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Heatley to Colorado

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05-31-2009, 01:52 AM
  #51
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
This is ridiculous. Not trading a prospect for a young winger that is one of the top players in the league? Come on man. You hope your 3rd overall pick will be as good as Heatley.
Way to unimaginably dumb down the issue.

I guess every top 5 draft pick is worth as much as any above average-NHLer.

Duchene, like all draft picks, is a gamble. He could pan out to be better than Heatley, he could pan out to be as good, or he could not pan out at all (though from his scouting report that's less likely for Duchene than for other players) However, he's 10 years younger than Heatley and comes in with an ELC and then gets resigned as an RFA, which almost guarantees him to be cheaper than Heatley. There's a chance that he'll be a bust, but if he's not, Colorado is better off with him than with Heatley. Not to mention Heatley isn't exactly the type of player that drags you to the cup.

Colorado is rebuilding because they have no ****ing depth anymore and no prospect pool either.

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05-31-2009, 01:54 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Alex28 View Post
Way to unimaginably dumb down the issue.

I guess every top 5 draft pick is worth as much as any above average-NHLer.

Duchene, like all draft picks, is a gamble. He could pan out to be better than Heatley, he could pan out to be as good, or he could not pan out at all (though from his scouting report that's less likely for Duchene than for other players) However, he's 10 years younger than Heatley and comes in with an ELC and then gets resigned as an RFA, which almost guarantees him to be cheaper than Heatley. There's a chance that he'll be a bust, but if he's not, Colorado is better off with him than with Heatley. Not to mention Heatley isn't exactly the type of player that drags you to the cup.

Colorado is rebuilding because they have no ****ing depth anymore and no prospect pool either.

Referring to Heatley as an above average NHLer discredits any further argument you make.

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05-31-2009, 01:55 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
what? of course I would, any gm in the world would trade Schenn for Heatley. Im not sure if I understand you post Ive read it four times and Im still not clear on what youre getting at.

TOR: Heatley

OTT: Schenn
?????

YES!
ok i get it.....

heres my thing heatley will be 28 this year, and you dont really have a center to play with him to use him properly. he'd score 30- 35 goals of course but you still wouldnt make the playoffs for a few years, even if you did it would be borderline. he'd be 33 or so before youd get really good and by then he'd be slowing down. meanwhile schenn would be 24 and probably a regular all star.

isnt it better to have a team thats ready to win at the same time?

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05-31-2009, 01:56 AM
  #54
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Something to remember is that Heately over the past 6 years has been in the top 5 for points per game. Personally I don't think Colorado is that far off. They just need to shore up the goaltending and get another quality top 6. With a health Stastny and another top 6 they can return to form. The only thing that could do them in is injuries, which of course was a main reason for their fall from grace this past season.

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05-31-2009, 01:58 AM
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Referring to Heatley as an above average NHLer discredits any further argument you make.
Well that's your argument isn't it? Heatley is an established NHLer and Duchene is not.

Nevermind that Duchene wasn't given the chance yet.

How about this trade idea is revisited after Duchene gets a year in the NHL. It's not like he's missing out because of some flaws.

I see to remember Alexei Yashin being traded for a high pick and a player who was slow to develop (not that Heatley is Yashin, but one dimensional superstar is traded for good futures in both cases). How did that work out.

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05-31-2009, 02:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Sunfire View Post
Something to remember is that Heately over the past 6 years has been in the top 5 for points per game. Personally I don't think Colorado is that far off. They just need to shore up the goaltending and get another quality top 6. With a health Stastny and another top 6 they can return to form. The only thing that could do them in is injuries, which of course was a main reason for their fall from grace this past season.
You also forgot their defense, which this year was atrocious and has pretty much only 2 legitimate top 4 players. And is only getting older.

So, basically, they need a starting goalie, significant changes to the top 6 including a replacement for Sakic, and significant changes to their defense. And they finished 3rd worst in the league.

Yep, doesn't sound like a rebuild is in order at all.

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05-31-2009, 02:02 AM
  #57
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ok i get it.....

heres my thing heatley will be 28 this year, and you dont really have a center to play with him to use him properly. he'd score 30- 35 goals of course but you still wouldnt make the playoffs for a few years, even if you did it would be borderline. he'd be 33 or so before youd get really good and by then he'd be slowing down. meanwhile schenn would be 24 and probably a regular all star
I just dont get why so many people on this site put such an emphasis on a guys age. Kaberle is 31 and hes old, Heatly is 28 and he'll be old in a few years.

