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Alex Semin (with conditions)

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Old
05-30-2009, 04:09 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Alex28 View Post
Because it's better used elsewhere. I guess if it's used on Grabovski then he'd be our long-term 2nd line center and drafting Josefsson/Kadri/Palmieri/O'Reilly is no longer a priority.

Taking advantage though means getting more than just Grabovski back for a package with it.
we need a second line centre anyways and teams dont always make the right choices at the draft day but we know what we're getting with grobovski we're getting r-ape THATS RIGHT R-APE

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05-30-2009, 04:57 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
Caps fans have been reluctantly discussing the possibility of Semin being moved this offseason. Some Caps fans are very much opposed to this idea (hi Alex28), but some feel it may be necessary as a vehicle for diversifying our assets and dumping salary.

So I am curious to hear what people think their teams (or other teams) would be willing to offer for a young point per game goal-scorer like Semin.

But here are the two caveats:

#1: Assume for the sake of this thread that any deal for Semin will involve the team that takes Semin also taking either Chris Clark (1 year left at $2.633m) or Brian Pothier (1 year left at $2.5m) back as well. Semin makes $4.6m so, when added with the salary dump, that's roughly $7.2m in salary coming your way.

#2: The Caps will NOT take back your bad contracts. The Caps must emerge from the trade with considerable added cap space. Since $7.2m is going out, a good bit less than that has to be coming back to Washington.

Given those criteria, can anyone come up with anything? Two-way deal? Three-way deal? If it helps, the Caps are willing to move any of their 2009 picks as well as the rights to some interesting RFAs (Shaone Morrisonn, Eric Fehr) to help facilitate a deal if needed.

Just looking for some creative ideas that aren't totally absurd.
Semin is injury prone. You forgot to mention that which lowers his value.

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05-30-2009, 05:45 AM
  #103
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hey OP, what do you think:

ask for one really good player for Semin instead of 2 or more. What I mean is get a player back that's as good as Semin. People often say, and it seems like it's true - the team that gets the best player comes out ahead.

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05-30-2009, 10:58 AM
  #104
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To Wsh: Weber and Sullivan

To Nsh : Semin

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05-30-2009, 11:06 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by theBIG4 View Post
To Wsh: Weber and Sullivan

To Nsh : Semin
You honestly think Nashville does that? I sure don't.

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05-30-2009, 11:06 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by orangeshinpads View Post
hey OP, what do you think:

ask for one really good player for Semin instead of 2 or more. What I mean is get a player back that's as good as Semin. People often say, and it seems like it's true - the team that gets the best player comes out ahead.
It only makes sense if the other good player is cheap and we can also dump salary. That's my whole contention in this thread. A one-for-one deal doesn't do much for us because we're too close to the cap with too many spots to fill.

There are a few exceptions, but most players of Semin's quality make more than Semin does. Moreover, teams who have those players, to the extent they have any interest in tradng them at all, are certainly not interest in a cap dump.

Trade Semin for an equivalent defensemen of similar salary or greater salary, and while we have filled one need, we have opened up a need for another top-6 RW. And we have equal or less cap space to fix our remaining issues. If that's the best alternative, I'd rather just keep Semin, who is a great player and we know fits our team like a glove.

You are absolutely right when you say that the team that gets the best player usually is considered to have 'won' the trade. But the Caps are in a funny position here. We have 4 point-per-game players on our roster. It's an incredible luxury that allows us to consider making a trade which seems like we 'lose', but which frees up the cap space we need to add depth to our roster and avoid turning into the 2008-2009 Ottawa Senators. So, while many people who aren't thinking about the details of our cap situation (or who have bizarre man-crushes on Alex Semin) are perplexed by why some Caps fans would support a seemingly mediocre return for Semin, as I've said a few times, it's all about cap flexibility. The gained ability to make a trade for or sign a contributing player is close to the same thing as getting that caliber of player back in the original trade itself. So, while sending Semin for Milan Hejduk and Oscar Moller, or Kevin Bieksa, Michael Grabner and a pick sounds like pretty paltry return for an elite player, I look at it like I am trading Alex Semin to get those players plus the freedom to address our needs at #2 RW, #2 C, #3/4 D, #5/6D. Without moving Semin, we can probably only touch one of those needs given our cap situation.

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05-30-2009, 11:12 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by theBIG4 View Post
To Wsh: Weber and Sullivan

To Nsh : Semin
Not happening. I would go so far as Semin and Carlson for Weber. Don't know if Nashville bites on Semin at all though.

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05-30-2009, 11:33 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
It only makes sense if the other good player is cheap and we can also dump salary. That's my whole contention in this thread. A one-for-one deal doesn't do much for us because we're too close to the cap with too many spots to fill.

