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Toronto - St Louis

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Old
05-29-2009, 10:11 AM
  #1
Mojo19
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Toronto - St Louis



Tomas Kaberle



1st Round 2009 (16th pick)
Brett Sonne



The St Louis PP was anemic in the playoffs this season. They have a great up and coming team with a ton of youngsters with talent. The backend will feature players like Johnson and Pietrangelo as anchors for many years. But they lack a veteran puckmover to feed their skilled forwards like Boyes, Oshie, Berglund, Perron, etc. Kaberle fits the bill, and the budget since St Louis has committed $45M and probably only needs to sign another role player or two.

The Leafs get a mid round pick and a decent... but not blue-chip... prospect for Kaberle. Sonne is a big body with tenacity. He can skate and hit, which is the type of character player the Leafs need to begin building around. And he also has some offensive upside too, so best case scenario he could be a 2nd liner and worst case scenario he will make a great grinder.

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05-29-2009, 10:21 AM
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Sterling31
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If thats all we could get for Kabs, then i probably would think bout it.
with the 16th this year...i would hope to get one of Kassian/Ellis/Glennie to complement our top 10

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05-29-2009, 10:22 AM
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seanlinden
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Like I've said every time you've proposed the same deal..... it flat-out isn't worth it for Toronto. Players like Sonne are a dime a dozen (even if they do pan out) and the player drafted at 16 will not project to be better than Tomas Kaberle.

For Toronto, its a risk with ZERO reward.

From St. Louis, it doesn't make a lot of sense either. They've got Johnson coming back, McKee already in the lineup, and Brewer & Jackman who aren't terrible with the puck. Throw Pietrangelo on the 3rd pair and they'll be fine for the immidiate future.

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05-29-2009, 10:31 AM
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Mojo19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfried View Post
Like I've said every time you've proposed the same deal..... it flat-out isn't worth it for Toronto. Players like Sonne are a dime a dozen (even if they do pan out) and the player drafted at 16 will not project to be better than Tomas Kaberle.

For Toronto, its a risk with ZERO reward.

From St. Louis, it doesn't make a lot of sense either. They've got Johnson coming back, McKee already in the lineup, and Brewer & Jackman who aren't terrible with the puck. Throw Pietrangelo on the 3rd pair and they'll be fine for the immidiate future.
You overrate Tomas Kaberle.

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05-29-2009, 10:36 AM
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Cool Hand Luke
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Originally Posted by jfried View Post
Like I've said every time you've proposed the same deal..... it flat-out isn't worth it for Toronto. Players like Sonne are a dime a dozen (even if they do pan out) and the player drafted at 16 will not project to be better than Tomas Kaberle.

For Toronto, its a risk with ZERO reward.

From St. Louis, it doesn't make a lot of sense either. They've got Johnson coming back, McKee already in the lineup, and Brewer & Jackman who aren't terrible with the puck. Throw Pietrangelo on the 3rd pair and they'll be fine for the immidiate future.
A player drafted at 204th wouldn't either...Oh...wait.

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05-29-2009, 10:38 AM
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grabo84
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Originally Posted by Mojo027 View Post
You overrate Tomas Kaberle.
He had a pretty reasonable post. What you said will be popular around here, but that doesn't make it true.

Anyways, the proposal is a bit hard to value. Sonne is obviously breaking out to some degree, but I'm suspicious about anybody breaking out as an overage player in the WHL. The 16th is a good pick, but I'd want a different prospect coming back, or failing that, a young roster player added.

A prospect like McRae, Allen or Cole would be who I'd want with the first if its just a first and prospect.

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05-29-2009, 10:55 AM
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seanlinden
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Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke View Post
A player drafted at 204th wouldn't either...Oh...wait.
That player drafted at 204 already is.

You don't trade a proven #1 defenceman for a player who projects to be a #3 forward or defenceman (which is what you'll get in the middle of the first round)

#1 Defenceman > #3 Forward
Proven > Project

If the Blues are unwilling to give up one of Oshie, Boyes, Backes, Berglund or Eller in a deal for Kaberle; then there's no deal to be discussing.

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05-29-2009, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfried View Post
That player drafted at 204 already is.

You don't trade a proven #1 defenceman for a player who projects to be a #3 forward or defenceman (which is what you'll get in the middle of the first round)

#1 Defenceman > #3 Forward
Proven > Project

If the Blues are unwilling to give up one of Oshie, Boyes, Backes, Berglund or Eller in a deal for Kaberle; then there's no deal to be discussing.
the Blues are better off just staying the course...

they get their best defender back next season in EJ... and have 2 recent 1st round picks in dmen Pietrangelo and Cole developing as well - both considered to be high probability to make the NHL, and the former is still considered a stud prospect who could be an impact dman.

