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Where were all the Czech draft picks?

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Old
07-01-2009, 10:39 AM
  #76
Tony Piscotta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qvist View Post
This misses the point that when you do a broad study with a large sample over a long period of time, factors like these, which can be important in individual cases, even out. Good or bad situations, good or bad coaches, that will have affected players in all groups.
Agree with your point here. But the fact of the matter, at least in my perception, is that the sample sizes are still too small, and there are still so many other variables, some of which are the ones Jussi has cited, as to look at this study as a definitive analysis of the CHL vs. home grown argument. In fact, this is the same discussion going on here in the United States in the CHL vs. US junior and college route debate.

For the most part, at this point there have only been handfuls of European players who've gone to various situations - whose to say their situations might not have been better with other clubs - either at home or abroad? As a result of the relatively small numbers, one or two experiences, either positive or negative, can radically skew the data in one direction or another.

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Originally Posted by Qvist View Post

Also, I don't really see any very immediate or obvious justification for assuming that you must have a big role on a senior team as an 18-year old in order for your development not to suffer. But further research would be needed.
There are two very relevant points with regard to ice time that influence the players' development. Obviously, if a player is playing a key role on his team, whether at the junior or senior levels, they are executing skills more frequently and getting more repetitions at things like shooting, passing, stickhandling as well as seeing more situations in which to hone their decision making and analytical skills.

And the level of competition at which they are executing these actions is clearly a factor in how well they develop.



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Originally Posted by Qvist View Post

You're right that the study doesn't mention ice time circumstances as a factor in the decision of young players to leave for the CHL. But it does offer a great deal of argumentation, including from North American coaches, for the view that skills are chiefly developed through practice, and that the European system is considerably better at this than the North American one in general as a result of a much higher practice-to-game ratio.
Here I tend to side with you in that the amount of practicing and skill development at juniors in North America is greatly lacking (and this is a key point the US NTDP uses as a selling point). The Canadian junior backers will tell you that the level of competition at the CHL level is so much higher as to negate the relevance of this (I tend to disagree).

Ideally, the optimal player development model would be a hybrid of the two systems - higher level players performing higher level drills and practice more frequently and at a higher competitive level.

But to the original discussion - I think many more factors, all difficult to adequately assess - would have to be included to make the study relevant.

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Old
07-01-2009, 02:32 PM
  #77
Qvist
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Quote:
Agree with your point here. But the fact of the matter, at least in my perception, is that the sample sizes are still too small, and there are still so many other variables, some of which are the ones Jussi has cited, as to look at this study as a definitive analysis of the CHL vs. home grown argument. In fact, this is the same discussion going on here in the United States in the CHL vs. US junior and college route debate.

For the most part, at this point there have only been handfuls of European players who've gone to various situations - whose to say their situations might not have been better with other clubs - either at home or abroad? As a result of the relatively small numbers, one or two experiences, either positive or negative, can radically skew the data in one direction or another.
Ahem. The sample is 621 players, which includes every single european who had a pro contract in North America over a period of six years. How could it possibly be larger? In fact, it is not even strictly accurate to call it a sample at all - it's everyone.

These are not "relatively small samples", and with all due respect, the claim that "one or two negative experiences" can "radically skew the data" is completely absurd. That's the sort of thing you could maybe bring up if the difference was just a very slight one. It isn't, as is perfecly obvious.

Quote:
There are two very relevant points with regard to ice time that influence the players' development. Obviously, if a player is playing a key role on his team, whether at the junior or senior levels, they are executing skills more frequently and getting more repetitions at things like shooting, passing, stickhandling as well as seeing more situations in which to hone their decision making and analytical skills.

And the level of competition at which they are executing these actions is clearly a factor in how well they develop.
If I were you, I'd read the study, because if you do, George Kingston will set you straight on that point. What he correctly points out is that game situations are of little relevance to the development of most such skills, because even top players actually have the puck for only a very short period during the course of a game. The amount of training you get on basic skills like shooting or passing in a single practice session equals a very large number of games, which is why a system that emphasises practice relative to games is better at developing such skills. Of course, game situaions are good for developing other kinds of skills, but most european players drafted are taken for the skill characteristics that the european system emphasises - which is very probably why they do not tend to develop to capacity by being thrown into a system that forces them to focus on other aspects of the game before they are fully developed as the type of player they are.

Quote:
Ideally, the optimal player development model would be a hybrid of the two systems - higher level players performing higher level drills and practice more frequently and at a higher competitive level.
Well, I think actually both systems work quite well. The key is to let players reach the necessary point in their development cycle before throwing them into a new one. I think it is more problematic for semi-developed europeans to be thrown into the NA system than vice versa.

But to the original discussion - I think many more factors, all difficult to adequately assess - would have to be included to make the study relevant.

The study is relevant. More than that, the basic data at least in unanswerable, as far as I can see, and I have yet to see anyone produce a significant valid argument against it or its relevance. Certainly it could be refined, and that would be useful, but I do not see how this could possibly affect the basic picture.

cheers

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Old
07-01-2009, 04:04 PM
  #78
slovakiasnextone
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I donīt know whether this link has been posted , but this is the summary of the study, I believe that it speaks for itself. Of course there always will be exceptions, but in general it proves that it is better for Euros to stay in Europe.

http://www.iihf.com/fileadmin/user_u...dy_summary.pdf

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07-03-2009, 09:26 AM
  #79
Tony Piscotta
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After reading the report

Quote:
Originally Posted by slovakiaforever View Post
I donīt know whether this link has been posted , but this is the summary of the study, I believe that it speaks for itself. Of course there always will be exceptions, but in general it proves that it is better for Euros to stay in Europe.

http://www.iihf.com/fileadmin/user_u...dy_summary.pdf
Checked out both the essay version and the charts in the summary. While I tend to support the conclusion that a majority of the Europeans would be better suited staying at home, I also see strong similarities between the college vs. juniors debate going on here in the US.

