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The Hamhuis dilemma? Does he stay or does he go?

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07-01-2009, 09:34 PM
  #1
Enoch
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The Hamhuis dilemma? Does he stay or does he go?

Dan Hamhuis:

- The 'elder' statesman of the Predators.
- Truly one of the few early Predators left.
- A two-way defenseman stuck in a defensive defenseman's role.
- Entering his final year before UFA.
- Currently making 2.5 million dollars with a cap hit of 2 million dollars.
- Skill assessment:
A number 2 defenseman on a good team, well above average with his stick, rarely out of position, plays an intelligent game with few mental gaffes, has the tendency to resort to his stick along the boards rather than playing the body, not overly physical but will throw the occassional hip check, plays a well-rounded offensive game that features a good first pass, average-to-slightly-above-average shot, and mobile/relatively smooth skating style that plays well to a transition game, excellent on the PK, indecesive on the powerplay.

The dilemma: Hamhuis is no longer the backbone of the defense. However, he is the quiet steady presence that makes our second unit work. He made Greg Zanon a millionaire this off-season, and he will make Klein or Sulzer look very good this year. With UFA looming, can the Predators afford another long-term investment? Is it wise to invest heavily in Hamhuis with Suter and Weber finally 'getting it'? If he is resigned, what happens with the Rinne negotiations?

Possible scenarios:

1) Hamhuis is resigned long-term.
For this to get done, I would suspect the Predators would require Dan to sign at slightly below market price. Given how rocky negotiations were the first time, I do not see this happening (see Poile publicly calling Dan and his demands out). I would peg Hamhuis's value on the open market around 4.5-5 million dollars per year. For Hamhuis to be a sound investment for the Predators, I believe they would need to sign him to a deal averaging about 3.5 million dollars annually. To make this work, I would suspect a similar deal to that of Legwand/Erat. In other words, say hello to a 7 year/28-30 million dollar/NMC transaction. Personally, I do not think the Predators can afford this.
2) Hamhuis is kept and allowed to walk at the end of the season.
This is entirely plausible. The Predators are not likely to find a better option on defense at 2.5 million dollars. If management thinks a full season of Sullivan is all this team needs to make it into and compete in the playoffs, trading Hamhuis would be silly. Personally, I see the Predators as a 6-8th round playoff seed contender that needs a bit of luck, some improvement, and no injuries to make it into the playoffs and/or possibly advance.

3) Hamhuis is traded before the season begins.
This has to be a serious, serious option for David Poile. Can he hang on to Dan when there are some glaring orgazinational defecits? With that said, can he afford to deal the lone true veteran of the defense? There is not a right answer here. I would suspect that a trade would bring in more quality than last year's Zidlicky trade. A highly skilled young forward and a draft pick would be the minimum to get this done. Personally, I feel like this is the best option for the Predators. It is time to sink or swim with some of the defensive prospects. It would be prudent to sign a veteran to head up a second unit, and to let Franson/Blum/Laakso try to nail down the 6th spot.

4) Hamhuis is traded at the deadline.
This option is self-explanatory. Personally, I feel like Poile would skip to step number 2 before breaking up team chemistry at that point of the season.
If the Predators do move Hamhuis, I think next year is a bit of a year in flux. With that said, I think it is necessary. The Predators cannot afford to rebuild, but rolling out a weakened team each year is not the answer. Currently we are simply watching our developed talent leave for greener pastures, and the organization has not replaced the departing forward talent adequately. This leaves the team with a dearth of NHL ready talent at forward. By moving Hamhuis for a talented young forward, the team could take a step in a new direction for better or worse.

Thoughts/Analysis......this is going to be a key issue to the Predators future. It affects the Rinne negotiations, FA dealings, and the teams direction in the upcoming years.....

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Last edited by Enoch: 07-01-2009 at 09:59 PM.
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07-01-2009, 09:40 PM
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I hope he stays but with our team drafting young talented d-men sooner or later somebody has to go. I'm afraid that this time it will be Hammer because of the $$ he can get on the open market. So Poile would be good to try and get something for him now IMO.

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07-02-2009, 12:52 AM
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I hope we find a way to keep him but I'm not optimistic. I'll say scenario # 2 is likely. We are fighting for the PO's come trade deadline and decide to hang on to him. Also, i can't see him being traded right now. With Zanon leaving if you trade Hammer all of a sudden your vaunted D starts to look very ordinary. I can see a Sullivan like ordeal next offseason. Dan waits to july 1st. But this time we lose our player and someone signs Dan to a 4.5 to 5 Million per year contract.

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07-02-2009, 05:13 AM
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canucks need a dman to fill the void ohlund has left, what would it take to get hamhuis back to bc?

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07-02-2009, 06:37 AM
  #5
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Komisarek apparently got $4.5M from Toronto, for a comparable.