I don't think that STL needs to do much, other than just stay the course and continue their development... the team is stacked with young talent.

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05-29-2009, 11:14 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfried View Post
That player drafted at 204 already is.

You don't trade a proven #1 defenceman for a player who projects to be a #3 forward or defenceman (which is what you'll get in the middle of the first round)

#1 Defenceman > #3 Forward
Proven > Project

If the Blues are unwilling to give up one of Oshie, Boyes, Backes, Berglund or Eller in a deal for Kaberle; then there's no deal to be discussing.
Dude, you post some of the stupidest things I've ever read. I'm a Leaf fan but you seem to look at things in a bubble. Assuming your projections are correct you entirely miss very obvious things like:

a) Kaberle has 2 years left on his contract after that anyone can have him for nothing
b) The Leafs aren't going to win anything in those 2 years
c) Kaberle has a cap hit that impacts each team in different ways and getting rid of that cap hit has some value
d) the pick and the prospects get an entry level deal which impacts each team in different ways
e) 10 years from now a current 18 year old or prospect will be hitting his peak, Kaberle will be long gone
etc
etc
etc

Value isn't measured straight up based on current skill level or even projected skill level. Value is ALWAYS relative to the situation of both teams. Stop doing what you are doing it's embarrassing.

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05-29-2009, 11:14 AM
  #10
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I'd probably take this deal if I was Blues GM...and since I'm very leery of trading away 1st round picks, that probably means the Leafs could do better.

Getting a player of Kaberle's caliber would be huge. It could mean the difference between hoping (realistically) for a return to the playoffs and to possibly win a round or two, and a ~100 point season and being amongst the 6-8 teams considered real Cup contenders.
Kaberle/Jackman
Johnson/Polak - - - - is a pretty nice D, and even better if Brewer is good to go next season.
Pietrangelo/McKee

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05-29-2009, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666 View Post
Dude, you post some of the stupidest things I've ever read. I'm a Leaf fan but you seem to look at things in a bubble. Assuming your projections are correct you entirely miss very obvious things like:

a) Kaberle has 2 years left on his contract after that anyone can have him for nothing
b) The Leafs aren't going to win anything in those 2 years
c) Kaberle has a cap hit that impacts each team in different ways and getting rid of that cap hit has some value
d) the pick and the prospects get an entry level deal which impacts each team in different ways
e) 10 years from now a current 18 year old or prospect will be hitting his peak, Kaberle will be long gone
etc
etc
etc

Value isn't measured straight up based on current skill level or even projected skill level. Value is ALWAYS relative to the situation of both teams. Stop doing what you are doing it's embarrassing.
Are you trying to suggest that losing Kaberle's cap hit would help the Leafs? And really, arguing that he's only signed for two years is beyond stupid. Two years is an eternity, and puts absolutely zero pressure on the Leafs to deal him. A rebuild isn't a license to trade away veteran players for peanuts, even if they won't be around to help once we're ready to compete (which I don't think is true of Kaberle).

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05-29-2009, 11:38 AM
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Mojo19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfried View Post
That player drafted at 204 already is.

You don't trade a proven #1 defenceman for a player who projects to be a #3 forward or defenceman (which is what you'll get in the middle of the first round)

#1 Defenceman > #3 Forward
Proven > Project

If the Blues are unwilling to give up one of Oshie, Boyes, Backes, Berglund or Eller in a deal for Kaberle; then there's no deal to be discussing.
Um dude.....

Oshie was picked at #24 in the 2005 Draft.
Boyes was picked at #24 in the 2000 Draft.
Berglund was picked at #25 in the 2006 Draft.
Eller was picked at #13 in the 2007 Draft.

oh yeah and Backes........ he was a LATE SECOND pick in 2003.

I guess since all of those guys were drafted in the mid-late 1st Round..... they must all project to be a #3 forward?

Do you realize how valuable those kinds of picks can be? There is just as much chance as Glennie/Holland/Ashton, or anyone the Leafs could pick at #16, turning out to be as good as any of those guys you mentioned...

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05-29-2009, 11:41 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mojo027 View Post
Um dude.....

Oshie was picked at #24 in the 2005 Draft.
Boyes was picked at #24 in the 2000 Draft.
Berglund was picked at #25 in the 2006 Draft.
Eller was picked at #13 in the 2007 Draft.

oh yeah and Backes........ he was a LATE SECOND pick in 2003.

I guess since all of those guys were drafted in the mid-late 1st Round..... they must all project to be a #3 forward?

