I'd have a hard time believing that he'd want less than $3 million considering what they paid Flip based on his numbers up to that point. Hudler has been more productive up to this point and has a higher ceiling as far as offensive production is concerned than Filppula.
If you look at a guy like Booth, who had 60 points this year compared to Hudler's 57 and improved his point total from last year by 20 points...Hudler's number increased by 15 points from last year. Booth just signed a 6-year at $4.25 million per year. Another comparable player, Joe Pavelski had a 19 point increase from last year and had a 59-point season this year. He's not a free agent but you could imagine him commanding $4+ million a year if he has another strong year. He's a free agent next year but he's making a half-million more than Hudler right now.
Market value for a player with around Hudler's numbers is in the $4 million range. If that's the case, they can't keep him. Certainly, using Booth as an example is a bit misleading because he's got more value to the Panthers and you have to believe they had to overpay him a bit to keep him happy on a team that just dealt away their franchise defenseman. Booth is the highest paid forward on the team ahead of Nathan Horton. I think Pavelski is a more fair comparison as a guy that is a 4th or 5th offensive option on the team and will likely be paid as such.
If you take what Franzen is going to make against the cap...a shade under $4 million, then that would dictate that Hudler shouldn't be making more. I don't look at Hudler as the 3rd best forward on this team and he shouldn't be paid that way. Putting his cap number over $4 million would be an overvaluing of him to this particular team. Could he get $4 million on the open market? It's possible. I think a fair number for Hudler would $3.4 million a season. The idea of Hudler making a little over $1 million in his last deal could either mean he won't be in line for too great of a raise or he could command more considering he was somewhat underpaid for his production. $3.4 million would be more than tripling his previous salary...that's more than a fair raise for a guy like him.
I'd have a hard time believing that he'd want less than $3 million considering what they paid Flip based on his numbers up to that point. Hudler has been more productive up to this point and has a higher ceiling as far as offensive production is concerned than Filppula.
If you look at a guy like Booth, who had 60 points this year compared to Hudler's 57 and improved his point total from last year by 20 points...Hudler's number increased by 15 points from last year. Booth just signed a 6-year at $4.25 million per year. Another comparable player, Joe Pavelski had a 19 point increase from last year and had a 59-point season this year. He's not a free agent but you could imagine him commanding $4+ million a year if he has another strong year. He's a free agent next year but he's making a half-million more than Hudler right now.
Market value for a player with around Hudler's numbers is in the $4 million range. If that's the case, they can't keep him. Certainly, using Booth as an example is a bit misleading because he's got more value to the Panthers and you have to believe they had to overpay him a bit to keep him happy on a team that just dealt away their franchise defenseman. Booth is the highest paid forward on the team ahead of Nathan Horton. I think Pavelski is a more fair comparison as a guy that is a 4th or 5th offensive option on the team and will likely be paid as such.
If you take what Franzen is going to make against the cap...a shade under $4 million, then that would dictate that Hudler shouldn't be making more. I don't look at Hudler as the 3rd best forward on this team and he shouldn't be paid that way. Putting his cap number over $4 million would be an overvaluing of him to this particular team. Could he get $4 million on the open market? It's possible. I think a fair number for Hudler would $3.4 million a season. The idea of Hudler making a little over $1 million in his last deal could either mean he won't be in line for too great of a raise or he could command more considering he was somewhat underpaid for his production. $3.4 million would be more than tripling his previous salary...that's more than a fair raise for a guy like him.
For 3.4 Million it better come with leg surgery to add another 2 inches.
If Detroit didnt have the cap hanging over its head, people would be clamouring to sign Hudler. You have to look at this from the market's perspective, not just Detroit's.
Why not cut Holmstrom free - trade, buyout? He is obviously done. 19 games without a goal and he was a ghost. Clear cap space and move on. I would also move on Draper and / or Maltby.
Otherwise, this team will slowly erode while being locked in to the cap.
Next season is the last on Holmstrom's contract. I think if Babcock uses him in a part-time role to keep him fresh and healthy he can still be effective. A rotation of Maltby/Draper/Holmstrom with each sitting out around 15-20 games should definitely be something Babcock should think long and hard about. Those players are all still effective to an extent, but with two long playoff runs, a short off-season, and the Olympics all looming they will need to used carefully and given plenty of rest of you'll burn them out before the playoffs.
Next season is the last on Holmstrom's contract. I think if Babcock uses him in a part-time role to keep him fresh and healthy he can still be effective. A rotation of Maltby/Draper/Holmstrom with each sitting out around 15-20 games should definitely be something Babcock should think long and hard about. Those players are all still effective to an extent, but with two long playoff runs, a short off-season, and the Olympics all looming they will need to used carefully and given plenty of rest of you'll burn them out before the playoffs.
ehm...neither of these 3 will be at the olympics. so they get an extra rest.
I'd have a hard time believing that he'd want less than $3 million considering what they paid Flip based on his numbers up to that point. Hudler has been more productive up to this point and has a higher ceiling.....
