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Hudler contract talk; UPD: Agent won't negotiate a deal, Wings will look for UFA

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07-02-2009, 08:31 PM
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oldtimerhockey
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Hudler contract talk; UPD: Agent won't negotiate a deal, Wings will look for UFA

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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
To clarify, Holland fully expects Samuelsson to sign elsewhere. His agent told Kenny that Sammy has received multiple better offers than the one he got here. Sammy is just mulling things over. But his house is for sale, so I don't think one of the things he's contemplating is staying here.

Assuming Samuelsson bolts, I expect Holland will sign Hudler (for 2-2.5M on a short 2-3 year contract) and then he'll sign Leino and call the summer finished.
I think Hudler is going to get north of 3 million a year easily - the Leafs just resigned Grabovski for 2.9 million for 3 years and he had similiar numbers to Hudler with way more ice time. Hudler can score over 30 goals with more ice time.

MOD EDIT: Hudler talk moved from the Samuelsson thread.


Last edited by Heaton: 07-16-2009 at 11:20 AM.
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07-02-2009, 08:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtimerhockey View Post
I think Hudler is going to get north of 3 million a year easily - the Leafs just resigned Grabovski for 2.9 million for 3 years and he had similiar numbers to Hudler with way more ice time. Hudler can score over 30 goals with more ice time.
Hudler's problem is finding comparables for arbitration making well over 3M as you say he will get. It's highly unlikely that a team will offer sheet him for more than 3M since that's the upper limit of the 2nd round pick threshold. No team is going to give up a 1st and 3rd to give Hudler over 3M in an offer sheet. With Grabovski signing at 2.9M, the closest comparable to Hudler, I think you are looking at his price tag on a 1-3 year contract coming in at the 2.5-3M range.

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07-02-2009, 08:54 PM
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You also have to take into account that one contract is from the Leafs and the other potential contract is from the Wings. Not to mention that Jiri absolutely loves it here and doesn't want to go anywhere else. For term similar to what Grabovski got, I imagine $2M-ish would get it done for Jiri.

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07-02-2009, 08:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
Hudler's problem is finding comparables for arbitration making well over 3M as you say he will get. It's highly unlikely that a team will offer sheet him for more than 3M since that's the upper limit of the 2nd round pick threshold. No team is going to give up a 1st and 3rd to give Hudler over 3M in an offer sheet. With Grabovski signing at 2.9M, the closest comparable to Hudler, I think you are looking at his price tag on a 1-3 year contract coming in at the 2.5-3M range.
I thought another team would only have to give Detroit a 3rd rounder?

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07-02-2009, 08:57 PM
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Not at 3M. The compensation levels are listed at the top of the 2nd post in the 2009 Free Agent Tracker thread I made. I'll link it in a sec.....

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07-02-2009, 09:01 PM
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Compensation Table

AmountCompensation
$994,433 or belowNone
$994,434 to $1,506,7163rd
$1,506,717 to $3,013,4342nd
$3,013,435 to $4,520,1501st, 3rd
$4,520,151 to $6,026,8671st, 2nd, 3rd
$6,026,868 to $7,533,5841st (x2), 2nd, 3rd
Over $7,533,5841st (x4)

The upper limit of the 3rd round compensation is roughly 1.5M. At that price the Wings happily match. The upper limit of the 2nd round compensation is 3M. I think Detroit matches that as well, but not happily. Anything above 3M in an offer sheet I think Detroit happily takes the 1st and 3rd picks and uses to ~4M cap space to find a cheaper fill-in in case Leino doesn't develop into a legit top 6 candidate this season.

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07-02-2009, 09:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
Not at 3M. The compensation levels are listed at the top of the 2nd post in the 2009 Free Agent Tracker thread I made. I'll link it in a sec.....
Thanks, didnt know that. That sucks for the players!

I think you are right. It would be a stretch to give him over 3 million AND a 1st, 3rd rounder. But Sather is still in the league!

I think 2.9 million though is potential for other teams. Would Detroit match?

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07-02-2009, 09:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtimerhockey View Post
Thanks, didnt know that. That sucks for the players!

I think you are right. It would be a stretch to give him over 3 million AND a 1st, 3rd rounder. But Sather is still in the league!

I think 2.9 million though is potential for other teams. Would Detroit match?
I think Detroit matches anything up to 3M. Anything above and Detroit takes the 2 picks.

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07-02-2009, 10:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by norrisnick View Post
You also have to take into account that one contract is from the Leafs and the other potential contract is from the Wings. Not to mention that Jiri absolutely loves it here and doesn't want to go anywhere else. For term similar to what Grabovski got, I imagine $2M-ish would get it done for Jiri.
Nope. We thought Fil was only worth $2 MM and Kenny ended up doing one of his 5-yr specials with overpay now to save later.

Hudler would garner a $3-3.5 MM cap hit, all things being equal... Ken thinks he's set aside at least $2.5 MM, which is where he'd like to be but has said Jiri's side is a bit high... I don't see them getting it done for much under $3 MM.

