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High First Round Picks

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Old
06-18-2009, 08:55 AM
  #1
seanlinden
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High First Round Picks

Lately I've seen a lot of proposals involving 1 player straight up for high 1st round picks.... from Pittsburgh fans saying that they wouldn't trade Letang for anything less than a top2 pick; to Leaf fans saying they wouldn't trade Kaberle for anything less than a top10 pick in this year's draft. I'm posting this thread to clarify why the chances of seeing any trade in this realm are non-existent for the most part.

1. You will almost never see a high pick moved before the draft for a veteran player. The draft is one week before free agency starts (4 days this year but its usually earlier). There is no incentive for a team to part with a significant portion of the future when they can sign the same type of player in free agency.

2. The value of a first round pick. If you've got a high first round pick, you have a chance at a player that will develop into an elite forward. Tavares may improve his skating when he needs to (much like Spezza did) and become better than Ovechkin. Hedman may be smarter than he's shown and decide he wants to become aggressive defensively and become the next Nik Lidstrom / Chris Pronger. Matt Duchene could be the next Joe Sakic. Evander Kane & Brayden Schenn could be the next elite skilled power forward. MPS could become the next Peter Forsberg on the wing. Jared Cowen could be the next Chris Pronger.

However, none of those things are guarantees to happen; and if they do pan out it'll be a couple years away. To trade an established player for that really makes very little sense. In my 2 examples which sparked this thread....Toronto could only hope that one of these guys pans out to be better than Tomas Kaberle as opposed to the alternative of locking him up for the rest of his career; and chances are that the pick will not pan out to be better. Of course the difference is that after 7 years you've still got a player; but trying to plan for 7 years ahead when you don't even know if it'll be an NHL player is completely ridiculous.

In the other example, you've got Letang who is already a top 4 defenceman at a young age with the upside to maybe be a #2 if he keeps improving. The top 3's balance of potential/likelyhood to reach it is problably more valuable than him. He would problably slot into the 4-7 range as when you balance the high end potential of those 4 guys with their likelyhood of reaching certain levels, it would be equivalent to Letang's potential as a #2 along with the fact that he'll be no less than a #4.

3. By far the most important, The teams involved. These teams have high draft picks because they need them. They aren't one good player away from being contenders. They are perhaps one GREAT player (which they're not going to get for one of their picks unless it is the prospect himself) or a package of players that turns their franchise around. If a team like Colorado gives up thier pick; they are going to want a young first line forward, second line forward and a #1 goaltender. That would cripple a team.

Meanwhile, the teams with assets to trade are for the most part good teams. They aren't in a position to trade proven talent for the hope that a guy might be better than what they give up in a few years.

If anything moves early in the first round, it'll be moves up & down.... if star players move it'll be after free agency for packages of 3-4 assets from good teams.

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06-18-2009, 09:01 AM
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grabo84
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Nothing's absolute. If a team likes another player and wants to move out of the draft they'll make a deal. Tampa dealt a top five pick for Ruslan Fedotenko and a couple of 2nds, and it worked out pretty well for them.

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06-18-2009, 09:05 AM
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Letang for a TOP 2 pick?

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06-18-2009, 10:57 AM
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makes sense

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06-18-2009, 12:40 PM
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JimEIV
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my opinion is in a cap era those entry level contracts must fill a portion of every teams roster.

That makes the value of a premium picks even more valuable. In this NHL I don't think we will see any of those top picks moving to much on draft day anymore.

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06-18-2009, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfried View Post
.Toronto could only hope that one of these guys pans out to be better than Tomas Kaberle as opposed to the alternative of locking him up for the rest of his career; and chances are that the pick will not pan out to be better.
good try but Burke would kill to get somebody in the top 15 to give up their pick for Kaberle. but its not gonna happen. a 30+ year old defender coming off an Awful year (for him) just isnt going to generate that kind of interest.

the best bet is to hold on to him and hope he picks up his game next year and trade him at the trade deadline

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06-18-2009, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by DG View Post
Letang for a TOP 2 pick?
Trust me, I found it hard to believe until I read it with my own eyes.

