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Hudler contract talk; UPD: Agent won't negotiate a deal, Wings will look for UFA

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07-06-2009, 06:39 AM
  #101
HockeyinHD
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Originally Posted by RedMenace View Post
Perhaps I just lack the mental capacity, but how can anyone say $2.5M / year for Hudler is overpayment?
Because 2.5 mil is obviously too much for a guy who can't play in the top 6. People are going nuts about Homer's money this year and it's less than that, and Homer's probably less of an ES liability than Hudler is.

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Also, Samuelsson a better fit on the Wings? That's absolute insanity... he plays a north/south game, and the Wings are very east/west -- which Hudler fits more than Samuelsson ever would.
Hudler can't be trusted in prime time at ES. At least, Babcock doesn't trust him... which I'll take as a fairly unbiased assessment of his game, or at the very least a more studied and comprehensive opinion than Joe Messageboard Guy.

The only way a 2+ deal becomes even remotely acceptable is if Holland thinks there is some upside to Hudler's game. Based on what he is right now, there's no way he's worth it. The thing is, I don't see where that upside is with Jiri. He's the same guy now he was three years ago. Put him on the PP or against 4th liners and he can produce. Put him against better opposition and he disappears. He's still a weakness at ES, and at the end of games in question his butt gets glued to the bench with about 5 minutes to go.

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07-06-2009, 06:43 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by detredWINgs View Post
At 1.5 mil or less = Tomas Kopecky, Colton Orr, Donald Brashear, Vern Fiddler
At 1.5-2.0 = Chris Neil, Chad Larose, Dvorak, Jokinen
At 2.0+ = Sammy Pahlsson, Mike Knuble, Mikael Samuelsson

So lets re-phrase that:

At 1.5 mil or less = Out of this world underpayment
At 1.5-2.0 = Steal of a deal
At 2.0+ = Sensible deal
Except Hudler's not as good as any of the guys you listed at 2.0+, while he's barely equivalent to the guys you listed at 1.5.

That's kind of a problem.

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07-06-2009, 06:48 AM
  #103
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My favorite knock against Hudler is that hes "never going to be a top forward". How many points do Wings fans think most "top 6" players put up? I can guarantee there isn't a team in the league that has 6 forwards who all put up 57+ points.

Hudler is a 3rd line forward that scores at the pace of a 2nd liner.
...because he gets a boatload of PP time on a PP that was elite wayyyy before he got on it.

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That, in it of itself, is an asset. When you give a guy 13 minutes a game and hes producing as though hes getting 17, thats a bonus. I dont care if hes a PP specialist or not, players that make productive use of their ice time are never to be discounted.
I don't think Hudler's being 'discounted', I think he's being fairly assessed. The primary problem with Hudler's game is that he lacks speed and defensive commitment. He's a top-end offensive talent, but those weaknesses really impact his value to a team like Detroit.

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PS. If Hudler were an even 6'0, nobody would be questioning his value.
Robert Lang is well over 6'0 and people questioned his value, and he was at least as productive as Hudler has ever been.

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07-06-2009, 07:37 AM
  #104
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You need to look at this through the market's lens

What Detroit wants to pay Hudler (primarily because of the cap issues) arent really that significant except as opinions. If the the other team's value him at XX, he will get paid XX.


Does the fact that Hudler has filed for arbitration change the compensation due to Detroit if another team signs him??

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07-06-2009, 08:22 AM
  #105
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@HD. Hudler has a boatload of assists on the PP. Goals? Not so much.

Oh, you're going to be the happiest guy on the board after this blurb, multi-year deal even:

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Holland said he remains hopeful that a longer deal can be worked out with Hudler's agent, Petr Svoboda, so the arbitration hearing won't be necessary.

"Ville Leino's agent and I are really close," Holland said about reaching a new deal. "I'm hoping to finish that off early in the week and go to work on Hudler."

Hudler is expected to receive a significant raise from the $1.15 million he earned last season after scoring 23 goals and 34 assists in 82 games -- $3 million to $4 million.

Holland said he expects to be at or over the salary cap after signing the two players.

And a defenseman will need to be traded. Hudler at $2.5 cap hit, Leino at $1 MM puts the team $600K over the cap. Trading Meech or Lebda won't be enough. If Hudler's cap hit is $3MM, trading Lilja and keeping Meech isn't enough as the team is then $270K over the cap.....