I wouldn't pay him more than $3.5M, personally. He's not worth more than Suter.


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07-02-2009, 07:48 AM
  #6
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Unless we sign a very solid 2nd pairing dman for a reasonable price, we have no choice but to keep Hamhuis and let him walk next summer. I personally think Hamhuis wants out unless we overpay to keep him. I like worst's number of 3.5 to keep him around, but he is honestly worth more than that.

Hopefully, one of young d prospects will step up big this year playing with Hamhuis, and will be able to hold down the 2nd pairing next season. But in order for this to work Trotz has to give these young guys playing time and a bit of a learning curve. My fear is Poile will sign a cheap vet, similar to de Vries, and Trotz will pair him with Hamhuis, leaving Klein/Sulzer/Franson/etc. with limited playing time.

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07-02-2009, 09:17 AM
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I would rather let Dan walk than threaten the resigning of Suter, Weber, or Rinne.

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07-02-2009, 10:08 AM
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on one hand, he seems like the best trade fodder we have to improve our forwards, but on the other hand, that would mean we'd have to sign TWO cheap veteran defensemen, and I'm not sure we'll do that.

I expect the answer here is "keep him this year, he walks next summer." OR, we give him the Erat\Dumont treatment and re-sign him to some ridiculous deal that handcuffs from being able to sign someone that might actually make a noticeable improvement to the team.

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07-02-2009, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
on one hand, he seems like the best trade fodder we have to improve our forwards, but on the other hand, that would mean we'd have to sign TWO cheap veteran defensemen, and I'm not sure we'll do that.

I expect the answer here is "keep him this year, he walks next summer." OR, we give him the Erat\Dumont treatment and re-sign him to some ridiculous deal that handcuffs from being able to sign someone that might actually make a noticeable improvement to the team.
Agreed

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07-02-2009, 02:54 PM
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First off, I think next offseason could be the craziest off season in the history of the league.

Assuming the economy stays in the tank this season, I really feel like the cap could go down 5+ million. If that scenario becomes a reality, it will be a DIRE situation around the league.

Most teams will be searching to shed salary in any way possible, and certainly wouldn't be able to hand out that kind of money. For the few that may be in a position add salary, there will be all kinds of deals to be had. In this scenario, 5m would be a dream for Dan.

So, option 4 would be to wait it out, hope the cap goes down, and then we can sign Dan at a reasonable price.

Do we have any faith in Poile to even attempt a negotiation with Hamhuis right now? Judging from his negotiation "skills" with Sullivan (http://images.radcity.net/5885/3777732.mp3), and others, I sure don't.

If it's me, I see if we can sign Dan for less than 4 million (with no NMC clause) . With the Heatly situation, I think it will give GMs a negotiation card to not include NMCs.

But I really think Poile should be actively shopping him. Our forwards are top 5 worst in the league. I feel Hamhuis could bring in a nice return if packaged correctly (teams like Boston, Washington).

But yes, it'd leave a hole on defense, and Poile's window to get some decent vets gets smaller every day.

All in all, I fully expect for Poile to wait and see how it plays out. That's what he does best!

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07-02-2009, 02:59 PM
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On another note, can some confirm that Erat & Legwand have NMC's?

Hamhuis for Begergon.
Hamhuis+ for Semin.
Hamhuis+ for Kessell

Bringing in one of those guys would mean moving one of Legwand, Erat.

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07-02-2009, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
First off, I think next offseason could be the craziest off season in the history of the league.

Assuming the economy stays in the tank this season, I really feel like the cap could go down 5+ million. If that scenario becomes a reality, it will be a DIRE situation around the league.

Most teams will be searching to shed salary in any way possible, and certainly wouldn't be able to hand out that kind of money. For the few that may be in a position add salary, there will be all kinds of deals to be had. In this scenario, 5m would be a dream for Dan.

So, option 4 would be to wait it out, hope the cap goes down, and then we can sign Dan at a reasonable price.

Do we have any faith in Poile to even attempt a negotiation with Hamhuis right now? Judging from his negotiation "skills" with Sullivan (http://images.radcity.net/5885/3777732.mp3), and others, I sure don't.

If it's me, I see if we can sign Dan for less than 4 million (with no NMC clause) . With the Heatly situation, I think it will give GMs a negotiation card to not include NMCs.

But I really think Poile should be actively shopping him. Our forwards are top 5 worst in the league. I feel Hamhuis could bring in a nice return if packaged correctly (teams like Boston, Washington).

But yes, it'd leave a hole on defense, and Poile's window to get some decent vets gets smaller every day.

All in all, I fully expect for Poile to wait and see how it plays out. That's what he does best!
Listening to Sully's interview really solidified my distrust in Poile's ability to negotiate with free agents. He almost lost a guy in Sully that really really wanted to stay in Nashville. How is he going to convince guys around the league who are on the fringe about coming here to sign with us. Very disappointing interview.