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06-18-2009, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Isles_Guy View Post
good try but Burke would kill to get somebody in the top 15 to give up their pick for Kaberle. but its not gonna happen. a 30+ year old defender coming off an Awful year (for him) just isnt going to generate that kind of interest.

the best bet is to hold on to him and hope he picks up his game next year and trade him at the trade deadline
Go back to the Isles board and troll there.

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06-18-2009, 02:53 PM
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A good formula to use is:

Top 10 pick in the draft = exactly half of what an average HF poster would say.

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06-18-2009, 03:01 PM
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Scouting is so good nowadays that the top 7 picks are usually real solid.

Letang for a top 2...i don't think so. There were dmen drafted after #2 last year that will be better than Letang. Letang is a beneficiary of the team around him and the great PP that he is on. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid player, but you can throw any number of dmen on that team and that PP and they WILL produce.

The key to building strong teams is making the right choices in the 2nd and 3rd round. As a Kings fan, Moller and Simmonds were 2nd rounders that seem to be coveted on here.

Loktionov was a 5th rounder I think and seemed to adjust to the north american game well in Windsor.

Getting those late guys are the key. It is why Detroit is so successful. You don't have to pick in the top 10 to have a great team year in and year out, but it sure does help sometimes.

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06-18-2009, 03:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DG View Post
Letang for a TOP 2 pick?
I agree,

Pitts would be the laughing stock of the league if they wouldn't trade Letang for Hedman or Tavares.

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06-18-2009, 03:07 PM
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I know draft picks are highly overrated on HF but Letang for a top 2 pick is the most ridiculous thing I have heard on these boards.

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06-18-2009, 03:10 PM
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kaberle for a top 3 and top prospect.

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Old
06-18-2009, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Eraser View Post
Go back to the Isles board and troll there.
He wasn't trolling. He was speaking the truth. Just because Kaberle is overrated here but almost every Leaf fan on this forum, doesn't mean its true.

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06-18-2009, 03:11 PM
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Good post

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06-18-2009, 03:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordLucic View Post
I know draft picks are highly overrated on HF but Letang for a top 2 pick is the most ridiculous thing I have heard on these boards.
Why does the defending Stanley Cup champ move a 22 YO d-man who was just a key contributor to the Cup? Especially when they're counting on him to carry the load here in the immediate future?

Posters here need to understand that not everything is based solely on some theoritical "market value". Contending teams aren't going to move core players (which Letang is IMO) for a CHANCE at getting a better players that's likely 3+ years away from performing at the higher level. How many 18 YO's contribute at the NHL level better than what Letang will do next year? Almost no one (Jovo back in the day, or Bogosian for a short stretch at the end of last year) IMO.

Is Letang worth more than the 3rd overall (Duchesne) on a theoritical basis? No. Is there any chance that trading Letang for Duchesne makes the Pens a better team next year? IMO, no flipping way!

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06-18-2009, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordLucic View Post
He wasn't trolling. He was speaking the truth. Just because Kaberle is overrated here but almost every Leaf fan on this forum, doesn't mean its true.
thank you.

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Old
06-18-2009, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Isles_Guy View Post
good try but Burke would kill to get somebody in the top 15 to give up their pick for Kaberle. but its not gonna happen. a 30+ year old defender coming off an Awful year (for him) just isnt going to generate that kind of interest.

the best bet is to hold on to him and hope he picks up his game next year and trade him at the trade deadline
This is spot on.

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06-18-2009, 04:52 PM
  #19
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This is spot on.
it was just so obvious why put Kaberle in the post if it wasnt to try and lift his value

youre never gonna get a high pick for him because a rebuilding team wants someone to grow with even if theres a chance that a prospect will bust. a playoff team can use him certainly but a playoff team picks late in the round.

