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Old
05-14-2009, 09:44 PM
  #101
twenty2
 
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Originally Posted by Letang58 View Post
Maybe a bit much, maybe not enough.

Lupul and Carle could both be viewed as having negative value, or they could be viewed as valuable assets.

If it's worth questioning, it's probably pretty close.
That makes no sense.

Value is not determined only by the generalized value of fans based on contract and point production.

A lot of it has to do with team needs, specialties, age, etc.

It has nothing to do with being worth arguing.

For example:

Crosby is a valuable asset on most teams...on the Flyers his contract would be problem for the Flyers causing us to lose 2-3 key players.

Lupul is a young 50 point sniper with potential to get upwards of 70 points a season and 30-35 goals. On the Flyers he's pushing an extra player with Giroux's emergence and other players waiting in the wings. For a team that could use a young offensive boost from a sniper Lupul has quite a bit of value.

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Old
05-14-2009, 09:55 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Tripod View Post
And if he has that value...why is he still a Leaf? If everone is offering their 1st for him...Burke would have went to Kubina and got the NTC waived.
Burke was very public that he would not ask a player to waive their NTC. However...

At the 2008 TDL, Cliff Fletcher had a deal in place with SJ that would trade Kubina for Steve Bernier and a 1st Round Pick, but Kubina changed his mind and scuttled the deal by refusing to waive his NTC.

SJ later used that same package to get Brian Campbell.


Last edited by drofnats: 05-14-2009 at 10:38 PM.
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Old
05-14-2009, 10:05 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
To TOR:
JVR, Carle, 1st

To PHI:
Kaberle, Tlsuty, Ponikarovsky, 2nd


That is an incredible overpayment by the Leafs. Ludicrous even

Try this..

JVR + 1st

for

Kaberle, 3rd in 09



Carle is noting speical as of late. Isn't he playing himself off the Flyers?
And this is why leaf fans get bashed. There is this magazine that talks about hockey. It is called The Hockey News. And every year they rank prospects. Here is the company JVR keeps.
Filatov,Hodgson,Markstrom,Wilson,Pietrangelo,JVR,K arlsson,GIROUX,Myers,Pacioretty,Rask,Varlamov,Sbis a.... I would continue until I get to a Leaf but they only listed the
top 50 and there is no Leaf in sight. Now look who JVR is AHEAD OF!!!You should have heard of them. With Bobby Ryan taking a long time to develop...most see this path for JVR. And wouldn't it be foolish to trade that upside? So please...use some common sense.

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Old
05-14-2009, 10:22 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by drofnats View Post
Burke was very public that he would not ask a player to waive their NTC. However...

At the 2008 TDL, Cliff Fletcher had a deal in place with SJ that would trade Kubina for Steve Bernier a 1st Round Pick, but Kubina changed his mind and scuttled the deal by refusing to waive his NTC.

SJ later used that same package to get Brian Campbell.
Everyone needs to remember that just because a GM says something doesn't make it true. Burke said he would not ask them to waive...could be true or maybe he was not offered what HE felt was enough.
Burke has said Kaberle is worth a 1st, a top prospect, and a roster player.
Lawton has said the #1 overall is worth the #7, Kaberle and Shenn.
Can't you all see that these last 2 views are the same. You all say Lawton is crazy and Burke's value is right. They both are the same...they are posturing to try and get the best deal...but it doesn't make either one true.

And if that is what Lawton wants and won't budge...Burke should decline and focus on getting a good young player at #7 and try and see if he can turn Kaberle and Kubina into 2 more 1st...and really accelerate the rebuild.

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Old
05-14-2009, 10:32 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Lupul = negative (as in bad)

In order for us to take him on...you have to make it worth our while. Does that explain it better. Maybe I wasn't clear before.
Yeah, beacause TOR is soooo scary friggin talented they can't possible add a 25 y/o 25+ goal scorer to their staple of Rocket Richard trophy candidates...give me a friggin break with "negative value".

the guy lead the team in hits the previous season before getting hatchered.

lupul will not be a salary dump by the flyers...if anything they will let knuble walk and waive jones to clear some space.

