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Hudler contract talk; UPD: Agent won't negotiate a deal, Wings will look for UFA

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Old
07-03-2009, 01:10 PM
  #51
ShanahanMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Over the years, I've been a proponent of giving guys like Hudler/Flip a chance on scoring lines. I think Leino is going to be pressed into action this year.
What I don't like is this notion that Helm/Abdelkader are somehow offensive players.
Helm, at times, was very good in the playoffs. At times, he sucked. He's a great playoff player because of the energy he brings. At the same time, he's going to be hardpressed to bring that kind of energy in the regular season.
Abdelkader scored a couple flukes. His skating needs work. He's not slow, but he doesn't have burst. I don't think he's all that big a hitter, yet, either.
While Helm has earned a role, I see him as a third/fourth liner next year. Abdelkader, quite honestly, didn't look ready to me.
And with Helm/Leino getting pencilled in, you have to ask yourself just how many rooks you want to add at once.



100% agree. We've lost TWO 20+ goal scorers in free agency so far, we need to make up for at least ONE of them. We can't just assume that GR kids will have amazing breakout seasons and older veterans will rebound. We need to sign a 2nd/3rd line forward and a 4th line grinder. THEN I'll be happy.

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07-03-2009, 01:30 PM
  #52
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I can't read through this whole thread but Hudler is a great offensive talent and he has been very clutch for us. He was part of some really important plays this season. He was the reason for the gwg in game 4 against CBJ. I think we really can't lose Hudler because we will have alot more trouble scoring next season and alot less depth, especially after losing Hossa already. Can we really afford to lose 2 of our top 5 scoring forwards next season?

Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom
Franzen - Filpulla - Leino
Cleary - Helm - ???
Maltby - Draper - ???

We have very little depth and we don't have any cap space to sign anyone to fill the gaps so we would probably have to bring up the likes of Abby and Ritola. What would happen if Malts/Drapes/Holmer go down? HTD or Ryno? their aren't many options. Maybe if we can pick up a grinder or 2 cheap in free agency but still their will be major gaps offensively.

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07-03-2009, 01:33 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r0bert8841 View Post
I can't read through this whole thread but Hudler is a great offensive talent and he has been very clutch for us. He was part of some really important plays this season. He was the reason for the gwg in game 4 against CBJ. I think we really can't lose Hudler because we will have alot more trouble scoring next season and alot less depth, especially after losing Hossa already. Can we really afford to lose 2 of our top 5 scoring forwards next season?

Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom
Franzen - Filpulla - Leino
Cleary - Helm - ???
Maltby - Draper - ???

We have very little depth and we don't have any cap space to sign anyone to fill the gaps so we would probably have to bring up the likes of Abby and Ritola. What would happen if Malts/Drapes/Holmer go down? HTD or Ryno? their aren't many options. Maybe if we can pick up a grinder or 2 cheap in free agency but still their will be major gaps offensively.
First season as a regular and you expect Leino to fill a 2nd line role? Keep dreaming bud. But yea, I do agree with you that we have little options. Maybe re-sign Huds at 2.25, pick up a solid 3rd liner for 1.25-1.5 and pick up a grinder (Moen) at 750k plus incentives. Thats the best I can come up with.

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07-03-2009, 01:33 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Over the years, I've been a proponent of giving guys like Hudler/Flip a chance on scoring lines. I think Leino is going to be pressed into action this year.
What I don't like is this notion that Helm/Abdelkader are somehow offensive players.
Helm, at times, was very good in the playoffs. At times, he sucked. He's a great playoff player because of the energy he brings. At the same time, he's going to be hardpressed to bring that kind of energy in the regular season.
Abdelkader scored a couple flukes. His skating needs work. He's not slow, but he doesn't have burst. I don't think he's all that big a hitter, yet, either.
While Helm has earned a role, I see him as a third/fourth liner next year. Abdelkader, quite honestly, didn't look ready to me.
And with Helm/Leino getting pencilled in, you have to ask yourself just how many rooks you want to add at once.
I completely agree re Helm. He hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can bring in the regular season. In 2007/08 he looked good in his stint, last season not so much. His +/- was a concern too. He will struggle to bring the same energy which has made him so successful in the playoffs but I am confident that he will develop his game and given he KNOWS he has a full season in Detroit ahead of him I bet he's going to have a pretty decent rookie season. I expect him to put up similar numbers to Filppula's rookie season.