I guy like Kessel who is young and quality can get a high top pick. if a team like the bruins want to move him but thats a big risk because if the prospect doesnt turn out as good you look like a fool.

thats why as soon as I saw Kaberle mentioned I knew it was a put up job. a Kessel or an Oshie or a young up and comer in the original post I would look at differently but not Kaberle

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06-18-2009, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
Why does the defending Stanley Cup champ move a 22 YO d-man who was just a key contributor to the Cup? Especially when they're counting on him to carry the load here in the immediate future?

Posters here need to understand that not everything is based solely on some theoritical "market value". Contending teams aren't going to move core players (which Letang is IMO) for a CHANCE at getting a better players that's likely 3+ years away from performing at the higher level. How many 18 YO's contribute at the NHL level better than what Letang will do next year? Almost no one (Jovo back in the day, or Bogosian for a short stretch at the end of last year) IMO.

Is Letang worth more than the 3rd overall (Duchesne) on a theoritical basis? No. Is there any chance that trading Letang for Duchesne makes the Pens a better team next year? IMO, no flipping way!
I NEVER SAID THEY SHOULD MOVE HIM. Its just extremely laughable to think Letang's value is anywhere close to one of the top 2 overall picks.

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Old
06-18-2009, 05:11 PM
  #21
JawandaPuck
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Its a good question. And I too wanted to get good feel for value of the top picks. So I applied TSN Scott Cullen's recent analysis against this years top 15 (using the ISS May rankings).

Cullen's points system is as follows:
Quote:
http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=282241
I took the Top 30 selections for each of the last 30 drafts, starting with the legendary 1979 draft, from which 27 of the Top 30 played in at least 200 NHL games, and assigned simple 1-10 values for each player along these guidelines:

10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular
4 - Fringe NHLer
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer
2 - Minor Leaguer, maybe gets a shot in NHL
1 - No NHL games

Here, then, is a general idea of what kind of value an NHL draft pick has provided over the last 30 years (take note, the 2009 draft is considered to be a "good" draft class so, theoretically, their results should be better than the average).

1. Tavares, John C 9/20/1990 L 6.00.2 195 London OHL
No. 1 Average Rating: 7.17
Best: Mario Lemieux, Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby.
Worst: Gord Kluzak, Brian Lawton, Alexandre Daigle, Patrik Stefan.
Ranked 7 or better: 63%

2. Duchene, Matt C 1/16/1991 L 5.11 200 Brampton OHL
No. 2 Average Rating: 6.67
Best: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Pronger, Brendan Shanahan.
Worst: Dave Chyzowski, Doug Smith, Andrei Zyuzin.
Ranked 7 or better: 60%

3. Hedman, Victor LD 12/18/1990 L 6.06 220 Modo SweE
No. 3 Average Rating: 6.50
Best: Pat Lafontaine, Scott Niedermayer, Denis Savard.
Worst: Neil Brady, Alexandre Svitov, Aki Berg.
Ranked 7 or better: 57%

4. Paajarvi-Svensson, Magnus LW 4/12/1991 L 6.01 200 Timra SweE
No. 4 Average Rating: 5.80
Best: Steve Yzerman, Ron Francis, Mike Gartner.
Worst: Alexandre Volchkov, Jason Bonsignore, Pavel Brendl.
Ranked 7 or better: 43%

Because this is a quality year, I would say its here, after the fourth pick that teams will have less than a 50% chance of their pick developing into a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.


