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Lundqvist facing the most difficult shots in the league?

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06-16-2009, 01:19 AM
  #1
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Lundqvist facing the most difficult shots in the league?

I dug up this article from a couple of weeks ago. I'm not sure how much faith to put into these metrics but I do find some of the research to be interesting.

Anyway, apparently Henrik Lundqvist routinely faced more high-quality shots than any other goaltender in the league.

http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/4/27...ave-percentage

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06-16-2009, 01:27 AM
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thanks for sharing this. its why i wished "quality chances" would be an included statistic for us to use.

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06-16-2009, 01:35 AM
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and by the way, im not at all surprised, and would have guessed Lundqvist without a seconds thought if someone asked me which NHL goalie faces the toughest workload night in and night out.

i hope the people who have the audacity to call Henrik overrated, or call for him to be traded or any other such nonsense take a minute and look at this.

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06-16-2009, 01:39 AM
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This is really interesting, I know there were some posters who said that Henrik faces more high-quality shots than the average goaltender, and I agreed with this contention but couldn't back it up with any statistical data. It also proves that the defensive scheme did not work this past season, whether it be because our defensemen simply weren't good enough or the players didn't commit to the system.

After looking at the list of who faces the easiest shots, I am no longer that impressed with Backstrom and it appears that he was most likely hiding behind Lemaire's defensive scheme. Budaj & Raycroft are really horrible, Colorado really has their work set out for them. And although I give Fleury props for coming through in the clutch and winning the Cup, he is not a technically sound goalie and gives up some really bad goals, which is probably why he was 4th on this list.

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06-16-2009, 01:49 AM
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I checked out the stats generator directly here :

http://www.behindthenet.ca/2008/5_on...?sort=5&mingp=

According to this, Lundqvist has now faced the most difficult shots in the league for two seasons in a row. If you combine 07-8 with 08-9 Lundqvist has an "expected goals against" 31 goals higher than Vokoun, the second place goalie.

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06-16-2009, 01:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OverTheCap View Post

After looking at the list of who faces the easiest shots, I am no longer that impressed with Backstrom and it appears that he was most likely hiding behind Lemaire's defensive scheme. Budaj & Raycroft are really horrible, Colorado really has their work set out for them. And although I give Fleury props for coming through in the clutch and winning the Cup, he is not a technically sound goalie and gives up some really bad goals, which is probably why he was 4th on this list.
Completely agree with you on Backstrom. It supports what I (and a lot of others) have been seeing with Minnesota, namely that they play phenomenal defense.

I was surprised to see Huet and Khabibulin there... it always seemed to me like the Blackhakws played relatively solid defense. Also, it's nice to see that there is some degree of justification for Osgood putting up such a horrendous season.

And Atlanta is bad. Really bad.

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06-16-2009, 05:48 AM
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Just imagine if this team didn't have Lundqvist. Makes you realize just how special this guy is.

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06-16-2009, 05:52 AM
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Wow, so much for Renney's supposed "defensive" system of getting in shooting lanes and blocking shots. What a joke.

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06-16-2009, 06:01 AM
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Originally Posted by BayAreaRanger View Post
Just imagine if this team didn't have Lundqvist. Makes you realize just how special this guy is.
3 of the previous 4 seasons would not have been playoff years, and we might have been competing for the #1 pick this year seeing as how our December-February went.

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06-16-2009, 08:01 AM
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Question... is this the same site that brokedown how Broduer's stats are fraudulent? Could be different. I do read into this writer's bias as he mentions Backstrom (bittersweet about the Vezina nomination) and the New Jersey goalies. "Not surprisingly" are the words he uses... sounds like sour grapes to me.

This will come off as stirring the pot, which is fine its the offseason and maybe it'll keep some of us entertained. But basically I'm just saying, I don't buy Lundqvist as facing the "highest-quality shots" in the league last year. I mentioned, above, the possibility of bias. Here are my other reasons why I don't necessarily buy into this formulation:

I thought the Rangers defense many times played very well. I know in many of the games I saw (vs. New Jersey, but I did watch PLENTY of Ranger games against other teams), the Rangers defense did a phenomenal job of keeping shots to the outside, as well as blocking shots.

Conversely, I've also seen Henrik steal plenty of games. I can't say that makes it a wash. That's not fair. But even if Lundqvist stood on his head 30% more often, we all know there are goalies who were getting shelled more than that. The Rangers defense is, at worst, average. Show me a goalie for a below average defense... I'm sure he's facing higher quality shots.