As for Abdelkader, ask the Griffins fans who saw him on a weekly basis and they will tell you that he WAS a big hitter. He will hit, he will bring energy, he can score, and he will be a very good player for Detroit. I think people underrate how good this guy could be. He's shown the ability to play the Holmstrom type role on the PP, he is a great leader and he's stepped it up every single year since being drafted. He'll be one of the leaders for the Griffins next year and should have a huge season.

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07-03-2009, 01:35 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShanahanMan View Post
First season as a regular and you expect Leino to fill a 2nd line role? Keep dreaming bud.
We wouldn't have any other options... which was my point because that would be Hudler's spot if we resign him.

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07-03-2009, 01:39 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by r0bert8841 View Post
I can't read through this whole thread but Hudler is a great offensive talent and he has been very clutch for us. He was part of some really important plays this season. He was the reason for the gwg in game 4 against CBJ. I think we really can't lose Hudler because we will have alot more trouble scoring next season and alot less depth, especially after losing Hossa already. Can we really afford to lose 2 of our top 5 scoring forwards next season?

Datsyuk - Zetterberg - Holmstrom
Franzen - Filpulla - Leino
Cleary - Helm - ???
Maltby - Draper - ???

We have very little depth and we don't have any cap space to sign anyone to fill the gaps so we would probably have to bring up the likes of Abby and Ritola. What would happen if Malts/Drapes/Holmer go down? HTD or Ryno? their aren't many options. Maybe if we can pick up a grinder or 2 cheap in free agency but still their will be major gaps offensively.
Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.1m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($2.2m)
Daniel Cleary ($2.8m) / Valtteri Filppula ($3.0m) / Johan Franzen ($4.0m)
Jiri Hudler ($2.3m) / Darren Helm ($0.6m) / Ville Leino ($1.0m)
Kirk Maltby ($0.9m) / Kris Draper ($1.6m) / Matt Ellis/UFA ($0.5m)

That's the best I can do. It just fits under the cap. I don't mind that line-up.

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07-03-2009, 01:45 PM
  #57
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Matt Ellis? Why in the world would we go back to him? Take a half mil chance on someone that can possibly develop into something.

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07-03-2009, 01:47 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by norrisnick View Post
Matt Ellis? Why in the world would we go back to him? Take a half mil chance on someone that can possibly develop into something.
especially with a cheap ritola on farm. he should be as good as matt ellis.

or what about ryan oulahen? shouldn't be worse than ellis.

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07-03-2009, 01:51 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
If the Wings lose Hossa, Sammy andHudler, we do not have the talent to absorb that.
Leino ... maybe replaces Sammy or Hudler and that's it.
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Originally Posted by last_sd View Post
did anyone actually expect us to be in same talent level this year as last year ?

of course we will be less talented since now Z and Franzen makes a lot more money
This is where the loyalty contracts are really hurting the Wings. There's room for the kids regardless. What Holland basically did was to put himself at risk for losing 3 of the top six scoring forwards so that Malts, Drapes and Homer still have spots. Heck, Maltby's contract is pretty low so you almost don't worry but the Homer and Draper contracts are starting to look bad given how the year went for these two (especially Draper). Is keeping Draper worth losing Sammy? No way.