5. Kane, Evander C 8/2/1991 L 6.01.2 176 Vancouver WHL
No. 5 Average Rating: 6.00
Best: Jaromir Jagr, Scott Stevens, Thomas Vanek.
Worst: Daniel Dore, Ric Jackman, Stanislav Chistov.
Ranked 7 or better: 33%

6. Schenn, Brayden C 8/22/1991 L 6.00 198 Brandon WHL
No. 6 Average Rating: 5.23
Best: Paul Coffey, Peter Forsberg, Vincent Damphousse.
Worst: Scott Scissons, Brian Finley, Steve Kelly.
Ranked 7 or better: 40%

7. Cowen, Jared LD 1/25/1991 L 6.05.2 220 Spokane WHL
No. 7 Average Rating: 5.20
Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Darryl Sydor
Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Dan Woodley
Ranked 7 or better: 27%

8. Kadri, Nazem C 10/6/1990 L 5.11.5 167 London OHL
No. 8 Average Rating: 5.03
Best: Ray Bourque, Grant Fuhr, Jeremy Roenick.
Worst: Jason Herter, Terry Ryan, Rocky Trottier.
Ranked 7 or better: 30%

9. Ekman-Larsson, Oliver LD 7/17/1991 L 6.02 176 Leksands SweAl
No. 9 Average Rating: 5.13
Best: Cam Neely, Brian Leetch, Rod Brind'Amour.
Worst: Brent Krahn, Petr Taticek, Craig Duncanson.
Ranked 7 or better: 30%

10. Kulikov, Dmitri LD 10/29/1990 L 6.00.5 183 Drummondville QMJHL
No. 10 Average Rating: 4.83
Best: Teemu Selanne, Bobby Holik, Nik Antropov.
Worst: Dan Gratton, Mikhail Yakubov, Brad Ference.
Ranked 7 or better: 13%

11. Josefson, Jacob C 3/2/1991 L 6.00 187 Djurgarden SweE
No. 11 Average Rating: 5.33
Best: Jarome Iginla, Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar.
Worst: Chris Govedaris, David Cooper, Dan Focht.
Ranked 7 or better: 33%

12. Leblanc, Louis C 1/26/1991 R 6.00 178 Omaha USHL
No. 12 Average Rating: 4.37
Best: Gary Roberts, Marian Hossa, Alex Tanguay.
Worst: Teemu Riihijarvi, Hugh Jessiman, A.J. Thelen.
Ranked 7 or better: 27%

13. Ellis, Ryan RD 1/3/1991 R 5.09.2 173 Windsor OHL
No. 13 Average Rating: 4.63
Best: Mattias Ohlund, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Alexander Semin.
Worst: David Quinn, Lindsay Vallis, Michael Stewart.
Ranked 7 or better: 27%

14. Schroeder, Jordan RW 9/29/1990 R 5.08.2 175 Minnesota WCHA
No. 14 Average Rating: 4.43
Best: Brian Propp, Sergei Gonchar, Brent Seabrook.
Worst: Sasha Pokulok, Jim Malone, Michel Riesen.
Ranked 7 or better: 13%

15. Holland, Peter C 1/14/1991 L 6.02 185 Guelph OHL
No. 15 Average Rating: 3.33
Best: Al MacInnis, Joe Sakic, Alex Kovalev.
Worst: Alexander Kharlamov, Matt Zultek, Scott Kelman.
Ranked 7 or better: 13%


Last edited by JawandaPuck: 06-18-2009 at 08:36 PM.
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Old
06-18-2009, 05:47 PM
  #22
phlocky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JawandaPuck View Post
Its a good question. And I too wanted to get good feel for value of the top picks. So I applied TSN Scott Cullen's recent analysis against this years top 15 (using the ISS May rankings).

Cullen's points system is as follows:



1. Tavares, John C 9/20/1990 L 6.00.2 195 London OHL
No. 1 Average Rating: 7.17
Best: Mario Lemieux, Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby.
Worst: Gord Kluzak, Brian Lawton, Alexandre Daigle, Patrik Stefan.
Ranked 7 or better: 63%

2. Duchene, Matt C 1/16/1991 L 5.11 200 Brampton OHL
No. 2 Average Rating: 6.67
Best: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Pronger, Brendan Shanahan.
Worst: Dave Chyzowski, Doug Smith, Andrei Zyuzin.
Ranked 7 or better: 60%

