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17 years since Poile has drafted a 1st line NHL player

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06-27-2009, 05:37 PM
  #1
dulzhok
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17 years since Poile has drafted a 1st line NHL player

Got a little curious... Poile's lack of success in drafting a true 1st line players dates back to 1993 with Washington (Jason Allison-17th overall).

Yes, I'm making a couple of assumptions. Hartnell would be the closest thing to a first liner... but I think most would agree that if he's on the first line, he's more of a complementary player to the real 1st line talent.

There are a couple of woulda, coulda, might be's. Radulov coulda have had a shot, but... Wilson might be... but said the same about Upshall, Legwand, Erat, etc.

Granted, some of this is on his scouts, and some of this comes from not having many top-end picks. But, disturbing none the less.

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06-27-2009, 05:52 PM
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I think Radulov has 1st line talent, and if he ever comes back, will be a 1/2nd line player. However, I understand your point.

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06-28-2009, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
Got a little curious... Poile's lack of success in drafting a true 1st line players dates back to 1993 with Washington (Jason Allison-17th overall).

Yes, I'm making a couple of assumptions. Hartnell would be the closest thing to a first liner... but I think most would agree that if he's on the first line, he's more of a complementary player to the real 1st line talent.

There are a couple of woulda, coulda, might be's. Radulov coulda have had a shot, but... Wilson might be... but said the same about Upshall, Legwand, Erat, etc.

Granted, some of this is on his scouts, and some of this comes from not having many top-end picks. But, disturbing none the less.
I agree that it is disturbing overall. And Poile deserves a lionshare of the blame regardless of whether or not it's the scouts because it's his team. But you could point to another aspect of the argument. Who has played a hand in developing the majority of forwards who were drafted to be first liners?

For whatever reason, Barry Trotz has never developed a player offensively. You can count on Luke Skywalker's right hand the amount of players whose offensive games progressed well beyond expectation under his tuteledge.

Conversely, even Antonio Alfonseca doesn't have enough fingers to account for the players who've come in with lots of hype/showed tons of promise only to fizzle out into mediocre or worse NHLers.

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06-28-2009, 11:52 AM
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It might have to do with where guys like Upshall and Hartnell were picked. They basically fell right outside of the elite in the draft, were seen as sure things and were probably more appealing than a boom bust player available later. Seems like a lot of offensive players in the top ten fail to live up offensively in that 6-10 range: Tkaczuk, Fata, Malhotra, Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Alexeev, Ruutu, Lupul, Skille, Olesz, Picard...

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06-28-2009, 02:20 PM
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dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause View Post
I agree that it is disturbing overall. And Poile deserves a lionshare of the blame regardless of whether or not it's the scouts because it's his team. But you could point to another aspect of the argument. Who has played a hand in developing the majority of forwards who were drafted to be first liners?

For whatever reason, Barry Trotz has never developed a player offensively. You can count on Luke Skywalker's right hand the amount of players whose offensive games progressed well beyond expectation under his tuteledge.

Conversely, even Antonio Alfonseca doesn't have enough fingers to account for the players who've come in with lots of hype/showed tons of promise only to fizzle out into mediocre or worse NHLers.
It's certainly enters into the equation. But, it begs the question, did the player have first talent to begin with? With the Predators, I think we are talking about this group of players: Legwand, Hartnell, Arkhipov, Upshall, Erat. IMO, most of these players wouldn't have developed into true first liners on any team. They are second line talent. The one who I held out hope for was Erat. I felt like if he put it all together, he could be 30g, 40a guy (and create a lot of that on his own).

If it is Trotz's system, one would have wonder why veterans have no problem producing points (Kariya, Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan, etc). I'm sure some will say it's because he's "harder" on the young ones. Another example, Radulov comes in and produced 26g in a secondary role. I think Radulov would've been the real test for Trotz. He had first line potential; more so than any other player we drafted. Would he have developed his talent under Trotz? I doubt we ever find out the answer to that question.

However, let's just say for a moment that Trotz is part of the problem as to why we've never drafted a first line player. This comes right back to Poile, since he's responsible for hiring Trotz, and keeping him on for 12 years.

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06-28-2009, 02:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
It's certainly enters into the equation. But, it begs the question, did the player have first talent to begin with? With the Predators, I think we are talking about this group of players: Legwand, Hartnell, Arkhipov, Upshall, Erat. IMO, most of these players wouldn't have developed into true first liners on any team. They are second line talent. The one who I held out hope for was Erat. I felt like if he put it all together, he could be 30g, 40a guy (and create a lot of that on his own).

If it is Trotz's system, one would have wonder why veterans have no problem producing points (Kariya, Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan, etc). I'm sure some will say it's because he's "harder" on the young ones. Another example, Radulov comes in and produced 26g in a secondary role. I think Radulov would've been the real test for Trotz. He had first line potential; more so than any other player we drafted. Would he have developed his talent under Trotz? I doubt we ever find out the answer to that question.