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Old
05-15-2009, 01:02 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Acekicker123 View Post
No not really.

First, start by eliminating the players on entry level contracts (which you made many mistakes on btw)

That leaves you with:

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
74 GP - 56 P : $4.75m - 3 more years

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
76 GP - 55 P : $1.75m - 1 more year

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
82 GP - 54 P : $2.50m - 2 more years

Tuomo Ruutu (26yo - CAR - LW)
79 GP - 54 P : $2.25m - RFA

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
74 GP - 53 P : $4.00m - 2 more years

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
80 GP - 53 P : $3.18m - 5 more years

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
82 GP - 53 P : $3.73m - 3 more years

Brooks Laich (25yo - WSH - C)
82 GP - 53 P : $2.07 - 2 more years

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
71 GP - 52 P : $1.60m - RFA

Alex Burrows (28yo - VAN - RW)
82 GP - 51 P : $2.00m - 4 more years

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
79 GP - 50 P : $4.25m - 4 more years

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
71 GP - 50 P : $4.50m - 6 more years

Jordan Staal (20yo - PIT - C)
82 GP - 49 P : $4.00m - 4 more years

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
80 GP - 47 P : $2.20m - UFA

Tim Connolly (27yo - BUF - C)
48 GP - 47 P : $4.50m - 2 more years

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
82 GP - 46 P : $3.75m - 3 more years

Steve Ott (26yo - DAL - C)
64 GP - 46 P : $1.43 - 1 more year

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
71 GP - 46 P : $4.08m - 4 more years

Connolly strikes you immediately as someone who does not belong on this list. Either because of his irregular string of injuries or very high PPG rate as compared to the rest of the players on this list, he does not serve as a good comparable.

Next, you take out the players whose main contribution, unlike Lupul, is not to put up points. So we're talking about players with great PK ability, two-way ability, pest roles, etc. Those would be Ruutu, Laich, Burrows, Staal, and Ott.

That now leaves us with the more-or-less offensive players. Now instead of conviniently taking into account only a down year, let's take their 3 year averages, take their salary, and then rank them by an efficiency ratio using points per game / $1 million.

Ryane Clowe (26yo - SJS - LW)
$1.60m - RFA
3 year average: 0.65 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.65 / 1.60 = 0.408

Matt Stajan (25yo - TOR - C)
$1.75m - 1 more year
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.30 / 1.75 = 0.302

Jason Williams (28yo - CBJ - RW)
$2.20m - UFA
3 year average: 0.57 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 2.20 = 0.260

David Backes (25yo - STL - RW)
$2.50m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.53 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.53 / 2.50 = 0.212

Dustin Brown (24yo - LAK - RW)
$3.18m - 5 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.18 = 0.209

Chris Kunitz (29yo - PIT - LW)
$3.73m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.67 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.67 / 3.73 = 0.178

Kristian Huselius (30yo - CBJ - LW)
$4.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.84 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.84 / 4.75 = 0.178

Pierre-Marc Bouchard (25yo - MIN - C)
$4.08m - 4 more years
3 year average: 0.71 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.71 / 4.08 = 0.174

Martin Erat (27yo - NSH - RW)
$4.50m - 6 more years
3 year average: 0.76 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.76 / 4.50 = 0.170

Michael Ryder (29yo - BOS - RW)
$4.00m - 2 more years
3 year average: 0.63 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.63 / 4.00 = 0.157

RJ Umberger (27yo - CBJ - C)
$3.75m - 3 more years
3 year average: 0.52 PPG
Efficiency ratio: 0.52 / 3.75 = 0.140