3. Hedman, Victor LD 12/18/1990 L 6.06 220 Modo SweE
No. 3 Average Rating: 6.50
Best: Pat Lafontaine, Scott Niedermayer, Denis Savard.
Worst: Neil Brady, Alexandre Svitov, Aki Berg.
Ranked 7 or better: 57%

4. Paajarvi-Svensson, Magnus LW 4/12/1991 L 6.01 200 Timra SweE
No. 4 Average Rating: 5.80
Best: Steve Yzerman, Ron Francis, Mike Gartner.
Worst: Alexandre Volchkov, Jason Bonsignore, Pavel Brendl.
Ranked 7 or better: 43%

5. Kane, Evander C 8/2/1991 L 6.01.2 176 Vancouver WHL
No. 5 Average Rating: 6.00
Best: Jaromir Jagr, Scott Stevens, Thomas Vanek.
Worst: Daniel Dore, Ric Jackman, Stanislav Chistov.
Ranked 7 or better: 33%

6. Schenn, Brayden C 8/22/1991 L 6.00 198 Brandon WHL
No. 6 Average Rating: 5.23
Best: Paul Coffey, Peter Forsberg, Vincent Damphousse.
Worst: Scott Scissons, Brian Finley, Steve Kelly.
Ranked 7 or better: 40%

7. Cowen, Jared LD 1/25/1991 L 6.05.2 220 Spokane WHL
No. 7 Average Rating: 5.20
Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Darryl Sydor
Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Dan Woodley
Ranked 7 or better: 27%

8. Kadri, Nazem C 10/6/1990 L 5.11.5 167 London OHL
No. 8 Average Rating: 5.03
Best: Ray Bourque, Grant Fuhr, Jeremy Roenick.
Worst: Jason Herter, Terry Ryan, Rocky Trottier.
Ranked 7 or better: 30%

9. Ekman-Larsson, Oliver LD 7/17/1991 L 6.02 176 Leksands SweAl
No. 9 Average Rating: 5.13
Best: Cam Neely, Brian Leetch, Rod Brind'Amour.
Worst: Brent Krahn, Petr Taticek, Craig Duncanson.
Ranked 7 or better: 30%

10. Kulikov, Dmitri LD 10/29/1990 L 6.00.5 183 Drummondville QMJHL
No. 10 Average Rating: 4.83
Best: Teemu Selanne, Bobby Holik, Nik Antropov.
Worst: Dan Gratton, Mikhail Yakubov, Brad Ference.
Ranked 7 or better: 13%

11. Josefson, Jacob C 3/2/1991 L 6.00 187 Djurgarden SweE
No. 11 Average Rating: 5.33
Best: Jarome Iginla, Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar.
Worst: Chris Govedaris, David Cooper, Dan Focht.
Ranked 7 or better: 33%

12. Leblanc, Louis C 1/26/1991 R 6.00 178 Omaha USHL
No. 12 Average Rating: 4.37
Best: Gary Roberts, Marian Hossa, Alex Tanguay.
Worst: Teemu Riihijarvi, Hugh Jessiman, A.J. Thelen.
Ranked 7 or better: 27%

13. Ellis, Ryan RD 1/3/1991 R 5.09.2 173 Windsor OHL
No. 13 Average Rating: 4.63
Best: Mattias Ohlund, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Alexander Semin.
Worst: David Quinn, Lindsay Vallis, Michael Stewart.
Ranked 7 or better: 27%

14. Schroeder, Jordan RW 9/29/1990 R 5.08.2 175 Minnesota WCHA
No. 14 Average Rating: 4.43
Best: Brian Propp, Sergei Gonchar, Brent Seabrook.
Worst: Sasha Pokulok, Jim Malone, Michel Riesen.
Ranked 7 or better: 13%

