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Old
05-21-2009, 02:37 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
At least. I'd see it getting in to a bidding war and us coming out on top. But I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out.

I see Toronto getting...

a mid 1st
top prospect
3rd line player (with upside)
change that to a #20-30 1st
"B" prospect ( no JVR, Karlsson, Hodgson)
serviceable NHL player

and yeah youre in the ballpark

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05-21-2009, 02:45 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Isles_Guy View Post
ok, I trust your objectivity enough to accept that, only someome who watches a goallie consistently can really say anyway, I just remember how good he was out west and when he first arrived in Toronto...he was clearly better than Raycroft.

and its not that im anti Kaberle, I think he's marvelous with the puck, one of the 3 or 4 best in the game, but Defensively I put him behind Kubina and White and on a par with Van Ryn
I should say that I'm brutal at evaluating goalies, so take what I say about them with a grain of salt. It's safe to say that I understand defense a lot better.

I think we're on the same page about Kaberle, that's pretty much my read on him. I don't think he'll be traded, because he's a hard guy to replace. If we deal him for futures, we're going into a serious rebuild, and we can expect to be even worse next year.

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05-21-2009, 02:46 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Hntrmn View Post
OT: But do you think that Kaberle for the 8/9/10th Overall Pick STRAIGHT UP is good value?
I'd rather a mid pick and the other assets we'd get. I'd say 9-20 is all the same talent wise anyways.

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05-21-2009, 02:49 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Isles_Guy View Post
change that to a #20-30 1st
"B" prospect ( no JVR, Karlsson, Hodgson)
serviceable NHL player

and yeah youre in the ballpark

I don't expect a player of JVR's quality unless all we got back was the 1st and the prospect. (JVR)

JVR, I guess would be a top top prospect. I would assume the top 10 prospects in the league would be off the table in this type of deal.

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05-21-2009, 03:28 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
Thats just crazy talk.

The reason there are so many Kaberle to Florida talks is because it seems like Martin has interest in him.

Martin screwed the Panthers when he didn't trade Jay-bo, now he needs to replace him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers 1st + Matthias for Kaberle (at the draft)
How does it "seem" like he has interest in him? Because every day there is a new Kaberle to Florida proposal on these boards?

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05-21-2009, 04:29 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Gutchecktime View Post
I'm so tired of this garbage. This is completely untrue.
Don't worry Leaf fans, Kaberle will get the credit he's due when he's on another team.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/2008/5_on...10&team=&pos=D

sorry for letting real league results bother your belief that Kaberle is the greatest Dman on the greatest team in the greatest city in the greatest country in the whole wide world.

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05-21-2009, 04:32 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Isles_Guy View Post
absolutely correct, id be shocked if a non playoff team gave up a first for Kaberle. the only way I can see a team giving up a 1st would be a veteran playoff team like the Rangers or Flyers for example, What would a non playoff team want with a soon to be 32 yr old, defensively challenged defender? at least a playoff team can use his offensive skills which are still excellent.

And Grabo, Toskala was an excellent goallie, Till he arrived in Toronto, with a career 2.35 gaa and a .916 save percentage, it wasnt till he had Kaberle & co as his defense that he became so bad. I would say youre putting the cart before the horse here, and the goaltending is worse, because the Defense is so weak. Even Pogge was a top prospect before he played in front of that defense.

you're far too intelligent not to consider that, especially since the defense has been going downhill like a freight train for three years now
You sir get it!

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05-21-2009, 04:40 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2008/5_on...10&team=&pos=D

sorry for letting real league results bother your belief that Kaberle is the greatest Dman on the greatest team in the greatest city in the greatest country in the whole wide world.
You still haven't responded to my criticism. This is two threads now where you ignored what I said. You're using a glorified plus/minus stat to evaluate players league wide, and drawing sweeping conclusions about defensive skill based on those numbers. The amount of factors you're ignoring is hard to believe. You'd admit that a player who is in front of an elite goalie (like, say, Luongo) is more likely to have his mistakes, or the mistakes of his teammates saved, right? And that therefore these mistakes wouldn't show up in your stats?

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05-21-2009, 04:55 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Biggzy View Post
Oh my god, seriously, what are you gonna do when you don't get Tavares? Time to take down all those "neat" photoshops of Tavares in a Leafs uniform.

And even if you got him, do you think you're gonna become a "contender" or something with Toskala playing goal.
It was a joke. I don't think that the Leafs will get Tavares. It amuses me to no end when people get pissed off about the talk of it though.

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05-21-2009, 05:23 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Florida would be -20 more in the Goals for/ goals against column. What is that 5 more lost games.

Chara
Weidman
Seidenberg
Souray
Blake
Green

Now if we ask if they were top 60 hits and top 60 Blocks

The answer is Two.