There are a few exceptions, but most players of Semin's quality make more than Semin does. Moreover, teams who have those players, to the extent they have any interest in tradng them at all, are certainly not interest in a cap dump.

Trade Semin for an equivalent defensemen of similar salary or greater salary, and while we have filled one need, we have opened up a need for another top-6 RW. And we have equal or less cap space to fix our remaining issues. If that's the best alternative, I'd rather just keep Semin, who is a great player and we know fits our team like a glove.

You are absolutely right when you say that the team that gets the best player usually is considered to have 'won' the trade. But the Caps are in a funny position here. We have 4 point-per-game players on our roster. It's an incredible luxury that allows us to consider making a trade which seems like we 'lose', but which frees up the cap space we need to add depth to our roster and avoid turning into the 2008-2009 Ottawa Senators. So, while many people who aren't thinking about the details of our cap situation (or who have bizarre man-crushes on Alex Semin) are perplexed by why some Caps fans would support a seemingly mediocre return for Semin, as I've said a few times, it's all about cap flexibility. The gained ability to make a trade for or sign a contributing player is close to the same thing as getting that caliber of player back in the original trade itself. So, while sending Semin for Milan Hejduk and Oscar Moller, or Kevin Bieksa, Michael Grabner and a pick sounds like pretty paltry return for an elite player, I look at it like I am trading Alex Semin to get those players plus the freedom to address our needs at #2 RW, #2 C, #3/4 D, #5/6D. Without moving Semin, we can probably only touch one of those needs given our cap situation.
The problem with this line of thinking is, we don't need a top 6 forward that's as expensive as Semin if we trade him, but if we want to have a real impact on D then the Dman probably is going to be that expensive. If you want to be cap neutral, then simply trade Semin for a Dman of similar cap hit if a deal can be worked out, then move someone like Mo (or, if you can find a taker, Pothier) and look towards a forward that's less than 3 mil, presumably via trade as that's not a totally realistic FA signing.

If you're losing Semin you should be thinking long term. Hejduk isn't close to an upgrade over Semin and isn't here for any longer, and I don't know that Moller is a good enough extra piece to justify the downgrade.

Bieksa wouldn't be a bad target, I agree there, as he's someone you can keep long term. Same with one of Nashville's young D if they'd be receptive to a deal, and lots of others depending on who's interested.

Simply put, I think this team needs to take some of the money it's invested in its forwards and start investing it in the D. If you're trading Semin that's the prime place to start, because he's the only piece we have that could bring in a legitimate long-term solution on the D (other than drafting them of course).

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05-30-2009, 11:51 AM
  #109
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To Wsh: Weber and Sullivan

To Nsh : Semin, Nylander and a 3rd

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05-30-2009, 11:52 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by theBIG4 View Post
To Wsh: Weber and Sullivan

To Nsh : Semin, Nylander and a 3rd
That's considerably worse for the Preds than your original deal. If only Poile were stupid enough to accept.

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05-30-2009, 11:58 AM
  #111
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Volchenkov/Phillips + Foligno + pick

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05-30-2009, 12:32 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
The problem with this line of thinking is, we don't need a top 6 forward that's as expensive as Semin if we trade him, but if we want to have a real impact on D then the Dman probably is going to be that expensive. If you want to be cap neutral, then simply trade Semin for a Dman of similar cap hit if a deal can be worked out, then move someone like Mo (or, if you can find a taker, Pothier) and look towards a forward that's less than 3 mil, presumably via trade as that's not a totally realistic FA signing.

If you're losing Semin you should be thinking long term. Hejduk isn't close to an upgrade over Semin and isn't here for any longer, and I don't know that Moller is a good enough extra piece to justify the downgrade.

Bieksa wouldn't be a bad target, I agree there, as he's someone you can keep long term. Same with one of Nashville's young D if they'd be receptive to a deal, and lots of others depending on who's interested.

Simply put, I think this team needs to take some of the money it's invested in its forwards and start investing it in the D. If you're trading Semin that's the prime place to start, because he's the only piece we have that could bring in a legitimate long-term solution on the D (other than drafting them of course).
Until and unless you're willing to assign a proper value on cap space, we're never going to see eye to eye. The beauty of the Bieksa deal isn't just re-assigning salary to defense. That's only half of it. It's filling a need, gaining two trade chips, and freeing up $3.4m in cap space. This isn't any different than any of the other offers I've come up with. It's just grabbing the D directly and then going hunting for offense, instead of grabbing the offense and then going hunting for D. The whole point is using the cap space we gain from the trade to re-distribute salary to areas of need.

