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Old
03-24-2004, 09:53 AM
  #1
dawgbone
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Magic number update

Here is the table:

edit... no longer a table, HTML has been turned off, so it's gonna be a simple list:

Team name, Oilers magic number vs them, their games remaining and their magic number vs the Oilers.

Calgary Flames, 10, 3, 3
St. Louis Blues, 9, 4, 7
Nashville Predators*, 7, 4, 9
L.A. Kings*, 1, 4, 14

*represents teams currently out of the playoffs.

huh???

If you are confused, it's easy.

Any loss by these teams costs them 2 points. Any tie costs them one point. Any win costs them 0 points. Any Oiler win costs them 2 points, Any Oiler tie costs them 1 point. Any Oiler loss costs them 0 points

Nashville was at 15, they lost last night, so they lost 2 points, going from 15-13. This more or less calculates how many points they can end up with. Once they reach 0, the chance of them passing the Oilers in the standings is mathematically eliminated.


Last edited by dawgbone: 03-28-2004 at 09:53 PM.
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Old
03-24-2004, 11:18 AM
  #2
Hairball
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A tie against that team costs them 2 points.

Also, they have to be behind us in the standings for them not to be able to pass us.

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03-24-2004, 12:26 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hairball
A tie against that team costs them 2 points.
If the Oilers tie them, it costs them 2 points (the Oilers get 1 point for the tie, the other team loses 1 for the tie), or if the Oilers and that team tie on the same night. However, if Nashville had tied last night (instead of lost), they would have only lost one point, as opposed to two.

Quote:
Also, they have to be behind us in the standings for them not to be able to pass us.
Which is the purpose of the countdown... if it reaches 0, they will be behind us.

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03-24-2004, 12:32 PM
  #4
The Rage
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This is a great thread idea dawgbone. Keep it updated

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Old
03-24-2004, 12:46 PM
  #5
PineJockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
This is a great thread idea dawgbone. Keep it updated
Agreed. Maybe we can combine it with the Scoreboard Watching thread so that one or both of them don't get buried?

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Old
03-24-2004, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PineJockey
Agreed. Maybe we can combine it with the Scoreboard Watching thread so that one or both of them don't get buried?
lol... well H-bear keeps making a new one, and I would personally just rather edit this table every night, rather than finding, cutting and pasting it.

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Old
03-24-2004, 02:13 PM
  #7
IceDragoon
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If they get "buried", I'm sure someone will come along and dig them up.

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Old
03-24-2004, 03:43 PM
  #8
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This homestand is where it will all be won or lost - it's that clear cut.

Run the table at home against Dallas, LA and Pheonix (this is about as easy as it gets for us this month) and we are pretty much in. However - if we are in a situation where we have to win all of our last 3 games on the road against St. Louis, Dallas and Vancouver - I don't like our odds. Hopefully Vancouver wins a few games down the stretch so that last game is meaningless for them.

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Old
03-26-2004, 11:02 PM
  #9
dawgbone
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Update, Mar 26th vs Los Angeles:

Calgary -2, 0 - DNP
St. Louis -2, 0 - DNP
Nashville -2, 0 - DNP
L.A. -4, 0 - lost to Edmonton

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Old
03-26-2004, 11:47 PM
  #10
Scorpion88
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The Oiler's magic number for LA should be 4 not 2. LA could still lose the next game and win there last four and pass the Oilers.

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03-27-2004, 09:25 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorpion88
The Oiler's magic number for LA should be 4 not 2. LA could still lose the next game and win there last four and pass the Oilers.
yeah, I did -6 instead of -4 at top... meh, it's fixed.

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Old
03-27-2004, 08:03 PM
  #12
dawgbone
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Another crappy day for Oiler fans...

Calgary 0, -2 vs L.A.
St. Louis 0, -2 vs Chicago
Nashville -1, -1 vs Columbus
L.A. -1. -1


Last edited by dawgbone: 03-28-2004 at 09:29 AM.
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Old
03-28-2004, 09:48 PM
  #13
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Big solid win tonight, unfortunately, the Blues won as well....