Do you realize how valuable those kinds of picks can be? There is just as much chance as Glennie/Holland/Ashton, or anyone the Leafs could pick at #16, turning out to be as good as any of those guys you mentioned...
You're right, lets trade the #7 straight up for the #24th!

Yeah, the player in those spots could be as good as Kaberle, but the likeliness of the Leafs picking that talent is slim.

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05-29-2009, 11:42 AM
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I would make this deal though the salary might be a problem. We definitely lack transition from the defenseman. I don't think you can rely on basically two rookies in Johnson and Pietrangelo to fix it. Who knows what will happen with Brewer. If things look good, maybe buyout McKee.

Kaberle/Johnson
Jackman/Brewer
McKee/Pietrangelo

Ian Cole isn't going anywhere (most likely). He's our McKee replacement for next year.

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Old
05-29-2009, 11:45 AM
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seanlinden
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Originally Posted by 666 View Post
Dude, you post some of the stupidest things I've ever read. I'm a Leaf fan but you seem to look at things in a bubble. Assuming your projections are correct you entirely miss very obvious things like:

a) Kaberle has 2 years left on his contract after that anyone can have him for nothing
b) The Leafs aren't going to win anything in those 2 years
c) Kaberle has a cap hit that impacts each team in different ways and getting rid of that cap hit has some value
d) the pick and the prospects get an entry level deal which impacts each team in different ways
e) 10 years from now a current 18 year old or prospect will be hitting his peak, Kaberle will be long gone
etc
etc
etc

Value isn't measured straight up based on current skill level or even projected skill level. Value is ALWAYS relative to the situation of both teams. Stop doing what you are doing it's embarrassing.
a) Kaberle has been a lifetime Leaf and has expressed a strong desire to stay. Good chance we can get him to sign a career-ending contract at a big discount next offseason.
b) He's 31 years old, he's problably got another quality 7 years left.
c) There is no value in getting rid of a #1 defenceman who costs $4.25million. The cost to replace him would be significantly higher
d) Entry level for 3 years while they are going through rookie struggles. Then you're stuck paying them close to market value.
e) 10 years from now we'll have 9 other years of draft picks who could be around. 10 years from now that player we drafted could be gone as a UFA.

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05-29-2009, 11:47 AM
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seanlinden
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Originally Posted by Mojo027 View Post
Um dude.....

Oshie was picked at #24 in the 2005 Draft.
Boyes was picked at #24 in the 2000 Draft.
Berglund was picked at #25 in the 2006 Draft.
Eller was picked at #13 in the 2007 Draft.

oh yeah and Backes........ he was a LATE SECOND pick in 2003.

I guess since all of those guys were drafted in the mid-late 1st Round..... they must all project to be a #3 forward?

Do you realize how valuable those kinds of picks can be? There is just as much chance as Glennie/Holland/Ashton, or anyone the Leafs could pick at #16, turning out to be as good as any of those guys you mentioned...
They all surpassed expectations and have proven to be NHL players while others drafted around them aren't. When you're dealing with the draft, you've gotta factor in probability of actually reaching potential. Sure Glennie/Holland/Ashton COULD become just as good as those guys, but they could also become just as good as Luca Cereda.

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05-29-2009, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by jfried View Post
They all surpassed expectations and have proven to be NHL players while others drafted around them aren't. When you're dealing with the draft, you've gotta factor in probability of actually reaching potential. Sure Glennie/Holland/Ashton COULD become just as good as those guys, but they could also become just as good as Luca Cereda.
That's the problem of the team taking in the pick, not the team trading it away.

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05-29-2009, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by jfried View Post
a) Kaberle has been a lifetime Leaf and has expressed a strong desire to stay. Good chance we can get him to sign a career-ending contract at a big discount next offseason.
b) He's 31 years old, he's problably got another quality 7 years left.
c) There is no value in getting rid of a #1 defenceman who costs $4.25million. The cost to replace him would be significantly higher
d) Entry level for 3 years while they are going through rookie struggles. Then you're stuck paying them close to market value.
e) 10 years from now we'll have 9 other years of draft picks who could be around. 10 years from now that player we drafted could be gone as a UFA.
a-b) Kaberle's trade value will not get any higher. Those quality 7 years will be lower quality for sure. Simple fact is the only thing anyone is guaranteed is that he will be around for 2 more years. That's it.
c) he has already been replaced by Schenn or Stralman (in the future) because the Leafs don't need him to miss the playoffs again while others can use him now.
d) yes you only get entry level for 3 but you are guaranteed 7 before UFA not 2.
e) as said before, 2 years from now Kabs could be gone for nothing and will most probably be on the downswing of his career.