 
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07-03-2009, 01:53 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Filppula View Post
Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.1m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($2.2m)
Daniel Cleary ($2.8m) / Valtteri Filppula ($3.0m) / Johan Franzen ($4.0m)
Jiri Hudler ($2.3m) / Darren Helm ($0.6m) / Ville Leino ($1.0m)
Kirk Maltby ($0.9m) / Kris Draper ($1.6m) / Matt Ellis/UFA ($0.5m)

That's the best I can do. It just fits under the cap. I don't mind that line-up.
You're okay at home, but on the road, the opposition coach would have this line for lunch. There's a reason Draper and Maltby had the worst +/- on the Wings, and Drapes was one of the worst in the NHL.

 
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07-03-2009, 02:08 PM
  #61
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That's one way of looking at this. However, I prefer to think of it this way: What would you rather have - Samuelsson for 2-2.5M per season, or Hudler at $3M or more? I'd take Sammy.

Of course, we have already lost Hossa, and necessarily must lose at least one of Hudler or Samuelsson. So, what if we lose all three? I still wouldn't be worried. These are the reasons why.

1. The 2008-09 Wings scored 38 more goals than the Stanley Cup champion 2007-08 team did (we went from 257 to 295). It makes sense because we added Hossa and didn't really lose anyone. We can thus conclude that Hossa's goals were essentially excess. The team did quite well scoring 40 fewer goals, and should do so again even if the D doesn't doesn't play better.

2. A good chunk of the lost scoring can be made up by players who had down seasons. Cleary scored 20 goals in back-to-back seasons, yet only potted 14. Zetterberg's total dropped from 43 to 31. Filppula looked like he was about to break out when he scored 19 goals, but followed that up with only 12. That's a net loss of 25 goals from one season to the next. So we could say that basically all Hudler's 23 goals did is make up for the loss in production from this trio.
The 2008 team gave up 175 goals, while in 2009 it was 235 GA. The GAA was 2.12 vs 2.84. SOG from 08 to 09: 1926 v 2269; Goals scored 252 v 289.

Percentage-wise, they gave up 34% more goals on 18% more shots allowed, while increasing scoring by 15%. Another way to express the scoring diff, the GAA increased by 34%.

To compare the 2009-10 team's scoring to 2008 means you need to expect a similar level of defensive play. I guess I don't see how they make that happen with the rookies they're bringing in, the loss of Sammy and the decline of Draper, Malby and Homer.

Edit: dj, are you just using regular season numbers? Mine are different.

 
Old
07-03-2009, 02:44 PM
  #62
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Oops. My calculation appears to include shoot out win phantom "goals". That's the discrepancy.

About the goals against, I think that is much more the product of worse goaltending than of worse defense. For sure there were games where the D was sloppy and mistake prone. But Osgood was horrible for much of the regular season, way worse than Hasek was the prior year. Conklin was OK, but is not as good of a backup as Osgood was.

So I think if Osgood has a better year and Howard (or whoever) plays OK then our goals against should fall pretty dramatically. Maybe not all the way to 07-08 levels, but we should be able to make a solid 15-20% improvement without too much trouble with a strong possibility of doing even better than that.

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07-03-2009, 02:49 PM
  #63
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Stuart and Kronwall were brutual during the regular season and so was Rafalski. It was both the defense and goaltenders fault for our terrible GAs numbers.

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07-03-2009, 02:55 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
I understand the points that Fugu and Shoalzie made, but value boils down to more than just goals and assists. Hudler has a niche role on this team. Sure, his production looks very impressive, particularly when you normalize the data by factoring in his IT. But that's saying something - Hudler doesn't get big IT.

Let's look at this past season. Filppula averaged 13:33 ES minutes per game, and 16:06 total minutes / game. Hudler averaged just 10:37 ES minutes per game (less than Helm and Leino) and 13:39 total minutes per game.

Now let's look at 2007-08, before Filppula got his contract. The IT is virtually identical. Flip averaged 13:54 ES minutes per game and 16:57 overall. Hudler averaged 10:27 ES minutes per game and 13:10 overall.