I understand the points that Fugu and Shoalzie made, but value boils down to more than just goals and assists. Hudler has a niche role on this team. Sure, his production looks very impressive, particularly when you normalize the data by factoring in his IT. But that's saying something - Hudler doesn't get big IT.
Let's look at this past season. Filppula averaged 13:33 ES minutes per game, and 16:06 total minutes / game. Hudler averaged just 10:37 ES minutes per game (less than Helm and Leino) and 13:39 total minutes per game.
Now let's look at 2007-08, before Filppula got his contract. The IT is virtually identical. Flip averaged 13:54 ES minutes per game and 16:57 overall. Hudler averaged 10:27 ES minutes per game and 13:10 overall.
Maybe Holland and Babcock view Hudler differently as Fugu believes, and I'm only looking at this from Babcock's perspective. Babcock utilizes the little guy as basically a PP specialist who gets regular shifts on the 3rd or 4th line, and only semi regular shifts in the 3rd period. Now, it is clear that even though Flip's offensive numbers are inferior, he plays a more vital role.
Ergo, Holland is an idiot if he gives Hudler a contract equal to Flip's. If he does that it will be yet another data point that he's not on the same page as his coach. IMO, if it takes $3M or more to sign Hudler then we should trade him.
Over the years, I've been a proponent of giving guys like Hudler/Flip a chance on scoring lines. I think Leino is going to be pressed into action this year.
What I don't like is this notion that Helm/Abdelkader are somehow offensive players.
Helm, at times, was very good in the playoffs. At times, he sucked. He's a great playoff player because of the energy he brings. At the same time, he's going to be hardpressed to bring that kind of energy in the regular season.
Abdelkader scored a couple flukes. His skating needs work. He's not slow, but he doesn't have burst. I don't think he's all that big a hitter, yet, either.
While Helm has earned a role, I see him as a third/fourth liner next year. Abdelkader, quite honestly, didn't look ready to me.
And with Helm/Leino getting pencilled in, you have to ask yourself just how many rooks you want to add at once.
Some of us don't like the contract Holland gave to Filppula either, BUT.... and a huge, huge but..... (arrrgh, no derriere jokes pls).....
He has called Filppula out a bit, among others. When Hossa left, he said guys like Fil, Cleary, Homer and others will need to step up due to the vacancy just created in the upper echelon. I read this as a bit of "this is your season to earn that contract" type of thing. After next year, IF the scoring isn't replaced and [especially] if the cap doesn't grow, Holland is going to go after some UFA sniper and more cost-effective depth.
Here's one thing to consider, dj. Hossa is gone. Sammy is most likely gone too. If you lose Hudler too, that's 80G+ between the three players. After Z, Dats and Franzen, the team's scoring falls off a cliff. We think Cleary can step it up but the net difference is 10-15 G. Fil needs to get into the 25G range. You've just made up for Hudler's scoring. Sammy and Hossa accounted for 60G. Helm, Leino will make up some of that... So that means the D has to be better than last year.
The more I think about it, the more I feel that you can't lose 3 of your top six goal scorers in one year and not feel some effects. They have to keep Hudler, and/or trade him for someone who can get you close to 20G.
Next season is the last on Holmstrom's contract. I think if Babcock uses him in a part-time role to keep him fresh and healthy he can still be effective. A rotation of Maltby/Draper/Holmstrom with each sitting out around 15-20 games should definitely be something Babcock should think long and hard about. Those players are all still effective to an extent, but with two long playoff runs, a short off-season, and the Olympics all looming they will need to used carefully and given plenty of rest of you'll burn them out before the playoffs.
That seems like an awful lot of useful cap space to rotate 3 old guys past their prime??
IMO, if it takes $3M or more to sign Hudler then we should trade him.
Go up to 2.99 million to stay. If he doesnt want that, then another team will sign him for over 3 million (unless they give him a longer term?) and Detroit gets a 1st and 3rd rounder.....
That seems like an awful lot of useful cap space to rotate 3 old guys past their prime??
In a perfect world I'd agree, but the problem is we're basically stuck with these guys. Draper is under contract for 2 more years and signed it at 35+ so barring a trade (he's got a NTC) you can't get rid of his cap hit. Maltby only has 1 year left on his deal and his value to Detroit in a depth role is IMO greater than the 5th/6th round pick you might be able to deal him for. Holmstrom is here and you can't get rid of him. He's part of the team identity and you risk upsetting the lockerroom chemistry if you trade him or buy him out. I promise you every single Swede on the Wings has the games in Stockholm circled and dumping a fixture like Homer wouldn't sit well with many of them I think. You're essentially stuck with all 3 players until their contracts expire so limiting their games played and the wear-and-tear they take (especially Holmstrom) would seem like a necessary thing to do.