However, let's just say for a moment that Trotz is part of the problem as to why we've never drafted a first line player. This comes right back to Poile, since he's responsible for hiring Trotz, and keeping him on for 12 years.
Maybe I'm being a little bit of a turd here, but I think it is Trotz' fault we haven't gotten "top line forwards". If you look at where we have drafted (highest EVER for us was #2 overall - before we ever even played a game), we have been too successful to ever draft the Ovechkin/Kovalchuk/Crosby/Kane sure-thing top line players. Other teams had the ability to add good prospects, very similar to ours, to their own "top line players" that they drafted at the very top of drafts after years of crappy play, and subsequently repetitive top 3 picks. See the Penguins and Hawks for examples of this.

Look at our other 3 expansion brethren. They have all had pretty high picks (especially ATL) but without other pretty good talent, it hasn't produced much of anything.

Maybe I'm just being a jerk. Been out in the heat and sun all day.

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06-28-2009, 02:58 PM
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dulzhok
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Yes, I think draft position certainly enters into it. In those 17 years, he's only drafted once in the top 3 (Legwand). But still, 17 years...

I did a quick look at the top 30 scorers last year. 21 of 30 were drafted outside of the top 7 ... Some of these players were drafted before our time (1998), but many weren't.

1 Evgeni Malkin-
2 Alex Ovechkin-
3 Sidney Crosby-
4 Pavel Datsyuk- 6th round
5 Zach Parise- 17th overall
6 Ilya Kovalchuk-
7 Ryan Getzlaf- 19th overall
8 Jarome Iginla- 11th overall
9 Marc Savard- 4th round
10 Nicklas Backstrom- 4th overall
11 Joe Thornton-
12 Jeff Carter- 13th overall
13 Michael Cammalleri- 2nd round
14 Daniel Sedin-
15 Henrik Sedin-
16 Martin St. Louis- undrafted
17 Mike Richards- 24th overall
18 Rick Nash-
19 Alexander Semin- 13th overall
20 Patrik Elias- 2nd round
21 Mike Ribeiro- 2nd round
22 Martin Havlat- 26th overall
23 Ray Whitney- 2nd round
24 Vyacheslav Kozlov- 3rd round
25 Eric Staal-
26 Simon Gagne- 22nd overall
27 Daniel Alfredsson- 6th round
28 Jason Spezza-
29 Shane Doan- 7th overall
30 Zetterberg- 7th round

In looking at 31-45, there are more players that we passed up on (Krejki, Boyes, D. Roy, Perry, etc).

Point is, while picking in the top 3 more than once would've been nice, it serves as no excuse to have not drafted a 1st line player for the past 17 years.


Last edited by dulzhok: 06-28-2009 at 03:05 PM.
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06-28-2009, 03:20 PM
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Ironically, I think Trotz is the main reason we missed out on more top 3 picks. From 98-02, we pretty much sucked, but Trotz was able to squeeze more out of the players (Ronning, Walker, Kjellberg, Krivo, Houlder, Berehowsky, Boughner, etc) to where we weren't the worst in the league.

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06-29-2009, 08:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
It's certainly enters into the equation. But, it begs the question, did the player have first talent to begin with? With the Predators, I think we are talking about this group of players: Legwand, Hartnell, Arkhipov, Upshall, Erat. IMO, most of these players wouldn't have developed into true first liners on any team. They are second line talent. The one who I held out hope for was Erat. I felt like if he put it all together, he could be 30g, 40a guy (and create a lot of that on his own).
That's the real difficulty here. It's almost impossible to say what would have happened. If Arkhipov was drafted by Detroit and Datsyuk by Nashville, is Pavel out of the league and Denis a candidate for MVP? While I doubt it and that is an extreme example, I think it emphasizes my point that it's just very difficult to project out these players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
If it is Trotz's system, one would have wonder why veterans have no problem producing points (Kariya, Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan, etc). I'm sure some will say it's because he's "harder" on the young ones. Another example, Radulov comes in and produced 26g in a secondary role. I think Radulov would've been the real test for Trotz. He had first line potential; more so than any other player we drafted. Would he have developed his talent under Trotz? I doubt we ever find out the answer to that question.
None of those players ever had a better year under Trotz than under a previous regime with the exception of Dumont.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
However, let's just say for a moment that Trotz is part of the problem as to why we've never drafted a first line player. This comes right back to Poile, since he's responsible for hiring Trotz, and keeping him on for 12 years.
You'll get no arguments from me there.

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Old
06-30-2009, 11:45 AM
  #10
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True, no first liners...but 1st pairing defenseman seem to be his forte.

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