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PK vs. SHG

View Poll Results: Pick One
Option A 23 74.19%
Option B 8 25.81%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-30-2009, 12:57 PM
  #1
Mr Oysterhead
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PK vs. SHG

Alright, so I've got a hypothetical question to hopefully help pass some time. Which of these two options would you prefer (Assume this is an NHL team you are coaching for the 2009-10 season, not necessarily the Flyers)

Option A: PK% 93 and 0 SHG

Option B:
PK% 70 and 35 SHG

PK Stats
2008-09: 1st. NYR (87.8%, 40 PPGA) 30th. TOR (74.7%, 78 PPGA)
2007-08: 1st. SJS (85.8%, 44 PPGA) 30th. LAK (78.0%, 68 PPGA)
2006-07: 1st. VAN (86.9%, 57 PPGA) 30th. LAK (77.9%, 91 PPGA)
2005-06: 1st. MIN (87.4%, 55 PPGA) 30th. LAK (78.7%, 104 PPGA)

SHG Stats
2008-09: 1st. PHI (16) 30th. DAL (2)
2007-08: 1st. OTT (18) 30th. COL (2)
2006-07: 1st. OTT/MTL (17) 30th. DAL/TOR (3)
2005-06: 1st. OTT (25) 30th. NJD (3)

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Old
05-30-2009, 01:24 PM
  #2
Ex Storm
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Option A. The first priority of the PK is to keep the puck out.

With Option A, you're roughly looking at a differential of -30 on the PK. Option B, it's more like -60 to -100 depending on how many penalties you take (and given the percentages you've used and some guessing on my part).

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Old
05-30-2009, 01:27 PM
  #3
Clown Baby
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A good penalty kill will be there for all seven games of a seven game series.

Winner.

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Old
05-30-2009, 02:08 PM
  #4
phlocky
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It really depends, I mena if we only give up 50 PP's against then at 70% that's only 15 goals against on the PK, if we can get 35 shorties and only give up 15 PP goals against then that's actually a possitive for us. However, if we give up 200 PP's against then at 93% that's only 14 goals against. That same 200 PP's against at only 70% would be 60 goals against and with scoring 35 shorties that's a net of 25 goals in the negatve on the PK, so the 93% would be a better option. I chose to believe that it's more likely we have 200 PP's against as opposed to only 50 against so I too chose option A. Like Storm said, the promary objective of the PK is to keep the puck out of your own net.

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Old
05-30-2009, 03:11 PM
  #5
mm6492
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OPTION A

Especially with how we take penalties


I would be very happy with like 85-90% with about 20-25 SHG

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Old
05-30-2009, 04:45 PM
  #6
CantSeeColors
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Whichever one is a better difference. Depends on how many penalties you take. If by some freak occurrence a team only kills 70% of their penalties, but only takes 100 (30 GA) and scores 35 shorties, that's a clear winner in my book. Basically, whichever way gives a better result in GA - GF is what I want (which is basically never accomplished by scoring a lot of shorties I wouldn't think).

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Old
05-30-2009, 07:37 PM
  #7
Mr Oysterhead
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I'm voting B because it has no love and I really can't decide

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Old
05-30-2009, 10:42 PM
  #8
UseYourAllusion
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I voted A. But I don't think that SHG and PK% are necessarily mutually exclusive.

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Old
05-31-2009, 10:06 PM
  #9
CanadianFlyer88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
Whichever one is a better difference. Depends on how many penalties you take. If by some freak occurrence a team only kills 70% of their penalties, but only takes 100 (30 GA) and scores 35 shorties, that's a clear winner in my book. Basically, whichever way gives a better result in GA - GF is what I want (which is basically never accomplished by scoring a lot of shorties I wouldn't think).
100 times shorthanded is barely over one powerplay to the opposition per game.

PK% is much more important than creating offensive opportunities while shorthanded.

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Old
06-01-2009, 06:57 AM
  #10
1865
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mm6492 View Post
OPTION A

Especially with how we take penalties


I would be very happy with like 85-90% with about 20-25 SHG

I'm pretty sure 30 NHL sides would be deliriously happy with that.

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Old
06-01-2009, 09:46 AM
  #11
CantSeeColors
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianFlyer88 View Post
100 times shorthanded is barely over one powerplay to the opposition per game.

PK% is much more important than creating offensive opportunities while shorthanded.
You're comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare a percentage to a hard number.

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Old
06-01-2009, 11:04 AM
  #12
CanadianFlyer88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
You're comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare a percentage to a hard number.
Your example was ridiculous. Minnesota was shorthanded 291 times in 2008/09 and that was the lowest amount in the NHL (The low in 07/08 was 301, 06/07 was 271, 05/06 was 348). I'll take a 93% PK% on that amount of penalty kills or more every time.

If we start seeing a trend of one powerplay per team per game, then we can start looking at your example as a legitimate comparison.

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Old
06-01-2009, 11:26 AM
  #13
mm6492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon View Post
I'm pretty sure 30 NHL sides would be deliriously happy with that.
I normally expect perfection, but I will let it slide here

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Old
06-01-2009, 12:37 PM
  #14
CantSeeColors
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianFlyer88 View Post
Your example was ridiculous. Minnesota was shorthanded 291 times in 2008/09 and that was the lowest amount in the NHL (The low in 07/08 was 301, 06/07 was 271, 05/06 was 348). I'll take a 93% PK% on that amount of penalty kills or more every time.

