolly strikes you immediately as someone who does not belong on this list. Either because of his irregular string of injuries or very high PPG rate as compared to the rest of the players on this list, he does not serve as a good comparable.

Next, you take out the players whose main contribution, unlike Lupul, is not to put up points. So we're talking about players with great PK ability, two-way ability, pest roles, etc. Those would be Ruutu, Laich, Burrows, Staal, and Ott.

That now leaves us with the more-or-less offensive players. Now instead of conviniently taking into account only a down year, let's take their 3 year averages, take their salary, and then rank them by an efficiency ratio using points per game / $1 million.

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
$1.60m - RFA
3 year average: 0.65 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.65 / 1.60 = 0.408

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
$1.75m - 1 more year
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.30 / 1.75 = 0.302

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
$2.20m - UFA
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 2.20 = 0.260

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
$2.50m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.53 / 2.50 = 0.212

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
$3.18m - 5 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.18 = 0.209

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
$3.73m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.73 = 0.178

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
$4.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.84 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.84 / 4.75 = 0.178

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
$4.08m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.71 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.71 / 4.08 = 0.174

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
$4.50m - 6 more years
3 year average: 0.76 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.76 / 4.50 = 0.170

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
$4.00m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.63 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.63 / 4.00 = 0.157

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
$3.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.52 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.52 / 3.75 = 0.140

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
$4.25m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 4.25 = 0.135

Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.
lupul made $2.3 mil last season. you're comparing his production last season with his contract that hasn't even started yet. using that old contract, his efficiency is more like 0.238, which is solid. does he deserve the raise he got? probably not, at least based on last season. but i'm going to wait and see how he does next year before i call him overpaid.

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05-14-2009, 03:41 PM
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Norm MacDonald
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No, Carle was actually one of the better Flyers in the playoffs.
That's just not true. He was constantly getting beat in the defensive zone and made poor decisions all over the ice.

That being said, the notion that Lupul and Carle have "negative" value as some posters here seem to think, is pretty ridiculous. Carle is a top 4 offensive defenseman and Lupul is a 50 point player. Also, it's not like either has tremendously terrible contracts.

To Acekicker... using the past 3 seasons is a very arbitrary number that conveniently works against Lupul. He was offered that contract after what many thought was a "rebound year" where he started to perform very well for a new club. That last season in those 3 was his poor season in Edmonton, which drastically brings down his PPG.

If instead of using the past 3 seasons and instead used the past 2 (which is when he actually earned his contract), the "efficiency ratio" would be much different. Lupul would be closer to the top, and a lot of these other guys (like Kunitz or Ryder) would be closer to the bottom. It just shows how stats can be easily manipulated.

Also, although "efficiency ratio" sounds nice, it's not a very good measure of determining how valuable a player is. Mostly, because the contract a player earns and how many points a player gets isn't really a linear relationship. For the past season, Ovechkin had a "efficiency ratio" of 0.146. I guess he has less value than Ryan Clowe, Matt Stajan and Jason Williams.

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05-14-2009, 03:52 PM
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Wow, are you ever ignorant. Read this article: http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960

The average for a player drafted between 16-25 is an NHL regular (i.e., less than a top 9 forward or top 6 defenseman). I think you might just be putting too much stake into the comparison of this draft to that of 2003. To think that a pick ~20th overall is all but guaranteed to become as good as Richards is absolutely absurd.

....blah blah blah

ROFLMFAO @ you. did YOU actually read the arcticle you posted??? DID YOU???? They looked at 10 draft years ad gave "typical" production from players taken in each group. Did you actually look at the players listed as the best in each group??? Did you, or is it that you werejust hoping that the rest of us wouldn't actually look at them???

Here's the breakdown for you: 6-10 group - out of 50 players over the 10 years they picked 2 (that's 40% of the guys in that range for the 03 draft) guys from te 03 draft class in their 5 best from this range.

11-15 group - again 2 of the 5 players from the 03 draft were listed amoung the BEST of the 50 from this grouping.

16-20 group - 3 of the 5 players fromthe 03 draft were listed amoung the best of the 50 from this group.