I don't disagree that we may have to spend big to fill defensive needs. But don't you see the difference between trading for Kubina after we have added a ton of cap space and have fewer needs vs. making effectively a one-for-one trade while doing nothing to address other areas of the lineup and then hoping we can finagle trades for multiple cheap, top-6/top-4 players? The order matters, and the ordering issue isn't positional, its salary.

Oh, and Hejduk being a UFA after next seaosn is not a negative to me. It means we have the flexibility to re-sign or free up $4m in cap space if the cap shrinks and (after the Backstrom re-signing), we decide that we need to spend the money differently.

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05-30-2009, 12:39 PM
  #113
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One thing to keep in mind with regards to a Bieksa for Semin swap, the only way I can see the Canucks entertaining the idea of moving Bieksa is if they sign one of JayBo or Scott Niedermayer, both very lofty goals. And if they do sign one of those guys they are going to be forking over a lot of cash to do so. In that case, I'm not sure if a move to send Bieksa($3.75M) for Semin($4.6M) and Clark($2.633M) is feasible at all. Bieksa for Semin alone might put a crunch on the cap for the Canucks assuming the Sedins are re-signed so I don't really see anyway they can take on the further expense of Clark and the two year remaining on his deal.

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05-30-2009, 01:05 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
Until and unless you're willing to assign a proper value on cap space, we're never going to see eye to eye. The beauty of the Bieksa deal isn't just re-assigning salary to defense. That's only half of it. It's filling a need, gaining two trade chips, and freeing up $3.4m in cap space. This isn't any different than any of the other offers I've come up with. It's just grabbing the D directly and then going hunting for offense, instead of grabbing the offense and then going hunting for D. The whole point is using the cap space we gain from the trade to re-distribute salary to areas of need.

I don't disagree that we may have to spend big to fill defensive needs. But don't you see the difference between trading for Kubina after we have added a ton of cap space and have fewer needs vs. making effectively a one-for-one trade while doing nothing to address other areas of the lineup and then hoping we can finagle trades for multiple cheap, top-6/top-4 players? The order matters, and the ordering issue isn't positional, its salary.

Oh, and Hejduk being a UFA after next seaosn is not a negative to me. It means we have the flexibility to re-sign or free up $4m in cap space if the cap shrinks and (after the Backstrom re-signing), we decide that we need to spend the money differently.
I do see the value of cap space, but it's only good if you're using it or holding it for something. Right now we've got Fedorov and Kozlov out (or, at least, Fedorov cheaper). That's between 4 and 6.5 mil freed up, with probably only one spot to fill (if Nylander stays he's filling Fedorov's spot, if he doesn't then cap concerns are diminished greatly). Then figure you use Semin to acquire a better Dman, someone with more than one year. Bieksa gives you 2 years and saves you almost a mil on the cap. Someone like Suter would would save a bit more, and you could go on and on depending on who you target. Figure you save ~1 mil or pay an extra ~.5 mil in any Semin-for-D swap. Then figure you trade Mo or let him walk (or trade Pothier if you can find someone), and that saves you another ~2 mil.

So you're shedding Kozlov, Semin, maybe Fedorov, and Mo or Pothier (presumably) while adding a young Dman and at least Bourque or Aucoin. You're gaining enough cap space to add a top-6 forward (either a cheap-ish FA signing or via trade, perhaps in the deal involving Mo) and to cover raises to Schultz, Juice, and Fehr (and I guess Bourque, although I don't know what he's in for). You have a longer term core Dman to help build around without having to deal with a huge FA contract on the back end. And you should still have enough space at the deadline (especially since you wouldn't be working on LTIR exemptions) if you need to make any last minute additions. '10-'11 flexibility comes from losing Theodore and having the ability to lose Nylander more easily (not to mention losing Pothier if he's still here and possibly trying to move Clark).

You still have a respectible top 6 with Ovie, Backstrom, probably Flash and Fehr or Bourque, and whatever FA/trade addition (most likely in addition to Nylander, but perhaps retaining Fedorov still). You have a huge improvement on D with the new addition, and the effects last longer term. And you'd still have Carlson and Alzner and the ability to work them in (losing Pothier/Mo, eventually dropping Jurcina, etc.).

I actually like the Bieksa idea, if any needs to be done, for exactly this reason. You free up cap space and you add a solid Dman with more than one year left. The top 6 suffers, but it's easier to find a top 6 line caliber forward than it is a top 3 caliber Dman.

And, of course, I'm not in the "Semin must be traded boat" unless he clearly shows he's going to be priced out of our range this offseason.