Not having a #1 centre is a big problem, but Heatley can probably score 40 goals playing with AHL players. He didnt do it this year, but the Sens had a real problem scoring goals until the Head Coach was changed, then they were one of the top scoring teams in the league. Saying Heatley would only get 30-35 goals on the Leafs is wrong. The Leafs are a good offensive team already without having big name players. Heatley would do great in Toronto.

So many people on here always talk about you gotta rebuild, and I understand that, but adding a guy like Heatley would advance that rebuild so much faster than hoping that your draft picks pan out.

Schenn for Heatley is a no brainer.

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05-31-2009, 02:03 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfire View Post
Something to remember is that Heately over the past 6 years has been in the top 5 for points per game. Personally I don't think Colorado is that far off. They just need to shore up the goaltending and get another quality top 6. With a health Stastny and another top 6 they can return to form. The only thing that could do them in is injuries, which of course was a main reason for their fall from grace this past season.
The Avs were hovering around .500 prior to the injuries. This team isn't a player away. They are old or inept at several important positions. This team needs an infusion of youth. I like Dany Heatley, but this isn't the right trade for Colorado at this time. The Avs need to get younger and shed salary.

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05-31-2009, 02:04 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Look at what I bolded. He wouldnt trade the 3rd overall for Heatley, come on. Classic overvaluing of picks, common on HFboards.
There is a financial aspect to the deal that must be strongly considered from the Avalanche contingent. Moreover, unsurprisingly, a lot of people are high on Matt Duchene. Overvaluing the pick? Maybe you'll be right ultimately, and probability certainly isn't on Colorado's side, but it's a bit much to dismiss that argument since the proponents of Duchene very well might be 'right' in the end.

Let's say he tops out as a 2nd liner, could the cap difference be enough to minimize the loss (in comparison to having traded for Heatley originally) due to some UFA, etc., addition made possible by the extra cap room? It wouldn't be ideal, nor the worst case scenario, but it'd be considered when evaluating the associated risk/rewards.

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05-31-2009, 02:06 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Alex28 View Post
Well that's your argument isn't it? Heatley is an established NHLer and Duchene is not.

Nevermind that Duchene wasn't given the chance yet.

How about this trade idea is revisited after Duchene gets a year in the NHL. It's not like he's missing out because of some flaws.

I see to remember Alexei Yashin being traded for a high pick and a player who was slow to develop (not that Heatley is Yashin, but one dimensional superstar is traded for good futures in both cases). How did that work out.
Well you can use the Yashin trade if you want but I bet there are tons of trades where top players are dealt for youth that never worked out. Gilmour trade? Flames fans still complain about that one. THere are tons.

You said: I guess every top 5 draft pick is worth as much as any above average-NHLer.

You referred to Heatley as an above average NHLer. Thats a very good way of dumbing down an elite winger.

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05-31-2009, 02:07 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
I just dont get why so many people on this site put such an emphasis on a guys age. Kaberle is 31 and hes old, Heatly is 28 and he'll be old in a few years.

Not having a #1 centre is a big problem, but Heatley can probably score 40 goals playing with AHL players. He didnt do it this year, but the Sens had a real problem scoring goals until the Head Coach was changed, then they were one of the top scoring teams in the league. Saying Heatley would only get 30-35 goals on the Leafs is wrong. The Leafs are a good offensive team already without having big name players. Heatley would do great in Toronto.

So many people on here always talk about you gotta rebuild, and I understand that, but adding a guy like Heatley would advance that rebuild so much faster than hoping that your draft picks pan out.

Schenn for Heatley is a no brainer.
ok bro. as i said I know you know your stuff so i cant question you, your one of the sharpest leaf fans I know, but id be lying if I didnt say im surprised

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05-31-2009, 02:08 AM
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
I just dont get why so many people on this site put such an emphasis on a guys age. Kaberle is 31 and hes old, Heatly is 28 and he'll be old in a few years.

Not having a #1 centre is a big problem, but Heatley can probably score 40 goals playing with AHL players. He didnt do it this year, but the Sens had a real problem scoring goals until the Head Coach was changed, then they were one of the top scoring teams in the league. Saying Heatley would only get 30-35 goals on the Leafs is wrong. The Leafs are a good offensive team already without having big name players. Heatley would do great in Toronto.

So many people on here always talk about you gotta rebuild, and I understand that, but adding a guy like Heatley would advance that rebuild so much faster than hoping that your draft picks pan out.

Schenn for Heatley is a no brainer.
So Heatley can score 40 with AHL players but couldn't do it with Spezza and Alfredsson while getting like way more icetime than the average 1st liner throughout the year.

Yeah, that makes sense.

And teams that have elite wingers without comparable center complements get killed in the playoffs even if they get there, since all the opposition then has to do is aggressively double-team them. So I guess Toronto would just go back to square one.