Joffrey Lupul (25yo - PHI - RW)
$2.312m - last year
3 year average: 0.57 PPG

Efficiency ratio: 0.57 / 2.312 = 0.247

Simply put, Lupul is the MOST overpaid of all his comparables.
THER, I fixed it for you. Lupul did NOT get paid 4.25 mil this year, he got paid significantly LESS. This puts him near the very top of you list. Clowe won't be getting paid the same next year as he is this year. He's due a pay increase as proved by your stats. Stajan certainly won't stay at his current price after next season, he too will be due a pay increase. Williams is a UFA, do you think he'll stay at 2.2 mil??? His efficiency number will drop too after his pay increase. That's it for the guys on your own list who are currently above Lupul on your efficeintcy stat. You can't put Lupul's salay number from a year he didn't play on this years stats. If you are going to do it to him then you MUST leave off anyone who's contract is up after this season because you don't know what their new number will be.

I give you credit for trying to spin things like this but it simply doesn't hold water. Also, if you really want to get an accurate look at where this pay raise falls value wise you have to take into account what the cap limit was at the time each contract was signed and the percentage of the cap that the contract takes up when it is signed. Other things that need to be accounted for when evaluating a cotract is it's lenght. This new contract eats up either 2 or 3 UFA years for Lupul. He could have signed a 1 or 2 years deal for say 3.25 mil and then gone out as a UFA and gotten more on the open market. I mean if Ryan Malone could get 4.5 mil as a UFA last year then Lupul could easily get 5 mil in a year or 2 (providing the cap doesn't significantly decrease).

I understand that YOU think he's far from worth his new contract but the fact is that it's a fair contract. He'll most likely be slightly over paid next season, right at market value the next season and then a slight to decent bargin in his last 2 seasons. emember, EVERYONE here laughed at the Flyers when we signed Scott Hartnell for 6 years at 4.2 mil and now everyone and their grandmother askes for him in any trade proposal with us. Lupul may not be great value at 4.25 mil but he's far far from negative value.

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Old
05-15-2009, 01:07 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Terrible proposal

Lupul is too inconsistent. Terrible skater. Than add the fact that he has a retarded contract kicking in next yr for another 4 years...ya, he's definetely negative asset. C'mon, who are you trying to kid? Yourselves? Cause your not fooling us.

What about this...


Kubina, 2nd in 09

for

1st in 09, Parent
Now I know you don't know who Lupul is, he's very far from a bad skater. In fact it's one of his best attributes.

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Old
05-15-2009, 03:39 AM
  #108
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This thread has gotten preposterously feminine with all the back-and-forth bickering between the Leafs and Flyers fan bases, primarily (why am I not surprised, given that their teams are the ones involved in the proposed deal?). The fact of the matter is, Pavel Kubina is a top-4 defenseman. He'd provide a sorely lacking veteran presence along the blue line to take the pressure off Timonen and help the younger players (Coburn, Parent) develop further.

I like Lupul... when he plays the way he did before getting hit by Hatcher last season. The Joffrey Lupul from this past season was a one-dimensional player who didn't provide much else aside from goal scoring. When he went into prolonged unproductive periods goal-wise, he contributed little else. The guy just disappears way too much for my liking. I think Lupul would benefit greatly from playing regularly on a line with Richards or Giroux, but I'm not the coach. As for Carle, his regression over the past two seasons -- compared with his rookie campaign -- continues to concern me, especially with his contract. He's a nice player, but it's starting to appear more and more like he benefited from that wealth of talent in San Jose more than anything else. Is he a guy who can help elevate your top-4 to the next level? As it stands right now, I don't think so. However, he's young, so one can hold out hope that more development and improvement remain.

Is Lupul, Carle, and a 1st too much to ask for Kubina? I really can't tell you, because I'm not an NHL GM. However, to be honest, I don't think the value is THAT far off. Maybe make the first rounder for next year, if the Flyers are that set on believing a future impact player will be around at #21. Instead of completely bashing this deal or blowing it apart, all I think it needs is a little tweaking. I'd want to see a little more coming back from Toronto, like a prospect or an extra pick in this year's draft -- or both.