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05-30-2009, 02:19 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA View Post
Until and unless you're willing to assign a proper value on cap space, we're never going to see eye to eye. The beauty of the Bieksa deal isn't just re-assigning salary to defense. That's only half of it. It's filling a need, gaining two trade chips, and freeing up $3.4m in cap space. This isn't any different than any of the other offers I've come up with. It's just grabbing the D directly and then going hunting for offense, instead of grabbing the offense and then going hunting for D. The whole point is using the cap space we gain from the trade to re-distribute salary to areas of need.

I don't disagree that we may have to spend big to fill defensive needs. But don't you see the difference between trading for Kubina after we have added a ton of cap space and have fewer needs vs. making effectively a one-for-one trade while doing nothing to address other areas of the lineup and then hoping we can finagle trades for multiple cheap, top-6/top-4 players? The order matters, and the ordering issue isn't positional, its salary.

Oh, and Hejduk being a UFA after next seaosn is not a negative to me. It means we have the flexibility to re-sign or free up $4m in cap space if the cap shrinks and (after the Backstrom re-signing), we decide that we need to spend the money differently.
You're overvaluing cap space tremendously.

Right now, as things stand, we've got 6.5 million cap space freed from Kozlov and Fedorov. Those

Right now we need cap space to sign Semin and Backstrom.

What you're proposing is dumping an elite, Rick Nash level player with some 2.5 million contract that plays like a 1.25 million contract ending after next year dropping the trade's value. That's just horrible, horrible asset management. I could see if you were using Semin to entice someone into taking Redden and Horcoff if they were on your team, but honestly. Clark? Pothier? Both of those could be waived and we wouldn't have to lose. Theodore could be waived as well. Why do we need so much cap space? Is Backstrom getting a 10 million a year contract or have I missed something? If Semin is worth getting an average return for just to dump 2.5 million, lets just move Ovechkin and his 9.5 million.

It's pretty clear what happens if we make those cap space based moves. We end up using that money to tremendously overpay someone like Cammalleri after a year with no secondary scoring.

Seriously, what is so wrong with good regular season and playoff performers?

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05-30-2009, 02:22 PM
  #116
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One thing to keep in mind with regards to a Bieksa for Semin swap, the only way I can see the Canucks entertaining the idea of moving Bieksa is if they sign one of JayBo or Scott Niedermayer, both very lofty goals. And if they do sign one of those guys they are going to be forking over a lot of cash to do so. In that case, I'm not sure if a move to send Bieksa($3.75M) for Semin($4.6M) and Clark($2.633M) is feasible at all. Bieksa for Semin alone might put a crunch on the cap for the Canucks assuming the Sedins are re-signed so I don't really see anyway they can take on the further expense of Clark and the two year remaining on his deal.
Considerably more than Bieksa would have to be coming back. Semin has about as many regular season points as the Sedins and is the same PPG in these playoffs.

Bieksa + Hodgson for Semin + Morrisson + 2nd I'd consider fair value, but no way vancouver ever does that

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05-30-2009, 02:57 PM
  #117
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You're overvaluing cap space tremendously.

Right now, as things stand, we've got 6.5 million cap space freed from Kozlov and Fedorov. Those

Right now we need cap space to sign Semin and Backstrom.

What you're proposing is dumping an elite, Rick Nash level player with some 2.5 million contract that plays like a 1.25 million contract ending after next year dropping the trade's value. That's just horrible, horrible asset management. I could see if you were using Semin to entice someone into taking Redden and Horcoff if they were on your team, but honestly. Clark? Pothier? Both of those could be waived and we wouldn't have to lose. Theodore could be waived as well. Why do we need so much cap space? Is Backstrom getting a 10 million a year contract or have I missed something? If Semin is worth getting an average return for just to dump 2.5 million, lets just move Ovechkin and his 9.5 million.

It's pretty clear what happens if we make those cap space based moves. We end up using that money to tremendously overpay someone like Cammalleri after a year with no secondary scoring.

Seriously, what is so wrong with good regular season and playoff performers?
No, he's really not. It's possible that the cap gets as low as $50 million for the 2010-2011 season. As of right now, the Caps have 10-12 (depending on who's in the minors) players signed for somewhere around $33 million to $34 million, and that's without Backstrom or Semin signed to extensions. So that would leave around $17 million for 10-12 players. It'll be damn tight if the Caps don't rid themselves of some salary.

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05-30-2009, 03:18 PM
  #118
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Considerably more than Bieksa would have to be coming back. Semin has about as many regular season points as the Sedins and is the same PPG in these playoffs.