But you look at the way these numbers are added up... this is an example from 2007-08 (click a couple links to dig deeper)

Quote:
So as an example, Henrik Lundqvist has allowed 41 goals on 567 shots at 5-on-5, for a 927 save percentage. However, an average goalie who faced the 567 shots from the same locations would expect to allow 58.3 goals, for an 897 save percentage.
He is using "5-5" as a basis for quality of shots. But where did those shots come from, while on even strength. Were they screened shots? How easy was the shot? A screened shot from the blue line can be much harder to stop than a heavily defended, in close shot.

Plus... he does not take into account the player shooting. Gaborik vs. David Clarkson?

Quote:
This is obviously a coarse estimate: we have no information on whether shots were defended or screened, and because of the difference in the way shot types are recorded in different arenas, I haven't differentiated between them. [Yes, in hopes of improving the system, I am happy to accept critical comments!]
I mean, it was a good effort. But knowing what I've seen with my own eyes, compared to the obvious admission on how this is a rudimentary formula... I don't buy it.


Where the heck is Mike Smith?!?! Look at Tampa's defense, and the garbage they allowed to happen. That's all I'm saying....


Last edited by Mr Bojanglez: 06-16-2009 at 08:10 AM.
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06-16-2009, 08:19 AM
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You had to figure at least one Devils fan would post here, at least it was Billy.

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06-16-2009, 08:24 AM
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You had to figure at least one Devils fan would post here, at least it was Billy.
dude... i'm bored at work. Before we know it, time passes by and i'm out of my office. Lets battle

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06-16-2009, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by alphaqup View Post
Wow, so much for Renney's supposed "defensive" system of getting in shooting lanes and blocking shots. What a joke.
Really? Back to the Renney thing based on this?

Its no surprise that Renney's "system" leaned heavily on Lundqvist. Take a look at the defenses he had to work with over his 3 and a half seasons...youll find plenty of guys like Marek Malik, Jason Strudwick, and Darius Kasparaitis.

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06-16-2009, 08:43 AM
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The Rangers defense blocked a lot of shots, but a lot of them tended to be fairly easy shots, and so the ones they gave up were often more difficult.

That said, I'm not sure how valid you can consider an analysis like this.

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06-16-2009, 09:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bojanglez View Post
Question... is this the same site that brokedown how Broduer's stats are fraudulent? Could be different. I do read into this writer's bias as he mentions Backstrom (bittersweet about the Vezina nomination) and the New Jersey goalies. "Not surprisingly" are the words he uses... sounds like sour grapes to me.


Where the heck is Mike Smith?!?! Look at Tampa's defense, and the garbage they allowed to happen. That's all I'm saying....
I believe the site your thinking of is http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/

And remember, concerning James Mirtle's bias... these aren't his stats. The first link I posted is just his analysis of the stats generated at behindthenet.ca.

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06-16-2009, 09:23 AM
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With the number of breakaways, two on ones, and point blank chances this team gives up, any breakdown of who faces the most difficult shots in the league HAS to put Hank near the top.

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06-16-2009, 11:14 AM
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With the number of breakaways, two on ones, and point blank chances this team gives up, any breakdown of who faces the most difficult shots in the league HAS to put Hank near the top.
This... Every team has a defensive system in place, but honestly the "Cookie Dough" strength of the defensive players on this team was a little sickening to watch as opposing players lightly muscled their way in passed our D.

Bad giveaways in the neutral zone also didnt help much as the 2 on 1's and Breakaways add up.

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06-16-2009, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Mr Bojanglez View Post
I do read into this writer's bias as he mentions Backstrom (bittersweet about the Vezina nomination) and the New Jersey goalies. "Not surprisingly" are the words he uses... sounds like sour grapes to me.
Who exactly would I be biased against?

It's not surprising as the Wild and Devils play some of the tightest defensive hockey in the league, therefore their goaltenders' statistics benefit from that system. I've been saying that for years and years.

And, as someone else notes, I'm relying on someone else's data here. I didn't make these numbers up.

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06-16-2009, 12:24 PM
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While measuring quality shots and quality scoring chances is tough due to a number of reasons (no set standard and therefore hard to be objective, very tedious work since the statistical collection takes an assload of time, etc), Lundqvist has been in the top5 in basically any work that has tried to create a goalie list where quality scoring chances against have been counted in. And historically, NYR is always among the top when it comes to hanging their goalie out to dry. At least for a long time now.

There have been complaints MSG has crappy statisticians who suck at their job and give a bad bias that is clearly higher compared to other arenas, but even when you count them out, Lundqvist is still among the top.

And really, if you watch this team on a regular basis, you just facepalm yourself every second night. And it comes to no surprise whatsoever to me personally, that Lundqvist should top a list like this after this season. Because this season was probably the most pathetic display of team defense I've ever seen a professional hockey team try to perform. And almost team offense as well for that matter, but in that category I've actually seen worse.