For the top tier players (4's and 5's as defined in the study - already for the most part developed), the CHL may be a better option. But for the bulk of players, staying with their clubs, developing their skills, and physically growing and training, are more conducive to reaching their ultimate potential.

As with the European club system, the American university teams generally practice four times a week with two games on the weekends - a game-to-practice ratio much more suited to Mr. Kingston's ideals.

The second conclusion I drew from the study - though it was not part of the analysis - is the indictment of the entry draft process itself; with clubs trying to identify the best players based on their progress as 17 and 18 year olds. Again, for the top tier players this is worthwhile but for the overwhelming majority it is little more than a crap shoot - and does not contribute greatly to a team's long-term development. It would seem to make more sense to cut the draft down to five or possibly even three rounds.

Much like the many Europeans who were drafted, many of the Canadian junior and American high school players that were selected never come close to reaching the NHL - and in fact many are never even signed after their junior or collegiate careers.

In fact, other than the major league American baseball draft, there is probably the least correlation in the NHL draft between a team's drafting ability and their ultimate success at the pro level. If a team hits on three of its seven draft selections in any given year, that would be considered a successful draft.

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Old
07-03-2009, 10:44 AM
  #80
slovakiasnextone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyVP View Post
Checked out both the essay version and the charts in the summary. While I tend to support the conclusion that a majority of the Europeans would be better suited staying at home, I also see strong similarities between the college vs. juniors debate going on here in the US.

For the top tier players (4's and 5's as defined in the study - already for the most part developed), the CHL may be a better option. But for the bulk of players, staying with their clubs, developing their skills, and physically growing and training, are more conducive to reaching their ultimate potential.

As with the European club system, the American university teams generally practice four times a week with two games on the weekends - a game-to-practice ratio much more suited to Mr. Kingston's ideals.

The second conclusion I drew from the study - though it was not part of the analysis - is the indictment of the entry draft process itself; with clubs trying to identify the best players based on their progress as 17 and 18 year olds. Again, for the top tier players this is worthwhile but for the overwhelming majority it is little more than a crap shoot - and does not contribute greatly to a team's long-term development. It would seem to make more sense to cut the draft down to five or possibly even three rounds.

Much like the many Europeans who were drafted, many of the Canadian junior and American high school players that were selected never come close to reaching the NHL - and in fact many are never even signed after their junior or collegiate careers.

In fact, other than the major league American baseball draft, there is probably the least correlation in the NHL draft between a team's drafting ability and their ultimate success at the pro level. If a team hits on three of its seven draft selections in any given year, that would be considered a successful draft.
You might be right with the 4,5 rated players.

But I think out of the very few players ranked 5, just very few have actually spent a season in CHL/AHL, the majority actually is the players that jumped into NHL at age 18-19.

The group of players ranked 4 with at least one CHL/AHL season under their belt is probably higger, but a lot of them already have 1-2 seasons of pro hockey experience in Europe (if not in the elite Euro leagues , then at least in the 1st division leagues like Allsvenskan for example) and a bunch of them has actually also experience from senior international level (WHC or Euro Hockey Tour), so just like you said theyīre already developed players.


I know that only the minority of drafted players actually make it to the NHL, but you also have to consider the total number of registred players in these countries.

Letīs just speak about Slovakia for example. It might seem harmless that we had 10-15 players leaving for the CHL every year, but if you consider that this country has less than 8 000 junior players, it definitely hurt Slovak hockey.

It might seem to be a succes if letīs say 2-5 players outta the 10-15 play at least one NHL game, it surely is in one way, but it has way too much negatives.

If we assume that the players who went the CHL route were the countries top players and if not top then at least the better of the players, with so little players in the country it had an immediate efect on the level of the U18/U20 leagues and with that also the level of competition for the younger players who just started to play in the U18/U20 league went down simultaneously with the departure of the players to the CHL. To that you have to count another number of players yearly that left to Czech juniors.


And over a span of few years it has also hurt the senior Extraliga. It is not as big reason as money(or lack of therof), corruption or the "get outta here as soon as you can" attitude of our players, but still it played a big role in things. Because when the unseccesful players returned from the CHL, in most cases there were not immediately good enough to play Extraliga senior hockey or never actually made it further than bottom Extraliga players or 1.liga (Division 1) or some even retired.

Iīm not saying CHL is always the worse choice, but .....

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07-03-2009, 10:49 AM
  #81
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I agree that some of the same issues are involved in the College vs CHL debate, as you point out, the practice-oriented vs game-oriented approach. Although that does not mean, of course, that you can necessarily apply the same conclusions to that debate. It's also a question of the general quality of the development system (for that mater, there are plenty of european systems with little or no proven ability to develop talent for the NHL, despite sharing a general similar philosophy as eh top european systems). I'm not making any judgment on that, but the results need to be looked at separately to get an indication. Also, it's a question of the development systems that precede College (including to what extent those fit with the kind of experience you get in the CHL) and of the content as well as the quantity of practices.

The results of the college route is certainly a very interesting subject that could well be researched more thoroughly. I haven't done that, but my starting general impression would be that College seems to work pretty well as a development route.

cheers

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