Bieksa + Hodgson for Semin + Morrisson + 2nd I'd consider fair value, but no way vancouver ever does that
Replace Morrisonn with Carlson and Gustafsson.

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05-30-2009, 03:33 PM
  #119
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No, he's really not. It's possible that the cap gets as low as $50 million for the 2010-2011 season. As of right now, the Caps have 10-12 (depending on who's in the minors) players signed for somewhere around $33 million to $34 million, and that's without Backstrom or Semin signed to extensions. So that would leave around $17 million for 10-12 players. It'll be damn tight if the Caps don't rid themselves of some salary.
Then we waive Theodore, Clark, Pothier, trade Morrisson and get cheaper replacements for Fedorov and Kozlov.

The possibility of the cap falling is a bad reason to ship out a star player and a bad contract for mediocre return.

It's like people don't see how bad our offense would become without him. We'd be like Ottawa except with worse secondary scoring.

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05-30-2009, 03:34 PM
  #120
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Also if Nylander is bought out after next year it only counts a million against the cap I believe. Maybe two. Either way we're not nearly in deep enough **** to entice people to take bad contracts with Semin. If we were NYR, maybe.

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05-30-2009, 03:37 PM
  #121
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Replace Morrisonn with Carlson and Gustafsson.
And I take Semin out as well?

I'd be willing to replace Morrisson with Gustafsson and Lepisto or Godfrey and downgrade the pick, but Carlson would stay. Vancouver should probably still take that deal. Their top 2 centers are set for a while with Sedins and Kesler. Semin would give them a great 1-2 punch down the middle.

If Sedins can't be resigned, then Vancouver and Washington are probably bad trading partners.

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05-30-2009, 03:37 PM
  #122
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Maybe Avs would be interested in shipping Wolski+ for Semin.

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05-30-2009, 03:39 PM
  #123
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I'm probably way off, but what about something centered around Semin for Pronger, with the salary dumps thrown in and whatever else to balance it?
NEVER going to happen... Pronger is one of the top 5 defensemen in the game...Semin is a top 10 forward at best...a top 5 defenseman is SIGNIFICANTLY more valuable than a top 10 forward...

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05-30-2009, 03:49 PM
  #124
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One thing to keep in mind with regards to a Bieksa for Semin swap, the only way I can see the Canucks entertaining the idea of moving Bieksa is if they sign one of JayBo or Scott Niedermayer, both very lofty goals. And if they do sign one of those guys they are going to be forking over a lot of cash to do so. In that case, I'm not sure if a move to send Bieksa($3.75M) for Semin($4.6M) and Clark($2.633M) is feasible at all. Bieksa for Semin alone might put a crunch on the cap for the Canucks assuming the Sedins are re-signed so I don't really see anyway they can take on the further expense of Clark and the two year remaining on his deal.
We could always bury Clark in the minors...

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05-30-2009, 03:49 PM
  #125
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Caps fans have been reluctantly discussing the possibility of Semin being moved this offseason. Some Caps fans are very much opposed to this idea (hi Alex28), but some feel it may be necessary as a vehicle for diversifying our assets and dumping salary.

So I am curious to hear what people think their teams (or other teams) would be willing to offer for a young point per game goal-scorer like Semin.

But here are the two caveats:

#1: Assume for the sake of this thread that any deal for Semin will involve the team that takes Semin also taking either Chris Clark (1 year left at $2.633m) or Brian Pothier (1 year left at $2.5m) back as well. Semin makes $4.6m so, when added with the salary dump, that's roughly $7.2m in salary coming your way.

#2: The Caps will NOT take back your bad contracts. The Caps must emerge from the trade with considerable added cap space. Since $7.2m is going out, a good bit less than that has to be coming back to Washington.

Given those criteria, can anyone come up with anything? Two-way deal? Three-way deal? If it helps, the Caps are willing to move any of their 2009 picks as well as the rights to some interesting RFAs (Shaone Morrisonn, Eric Fehr) to help facilitate a deal if needed.

Just looking for some creative ideas that aren't totally absurd.
Short of you taking a Toronto deal, only a complete moron is going to take Semin under these conditions...I don't mean to be offensive, but the most you could gain cap-wise is Semin's deal (unless it is from Toronto)...$7.2 million in cap space is a LOT on a 50 million dollar cap...

If you trade Semin with a dump, the only way you save 7.2 million is if the return is something like Tlusty and Finger (yeah, that sucks)...

Semin, by himself, will never get you 1 player, but he'd easily be worth something like Hodgson, Bieksa, and a mid-round pick...

The teams that have space to burn are those with little to no scoring depth (commonly referred to as rebuilding teams)

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