In a perfect world I'd agree, but the problem is we're basically stuck with these guys. Draper is under contract for 2 more years and signed it at 35+ so barring a trade (he's got a NTC) you can't get rid of his cap hit. Maltby only has 1 year left on his deal and his value to Detroit in a depth role is IMO greater than the 5th/6th round pick you might be able to deal him for. Holmstrom is here and you can't get rid of him. He's part of the team identity and you risk upsetting the lockerroom chemistry if you trade him or buy him out. I promise you every single Swede on the Wings has the games in Stockholm circled and dumping a fixture like Homer wouldn't sit well with many of them I think. You're essentially stuck with all 3 players until their contracts expire so limiting their games played and the wear-and-tear they take (especially Holmstrom) would seem like a necessary thing to do.
Sounds a little ominous for the upcoming year. This teams needs a European Vacation (without Chevy Chase) like a hole in the head! Osgood needs a real back up.......
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Flip do the same thing simply to protect from offer sheets?
No, Flip waited awhile for an offer and none came so he filed for arbitration to 1) put Detroit on the clock to get something done and 2) because he had some strong comparable last year that means he would have had a good chance at winning.
No, Flip waited awhile for an offer and none came so he filed for arbitration to 1) put Detroit on the clock to get something done and 2) because he had some strong comparable last year that means he would have had a good chance at winning.
I think they did the same thing that they're doing with Hudler. They made a qualifying offer, considered too low by Fil's camp, so they filed for arbitration. Holland was working on re-signing Stuart and taking a run at Hossa. He'd also completed keeping Lilja around so cap space was going to be a bit tight.
Some of us don't like the contract Holland gave to Filppula either, BUT.... and a huge, huge but..... (arrrgh, no derriere jokes pls).....
He has called Filppula out a bit, among others. When Hossa left, he said guys like Fil, Cleary, Homer and others will need to step up due to the vacancy just created in the upper echelon. I read this as a bit of "this is your season to earn that contract" type of thing. After next year, IF the scoring isn't replaced and [especially] if the cap doesn't grow, Holland is going to go after some UFA sniper and more cost-effective depth.
Here's one thing to consider, dj. Hossa is gone. Sammy is most likely gone too. If you lose Hudler too, that's 80G+ between the three players. After Z, Dats and Franzen, the team's scoring falls off a cliff. We think Cleary can step it up but the net difference is 10-15 G. Fil needs to get into the 25G range. You've just made up for Hudler's scoring. Sammy and Hossa accounted for 60G. Helm, Leino will make up some of that... So that means the D has to be better than last year.
The more I think about it, the more I feel that you can't lose 3 of your top six goal scorers in one year and not feel some effects. They have to keep Hudler, and/or trade him for someone who can get you close to 20G.
That's one way of looking at this. However, I prefer to think of it this way: What would you rather have - Samuelsson for 2-2.5M per season, or Hudler at $3M or more? I'd take Sammy.
Of course, we have already lost Hossa, and necessarily must lose at least one of Hudler or Samuelsson. So, what if we lose all three? I still wouldn't be worried. These are the reasons why.
1. The 2008-09 Wings scored 38 more goals than the Stanley Cup champion 2007-08 team did (we went from 257 to 295). It makes sense because we added Hossa and didn't really lose anyone. We can thus conclude that Hossa's goals were essentially excess. The team did quite well scoring 40 fewer goals, and should do so again even if the D doesn't doesn't play better.
2. A good chunk of the lost scoring can be made up by players who had down seasons. Cleary scored 20 goals in back-to-back seasons, yet only potted 14. Zetterberg's total dropped from 43 to 31. Filppula looked like he was about to break out when he scored 19 goals, but followed that up with only 12. That's a net loss of 25 goals from one season to the next. So we could say that basically all Hudler's 23 goals did is make up for the loss in production from this trio.
These players will all have more opportunity next season. Holland has called upon them to step it up. Hopefully they can get back to their previous levels, making up for Hudler's goals should we not keep him.
3. There's room for growth among several other players. Leino showed a lot of potential and we know he'll be a regular, maybe even in the top six. Could we get 20 goals from Leino? I don't see why not. That would cover Samuelsson's contribution. Additionally, Holland stated he believes Franzen could be a 40 goal scorer. That's reasonable. Helm will be a regular. We know he can score a few.
I think when you look at things in perspective, the truth is we have the talent to absorb these losses. If there was such a thing as having too many highly skilled players, we might have been guilty. There wasn't enough puck to go around, so several players saw their individual numbers suffer. So I would not overpay to keep Hudler. He's just not worth $3M per season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtimerhockey
Go up to 2.99 million to stay. If he doesnt want that, then another team will sign him for over 3 million (unless they give him a longer term?) and Detroit gets a 1st and 3rd rounder.....
Unfortunately, with Hudler opting for arbitration the option of another team floating him an offer is off the table. Holland has these options:
A. He reaches an agreement with Hudler's agent before the arbitration judgment is handed down.
B. The case makes it all the way through arbitration, and Holland has to decide whether he accepts the ruling or relinquishes his rights to Hudler.
C. He trades Hudler before the case goes to arbitration.
