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Scouts: not a big drop off between 3-5

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06-17-2009, 10:34 AM
  #26
cdnhky1
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Originally Posted by Rabid Ranger View Post
The one unique talent I see in this draft is Hedman. Is there really that much of differance between the 2-15 player? I don't see it. Shoot, Jeremy Morin's finishing ability is on par with Tavares and he's a bubble guy for the first round.
I'm not a big stats guy, but it's hard to ignore the 54 goals a season Tavares has averaged over the 4 seasons he's played in the OHL. I don't think Morin, or any other prospect in this draft for that matter, possesses anything close to the finishing ability that Tavares possesses. If Hedman is unique for his package of size and skill certainly Tavares is unique for his ability to score year after year when no one else has stats that are comparable over the long haul.

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Old
06-17-2009, 10:36 AM
  #27
Konk
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Originally Posted by james bond View Post
What ever happenend to Jeremy "the jet" Morin?
That's an old nickname from when he played with the Syracuse Stars in the EJHL. He doesn't fly like a jet, but the boy sure does launch rockets like one.

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Old
06-17-2009, 11:11 AM
  #28
Rabid Ranger
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Listen folks, I'm not saying Jeremy Morin (or any other American since that's the issue here) is in Tavares' class as a prospect. All I'm saying is dividing up the first round into concrete tiers might not be such an easy exercise.

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Old
06-17-2009, 11:23 AM
  #29
speeds
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Originally Posted by sbtatter View Post
I've seen Glennie and Schenn play over 80 times each, trust me, Schenn is the man carrying the load there. Glennie's going to be good, but he's no Schenn.
Schenn is the undisputed leader of the WK's and he's only 17.....
I'm wondering if youcan help explain the statistical difference between the linemates, because I'm wondering where it might come from? Situational usage for Schenn?

Glennie posted 70 pts in 55 games, +22, while Schenn put up 88 pts in 70 games, +20. Very similar PPG. Glennie has the better +/-, and +/- per game, but that wouldn't strike me as surprising on the face of it since I thought they were playing together and it wouldn't be surprising if Schenn's numbers decreased a little bit while he wasn't playing with Glennie. But they didn't.

Glennie was injured for February and a chunk of March. During the 16 games Glennie missed*, Schenn recorded 9/14/23 pts, +6.

Until Glennie was hurt, their totals were:

Schenn 22G 39A 61 pts, +14
Glennie27G 39A 66 pts, +22

So we know that Glennie had slightly better numbers than Schenn while they were both healthy and, presumably, playing together much of the time.

Schenn's numbers actually got better without Glennie, so Schenn "proved" he can play without Glennie while Glennie never proved he could play without. Then again, 16 games is not exactly the biggest sample size.

*-other than that stretch, Glennie missed 1 other game, and Schenn missed 2 games last season.

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Old
06-17-2009, 11:46 AM
  #30
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I see Tavares/Hedman then Duchene/Schenn/Kane/MPS/Cowen with Duchene clearly the best of that group.

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06-17-2009, 11:54 AM
  #31
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Just listening to Stan Butler on the FAN590, he says that Tavares has the explosive offense, will score within 15 ft. while Duchene is a complete 2 way player who doesn't have THAT level of offense...doesn't have the hands of Tavares.

The vibe I get is Duchene is the safe pick at 3, and Schenn might have slightly bigger potential in offense and emotional jam.

and if I may go off the board here and say I like that Schenn is a Leo, when you look at the fact that Crosby, Malkin, Parise are also Leos

and so often they desperately want to be the king...

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06-17-2009, 11:57 AM
  #32
DuklaNation
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Ive seen Schenn & Glennie play. IMO Glennie has higher offensive upside. Schenn is a solid player but lacks those elite skills in the various areas of offense. In terms of NHL, I'd rather have Schenn as he would have a bigger impact in all areas. Fantasy wise, they are pretty even though.