15. Holland, Peter C 1/14/1991 L 6.02 185 Guelph OHL
No. 15 Average Rating: 3.33
Best: Al MacInnis, Joe Sakic, Alex Kovalev.
Worst: Alexander Kharlamov, Matt Zultek, Scott Kelman.
Ranked 7 or better: 13%
Pretty tough to argue with this. Numbers may not tell the WHOLE story but they do tell you a lot. A good 1st line forward or top pairing dman should get you into the top 5 (provided there aren't mitigating sircumatnaces like their contract expiring soon and them not sticking around, Kaberle, of their contract is long and high, Briere). A player scoring 70 pints should get you into the top 5 + mid level prospect (say someone like Elias, Gagne or Nash). A young player scoring 50-60 points should get you somewhere around the 15th-20th pick (think Umberger last year).

There are more possibilities I could post but I think you guys get the point. High picks are nice and typically they DON'T get moved because the team with the pick rarely is just 1 player away from truly competing.

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06-18-2009, 08:43 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
Pretty tough to argue with this. Numbers may not tell the WHOLE story but they do tell you a lot. A good 1st line forward or top pairing dman should get you into the top 5 (provided there aren't mitigating sircumatnaces like their contract expiring soon and them not sticking around, Kaberle, of their contract is long and high, Briere). A player scoring 70 pints should get you into the top 5 + mid level prospect (say someone like Elias, Gagne or Nash). A young player scoring 50-60 points should get you somewhere around the 15th-20th pick (think Umberger last year).

There are more possibilities I could post but I think you guys get the point. High picks are nice and typically they DON'T get moved because the team with the pick rarely is just 1 player away from truly competing.

Yeah, its pretty sobering data: after the fourth pick, teams will have less than a 50% chance of their pick developing into a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.

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Old
06-18-2009, 08:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DG View Post
Letang for a TOP 2 pick?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraser View Post
Trust me, I found it hard to believe until I read it with my own eyes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeeMeck View Post
Scouting is so good nowadays that the top 7 picks are usually real solid.

Letang for a top 2...i don't think so. There were dmen drafted after #2 last year that will be better than Letang. Letang is a beneficiary of the team around him and the great PP that he is on. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid player, but you can throw any number of dmen on that team and that PP and they WILL produce.

The key to building strong teams is making the right choices in the 2nd and 3rd round. As a Kings fan, Moller and Simmonds were 2nd rounders that seem to be coveted on here.

Loktionov was a 5th rounder I think and seemed to adjust to the north american game well in Windsor.

Getting those late guys are the key. It is why Detroit is so successful. You don't have to pick in the top 10 to have a great team year in and year out, but it sure does help sometimes.
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Originally Posted by aqsw View Post
I agree,

Pitts would be the laughing stock of the league if they wouldn't trade Letang for Hedman or Tavares.
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Originally Posted by LordLucic View Post
I know draft picks are highly overrated on HF but Letang for a top 2 pick is the most ridiculous thing I have heard on these boards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
Why does the defending Stanley Cup champ move a 22 YO d-man who was just a key contributor to the Cup? Especially when they're counting on him to carry the load here in the immediate future?

Posters here need to understand that not everything is based solely on some theoritical "market value". Contending teams aren't going to move core players (which Letang is IMO) for a CHANCE at getting a better players that's likely 3+ years away from performing at the higher level. How many 18 YO's contribute at the NHL level better than what Letang will do next year? Almost no one (Jovo back in the day, or Bogosian for a short stretch at the end of last year) IMO.

Is Letang worth more than the 3rd overall (Duchesne) on a theoritical basis? No. Is there any chance that trading Letang for Duchesne makes the Pens a better team next year? IMO, no flipping way!
lot of people bashing one poster, Beukboom is right on the money though I agree 100%.

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06-18-2009, 11:18 PM
  #25
Darth Milbury
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Originally Posted by Eraser View Post
Go back to the Isles board and troll there.

Yeah, because anything that doens't confirm your Leaf-centric fantasies about trade value is "trolling."

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