What about:

Lupul, Carle, 2010 1st round pick for Kubina, Viktor Stalberg, and 2009 2nd round pick (pick acquired from NYR for Antropov)

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Old
05-15-2009, 08:20 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by facts View Post
I am tired of every proposal involving toronto cleaning the other team and underating their players. 1 watch what burke gets for kubina this summer during his window of opportunity and 2 look at reality asde from schenn toronto has nobody, zero prospects zero leverage for trades so look at any deal involving kubina or kaberla as an opportunity to move salary and continue the rebuild.
Excellent post.


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Old
05-15-2009, 09:08 AM
  #110
DougGilmour93
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Originally Posted by Tripod View Post
And this is why leaf fans get bashed. There is this magazine that talks about hockey. It is called The Hockey News. And every year they rank prospects. Here is the company JVR keeps.
Filatov,Hodgson,Markstrom,Wilson,Pietrangelo,JVR,K arlsson,GIROUX,Myers,Pacioretty,Rask,Varlamov,Sbis a.... I would continue until I get to a Leaf but they only listed the
top 50 and there is no Leaf in sight. Now look who JVR is AHEAD OF!!!You should have heard of them. With Bobby Ryan taking a long time to develop...most see this path for JVR. And wouldn't it be foolish to trade that upside? So please...use some common sense.
Last year we all know the deal that fell through, it was Carter and a 1st for Kaberle. Kaberle said no.

Thna Carter went on to have a crazy year this year. Good for him. The Carter last year is worth more than the JVR this year.

Hence we base the proposal on something that almost came to fruition. Reality based. Not fantasy. hence the deal works on so many levels.

Yes, Kaberle did not have his best year this year, therefore we downgrade the player from Carter (last years version) to JVR and Toronto also throws in a 3rd round pick. I may even go as far as a 2nd, but alas I'm not Burke.

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05-15-2009, 09:10 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Amateur Hour View Post
This thread has gotten preposterously feminine with all the back-and-forth bickering between the Leafs and Flyers fan bases, primarily (why am I not surprised, given that their teams are the ones involved in the proposed deal?). The fact of the matter is, Pavel Kubina is a top-4 defenseman. He'd provide a sorely lacking veteran presence along the blue line to take the pressure off Timonen and help the younger players (Coburn, Parent) develop further.

I like Lupul... when he plays the way he did before getting hit by Hatcher last season. The Joffrey Lupul from this past season was a one-dimensional player who didn't provide much else aside from goal scoring. When he went into prolonged unproductive periods goal-wise, he contributed little else. The guy just disappears way too much for my liking. I think Lupul would benefit greatly from playing regularly on a line with Richards or Giroux, but I'm not the coach. As for Carle, his regression over the past two seasons -- compared with his rookie campaign -- continues to concern me, especially with his contract. He's a nice player, but it's starting to appear more and more like he benefited from that wealth of talent in San Jose more than anything else. Is he a guy who can help elevate your top-4 to the next level? As it stands right now, I don't think so. However, he's young, so one can hold out hope that more development and improvement remain.

Is Lupul, Carle, and a 1st too much to ask for Kubina? I really can't tell you, because I'm not an NHL GM. However, to be honest, I don't think the value is THAT far off. Maybe make the first rounder for next year, if the Flyers are that set on believing a future impact player will be around at #21. Instead of completely bashing this deal or blowing it apart, all I think it needs is a little tweaking. I'd want to see a little more coming back from Toronto, like a prospect or an extra pick in this year's draft -- or both.

What about:

Lupul, Carle, 2010 1st round pick for Kubina, Viktor Stalberg, and 2009 2nd round pick (pick acquired from NYR for Antropov)

You won't be getting Stahlberg. He's a beast.

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Old
05-15-2009, 09:54 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Last year we all know the deal that fell through, it was Carter and a 1st for Kaberle. Kaberle said no.

Thna Carter went on to have a crazy year this year. Good for him. The Carter last year is worth more than the JVR this year.

Hence we base the proposal on something that almost came to fruition. Reality based. Not fantasy. hence the deal works on so many levels.