Kadri,I've seen a couple of times in the playoffs and he really impressed me. This guy has a lot of upside. Needs to get stronger and play a little smarter. If he falls to #15, its a steal.

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Old
06-17-2009, 12:01 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by ACCBlue View Post
Just listening to Stan Butler on the FAN590, he says that Tavares has the explosive offense, will score within 15 ft. while Duchene is a complete 2 way player who doesn't have THAT level of offense...doesn't have the hands of Tavares.

The vibe I get is Duchene is the safe pick at 3, and Schenn might have slightly bigger potential in offense and emotional jam.

and if I may go off the board here and say I like that Schenn is a Leo, when you look at the fact that Crosby, Malkin, Parise are also Leos

and so often they desperately want to be the king...
Few young prospects have had or will have Tavares's hands. Duchene has an excellent wrist shot, but he has been too unselfish in shooting the puck at times. The coaches voted Duchene as the best playmaker and best stickhandler in the OHL's Eastern Conference. His hands are very good.

The major concern with Schenn has always been that his offensive upside in the NHL is questionable. Some believe that he may be a 3rd line center in the NHL with some offensive pop.

It is doubtful that scouts view Schenn as having a higher offensive upside than Duchene. Otherwise, Schenn probably would be a clear No. 3 in this draft, especially considering his other attributes.

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Old
06-17-2009, 01:19 PM
  #34
BIG BLUE
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Schenn goes 4th or 5th probably, so I doubt the GMs are seeing a 3rd line center there.

sure he may become Rob Niedermayer...which is fine...

but his numbers are similar in junior to Duchene, and they both had a great playoff...

so Duchene may only get to a younger Craig Conroy level of offense, just as easily as Schenn becomes a Rob Niedermayer.

but I think its more likely both become 1st or 2nd line centers...

the reason I think Butler said Duchene doesn't have Tavares' offensive upside is, Duchene has awesome speed, so you'd think he'd have more goals a la Stamkos...

so is he Max Afinogenov when he goes in alone?

BTW, I'd be ecstatic if the Leafs can move up for either guy

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06-17-2009, 01:54 PM
  #35
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I don't know if there are any substantial drops in the first half of the first round. Yes, Tavares and Hedman are the best players out there, and they have franchise potential. And Duchesne has elite player potential. But in the grand scheme of things, will there be a big drop-off from those three to Kane, Schenn, Cowan, Schroeder, Ellis, the assortment of talented players coming out of Sweden, or other fine young talents projected for the lottery selections? (The top 14)? No. It's a deep draft, an excellent draft, and every team with a lottery selection will get an excellent player they can build a franchise around. In a few cases, they'll get franchise players.

I don't think this draft is as good as last draft. I'm not sure if Tavares will be as good as Stamkos down the road. I definitely don't think Hedman will be as good as Doughty. (Not a knock on Hedman, it's just that Doughty has a better ceiling). But if you're drafting in the lottery picks (the tirst 14 selections), you're going to get a guy with first line/No. 1 defenceman/high-end second line/high-end No. 2 defenceman potential.

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Old
06-17-2009, 02:03 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DuklaNation View Post
Ive seen Schenn & Glennie play. IMO Glennie has higher offensive upside. Schenn is a solid player but lacks those elite skills in the various areas of offense. In terms of NHL, I'd rather have Schenn as he would have a bigger impact in all areas. Fantasy wise, they are pretty even though.

Kadri,I've seen a couple of times in the playoffs and he really impressed me. This guy has a lot of upside. Needs to get stronger and play a little smarter. If he falls to #15, its a steal.
Kadri's got fantastic play-making abilities but he needs to put forth a more dedicated effort when he's on the ice. I saw him play against the Frontenacs in Kingston in (I believe March) and he was a complete non-factor on the ice for the Knights. He's got a boatload of talent and sees the ice as well as anyone, but he does need to ramp up the intensity level and stop being such a perimeter player. He reminded me a lot like Craig Janney watching him.

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