If we start seeing a trend of one powerplay per team per game, then we can start looking at your example as a legitimate comparison.
My example wasn't meant to be realistic, just easy math. It's still not impossible though, and therein lies the problem with comparing a percentage to a hard number.

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Old
06-01-2009, 12:57 PM
  #15
CanadianFlyer88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
My example wasn't meant to be realistic, just easy math. It's still not impossible though, and therein lies the problem with comparing a percentage to a hard number.
The OP was talking about next season, though. Based on previous seasons since the lockout and the fact that there will not be any major changes when it comes to enforcing penalties next season, the 93% PK% is clearly the best option, hard number or not.

If a team is shorthanded 300 times next year (which was near the bottom in each of the previous two seasons), then a 93% PK and no shorthanded goals scored is a net of 21 goals against. A 70% PK and 35 shorthanded goals scored is a net of 55 goals against. Bump the number of shorthanded situations to 400 (closer to the Flyers' total in each of the last two seasons) and you get net totals of 28 goals against and 85 goals against, respectively. Pretty easy choice for me.

You're right that a hard number isn't always the best option but, put into the context of the current NHL and the likelihood of similar results next season, the hard number wins this time.

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Old
06-01-2009, 01:03 PM
  #16
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scoring on the PK creates a TON of momentum. i dont think you can really quantify that.

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Old
06-01-2009, 04:15 PM
  #17
CantSeeColors
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianFlyer88 View Post
The OP was talking about next season, though. Based on previous seasons since the lockout and the fact that there will not be any major changes when it comes to enforcing penalties next season, the 93% PK% is clearly the best option, hard number or not.

If a team is shorthanded 300 times next year (which was near the bottom in each of the previous two seasons), then a 93% PK and no shorthanded goals scored is a net of 21 goals against. A 70% PK and 35 shorthanded goals scored is a net of 55 goals against. Bump the number of shorthanded situations to 400 (closer to the Flyers' total in each of the last two seasons) and you get net totals of 28 goals against and 85 goals against, respectively. Pretty easy choice for me.

You're right that a hard number isn't always the best option but, put into the context of the current NHL and the likelihood of similar results next season, the hard number wins this time.
He's also talking about a kill rates of 70% and 93%, which are just as unreasonable to assume as a team taking 100 penalties. I understand the point of the question, but if we're throwing reality out the window in one context we might as well do it in all contexts.

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Old
06-01-2009, 04:57 PM
  #18
CanadianFlyer88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
He's also talking about a kill rates of 70% and 93%, which are just as unreasonable to assume as a team taking 100 penalties. I understand the point of the question, but if we're throwing reality out the window in one context we might as well do it in all contexts.


Toronto finished the season with a PK% of 74.7% this year and 78.1% last year, so a 70% PK% isn't nearly as absurd as a team only having to kill 100 penalties over 82 games.

Even if Option 2 suggested an 80% penalty kill, I would still choose Option 1.

93% PK and no SHG on 400 penalties: net 28 goals against
80% PK and 35 SHG on 400 penalties: net 45 goals against

93% PK and no SHG on 300 penalties: net 21 goals against
80% PK and 35 SHG on 300 penalties: net 25 goals against

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Old
06-01-2009, 05:23 PM
  #19
mm6492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
scoring on the PK creates a TON of momentum. i dont think you can really quantify that.
Getting scored upon can kill momentum, and a great PK can also boost momentum.

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Old
06-02-2009, 12:57 AM
  #20
CantSeeColors
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianFlyer88 View Post


Toronto finished the season with a PK% of 74.7% this year and 78.1% last year, so a 70% PK% isn't nearly as absurd as a team only having to kill 100 penalties over 82 games.

Even if Option 2 suggested an 80% penalty kill, I would still choose Option 1.

93% PK and no SHG on 400 penalties: net 28 goals against
80% PK and 35 SHG on 400 penalties: net 45 goals against

93% PK and no SHG on 300 penalties: net 21 goals against
80% PK and 35 SHG on 300 penalties: net 25 goals against
Now bring that 93% down to something in the realm of plausible and you're going to start seeing some pretty similar numbers. Look, I voted for #1 too, but it's not cut and dry the winner every time.

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Old
06-03-2009, 10:37 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
A good penalty kill will be there for all seven games of a seven game series.

Winner.


Option A from me.

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Old
06-09-2009, 01:59 PM
  #22
Sawdalite
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I selected 'A'

... But I have to say that Option 'B' would in my mind be highly unlikely, unless my thinking is totally off base... If a team would be scoring shorties at such a clip, one would think that the opposition would be more cautious, and with that score less on the PP. A team in that situation, that has only a 70% kill rate, would have to be dreadful... or else be gambling so much that they leave themselves far too vulnerable.

I understand that the question is purely for discussion, but I find the numbers mind boggling.

Needless to say, I want a team that keeps the opposing PP on guard against the SHG and therefore has a real good kill rate... even if the shorties are not quite at such a gaudy scale.

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