 
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07-02-2009, 10:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Nope. We thought Fil was only worth $2 MM and Kenny ended up doing one of his 5-yr specials with overpay now to save later.

Hudler would garner a $3-3.5 MM cap hit, all things being equal... Ken thinks he's set aside at least $2.5 MM, which is where he'd like to be but has said Jiri's side is a bit high... I don't see them getting it done for much under $3 MM.
Agree - rethinking this with Grabovksi situation. Both were RFAs so Burke offered just what he needed to Grabovski to keep him as he knew no one would offer over 3 million and have to give 1st, 3rd rounders. Suspect the same will happen with Hudler.

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07-03-2009, 03:24 AM
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Hudler likely headng for arbitration, good or bad thing?

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07-03-2009, 03:38 AM
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Sammy deserves $2 mill a year so cant blame him. If Hudler gets signed for $3 mill i'll puke.

I wouldn't give him more then $2.5. That's even pushing it.

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07-03-2009, 03:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Filppula View Post
Hudler likely headng for arbitration, good or bad thing?
bad, because he will get the money based on PP-points and not on how good he is. (or not is)

but if he heads to arbitration i think holland will ship him off. no reason to keep him then.

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07-03-2009, 03:56 AM
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I'd rather lose Hudler than pay him $3 million.

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07-03-2009, 04:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Nope. We thought Fil was only worth $2 MM and Kenny ended up doing one of his 5-yr specials with overpay now to save later.

Hudler would garner a $3-3.5 MM cap hit, all things being equal... Ken thinks he's set aside at least $2.5 MM, which is where he'd like to be but has said Jiri's side is a bit high... I don't see them getting it done for much under $3 MM.
If Hudler signs for 5 years he's more expensive than $2M/yr. 2-3 years? That would be close.

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07-03-2009, 05:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zecke26 View Post
bad, because he will get the money based on PP-points and not on how good he is. (or not is)

but if he heads to arbitration i think holland will ship him off. no reason to keep him then.
Offer-sheet or trade after arbitration, same for me as long as we get some in return.

We don't see Hudler at next year's lineup that's for sure.

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07-03-2009, 07:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Nope. We thought Fil was only worth $2 MM and Kenny ended up doing one of his 5-yr specials with overpay now to save later.

Hudler would garner a $3-3.5 MM cap hit, all things being equal... Ken thinks he's set aside at least $2.5 MM, which is where he'd like to be but has said Jiri's side is a bit high... I don't see them getting it done for much under $3 MM.
Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I think Holland views Hudler and Filppula differently. Flip's abilities are much more consistent with the typical Red Wings top six forward - he's a strong skater, plays a two-way game, and is a center that can also play the wing. I believe that is why Holland was willing to go with the longer term, pay more now and save some later style contract. I don't think Flip has quite lived up to his $3M cap hit, but he's in the ballpark.

With Hudler, there's no doubt he's got oodles of offensive ability, but he isn't the all around player that Flip is. Hudler may never even become a regular in the top six. So, I think Holland is going to be more cautious and offer a shorter term contract with a lower average salary. If after 2 or 3 seasons Hudler has shown that he's worth more, then he'll possibly get a sweeter deal.

Holland has said the two sides aren't far apart. My guess is Holland is offering something in the 2-2.5 per year average while Hudler is looking for something in the 2.5-3 range. I don't think Hudler has the leverage to get everything he wants.

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07-03-2009, 08:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Henkka View Post
Offer-sheet or trade after arbitration, same for me as long as we get some in return.

We don't see Hudler at next year's lineup that's for sure.
If a case goes all the way to the arbiter, you cannot trade the player until 1 year after the decision IIRC. Basically you either accept the dollars the arbiter decides, or you walk away and allow the player to become a UFA.

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07-03-2009, 08:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
If a case goes all the way to the arbiter, you cannot trade the player until 1 year after the decision IIRC. Basically you either accept the dollars the arbiter decides, or you walk away and allow the player to become a UFA.
I think that's if you take the player to arbitration not player elected arbitration. Guys get traded after going to a hearing all the time. IIRC when Dollar Bill was alive not a single player that took the Hawks to arbitration remained with the team afterwards.

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07-03-2009, 08:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by norrisnick View Post
I think that's if you take the player to arbitration not player elected arbitration. Guys get traded after going to a hearing all the time. IIRC when Dollar Bill was alive not a single player that took the Hawks to arbitration remained with the team afterwards.
Different CBA then. I'll try to find the relevant part of the current one. Section 12 deals with arbitrartion but as I recall the part about trading wasn't in there so I'll have to dig.

EDIT: Page 443 of the CBA has an addendum letter re: Group 2 Offer Sheets - Trade Procedures. I think there was something later agreed upon that isn't in the CBA text. I might be getting confused with the Offer Sheets where you cannot trade a player for 1 year after matching an offer sheet.