Calgary -2, 0 DNP
St. Louis -2, -2 vs Chicago
Nashville -2, 0 DNP
L.A. -2. 0 DNP - almost eliminated!!!!

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Old
03-28-2004, 09:53 PM
  #14
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yeah the only thing that concerns me is Nashville's game in hand, fair enough they play the Blues but we ideally need them to drop a game outside of that one for the Oilers to have a great chance.

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Old
03-29-2004, 01:24 PM
  #15
jadeddog
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shouldnt nashvilles number against us be 8?

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Old
03-29-2004, 01:40 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rabi_sultan
yeah the only thing that concerns me is Nashville's game in hand, fair enough they play the Blues but we ideally need them to drop a game outside of that one for the Oilers to have a great chance.
I hate to get excited about the prospect of the Oilers making the playoffs, but I have a feeling Nashville will choke and it could happen against Chicago. The pressure of going into a game they should win could be alot to handle for a young team like them.

But, hey, I could be wrong. They've earned alot of my respect this year and it's a team I've grown to like. There may just still be hard knocks to come though.

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Old
03-29-2004, 01:40 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog
shouldnt nashvilles number against us be 8?
No, because if Nashville goes 0-0-4 and Edmonton goes 1-2, Edmonton wins the wins tiebreaker (most wins). It is much easier this way as opposed to putting up all the magic numbers for all the different probabilities. If Nashville wins their next game, their magic number goes down 3, as opposed to 2.

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Old
03-29-2004, 03:16 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
No, because if Nashville goes 0-0-4 and Edmonton goes 1-2, Edmonton wins the wins tiebreaker (most wins). It is much easier this way as opposed to putting up all the magic numbers for all the different probabilities. If Nashville wins their next game, their magic number goes down 3, as opposed to 2.
Uh-oh...just when I thought I had a handle on this...

How does the magic number go down by 3 for a win over Chicago? If the Oilers beat St. Louis (in regulation), then the Preds' magic number (vs. the Oilers) should only go down by TWO, no? Their magic number vs. the Blues would go down by FOUR, of course.

Hmmm...too much brane-work for a Monday. Help!

Bart

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Old
03-29-2004, 03:53 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barto
Uh-oh...just when I thought I had a handle on this...

How does the magic number go down by 3 for a win over Chicago? If the Oilers beat St. Louis (in regulation), then the Preds' magic number (vs. the Oilers) should only go down by TWO, no? Their magic number vs. the Blues would go down by FOUR, of course.

Hmmm...too much brane-work for a Monday. Help!

Bart
lol... it's kinda complicated, but here it goes.

If Nashville goes 0-0-4 they've picked up 4 points. If Edmonton goes 1-2, they've lost 4 (2 losses x 2 points which is a magic number of 8). If this were to happen, Edmonton would win the tie breaker because they would have more wins (both would have 89 points). However, if Nashville goes 1-1-2 and Edmonton goes 1-2, Nashville still picks up their 4 points (2 wins and a tie) and Edmonton still loses 4 points, leaving both with 89 points. Both teams would be tied in wins, so the next tie breaker is head to head, which Nashville wins.

So in the end, if Nashville goes 0-0-4, they need Edmonton to lose 5 points (which is a magic number of 9, nashville wins 4 points, Edmonton loses 5). If Nashville goes 1-1-2, they need Edmonton to lose 4 points (which is a magic number of 8).

If Nashville played tonight, and they tied 1-1, their magic number against Edmonton would fall from 9 to 8 (because they trail in the tiebreaker). If they win it falls from 9 to 6 (because they lead the tie breaker).


Last edited by dawgbone: 03-29-2004 at 04:00 PM.
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Old
03-29-2004, 04:16 PM
  #20
Digger12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
lol... it's kinda complicated, but here it goes.