Yes, Kaberle did not have his best year this year, therefore we downgrade the player from Carter (last years version) to JVR and Toronto also throws in a 3rd round pick. I may even go as far as a 2nd, but alas I'm not Burke.
Salary cap says "hi".

Also we wanted Kaberle before we had Carle. Verdict: We don't want your ****.

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05-15-2009, 10:06 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
Salary cap says "hi".

Also we wanted Kaberle before we had Carle. Verdict: We don't want your ****.
Umm, teams do strive to get better....don't ya know...Kaberle would be your #1 dman.

Don't ya wanna get better. Just look at what happened in the playoffs....

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05-15-2009, 10:12 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Umm, teams do strive to get better....don't ya know...Kaberle would be your #1 dman.

Don't ya wanna get better. Just look at what happened in the playoffs....
Maybe you should worry about your own team...

I think we're perfectly fine after outplaying the Pens in 4 out of 6, getting ripped off in game 2, and dealing with injuries all season.

If we want to get better we'll look for pieces to fill holes before we trade away assets to get marginally better at a certain position.

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05-15-2009, 10:27 AM
  #115
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Maybe you should worry about your own team...

I think we're perfectly fine after outplaying the Pens in 4 out of 6, getting ripped off in game 2, and dealing with injuries all season.

If we want to get better we'll look for pieces to fill holes before we trade away assets to get marginally better at a certain position.
Out playing the Pens??? Is that why they're still in the playoffs? Makes sense....

As for the Leafs...well we all know what direction they are going in. Flyers are trying to contend. We're in two different boats.

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05-15-2009, 10:31 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Umm, teams do strive to get better....don't ya know...Kaberle would be your #1 dman.
I think you should say something like that to your self next year and the year after. I know it is tough to say the same ****ing thing since 2004 but be strong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Don't ya wanna get better. Just look at what happened in the playoffs....
Flyers lost to one of the best teams in the NHL. A team that probably will go to the finals once again.

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05-15-2009, 10:36 AM
  #117
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Out playing the Pens??? Is that why they're still in the playoffs? Makes sense....

As for the Leafs...well we all know what direction they are going in. Flyers are trying to contend. We're in two different boats.
Yes actually we did outplay the Pens in game two through right up to the point where we blew a three goal lead in game six.

Fleury stole a couple games, and the refs handed the Pens game two.

I'm not upset at all by the Flyers' turn out in that series other than game one and the end of game six.

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05-15-2009, 10:37 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Out playing the Pens??? Is that why they're still in the playoffs? Makes sense....

As for the Leafs...well we all know what direction they are going in. Flyers are trying to contend. We're in two different boats.
The Flyers did actually outplay the Pens...it doesn't give us the W and let us still be in the playoffs, but we really did outplay them. One game was all Fluery, no matter how many shots we took or battles we won...it was alllll Fluery.

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05-15-2009, 10:41 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Out playing the Pens??? Is that why they're still in the playoffs? Makes sense....

As for the Leafs...well we all know what direction they are going in. Flyers are trying to contend. We're in two different boats.
Correction. You do not even have a boat.

You were told more then 10 times that your props to "help" our franchise ---> basically rip off.

Are you slow?

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05-15-2009, 10:42 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
Salary cap says "hi".

Also we wanted Kaberle before we had Carle. Verdict: We don't want your ****.
Carle was awfully disappointing from what I saw in the playoffs and in the regular season. There's no comparison there, except in terms of salary.

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05-15-2009, 10:49 AM
  #121
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Carle was awfully disappointing from what I saw in the playoffs and in the regular season. There's no comparison there, except in terms of salary.
Yes, Carle was disappointing...

Remember when the Flyers were out of the playoff picture way back at the beginning of the season? Jones and Parent were hurt, and the Flyers were desperately short on defense. Any idea what trade sparked our turn around through november and december? Yeah it was when we got Carle.

Carle played very well throughout the season for what we expected him to do. He's an offensive defenseman, and plays very well when joining the rush. He's not nearly as bad in his own zone as people give him credit for.