I have a hard time justifying trading anyone higher on the D food chain, or losing two lower D in order to pay Hudler what he's worth on the market.

 
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07-06-2009, 08:59 AM
  #106
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Is Hudler forced to sign the deal the arbitration process chooses? I know Detroit can walk away and that makes Hudler a UFA.

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07-06-2009, 09:11 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by oldtimerhockey View Post
Is Hudler forced to sign the deal the arbitration process chooses? I know Detroit can walk away and that makes Hudler a UFA.
A player is bound by the result of the process. Whoever decides to file for arbitration gives the other side the right to select whether the term of the award will be 1- or 2-yrs, unless a player is 1 yr away from becoming an UFA, at which point it's only for 1-yr. A team can walk away from an award in a player-elected arbitration process, under some specific limits for the reward amount, etc. The player then becomes an UFA. (Article 12 of the CBA gets into all the verbiage, in great abundance thanks to lawyers being involved.)

 
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07-06-2009, 10:40 AM
  #108
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Does Hudler really have enough comparables as RFA's signs to garner 4M? I expect 3M/season is pretty much what he'd get.

At 4M you really have to look at trading a defenseman AND a forward unless you use a buyout.

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07-06-2009, 10:49 AM
  #109
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Accord to Cap geek with following numbers they are over the cap. Folks we are in CAP HELL:

Pavel Datsyuk $6,700,000
Henrik Zetterberg $6,083,333
Johan Franzen $3,954,545
Valtteri Filppula $3,000,000
Daniel Cleary $2,800,000
* Jiri Hudler $2,750,000
Tomas Holmstrom $2,250,000
Kris Draper $1,583,333
* Ville Leino $$800K
Kirk Maltby $883,333
Justin Abdelkader $850,000
Darren Helm $599,444
DEFENSEMEN
Nicklas Lidstrom $7,450,000
Brian Rafalaski $6,000,000
Brad Stuart $3,750,000
Niklas Kronwall $3,000,000
Jonathan Ericsson $900,000
Brett Lebda $650,000
GOALTENDERS
Chris Osgood $1,416,666
Jimmy Howard $716,666
BUYOUTS
NONE
LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS
NONE
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (including bonuses)
ROSTER SIZE 20
SALARY CAP $56,800,000
PAYROLL $$55,120,653
BONUS MONEY (ESTIMATED) (0.2% of cap) $110,000
CAP ROOM $$1,679,347
CAP ROOM PER OPEN SPOT$839,674


Last edited by Fugu: 07-06-2009 at 01:17 PM. Reason: fixed the cap numbers
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07-06-2009, 11:39 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
Does Hudler really have enough comparables as RFA's signs to garner 4M? I expect 3M/season is pretty much what he'd get.

At 4M you really have to look at trading a defenseman AND a forward unless you use a buyout.
I think $4MM is a stretch, especially with salary averaging. He might have a deal that looks very similar to Filppula's, perhaps a tad bit higher-- much to the chagrin of the naysayers. Simply put, goal scoring does carry its own premium. Look at Hossa and Franzen.

 
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07-06-2009, 11:42 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I think $4MM is a stretch, especially with salary averaging. He might have a deal that looks very similar to Filppula's, perhaps a tad bit higher-- much to the chagrin of the naysayers. Simply put, goal scoring does carry it's own premium. Look at Hossa and Franzen.
can kenny trade him after arbitration? or does he have to do it now?

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07-06-2009, 11:42 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I think $4MM is a stretch, especially with salary averaging. He might have a deal that looks very similar to Filppula's, perhaps a tad bit higher-- much to the chagrin of the naysayers. Simply put, goal scoring does carry it's own premium. Look at Hossa and Franzen.
How can he possibly make as much as Franzen?????

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07-06-2009, 11:45 AM
  #113
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can kenny trade him after arbitration? or does he have to do it now?
I believe the Wings can trade his rights immediately after the ruling. The next team then has the option of accepting the ruling and thus keeping him for the 1- or 2-yr period that was picked before the hearing. Either team can walk away, which means Hudler becomes an UFA. I don't see a team trading for his rights only to walk away from the award though, so not sure why the CBA has that in the article.