Maybe Holland and Babcock view Hudler differently as Fugu believes, and I'm only looking at this from Babcock's perspective. Babcock utilizes the little guy as basically a PP specialist who gets regular shifts on the 3rd or 4th line, and only semi regular shifts in the 3rd period. Now, it is clear that even though Flip's offensive numbers are inferior, he plays a more vital role.

Ergo, Holland is an idiot if he gives Hudler a contract equal to Flip's. If he does that it will be yet another data point that he's not on the same page as his coach. IMO, if it takes $3M or more to sign Hudler then we should trade him.
I think this sums up my feelings too. I wouldnt even like if we payed him more than 2.5

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07-03-2009, 03:00 PM
  #65
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SA/game also increased for most (every?) team.

GuloGulo pointed out the change to offensive zone faceoffs on PP's.

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07-03-2009, 03:02 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Filppula View Post
Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.1m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($2.2m)
Daniel Cleary ($2.8m) / Valtteri Filppula ($3.0m) / Johan Franzen ($4.0m)
Jiri Hudler ($2.3m) / Darren Helm ($0.6m) / Ville Leino ($1.0m)
Kirk Maltby ($0.9m) / Kris Draper ($1.6m) / Matt Ellis/UFA ($0.5m)

That's the best I can do. It just fits under the cap. I don't mind that line-up.
Please, get Holmstrom off of the top line and replace him with either Cleary or Franzen -- preferably Cleary.

Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Cleary
Hudler/Filppula/Franzen
Abdelkader/Helm/Leino
Maltby/Draper/Holmstrom

There, cap-friendly and balanced.

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07-03-2009, 03:03 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Filppula View Post
I completely agree re Helm. He hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can bring in the regular season. In 2007/08 he looked good in his stint, last season not so much. His +/- was a concern too. He will struggle to bring the same energy which has made him so successful in the playoffs but I am confident that he will develop his game and given he KNOWS he has a full season in Detroit ahead of him I bet he's going to have a pretty decent rookie season. I expect him to put up similar numbers to Filppula's rookie season.

As for Abdelkader, ask the Griffins fans who saw him on a weekly basis and they will tell you that he WAS a big hitter. He will hit, he will bring energy, he can score, and he will be a very good player for Detroit. I think people underrate how good this guy could be. He's shown the ability to play the Holmstrom type role on the PP, he is a great leader and he's stepped it up every single year since being drafted. He'll be one of the leaders for the Griffins next year and should have a huge season.

In 76 games in GR he had 24 goals and 10 playoff games he had 6... he CAN score

I agree he can play physical if asked to play that role, but from the games I was at, I also saw a lot of undisciplined penalties.

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07-03-2009, 03:04 PM
  #68
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You're okay at home, but on the road, the opposition coach would have this line for lunch. There's a reason Draper and Maltby had the worst +/- on the Wings, and Drapes was one of the worst in the NHL.
Or howabout this line?
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Jiri Hudler ($2.3m) / Darren Helm ($0.6m) / Ville Leino ($1.0m)

Eaten alive.

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07-03-2009, 03:26 PM
  #69
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Or howabout this line?

Jiri Hudler ($2.3m) / Darren Helm ($0.6m) / Ville Leino ($1.0m)

Eaten alive.
Helm has wheels and will probably be a pretty good two-way guy when it's all said and done. Hudler and Leino though? I think Babs would induce nightmares in himself just thinking about it.