Chara
Seidenberg

These are the only two Dmen top 60 in all defensive categories.

Florida you might want to think about Mr. Seidenberg.
If your stats result in an inference that Seidenberg is one of the best defenseman in the league bells should be ringing in your head. It might just be a sign that you should take them with a grain of salt.... unfortunately you take it as gospel. The problem with this, as I have said in prior threads (to which I got no response), is that hockey is much too complex to be quantified in such a way. You really don't seem to be able to grasp this.

The stats that you cite would be valuable for a controlled experiment, perhaps. There are a HUGE number of factors that aren't taken into account in the context of a hockey game, and these numbers only become greater when extrapolated over an entire season.

I only need one quote to demonstrate how ridiculously naive you are when it comes to statistics....

Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Florida would be -20 more in the Goals for/ goals against column. What is that 5 more lost games.
My god, is this what you think? Is this what you really think?

Don't you think that his ratio may change given different circumstances? Don't you think that this may change from season to season? Do you really think that if Kaberle played for Florida they would have 10 less points?!? He should just ****ing retire, don't you think? He must be one of the worst players in the league! To assume that Kaberle = -20 in the goals for and against column no matter what (i.e., regardless of who his teammates are, who his defense partner is, who his goalie is, who his coach is, what division he is in, whether he is surrounded by trade speculation, etc.) is completely asinine.

So maybe its just that your stats need to be taken with a grain of salt.... naw, that can't be it. They are gospel. Someone call Burke and tell him to sign Dennis Seidenberg and trade Kaberle for a 3rd rounder to some unlucky team. Dennis is our new #1! Playoffs here we come!

P.S. - The fact that it is all based on only one season should also clue you in. By that logic, Lecavalier is worse than Todd White.

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Old
05-21-2009, 05:50 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
All star calibre unless you want to ignore Tomas' previous multiple selections
I'm a fan of neither team, well actually I hate Leafs, and Panthers are an alright team for me. Let me get this straight...Komisarek is worth more than every Dman not in the all-star team then, correct?

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Old
05-21-2009, 06:03 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Dangelo37 View Post
I'm a fan of neither team, well actually I hate Leafs, and Panthers are an alright team for me. Let me get this straight...Komisarek is worth more than every Dman not in the all-star team then, correct?
You know that wasn't what he was saying. But yeah, if a guy is a four time all-star, its safe to say that we can call him an all-star defenceman.

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05-21-2009, 07:56 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by embracedbias View Post

1. If your stats result in an inference that Seidenberg is one of the best defenseman in the league bells should be ringing in your head.




2.My god, is this what you think? Is this what you really think?


3. P.S. - The fact that it is all based on only one season should also clue you in.
1. how many teams in league 30 how many dmen on the first pairings. 60. He may not be first pairing in each category on all teams but he is top 60 in all the categories. On toronto he is first pairing in all situatiuons except PP and hits.
Seidenberg covers at least a first pairing bet in every category. Is he top 30 in some no.


But he is better than anyone you currently have on your team. Except kaberle #30on the pp Seidenberg #42 and Schenn hits #5 in the league Seidenberg #28.

2. Could kaberle be better on another team. Possibly. Who wants to pay assets for a maybe.

3. One season no.
Three years yes
06-07 2.85 EVGA 26th worst age 28
07-08 2.75 EVGA 35th worst age 29
08-09 3.23 EVGA 5th worst age 30

This is suppose to be his prime.

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05-21-2009, 08:15 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
1. how many teams in league 30 how many dmen on the first pairings. 60. He may not be first pairing in each category on all teams but he is top 60 in all the categories. On toronto he is first pairing in all situatiuons except PP and hits.
Seidenberg covers at least a first pairing bet in every category. Is he top 30 in some no.


But he is better than anyone you currently have on your team. Except kaberle #30on the pp Seidenberg #42 and Schenn hits #5 in the league Seidenberg #28.

2. Could kaberle be better on another team. Possibly. Who wants to pay assets for a maybe.

3. One season no.
Three years yes
06-07 2.85 EVGA 26th worst age 28
07-08 2.75 EVGA 35th worst age 29
08-09 3.23 EVGA 5th worst age 30

This is suppose to be his prime.
By your logical reasoning, Brind'Amour is the second worst defensive player in the League because of his -23 during the regular season

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Old
05-21-2009, 10:24 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2008/5_on...10&team=&pos=D

sorry for letting real league results bother your belief that Kaberle is the greatest Dman on the greatest team in the greatest city in the greatest country in the whole wide world.

First time poster here. I was reading through this forum and after seeing this particular post I had to post a reply.