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Originally Posted by yooper wings fan View Post
How can he possibly make as much as Franzen?????
I did say it would be a stretch to suggest his cap hit should be $4 MM. Franzen's market value is higher, in the $5-6 MM range. The only reason the cap hit is $4 MM is due to the four years Kenny added to stretch the cap number out. That's why Johan has a lifetime contract.

 
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07-06-2009, 11:46 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by yooper wings fan View Post
How can he possibly make as much as Franzen?????
He wont get anywhere near 4M. But if the obvious needs to be stated, if in some strange world he got 4M, it would be because its a 1-2 year contract, not 10-12 years. Franzen is making significantly more than 7.9M for the next 2 years.

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07-06-2009, 11:52 AM
  #115
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Because 2.5 mil is obviously too much for a guy who can't play in the top 6. People are going nuts about Homer's money this year and it's less than that, and Homer's probably less of an ES liability than Hudler is.

Hudler can play in the top 6. And Homer is by far the bigger ES liability.

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Hudler can't be trusted in prime time at ES. At least, Babcock doesn't trust him... which I'll take as a fairly unbiased assessment of his game, or at the very least a more studied and comprehensive opinion than Joe Messageboard Guy.
Babcock has access to 3 Selke nominees and a couple other guys who have established themselves as premier two-way players. Of course Hudler isn't going to be the go-to guy for defensive responsibilities on the deepest two-way team in the NHL.

Thats like saying Shane Doan can't be trusted to put up points, since he was on the checking line during past Olympics for Team Canada.

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The only way a 2+ deal becomes even remotely acceptable is if Holland thinks there is some upside to Hudler's game. Based on what he is right now, there's no way he's worth it. The thing is, I don't see where that upside is with Jiri. He's the same guy now he was three years ago. Put him on the PP or against 4th liners and he can produce. Put him against better opposition and he disappears. He's still a weakness at ES, and at the end of games in question his butt gets glued to the bench with about 5 minutes to go.
I'm glad you're willing to trust Babcock when it supports your argument, but aren't willing to trust Holland when it doesn't support your argument.

Really, the anti-Hudler shtick is making you look like a fool. Anyone in their right mind knows Hudler is worth 2.5M. 3-4? Not so much. But 2.5M is a solid deal for a 25 year old capable of 20 goals and 55 points.

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07-06-2009, 11:54 AM
  #116
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I believe the Wings can trade his rights immediately after the ruling. The next team then has the option of accepting the ruling and thus keeping him for the 1- or 2-yr period that was picked before the hearing. Either team can walk away, which means Hudler becomes an UFA.
ok, so in case he gets a ridiculous ruling (2.5+), it's still possible to trade him. good to know. so i can still have hope.

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I don't see a team trading for his rights only to walk away from the award though, so not sure why the CBA has that in the article.
you did realize that chicago and tampa bay are part of the NHL?

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07-06-2009, 12:01 PM
  #117
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Really, the anti-Hudler shtick is making you look like a fool. Anyone in their right mind knows Hudler is worth 2.5M. 3-4? Not so much. But 2.5M is a solid deal for a 25 year old capable of 20 goals and 55 points.
That's what I've been trying to say, thank you. $2.5M-$3M is the upper limit for him at this point. If he's looking for more than that, he can find it elsewhere -- and I'm one of the biggest Hudler supporters on this board. If he were to take a deal in that range for long term (hopefully front-loaded to get the cap hit lower), that would be a great contract.

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07-06-2009, 12:03 PM
  #118
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i think Hudler at 2.5M is a fair deal
besides is there anyone who we can sign if we don't sign Hudler ?
the players that can put up Hudler's number would cost way more (koivu, kovy, tangay)

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07-06-2009, 12:04 PM
  #119
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...because he gets a boatload of PP time on a PP that was elite wayyyy before he got on it.
Again, you're going to pick and choose when Babcock's views support your argument, and ignore other instances where they don't? He gets a boatload of PP time because hes a great offensive asset, and Babcock recognizes that. And the fact that the PP was elite "wayyyy" before he got on it is a load of crap. Everyone knows special teams vary from year to year. The 2nd PP unit was successful this year because Hudler was a part of it, not in spite of it.