There was alot of talk on this board about Lundqvist having a bad november/ december/ whatever, just as every year he has entered the league. And I have consistently said: "bullcrap, that's the NHL statz boyz talking", because this was, according to me, Lundqvist's most consistent career year in NHL. He never had a long stretch with bad games, in fact the games Lundqvist didn't give his team a chance to win can be counted on one hand, but his team certainly hung him out to dry in a very bad fashion. Alot. For a very, very long time. The team just performed in different colours of brown. Polish a turd, it's still a turd.

Lundqvist doesn't make that many TV saves, but that's because his fundamentals are clearly elite. He doesn't need to throw himself after the puck, because he's almost always in a position to give himself a good opportunity to save any shot.

That's why those who complain he plays too deep in his net need to tone it down a little. He plays deep for a reason, but another reason than Giguere did. He and Benoit aren't idiots. He simply can't count on his teammates to do their part. We just have to swallow the flaws that comes with deep netminding. I do agree he could be a little bit more aggresive towards the shooter on some occassions, but that takes years to learn. It's better he takes no chances than leaving an open net, because his D-man couldn't take away the cross pass any day of the week.

While it may come to some sort of surprise - to some - that Lundqvist is even more valuable than some could imagine, it comes as no surprise - to some - either. Lundqvist is a world class goalie, period.


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06-16-2009, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimp View Post
While measuring quality shots and quality scoring chances is tough due to a number of reasons (no set standard and therefore hard to be objective, very tedious work since the statistical collection takes an assload of time, etc) , Lundqvist has been in the top5 in basically any work that has tried to create a goalie list where quality scoring chances against have been counted in. And historically, NYR is always among the top when it comes to hanging their goalie out to dry. At least for a long time now.

There have been complaints MSG has crappy statisticians who suck at their job and give a bad bias that is clearly higher compared to other arenas, but even when you count them out, Lundqvist is still among the top.

And really, if you watch this team on a regular basis, you just facepalm yourself every second night. And it comes to no surprise whatsoever to me personally, that Lundqvist should top a list like this after this season. Because this season was probably the most pathetic display of team defense I've ever seen a professional hockey team try to perform. And almost team offense as well for that matter, but in that category I've actually seen worse.

There was alot of talk on this board about Lundqvist having a bad november/ december/ whatever, just as every year he has entered the league. And I have consistently said: "bullcrap", that's the NHL statz boyz talking", because this was, according to me, Lundqvist's most consistent career year in NHL. He never had a long stretch with bad games, in fact the games Lundqvist didn't give his team a chance to win can be counted on one hand, but his team certainly hung him out to dry in a very bad fashion. Alot. For a very, very long time. The team just performed in different colours of brown. Polish a turd, it's still a turd.

Lundqvist doesn't make that many TV saves, but that's because his fundamentals are clearly elite. He doesn't need to throw himself after the puck, because he's almost always in a position to give himself a good opportunity to save any shot.

That's why those who complain he plays too deep in his net need to shut up. He plays deep exactly because of what he faces on a regular basis. He and Benoit aren't idiots. He simply can't count on his teammates to do their part. We just have to swallow the flaws that comes with deep netminding. I do agree he could be a little bit more aggresive towards the shooter on some occassions, but that takes years to learn. It's better he takes no chances than leaving an open net, because his D-man couldn't take away the cross pass any day of the week.

While it may come to some sort of surprise - to some - that Lundqvist is even more valuable than some could imagine, it comes as no surprise - to some - either. Lundqvist is a world class goalie, period.
Excellent post, Chimp. It cannot be stated enough just how important Henke is to our franchise.

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06-16-2009, 12:47 PM
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Excellent post, Chimp. It cannot be stated enough just how important Henke is to our franchise.
Well to be honest, at this point Hank = our franchise.

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06-16-2009, 01:03 PM
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Who exactly would I be biased against?

It's not surprising as the Wild and Devils play some of the tightest defensive hockey in the league, therefore their goaltenders' statistics benefit from that system. I've been saying that for years and years.

And, as someone else notes, I'm relying on someone else's data here. I didn't make these numbers up.
It was the wording of it. So let me ask, are you a Ranger's fan? Because just reading your blurb, that was the vibe I received. Not knowing you. You can tell me otherwise, and I'll believe you. Just saying...

I understand it was based off another persons formula. That is there I had the majority of my issue, and where most of my post was directed towards.

And... really New Jersey doesn't play tight defensive hockey these days. They didn't for 90% of last season. Clemmenson made saves on high quality shots... almost solely with luck. But he made those saves somehow.