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05-31-2009, 02:10 AM
  #63
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There is a financial aspect to the deal that must be strongly considered from the Avalanche contingent. Moreover, unsurprisingly, a lot of people are high on Matt Duchene. Overvaluing the pick? Maybe you'll be right ultimately, and probability certainly isn't on Colorado's side, but it's a bit much to dismiss that argument since the proponents of Duchene very well might be 'right' in the end.

Let's say he tops out as a 2nd liner, could the cap difference be enough to minimize the loss (in comparison to having traded for Heatley originally) due to some UFA, etc., addition made possible by the extra cap room? It wouldn't be ideal, nor the worst case scenario, but it'd be considered when evaluating the associated risk/rewards.
At the end of the day teams are going to have to dish out money for players. If you are constantly taking into consideration the cap and keeping it low then you will always be a cheap, mediocore team. YOu pay the top guys top money. HEatley gets top money because hes a top player. Look at the Oilers in the years before the cap. They were constantly letting go of top players because they couldnt afford to pay them. THis would be the same situation if you continually take into consideration not paying a player because you dont want to use up your cap space.

Cap space is great, but its worthless if you never actually use it up.

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05-31-2009, 02:14 AM
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Well you can use the Yashin trade if you want but I bet there are tons of trades where top players are dealt for youth that never worked out. Gilmour trade? Flames fans still complain about that one. THere are tons.

You said: I guess every top 5 draft pick is worth as much as any above average-NHLer.

You referred to Heatley as an above average NHLer. Thats a very good way of dumbing down an elite winger.
Exactly. It goes both ways. However some can consider

Avalanche are doing this so they become a consistent playoff threat with cup aspirations. Bringing in Heatley and having a completely unbalanced team as a result could make them respectable in the regular season but puts their chance at getting to the conference or Stanley Cup Finals at close to zero. They could always just sign Cammalleri for 5.5 million and hope that getting 30-35 goals from him plus retaining Duchene would offset getting 40-45 goals from Heatley (for which he'd be paid 2 million more).

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05-31-2009, 02:16 AM
  #65
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So Heatley can score 40 with AHL players but couldn't do it with Spezza and Alfredsson while getting like way more icetime than the average 1st liner throughout the year.

Yeah, that makes sense.

And teams that have elite wingers without comparable center complements get killed in the playoffs even if they get there, since all the opposition then has to do is aggressively double-team them. So I guess Toronto would just go back to square one.
Well after the coaching change the Sens became I beleive the 3rd highest scoring team. You have to beleive that Heatley, being their number 1 scorer, would have scored at a higher rate after the change, thus on that pace probably would have reached 50. This is just speculation, but it makes sense.

Not having a top cetre is a big deal, but look at the sharks, they have one of the top centres in the league and they still get killed in the playoffs. So thats not exactly the soundest argument.

It takes a well rounded team to succeed, but not taking a guy like Heatley because he's only a winger would be ridiculous

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05-31-2009, 02:18 AM
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
At the end of the day teams are going to have to dish out money for players. If you are constantly taking into consideration the cap and keeping it low then you will always be a cheap, mediocore team. YOu pay the top guys top money. HEatley gets top money because hes a top player. Look at the Oilers in the years before the cap. They were constantly letting go of top players because they couldnt afford to pay them. THis would be the same situation if you continually take into consideration not paying a player because you dont want to use up your cap space.

Cap space is great, but its worthless if you never actually use it up.
Or, you can evaluate the 3rd overall pick with a rough career projection based on current mental and physical attributes, determine the near-term savings would be superb due to the entry level contract, USE that extra cap space to address a weakness elsewhere, have the player develop and gradually grow stronger, and potentially eclipse the position that trading would've landed the team else wise.

If the player does actually become 1st line quality, then great! You can pay him and get what was anticipated quality wise. If not, you still spend the difference elsewhere. Maybe not quite the quality of Heatley, but something that is not too shabby either. Does that make a mediocre team? Questionable, depends on how the cap space is used.

Also, let's face the fact that Colorado is not going to be a contender soon. By the time that pick has fully developed, he might be in his prime when the team needs him the most...and he'd have a longer career ahead of him left presumably.

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05-31-2009, 02:22 AM
  #67
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Exactly. It goes both ways. However some can consider

Avalanche are doing this so they become a consistent playoff threat with cup aspirations. Bringing in Heatley and having a completely unbalanced team as a result could make them respectable in the regular season but puts their chance at getting to the conference or Stanley Cup Finals at close to zero. They could always just sign Cammalleri for 5.5 million and hope that getting 30-35 goals from him plus retaining Duchene would offset getting 40-45 goals from Heatley (for which he'd be paid 2 million more).
Well this whole argument came when I pointed out that someone said they woudnt trade the 3rd for Heatley alone. The OP is a different situation. It could possibly make you an unbalanced team, giving up a top dman prospect as well. Im still waiting for Wolski to show his brilliance.