21-25 group - jus Mike Richards from the 03 class was listed in the top for this group but I at least think they are short sighted for leaving Kesler off that list.

26-30 group - Only Cory Perry from the 03 draft was listed amoung the best for this grouping.


Also, do you know how many players taken in te 03 draft were listed amoung the WORST in each grouping??? Just 1, Hugh Jessiman. That's just 1 "bad" pick out of 29 listed as the worst for their grouping. On the flip side, there were 7 selected for the 03 draft as being the best in their grouping out of 22. That's over 1/3rd of the best players in each group over a ten year period all coming from just 1 draft class.


Now, are YOU going to say that you know more than professional scouts and that this year will be a typical year and NOT more similar to the 03 draft as all the experts predict??? Fine, then if you'r so unsure about this years draft then why dont you trade your first this year to Pheonix for their 1st next year??? I mean they are about as bad as Tor and should be pickng right around the same position next year and if a pick his year is "typical" then what's the difference between this years top 7 1st and next years top 7 1st???

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05-14-2009, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
lupul made $2.3 mil last season. you're comparing his production last season with his contract that hasn't even started yet. using that old contract, his efficiency is more like 0.238, which is solid. does he deserve the raise he got? probably not, at least based on last season. but i'm going to wait and see how he does next year before i call him overpaid.
to remain at that efficiency Lupul will have to score at a 1.0115 PPG pace

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05-14-2009, 03:54 PM
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I'm not a pro scout so do't expect me to predict who will be a top end player like Richards at around the #20 pick but I'm certain there are scouts out there who have guys rated just as high as Richards was rated back in 03.

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05-14-2009, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by embracedbias;19565894[B
] Nice work. Destroyed that argument[/B].



Oh no! This is reality? Shucks! Looks like Toronto is doomed...


ROFLMFAO @ you again. I guess that this mean that I DESTROYED your pathetic argument too then right???

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05-14-2009, 04:16 PM
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from a flyers fan, i find this awful

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05-14-2009, 04:27 PM
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embracedbias
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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
Now, are YOU going to say that you know more than professional scouts and that this year will be a typical year and NOT more similar to the 03 draft as all the experts predict??? Fine, then if you'r so unsure about this years draft then why dont you trade your first this year to Pheonix for their 1st next year??? I mean they are about as bad as Tor and should be pickng right around the same position next year and if a pick his year is "typical" then what's the difference between this years top 7 1st and next years top 7 1st???
Can you please supply a link for this. I recall that some have said that this may be the deepest draft since 2003, but I haven't read anything that quoted a scout saying that this draft will be "similar" to 2003.

I don't want to burst your bubble, but it isn't 2003. I'm interested to see some links that demonstrate your position that all of the experts predict that players projected in the mid-to-late 1st round in this years draft are guaranteed to become as good as Richards and Getzlaf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
I'm not a pro scout so do't expect me to predict who will be a top end player like Richards at around the #20 pick but I'm certain there are scouts out there who have guys rated just as high as Richards was rated back in 03.
You are sure that there are scouts that have people rated in the same position as Richards was in 2003. I want you to re-read this and think about it.

If a scout has a player ranked in the same position as Richards was in 2003 (lets say, 25th overall) does that mean that a player that is ranked 25th overall in this years draft will become as good as Richards? You are taking a general statement about the relative strength of this years draft as compared to 2003 and applying it to individual prospects. Do you honestly believe that NHL scouts think that players that are as good as Richards and Getzlaf are all but guaranteed picks? My God man.

Perhaps you should look at the individual scouting reports for the prospects that are expected to be chosen ~20. You'll find that these projections, written by PROFESSIONAL SCOUTs (ZOMG - ROFLMFAO!!) remember, aren't nearly as amazing as you might think. Will some players improve pass their projections? Absolutely. Will some players bust? Absolutely. Its a ****ing draft.

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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
ROFLMFAO @ you again. I guess that this mean that I DESTROYED your pathetic argument too then right???
No, because you didn't have a reasonable argument. Yours is just a whole lot of ranting and raving about 2003.

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