And perhaps Minnesota's "great defense" is also a product of their great goaltending. If Minnesota's defense is so good, then how come NYR's #1 PK isn't a factor against Lundqvist in this particular category (of high quality shots)? They're 1 and 2 in that column.

They're also 22- and 23 in terms of "5-5 goals for/against"...

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm...ewName=summary

They're both similar teams in my mind, statistically. Isn't that what a lot of this is based on? We've established it can't keep track of quality of shot, or actual shooter... many factors.

I just don't see how Backstrom can be counted as being any different from Lundqvist, really. I think they're on very similar playing fields. Switch their teams and I think they'll perform very similarly.

This is something that bothers me when Backstrom, who has been a consistent league leader in goal stats, gets no recognition. Whereas Lundqvist, in a similar boat, gets the praise. Thats another argument for another day.

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06-16-2009, 01:14 PM
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3 of the previous 4 seasons would not have been playoff years, and we might have been competing for the #1 pick this year seeing as how our December-February went.
so your saying we could of gotten Tavares

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06-16-2009, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Chimp View Post
While measuring quality shots and quality scoring chances is tough due to a number of reasons (no set standard and therefore hard to be objective, very tedious work since the statistical collection takes an assload of time, etc), Lundqvist has been in the top5 in basically any work that has tried to create a goalie list where quality scoring chances against have been counted in. And historically, NYR is always among the top when it comes to hanging their goalie out to dry. At least for a long time now.

There have been complaints MSG has crappy statisticians who suck at their job and give a bad bias that is clearly higher compared to other arenas, but even when you count them out, Lundqvist is still among the top.

And really, if you watch this team on a regular basis, you just facepalm yourself every second night. And it comes to no surprise whatsoever to me personally, that Lundqvist should top a list like this after this season. Because this season was probably the most pathetic display of team defense I've ever seen a professional hockey team try to perform. And almost team offense as well for that matter, but in that category I've actually seen worse.

There was alot of talk on this board about Lundqvist having a bad november/ december/ whatever, just as every year he has entered the league. And I have consistently said: "bullcrap, that's the NHL statz boyz talking", because this was, according to me, Lundqvist's most consistent career year in NHL. He never had a long stretch with bad games, in fact the games Lundqvist didn't give his team a chance to win can be counted on one hand, but his team certainly hung him out to dry in a very bad fashion. Alot. For a very, very long time. The team just performed in different colours of brown. Polish a turd, it's still a turd.

Lundqvist doesn't make that many TV saves, but that's because his fundamentals are clearly elite. He doesn't need to throw himself after the puck, because he's almost always in a position to give himself a good opportunity to save any shot.

That's why those who complain he plays too deep in his net need to tone it down a little. He plays deep for a reason, but another reason than Giguere did. He and Benoit aren't idiots. He simply can't count on his teammates to do their part. We just have to swallow the flaws that comes with deep netminding. I do agree he could be a little bit more aggresive towards the shooter on some occassions, but that takes years to learn. It's better he takes no chances than leaving an open net, because his D-man couldn't take away the cross pass any day of the week.

While it may come to some sort of surprise - to some - that Lundqvist is even more valuable than some could imagine, it comes as no surprise - to some - either. Lundqvist is a world class goalie, period.
I agree with all of this Chimp. I'm not really going to argue about Lundqvist though since it's been beaten to death on HFboards. He may not be the best goalie in the league, but he definitely plays at an elite level. There are maybe 2 or 3 other goalies in the league that could have carried this pathetic team to the playoffs this season. We don't have a legitimiate first line player and no #1 defenseman on this team. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there isn't a single team that made the playoffs this season that lacked both of these things.

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06-16-2009, 01:33 PM
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I'm not surprised. Lots of shots in close, lots of deflections (off both our D and their O), lots of shots by uncontested forwards (which leads to the high percentage top-shelf goals).

I always felt two things about our D: they are too weak and ineffective with the down low/crease game. They get in the way and block too many shots. We just don't have the personel to battle down low with out taking penalties. We conceed to many cross-crease passes, allow too much stickhandling from the slot, lose the physical battle in front. This will always yield high quality chances.

We try to block everything, even long point shots. Everyone collapses into the shooting lane to get a piece of it... and they usually do, sending erratic and unpredictable deflections on net. It gives Henrik a hell of a time with sighting the puck too. Watch other teams, they clear the lane on long range shots. They let the goalie do his job while minimizing deflections and screens. Watch our team, any clear, long range shot and one of our guys will stretch out to get a piece of the shot. Sometimes it goes in the stands, sometimes it goes where Henrik just moved away from.

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