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Old
07-02-2009, 03:08 PM
  #13
dulzhok
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D Vets still available:

McKee, Zubov, Hnidy, Siendenberg, Boyton, Beachemen, Morris, A. Alberts, Boucher, Vaananen

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07-02-2009, 03:47 PM
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i'd like alberts or mckee, but my money is on someone like seidenberg, unfortunately.

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07-02-2009, 04:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
On another note, can some confirm that Erat & Legwand have NMC's?

Hamhuis for Begergon.
Hamhuis+ for Semin.
Hamhuis+ for Kessell

Bringing in one of those guys would mean moving one of Legwand, Erat.
The only one that MIGHT work would be Bergeron, but I haven't watched him enough.

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07-02-2009, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
On another note, can some confirm that Erat & Legwand have NMC's?

Hamhuis for Begergon.
Hamhuis+ for Semin.
Hamhuis+ for Kessell

Bringing in one of those guys would mean moving one of Legwand, Erat.
Jason Arnott, NSH - NMC
J.P. Dumont, NSH - NMC
Martin Erat, NSH - NMC [starting July 1, 2009]
David Legwand, NSH - NTC

http://www.nhlscap.com/no_trade.htm

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07-02-2009, 04:18 PM
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The only one that MIGHT work would be Bergeron, but I haven't watched him enough.
It depends on what the "+" is.

For example, if you offer Hamhuis + Radulov to WSH for Semin, and Radulov agrees to come back to the NHL, Washington would probably consider it.

If you offer Hamhuis + 1st rd 2010 for Kessel, I thin you get Boston at least thinking about it. After all, they were close to pulling Kaberele+ for Kessel.

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07-02-2009, 06:47 PM
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How are the preds set for wingers? Dallas has alot and it seems the preds have too many dmen, could something be worked out around one of dallas' wingers for hamhuis?

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07-02-2009, 06:50 PM
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How are the preds set for wingers? Dallas has alot and it seems the preds have too many dmen, could something be worked out around one of dallas' wingers for hamhuis?
Brunnstrom or Neal for Hamhuis?

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07-02-2009, 06:58 PM
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Trading him makes really good sense, as you guys could use another good forward. I can think of 2 or 3 teams that might be interested.

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07-03-2009, 11:18 AM
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As a Washington fan, I'd be really interested in the Caps going after Hamhuis in a trade. So I have a few questions to help outline the parameters of a possible deal.

What are the Preds' perceived needs?

Would they favor veterans or young players as part of a return?

Would they be interested in prospects/picks in a trade package?

What specific players (other than Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Green, who aren't getting moved) within the Caps' organization would Nashville potentially be interested in?

Thanks in advance for any responses.

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07-03-2009, 11:37 AM
  #22
barrytrotzsneck
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
As a Washington fan, I'd be really interested in the Caps going after Hamhuis in a trade. So I have a few questions to help outline the parameters of a possible deal.

What are the Preds' perceived needs?

Would they favor veterans or young players as part of a return?

Would they be interested in prospects/picks in a trade package?

What specific players (other than Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Green, who aren't getting moved) within the Caps' organization would Nashville potentially be interested in?

Thanks in advance for any responses.
We need scoring forwards, preferably on reasonable deals.

Two guys that really interest me in Wsh are Semin and Laich. Two guys that interest me less are Fleischmann and Fehr. The first two I would add to the trade, the second two I would think the Caps would need to add.

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07-03-2009, 11:55 AM
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I only see Semin or Laich getting traded if its for someone with more term left (or at least RFA years), so I don't think they're likely in a Hamhuis deal.

Fehr just had double shoulder surgery, so I doubt he'd be of any value.

Fleischmann would be a good start. I was thinking that adding Shaone Morrisonn could work for both sides (provides a decent roster replacement for Nashville and opens up a spot/salary for Washington).

So something to the effect of:

Fleischmann + Morrisonn for Hamhuis

Would the Caps need to add a pick/prospect?

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07-03-2009, 01:09 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
I only see Semin or Laich getting traded if its for someone with more term left (or at least RFA years), so I don't think they're likely in a Hamhuis deal.

Fehr just had double shoulder surgery, so I doubt he'd be of any value.

Fleischmann would be a good start. I was thinking that adding Shaone Morrisonn could work for both sides (provides a decent roster replacement for Nashville and opens up a spot/salary for Washington).

So something to the effect of:

Fleischmann + Morrisonn for Hamhuis

Would the Caps need to add a pick/prospect?
I understand your concern, but it's not like Hamhuis is a UFA right now. 1 year to re-sign him should be more than enough...and I think he'll be one of the prizes of the UFA market if he gets there. I can't imagine he's looking for more than 3.5-4 million a year.

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07-03-2009, 03:14 PM
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Have there been any reports or indications he's being actively shopped right now?

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