You could sign Cammalleri, but will you? Will a UFA sign with a bottom dwelling team for 5.5, talk is thats his minimum, so you gotta think the Avs might have to pay a little more.

Regardless, my bone to pick was that a poster said they wouldnt trade the 3rd for Heatley.

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05-31-2009, 02:23 AM
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alex. like I said Mcphllp isnt a dummy, he makes his points. we wouldnt do it his way probably but hes right too that you need bullets to do damage. believe me I've talked to him long enough that I know he knows his stuff

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05-31-2009, 02:23 AM
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Counter Proposal:

Sens:
Elliot
Volchenkov
9th Overall

Col:
Hejduk

C'mon, Hejduk has scored 50 goals before...

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05-31-2009, 02:27 AM
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Counter Proposal:

Sens:
Elliot
Volchenkov
9th Overall

Col:
Hejduk

C'mon, Hejduk has scored 50 goals before...
very well done

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05-31-2009, 02:31 AM
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Originally Posted by The Budaj Bugatti View Post
Or, you can evaluate the 3rd overall pick with a rough career projection based on current mental and physical attributes, determine the near-term savings would be superb due to the entry level contract, USE that extra cap space to address a weakness elsewhere, have the player develop and gradually grow stronger, and potentially eclipse the position that trading would've landed the team else wise.

If the player does actually become 1st line quality, then great! You can pay him and get what was anticipated quality wise. If not, you still spend the difference elsewhere. Maybe not quite the quality of Heatley, but something that is not too shabby either. Does that make a mediocre team? Questionable, depends on how the cap space is used.

Also, let's face the fact that Colorado is not going to be a contender soon. By the time that pick has fully developed, he might be in his prime when the team needs him the most...and he'd have a longer career ahead of him left presumably.

ya you can do all of this. but its a gamble right? its not like heatley is 35 years old and has 1 year left on his contract. 5 more years after this season, thats a very long time. You know what you're getting.

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05-31-2009, 02:41 AM
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
ya you can do all of this. but its a gamble right? its not like heatley is 35 years old and has 1 year left on his contract. 5 more years after this season, thats a very long time. You know what you're getting.
Definitely. It may be one worth taking, or maybe not depending upon the perspective/thought process.

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05-31-2009, 02:55 AM
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Avs give up a good young forward who has shown signs of brilliance but is far from an impact player, a prospect who has at least 2 years of college left, and an unknown draft pick (assumed to be Duchene) who definately wont be an impact player for at least a couple seasons.

Heatley was and still is a star and one of the better goal scorers in the league. For the next 2 or 3 years he'll be better than all 3 assets the Avs gave up combined. After that, probably not so much. This seems to me similar to when the Avs traded a huge package for Blake, or when Dallas traded a young prospect in Iginla for Niewendyke. It's a great trade in the fact that you're bringing in a star impact player at the present while losing virtually nothing.

But the Avs arent a contender now or in three years. They need to add a starting goalie, a first line player, two top pairing defensemen, and a good third line centre. They have very little cap space to do this too.

This is a good trade in terms of value, but not for a team like the Avs.

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05-31-2009, 10:04 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
I just dont get why so many people on this site put such an emphasis on a guys age. Kaberle is 31 and hes old, Heatly is 28 and he'll be old in a few years.

Not having a #1 centre is a big problem, but Heatley can probably score 40 goals playing with AHL players. He didnt do it this year, but the Sens had a real problem scoring goals until the Head Coach was changed, then they were one of the top scoring teams in the league. Saying Heatley would only get 30-35 goals on the Leafs is wrong. The Leafs are a good offensive team already without having big name players. Heatley would do great in Toronto.

So many people on here always talk about you gotta rebuild, and I understand that, but adding a guy like Heatley would advance that rebuild so much faster than hoping that your draft picks pan out.

Schenn for Heatley is a no brainer.
When your team is in a rebuild, age matters! Trading a high pick, a roster player and a prospect sounds a lot like the price of a rental player, not something a terrible team gives up! I hope the Avs have learned from their mistakes and just keep the 3rd overall, especially because it is considered a big 3 now. Duchene, Hedman or Tavares would be far more beneficial in the LONG RUN than any current superstar.

Adding Heatley would not help the rebuild at all. It is really that simple. Keep the pick, Wolski and the prospect (was it Shattenkirk?) and they are a better team for it.

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05-31-2009, 10:12 AM
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Heatley is not a rental

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