Stats like this cannot be used to state the value of a puck-moving Defenceman like Kaberle. As an example, I am posting the stats from last season using the same website.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2007/5_on...i=&team=&pos=D

Notice who is the worst D according to these stats. It is Dan Boyle who similar to Kaberle this year had an injury riddled year in 2007-08.

Also it shows Kaberle is ranked lower in Goals Against/60mins (better D in your interpretation) than other PMD like Markov, Zubov, Campbell, Streit etc. I am not saying Kaberle was better than them last season but only trying to demonstrate how stats like this don't tell you the whole picture.

Regarding Kaberle's value, he should get similar package to what Boyle got. Maybe, slightly better because of the contract. However, since he didn't have a strong season his value could be low right now. In that case, Leafs should hold onto him. He will be very hard to replace; just ask TB management about how much they miss Boyle.

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05-22-2009, 10:00 AM
  #91
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sorry for letting real league results bother your belief that Kaberle is the greatest Dman on the greatest team in the greatest city in the greatest country in the whole wide world.
Ooooh, behind the net.

I've watched Kaberle for nearly a decade now. I've seen him be a top pairing defenseman playing 30 minutes a game on a playoff team, 100 point teams, teams that have won their division.

Now you can keep exaggerating all you want - it just makes you look like an idiot. No, Kaberle isn't the greatest defenseman ever. But he's not a liability out there, nothing could be further from the truth.

Watch some more games - behind the net isn't the hockey gospel.

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05-22-2009, 10:56 AM
  #92
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My favourite stat is that 18% of behind the net searches are for the Edmonton Oilers. It's right on the front page.

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05-22-2009, 11:12 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Gutchecktime View Post
Ooooh, behind the net.

I've watched Kaberle for nearly a decade now. I've seen him be a top pairing defenseman playing 30 minutes a game on a playoff team, 100 point teams, teams that have won their division.

Now you can keep exaggerating all you want - it just makes you look like an idiot. No, Kaberle isn't the greatest defenseman ever. But he's not a liability out there, nothing could be further from the truth.

Watch some more games - behind the net isn't the hockey gospel.
Have been watching HNIC since 69' now watch Center Ice. Pre lockout Kaberle was a beauty. Post lockout PP specialist with consistently terrible EVGA. One year maybe. Four years of similiar results makes you a Koolaid man!

You ran the wrong guy out of town.

edit:exaggerating????????? these numbers are real results! forgive me if stating league stats is hyperbole. His results are what they are. making excuses are subjective and embarrasing.

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05-22-2009, 12:06 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
edit:exaggerating????????? these numbers are real results! forgive me if stating league stats is hyperbole.
It's not the stats that are hyperbole. It's your simplistic interpretation of those stats that we take exception to.

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05-22-2009, 12:10 PM
  #95
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For those of you who think that the reason Toskala was so bad this year was because of the Leafs defense in front of him, then I can easily dismiss what you're saying because its obvious that you didn't watch the Leafs. Toskala was terrible on his own merit, wheather it was from the hip/groin injury he played with who knows, but he was letting in at least one soft goal a game. And anyone who thinks McCabe is better than Kaberle is out to lunch.

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05-22-2009, 12:59 PM
  #96
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Have been watching HNIC since 69' now watch Center Ice. Pre lockout Kaberle was a beauty. Post lockout PP specialist with consistently terrible EVGA. One year maybe. Four years of similiar results makes you a Koolaid man!
You mean, Kaberle has had a consistently terrible "EVGA" ever since the Leafs have been consistently terrible and ever since Leaf goalies have had a consistently terrible SV%? Woah! That's unexpected!

Quote:
You ran the wrong guy out of town.
I didn't run anyone out of town. I've consistently backed McCabe just like I will Kaberle - McCabe wasn't as bad as the lynch mob ever said he was, just like Kaberle isn't as bad as you're saying he is.

People have a real problem with seeing anything good about players on a bad team. Especially when that bad team is Toronto and their mistakes are dwelled upon for weeks. Rangers fans can tell you how much they liked Antropov post-deadline trade. Panthers fans here are telling us that McCabe has been good for them.

Quote:
edit:exaggerating????????? these numbers are real results! forgive me if stating league stats is hyperbole. His results are what they are. making excuses are subjective and embarrasing.
Yes. Exaggerating. "your belief that Kaberle is the greatest Dman on the greatest team in the greatest city in the greatest country in the whole wide world. "

I never said this. I said he's not a liability defensively.

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05-22-2009, 01:09 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Have been watching HNIC since 69' now watch Center Ice. Pre lockout Kaberle was a beauty. Post lockout PP specialist with consistently terrible EVGA. One year maybe. Four years of similiar results makes you a Koolaid man!