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07-03-2009, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by The Wing Man View Post
I don't really have anything against hudler but I don't think it's smart to try to keep this team the same for another year. I mean...we did lose, I think we need to get someone with a little more size, speed, and grit. Hudler can pass and he seems to finish a lot of his opportunities (power play specialist) but I don't think his numbers tell the story. In the playoffs, when powerplays are rare, Hudler doesn't play a very big role. He's a shrimp and has a hard time keeping up with the play.
Hudler played a huge role in the last two goals the Wings scored. He was in the crease for Draper's goal in game 6 and assisted on E's goal in game 7. 26 points over the last two playoffs is pretty good for a marginal player...

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07-03-2009, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I think Holland views Hudler and Filppula differently. Flip's abilities are much more consistent with the typical Red Wings top six forward - he's a strong skater, plays a two-way game, and is a center that can also play the wing. I believe that is why Holland was willing to go with the longer term, pay more now and save some later style contract. I don't think Flip has quite lived up to his $3M cap hit, but he's in the ballpark.

With Hudler, there's no doubt he's got oodles of offensive ability, but he isn't the all around player that Flip is. Hudler may never even become a regular in the top six. So, I think Holland is going to be more cautious and offer a shorter term contract with a lower average salary. If after 2 or 3 seasons Hudler has shown that he's worth more, then he'll possibly get a sweeter deal.

Holland has said the two sides aren't far apart. My guess is Holland is offering something in the 2-2.5 per year average while Hudler is looking for something in the 2.5-3 range. I don't think Hudler has the leverage to get everything he wants.
I think you've described how Babs views Hudler, not Holland, other than that they are different.

I tried earlier to point out how good Hudler's numbers were offensively, and if you factor in IT...... well, he's the most under-appreciated Wing in ages! (Except by NN, and some of the other pro-Hudlerites).

Hudler is only behind the top forwards on the team in pts: Dats 97, Z 73, Hossa 71, Franzen 59, Hudler 57...... (Lids and Raffy each have 59 pts)

Whoa! Franzen just got a lifetime contract paying him in real terms $5MM+ for the next seven years. Our friends Cleary, Filppula and Sammy had 40 pts apiece at 14G, 12G and 19G respectively.

To continue with the Franzen comparison points-wise, 34G/25A... Ken thinks he can get to 40G. Let's say he does, we're looking at 40G/30+ A.....70-75 pt guy. Hudler? 23G/34A.

Let's look at IT at ES and PP per game:
Hossa: 13:39 & 3:03 /17:47
Franzen: 14:27 & 2:49/18:06
Fil: 13:33 & 0:47/16:06
Cleary: 13:09 & 1:45/16:56
Sammy: 12:37 & 2:44/15:22
Hudler: 10:37 & 3:01/13:39

Goals by ES and PP:
Hossa: 30 ES & 10 PP
Franzen: 22/11
Dats: 20/11
Z: 17/12
Hudler: 17/6
Sammy: 12/7
Cleary: 11/3
Homer: 6/8
Fil: 11/1

What stands out for me is Hudler's rate of scoring per minutes played at ES. His rate is comparable/better than some of the big stars. To qualify that, yes, I know they play tougher minutes + more situations, so it's not a case of saying Hulder is equal to Z or Franzen! However, among his peer group of forwards, he has less IT at ES but clearly outscores them by a huge margin. On the PP, I'd say he takes the set up guy role. He's third on the list of forwards in Assists (Dats 65, Z 42) with 34. 12A at ES and 22A at PP.

Thus, at ES he normally plays a wing and scores at a fairly good clip! On the PP, he's used as the set up guy and his Assists stat goes way up.

I think the Wings will have a very hard time proving he should only get $2 MM per year. $2.5MM is too low too. All they can say is that THEY don't use him as much as their higher priced vets and thus to this team his value isn't as high. Purely on stats however, his agent is right to put him in the $3-4MM range. Only cap averaging brings that number down to a deal that looks very similar to Filppula's.

 
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07-03-2009, 09:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wing Man View Post
I don't really have anything against hudler but I don't think it's smart to try to keep this team the same for another year. I mean...we did lose, I think we need to get someone with a little more size, speed, and grit. Hudler can pass and he seems to finish a lot of his opportunities (power play specialist) but I don't think his numbers tell the story. In the playoffs, when powerplays are rare, Hudler doesn't play a very big role. He's a shrimp and has a hard time keeping up with the play.
Abdelkader?

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07-03-2009, 09:35 AM
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Sharks re-signed Clowe:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/s...e=NHLHeadlines

Quote:
Ryane Clowe and the San Jose Sharks have agreed to a four-year contract worth north of $3.5 million a season, a source told ESPN.com Thursday night.

The 26-year-old power winger from Newfoundland was a restricted free agent coming off a career-high 22 goals and 52 points in 71 games last season.

Clowe was drafted in the sixth round (175th overall) in 2001 by San Jose.
Obviously, there's a bit of a size difference!

 
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