After the playoffs John Stevens praised his efforts.

While he has momentary lapses he is not all that bad. The Flyers would like to upgrade him by getting a different type of defenseman. That has nothing to do with Carle.

You act as if you watch him all the time. You clearly don't.

You're undervaluing Carle just because you make assumptions based on no actual facts.

That my friend is what we call uneducated.

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05-15-2009, 11:08 AM
  #122
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Originally Posted by twenty2 View Post
While he has momentary lapses he is not all that bad. The Flyers would like to upgrade him by getting a different type of defenseman. That has nothing to do with Carle.

You act as if you watch him all the time. You clearly don't.

You're undervaluing Carle just because you make assumptions based on no actual facts.

That my friend is what we call uneducated.
Excuse me? This was the first thing I said in the thread about Carle. I didn't say anything about watching him all the time - in fact, I specifically said "from what I saw". That said, I've seen plenty of Matt Carle over the past year, and I feel pretty confident in my opinion of his current ability.

In terms of facts, he's an offensive defenceman who hasn't had a good offensive season since his rookie year, and has been dealt twice during that time. He had 5 goals and 26 points last year, and he has a cap hit of 3.5 mil per season for the next three years. Right now, he isn't living up to that contract. I wouldn't want to trade anything for him. Other people may like his upside enough to take a chance, but I'd rather not take up another roster spot with an overpaid defenceman.

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05-15-2009, 11:43 AM
  #123
embracedbias
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I understand that YOU think he's far from worth his new contract but the fact is that it's a fair contract. He'll most likely be slightly over paid next season, right at market value the next season and then a slight to decent bargin in his last 2 seasons. emember, EVERYONE here laughed at the Flyers when we signed Scott Hartnell for 6 years at 4.2 mil and now everyone and their grandmother askes for him in any trade proposal with us. Lupul may not be great value at 4.25 mil but he's far far from negative value.
What Acekicker's stats showed is that if Lupul stays at the same production as he has for the last 3 years then his contract will be bad. You are obviously under the impression that once the new contract kicks in (i.e., next season), Lupul's game will have improved - thereby making him worth the contract.

It is quite possible that Lupul does improve (as Hartnell has) and makes his contract look like a deal, but this isn't something that you should take for granted in your argument (you seem to be bad for that). Assuming that Lupul produces at his current rate (this season = 0.629 PPG/4.25 = 1.49 "efficiency ratio"), his contract isn't very good.

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Originally Posted by Amateur Hour View Post
This thread has gotten preposterously feminine with all the back-and-forth bickering...

Lupul, Carle, 2010 1st round pick for Kubina, Viktor Stalberg, and 2009 2nd round pick (pick acquired from NYR for Antropov)
Politicians must be quite effeminate in that case.

I doubt Stalberg gets traded as his stock has risen significantly this season. He was also just signed by Burke and even got into a couple games with the Marlies in the playoffs.

You mentioned that the trade may be close, but then added a pretty good prospect and a 2nd rounder (from a team that is rebuilding) to even it out?

Also, the 1st rounder would have to be for this draft. I doubt if Philly would have the choice considering that they are getting both the best player in the trade and the best prospect (its the Leafs that are looking for draft picks and prospects, remember). Not to mention that the 2010 1st rounder could end up being quite low, making the difference between a mid-2nd rounder in a deep draft (this year) and a low 1st in next year quite minimal.

Overall, way off base.

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Old
05-15-2009, 11:54 AM
  #124
LEIFey
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Umm, teams do strive to get better....don't ya know...Kaberle would be your #1 dman.

Don't ya wanna get better. Just look at what happened in the playoffs....
kimmo timonen says hi.

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05-15-2009, 12:00 PM
  #125
DougGilmour93
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
kimmo timonen says hi.
Kaberle >> Timonen

Take everything under consideration. Contract...raw natural talent/ability, age, size, etc...Kaberle wins easily


Last edited by DougGilmour93: 05-15-2009 at 12:07 PM.
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