 
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07-03-2009, 03:38 PM
  #70
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Helm has wheels and will probably be a pretty good two-way guy when it's all said and done. Hudler and Leino though? I think Babs would induce nightmares in himself just thinking about it.
yeah, that line would suck pretty much. helm skates deep and while he's already at the opposite goal, leino and hudler would not have even reached the red line.

leino - helm - cleary on the other hand could work. hudler would have to play again with fil and franzen, but he proved he can do that. fil usually saves his butt.

dats - z - homer (only if homer rebounds)
hudler - fil - franzen
leino - helm - cleary
4th line trash (whoever babs wants to play)

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07-03-2009, 10:26 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
For 3.4 Million it better come with leg surgery to add another 2 inches.
Seriously. Hudler is just as much a specialty guy as Homer has been and their deals should be similar - which is why I'd be fine with him making $2.5m. Much more than that, and I think it's time to explore a cheaper UFA option. There is always a good player or two who simply doesn't get signed or overlooked who can rack up goals in the right situation. If Hudler's price tag risks shooting up, cut him loose and look to sign one of these guys looking for a contract and a situation to improve their value.

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07-03-2009, 11:05 PM
  #72
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Holland is stealing my material.

Posted around noon today...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
@dj
...
Here's one thing to consider, dj. Hossa is gone. Sammy is most likely gone too. If you lose Hudler too, that's 80G+ between the three players. After Z, Dats and Franzen, the team's scoring falls off a cliff. We think Cleary can step it up but the net difference is 10-15 G. Fil needs to get into the 25G range. You've just made up for Hudler's scoring. Sammy and Hossa accounted for 60G. Helm, Leino will make up some of that... So that means the D has to be better than last year.
And Khan! reports this evening:

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index....ns_threey.html

Quote:
"We'll let the market settle a bit and later in the summer we'll see what cheaper players are out there," Holland said. "Right now, if we start the season, it appears (Abdelkader) will make the team. He's real close to being an NHL player, but we like to get some depth in the organization and create some competition for jobs.''

Leino, 25, is a skilled offensive player who, because of the cap, spent most of last season with Grand Rapids, where he had 15 goals and 31 assists in 57 games and 13 points in 10 playoff games. He was impressive during his 13 games with Detroit (five goals, four assists).

"We lost 60 goals (with Hossa and Samuelsson)," Holland said. "Hopefully we can get a deal done with Jiri."

 
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07-04-2009, 12:54 AM
  #73
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The Wings are in a bad situation with Hudler. They can't really afford to let him go because there's no way to replace the offense he contributed especially with Hossa gone but at the same time it's real easy to overpay a guy like Hudler and that's the kind of contract that could screw you in a cap league.

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07-04-2009, 03:02 AM
  #74
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You're okay at home, but on the road, the opposition coach would have this line for lunch. There's a reason Draper and Maltby had the worst +/- on the Wings, and Drapes was one of the worst in the NHL.
What are you gonna do though??? Both are contracted, and Ellis, meh, pick another forward but that line is similar to how it'll look.

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07-04-2009, 06:34 AM
  #75
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Here is a problem with Huds going to arbitration...he wants more then 2.5M...say he ges 3million. There is a rule already mentioned in this thread that when a player goes to abritration, the team cannot trade him for one year if they end honoring the arbitration value, unless they decline to pay the arbitrated amount, and in this case he becomes a UFA. The link to the article posted earlier on in this thread, regarding Hudler being traded if they dont like what the Arbiter awards him, is wrong. I posted an article on letsgowings a couple weeks ago, showing with nhl rules (unless i read it wrong) that he cannot be traded for one year after the wings choose to sign him to the abritration amount. Now here is the problem I was getting at earlier in the post...If we have to pay him 3m and keep him on the roster for a year, it puts us well over the cap(1Million) for a 22man roster, and well cause we cant trade him, and we are over the cap we have to move someone else already on the roster and replace them with a cheaper player. Not good. Hudler is going to hurt the team by doing this. The only guys that can really provide the extra salary is if Homer retires or we trade flip or Kronwall or homer and replace with a cheap player. We can just fit Hudler in with a 2M salary with a 22 man roster, leaving us with 225K in cap space, with Lilja on the LTIR Meech taking the role as a 7th Dman, and Rittola taking a forward spot which I'm not sure hes ready. Crunching the numbers doesnt paint a pretty picture if Huds gets a big raise to 3M or above.


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