If Nashville goes 0-0-4 they've picked up 4 points. If Edmonton goes 1-2, they've lost 4 (2 losses x 2 points which is a magic number of 8). If this were to happen, Edmonton would win the tie breaker because they would have more wins (both would have 89 points). However, if Nashville goes 1-1-2 and Edmonton goes 1-2, Nashville still picks up their 4 points (2 wins and a tie) and Edmonton still loses 4 points, leaving both with 89 points. Both teams would be tied in wins, so the next tie breaker is head to head, which Nashville wins.

So in the end, if Nashville goes 0-0-4, they need Edmonton to lose 5 points (which is a magic number of 9, nashville wins 4 points, Edmonton loses 5). If Nashville goes 1-1-2, they need Edmonton to lose 4 points (which is a magic number of 8).

If Nashville played tonight, and they tied 1-1, their magic number against Edmonton would fall from 9 to 8 (because they trail in the tiebreaker). If they win it falls from 9 to 6 (because they lead the tie breaker).
When life gets this complicated, I grab a snickers bar.

Hopefully the Oilers go 3-0-0 to render all of this moot.

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Old
03-29-2004, 04:50 PM
  #21
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Thanks, dawgbone... I get it enough that my head stopped spinning! The tie-breaker deal is the wild-card that was screwing up the ability to keep it (fairly) simple.

Whew!

Yes, it would help a lot if the Oilers would just win the next three!!

Bart

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Old
03-30-2004, 08:02 AM
  #22
dawgbone
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Team name, Oilers magic number vs them, their games remaining and their magic number vs the Oilers.

Calgary Flames, 10, 3, 3
St. Louis Blues, 9, 4, 7
Nashville Predators*, 7, 4, 9
L.A. Kings*, 0, 3, 14

Calgary 0, 0 - DNP
St. Louis 0, 0 - DNP
Nashville 0, 0 - DNP
L.A. -2, 0 loss to Colorado

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03-31-2004, 10:19 AM
  #23
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Team name, Oilers magic number vs them, their games remaining and their magic number vs the Oilers.

Calgary Flames, 10, 3, 1
St. Louis Blues, 9, 3, 3
Nashville Predators*, 7, 3, 4
L.A. Kings*, 0, 3, 14

Calgary 0, -2 - DNP
St. Louis 0, -4 - W vs Edmonton (crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap, crap)
Nashville 0, -5 - W vs Chicago (extra -1 for now officially owning the tie breaker).

Really crappy night last night... Calgary and St. Louis are pretty much in, Nashville is Edmonton's only hope. Edmonton cannot lose another game.

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04-01-2004, 11:02 AM
  #24
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Team name, Oilers magic number vs them, their games remaining and their magic number vs the Oilers.

Calgary Flames, 10, 2, 0
St. Louis Blues, 7, 3, 3
Nashville Predators*, 5, 3, 4
L.A. Kings*, 0, 3, 14

Calgary -2, -2 - Officially in. Edmonton cannot catch them
St. Louis -2, 0 - DNP
Nashville -2, 0 - DNP

Gutcheck time!

Edmonton needs to win and Nashville has to lose 1 regulation game and get either a tie or an OTL in the other game.

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04-02-2004, 09:22 AM
  #25
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Team name, Oilers magic number vs them, their games remaining and their magic number vs the Oilers.

Calgary Flames, 10, 2, 0
St. Louis Blues, 5, 2, 2
Nashville Predators*, 5, 2, 2
L.A. Kings*, 0, 3, 14

St. Louis -2, 0 - Lost to Detroit
Nashville 0, -2 - Won vs Chicago

Saturday is a big day...

No OT loses, that would suck, but a tie means that we'd need one of them to lose (in regulation), where as if one team won, we'd only be able to cheer against one team (a loss, OT loss or Tie would do it).

Edmonton has to beat Vancouver though.


Last edited by dawgbone: 04-02-2004 at 09:27 AM.
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