In summary, the Leafs don't need Kabs next year. Others do. You can have your choice of Kabs for 2 more probably not very successful years. Or a very strong pick and a hopefully a pretty strong prospect for 7 years or so. Simple choice for me.

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05-29-2009, 12:05 PM
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seanlinden
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Originally Posted by Reverse Flying V View Post
That's the problem of the team taking in the pick, not the team trading it away.
Thats why no team should trade proven talent for just a pick like that.

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05-29-2009, 12:10 PM
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a-b) Kaberle's trade value will not get any higher. Those quality 7 years will be lower quality for sure. Simple fact is the only thing anyone is guaranteed is that he will be around for 2 more years. That's it.
c) he has already been replaced by Schenn or Stralman (in the future) because the Leafs don't need him to miss the playoffs again while others can use him now.
d) yes you only get entry level for 3 but you are guaranteed 7 before UFA not 2.
e) as said before, 2 years from now Kabs could be gone for nothing and will most probably be on the downswing of his career.

In summary, the Leafs don't need Kabs next year. Others do. You can have your choice of Kabs for 2 more probably not very successful years. Or a very strong pick and a hopefully a pretty strong prospect for 7 years or so. Simple choice for me.
a) Its not about trade value.....its about which players you want on your team. At $4.25 million for the next 2, and some sort of discount following (we will know in a years time); I'll take Kaberle over a 16th overall picl.

C) Schenn is the team's most inept puck mover. Stralman can't even break into the top 6 and was surpassed on the depth chart by the likes of Harrison, Sifers & Oreskovic.

d) 7 years is a realistic scenario for Kaberle.

e) If Kaberle decides he's going to leave as a UFA, then you trade him for the best return (like Antropov or potentially Kubina this offseason) We are not at that point yet. Therefore, it only makes sense to trade Kaberle for a deal that makes HOCKEY SENSE.

f) The Leafs do need Kaberle this year and into the future. He's our #1 defenceman and will need to be replaced if we move him. He's a piece of this team to win with.

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05-29-2009, 12:19 PM
  #21
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Thats why no team should trade proven talent for just a pick like that.
When you are rebuilding mid-first round picks are extremely valuable. With that said the initial offer probably isn't quite enough. Maybe bump the prospect up to a little better one maybe someone like Ian Cole...

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05-29-2009, 12:23 PM
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seanlinden
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Originally Posted by is the answer jesus View Post
When you are rebuilding mid-first round picks are extremely valuable. With that said the initial offer probably isn't quite enough. Maybe bump the prospect up to a little better one maybe someone like Ian Cole...
Of course they're valuable; but not over superior players that can be integral parts of the building process

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05-29-2009, 12:30 PM
  #23
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from an outsiders perspective, I don't really see the need for the Leafs to deal Kaberle to begin with... he has 2 yrs left on his contract and considering his history with the Leafs, will no doubt re-sign if he's still wanted there... and he's a bargain at his current cap hit as well.

He will also provide valuable veteran experience for a young team... you can't just go with a roster full of young players and hope that everyone develops well.

Finally, this isn't 10 years ago anymore... with the way FA is - with younger players and the number of options available every season, rebuilding isn't a 3-5 year process like it used to be... Toronto could very easily ice a playoff team as early as next year, if they pick up the right pieces in FA... they do have some assets already there (such as Kaberle) to challenge with.

And even if they can't do it next year, Kaberle still has another year on his deal, and the Leafs will get another offseason to continue trying to build that contender... I can't see them still in rebuilding mode 2 yrs from now, when they could still have Kaberle on the last year of his deal and a team that could be a playoff contender.

If I'm the Leafs, the guy I move is Kubina... especially if they can land a guy like JBo in FA. Everything though depends on what happens after July 1st... I wouldn't dismiss the Leafs chances of icing a playoff team by the time the season starts next year though... FA just provides too many options, and the Leafs have always been a desirable destination for free agents.

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05-29-2009, 12:35 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by is the answer jesus View Post
When you are rebuilding mid-first round picks are extremely valuable. With that said the initial offer probably isn't quite enough. Maybe bump the prospect up to a little better one maybe someone like Ian Cole...
There's no way you're getting Cole and a 1st for two years of Kaberle. If the Blues are stepping up in that ballpark of cost adding a bit going for Pronger is a drastically better option. Waiting a year not trading any assets and signing Pronger is even better than that.

This is regardless of the fact that if we're dealing for Kaberle a d-man not named EJ, Pie or Polak is going back to Toronto.

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05-29-2009, 01:15 PM
  #25
Mojo19
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Originally Posted by jfried View Post
Of course they're valuable; but not over superior players that can be integral parts of the building process
Hard to influence the next crop of players when that crop is no where to be found in the farm.

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