You ran the wrong guy out of town.

edit:exaggerating????????? these numbers are real results! forgive me if stating league stats is hyperbole. His results are what they are. making excuses are subjective and embarrasing.
Completely disagree here. Kaberle had a great EVGA/60mins last season also when you compare him to other PMDs.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2007/basi...i=&team=&pos=D

Dan Boyle 3.83
Visnovsky 3.30
Markov 2.83
Kaberle 2.66

So according to these stats and your interpretation Kaberle was one of the best defensively last season when you compare PMD only.

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05-22-2009, 01:37 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
2. Could kaberle be better on another team. Possibly. Who wants to pay assets for a maybe.
When is obtaining a player not a maybe? Kaberle is no more a "maybe" than Thornton from Boston to San Jose, or Souray in Edmonton, or Loungo in Vancouver, or Streit in NY, or Redden, or Savard, etc.

You've also completely missed the point. "Could Kaberle be better on another team". Well, yah... but the point was that the Goals against stat that you were talking about is a team stat. To assume that Kaberle will be the cause of 20 less goals against than that scored regardless of what team he plays for is just so incredibly ignorant. What you fail to realize is that it is, by definition, a circumstantial stat. Every goal that is scored against a given player isn't a direct result of poor play from said player. As such, the stat isn't a completely accurate representation of good or bad play (which you seem to think that it is). Kaberle could have had a great shift and still be on the ice when the team is scored against, he could also have been the cause of the goal. If he is on a bad team with a bad goalie, the chances of him being scored on (even on a great shift) become higher.

The odds of it being the same when the circumstances change are incredibly low. Point totals (something that is MUCH more individual than goals scored against) fluctuate from year to year (sometimes they fluctuate greatly). Why would you assume that this stat would stay the same year in and year out? Moreover, why would you assume that this stat would stay the same year in and year out regardless of the team that he is on? You say that he has been bad in this category for a few seasons now... this is attributable to the fact that his general circumstance (bad team with bad goaltending, etc.) hasn't changed much in the past few seasons.

The point is that these stats (like all stats) need to be taken with a grain of salt. If you really want to know how good he is, perhaps you should watch him play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Have been watching HNIC since 69' now watch Center Ice. Pre lockout Kaberle was a beauty. Post lockout PP specialist with consistently terrible EVGA. One year maybe. Four years of similiar results makes you a Koolaid man!

You ran the wrong guy out of town.

edit:exaggerating????????? these numbers are real results! forgive me if stating league stats is hyperbole. His results are what they are. making excuses are subjective and embarrasing.
Don't hide behind your stats and claim objectivity. The stats themselves are objective. The inferences that you make from the stats are very much subjective. I'll admit, these stats are somewhat interesting.. but when they lead you to believe that Dennis Seidenberg is a better defenseman than Tomas Kaberle, you have taken them too far. Lets not forget that player values, which is what this entire conversation is about (and the apparent reason that I continue to cite these stats) is subjective by definition. Do not fool yourself into thinking that you have found an objective and infallible way to determine player values, for there is no such thing. All we can do is make an educated guess based on all of the information available (which can include your stats, along with contextual things like injuries, playing time, etc.) in conjunction with actually watching the player play.

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05-22-2009, 06:13 PM
  #99
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Or we could just go off of plus minus and show all the players with a worse +/_ in the league then Kaberle. Kaberle lead the team in average minutes played this season. He became the third highest scoring leafs defenceman of all time this season. There were only 4 teams in the NHL that had a worse goals against ratio this season so it would stand to reason that Kaberle's numbers wouldn't be great in that department. To put all of Toronto's defensive woes on Kaberle is obsurd. Toskala was also 43rd in save percentage this season. Something that should be considered in all of this.


Last edited by dredeye: 05-22-2009 at 06:31 PM.
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05-22-2009, 08:36 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Gutchecktime View Post
I said he's not a liability defensively.
gutcheck, since you separate the aspects of his game, and by what you state is minus his offensive accumen, wouldnt you have to state that defensively this year at least he was a defensive liability?

my thought process being that Kubina and Ian White we clearly better at least defensively, I mean watching them play at least to me it was obvious and Schenn despite momentary lapses brought a needed physical aspect to the team. Even Van Ryn, for the time he played was much better than expected. I think you have to say that for whatever reason, whether he was discouraged or what not before his injury, he was clearly not as involved, He's never been one to hit much as you know, but he wasnt hitting at all last year, he had I think 4 penalties all year and he averaged 1.5 hits a week.

there could be something more to it of course but to say he wasnt a defensive liability at all last year, well it really wouldn't be accurate, and thats not to say he cant re dedicate himself or couldnt return to his former self, It's just talking about his defense last year. I mean Brendan Witt was going through it for the Isles too it happens

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