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I don't think Hudler's being 'discounted', I think he's being fairly assessed. The primary problem with Hudler's game is that he lacks speed and defensive commitment. He's a top-end offensive talent, but those weaknesses really impact his value to a team like Detroit.
This notion that Hudler "lacks defensive commitment" is a result of your clouded vision. Plain and simple, if Hudler lacked defensive commitment, he would have been traded or benched by now. The very fact that Babcock has given him increasingly more ice time over the years when he initially publicly stated that Hudler wouldn't be a Red Wing if he didn't work on the defensive end of things in his first season here says a lot.

You're simply making the assumption that because Hudler is down on the list for defensive responsibilities, that hes subpar defensively. And you can see my Shane Doan comment for why thats an incorrect assumption.

Finally, if Hudler were a great two-way player and a great skater, then we'd be paying him 5M, not 2.5.

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Robert Lang is well over 6'0 and people questioned his value, and he was at least as productive as Hudler has ever been.
Yes, people questioned his value because he was making 5M, which was then discounted to 3.8 under the salary cap. If he had been making 2.5M, people wouldn't have questioned his value. He also didn't outscore Hudler's 57 points by much in his first full season here, despite being a bona fide top 6 guy. He was also a floater, and that was well documented. Hudler may be small and not a great skater, but he doesn't float.

Robert Lang was also unwanted at Hudler's age, and found himself on the minors and on waivers. He had work ethic issues beyond his time with the Wings.


Last edited by detredWINgs: 07-06-2009 at 12:24 PM.
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07-06-2009, 12:10 PM
  #120
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With everything Hudler brings to the table, I think 2.5 million per year would be Hudler getting exactly what he is worth. However, as we all know with Detroit, we don't often give players exactly what they are worth and want a player to stay at a discount. I say detroit probably wants him to sign a 1.8-2.0 million cap hit deal. I think best of both worlds is them agreeing to a 3 yr/7 million dollar deal for a 2.33 cap hit or a 4 yr / 9 million dollar deal for a 2.25 cap hit.

I know its been argued the whole season, but this playoffs Filppula really showed me he is more valuable to this team long run versus Hudler. I fully expect him to be our top minute PKer if not next season, the year after. He got 3 million based on the fact that they knew he would be bringing them the detroit 2 way game they are lookin for in a player, and the fact that they are hoping he can take the next step in offense, and with a full year on the top 6 this coming season hopefully, I am confident he will hit at least 55 pts. Whereas with Hudler, we know he is not going to be a top end 2 way player ever with this team, and his offense likely is not going to improve much further (especially playing on the top 6 against better defenders, I think his ceiling really is 60pts at best), thus I don't think we should be paying him as much or more than Fil, especially with how close we are to the cap. If hudler wants anything more than 2.5, as much as I have enjoyed watching him play as a wing, I hope holland lets him walk

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07-06-2009, 12:23 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Jussha View Post
With everything Hudler brings to the table, I think 2.5 million per year would be Hudler getting exactly what he is worth. However, as we all know with Detroit, we don't often give players exactly what they are worth and want a player to stay at a discount. I say detroit probably wants him to sign a 1.8-2.0 million cap hit deal. I think best of both worlds is them agreeing to a 3 yr/7 million dollar deal for a 2.33 cap hit or a 4 yr / 9 million dollar deal for a 2.25 cap hit.

I know its been argued the whole season, but this playoffs Filppula really showed me he is more valuable to this team long run versus Hudler. I fully expect him to be our top minute PKer if not next season, the year after. He got 3 million based on the fact that they knew he would be bringing them the detroit 2 way game they are lookin for in a player, and the fact that they are hoping he can take the next step in offense, and with a full year on the top 6 this coming season hopefully, I am confident he will hit at least 55 pts. Whereas with Hudler, we know he is not going to be a top end 2 way player ever with this team, and his offense likely is not going to improve much further (especially playing on the top 6 against better defenders, I think his ceiling really is 60pts at best), thus I don't think we should be paying him as much or more than Fil, especially with how close we are to the cap. If hudler wants anything more than 2.5, as much as I have enjoyed watching him play as a wing, I hope holland lets him walk
2.5M is Hudler's value to the Red Wings, and it would be a discount. Hes obviously going to warrant more than 2.5M in arbitration, which is designed to establish a players market value. 3M is easily his market value, and a 17% discount is nothing to balk at.

If 2.8 was Cleary's "discount" to stay with the Wings after a 20-20 season, then 2.5M is a healthy depreciation. Its not like we're going to see Hudler locked up for 10-12 years here, so a depreciated cap hit via long-standing deal is out of the question.

I agree though. It'd be nice to see him take 2.25-2.33, and should be within the realm of possibility on a 1-3 year deal.

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07-06-2009, 12:29 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Jussha View Post
With everything Hudler brings to the table, I think 2.5 million per year would be Hudler getting exactly what he is worth. However, as we all know with Detroit, we don't often give players exactly what they are worth and want a player to stay at a discount. I say detroit probably wants him to sign a 1.8-2.0 million cap hit deal. I think best of both worlds is them agreeing to a 3 yr/7 million dollar deal for a 2.33 cap hit or a 4 yr / 9 million dollar deal for a 2.25 cap hit.

I know its been argued the whole season, but this playoffs Filppula really showed me he is more valuable to this team long run versus Hudler. I fully expect him to be our top minute PKer if not next season, the year after. He got 3 million based on the fact that they knew he would be bringing them the detroit 2 way game they are lookin for in a player, and the fact that they are hoping he can take the next step in offense, and with a full year on the top 6 this coming season hopefully, I am confident he will hit at least 55 pts. Whereas with Hudler, we know he is not going to be a top end 2 way player ever with this team, and his offense likely is not going to improve much further (especially playing on the top 6 against better defenders, I think his ceiling really is 60pts at best), thus I don't think we should be paying him as much or more than Fil, especially with how close we are to the cap. If hudler wants anything more than 2.5, as much as I have enjoyed watching him play as a wing, I hope holland lets him walk
Look, you can't have a team full of top-end, two-way players, especially with this little thing called the "Salary Cap." This notion that everyone on the the team has to be Selke candidates is ridiculous, and the people who hold on to this notion are going to be sorely disappointed in the long run.

Look at our talent now, and look at our salary cap trouble -- see any correlation? We've got two current perennial Selke candidates, a current two-in-a-row WINNER, an ex-Selke winner, and potentially a couple future Selke candidates in Filppula and Helm (?). You do realize you are allowed to have more offensive-minded people on a hockey team, right? I mean, really. You put Hudler with Filppula (with whom he's proven there's chemistry) and Franzen (who is no defensive slouch at all), and that's 2/3 of a SECOND forward line that can backcheck better than most team's first lines can.

Hudler is NOT a defensive liability. He doesn't float. He gets his nose dirty, and just because he doesn't always come out on top doesn't mean he isn't an effective player (it doesn't help when you're the smallest guy on the team, and one of the smaller in the league). He scored more at ES this year than on the PP, and he's a damned effective PP player... wait, what? You mean if he's that good on the powerplay, and he scored more at even strength... no, that can't be right, can it?


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07-06-2009, 12:44 PM
  #123
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Look, you can't have a team full of top-end, two-way players, especially with this little thing called the "Salary Cap." This notion that everyone on the the team has to be Selke candidates is ridiculous, and the people who hold on to this notion are going to be sorely disappointed in the long run.

Look at our talent now, and look at our salary cap trouble -- see any correlation? We've got two current perennial Selke candidates, a current two-in-a-row WINNER, an ex-Selke winner, and potentially a couple future Selke candidates in Filppula and Helm (?). You do realize you are allowed to have more offensive-minded people on a hockey team, right? I mean, really. You put Hudler with Filppula (with whom he's proven there's chemistry) and Franzen (who is no defensive slouch at all), and that's 2/3 of a SECOND forward line that can backcheck better than most team's first lines can.

Hudler is NOT a defensive liability. He doesn't float. He gets his nose dirty, and just because he doesn't always come out on top doesn't mean he isn't an effective player (it doesn't help when you're the smallest guy on the team, and one of the smaller in the league). He scored more at ES this year than on the PP, and he's a damned effective PP player... wait, what? You mean if he's that good on the powerplay, and he scored more at even strength... no, that can't be right, can it?

when did i say our team had to all be all stars at two way hockey. I just said based on what he brings to the table he shouldn't make more than filppula and at anything more than 2.5 a year i'd rather him walk. the type of game that he brings is also the type of game that we can replace. You think Hudler is the only guy who can fit into the role detroit plays him at. There are other players available if we put them in our system that will be pretty much as effective as hudler for 2.5 million or less. If hudler wants 2.5 million or less, of course I want him as a red wing, but if he wants more, I want to look elsewhere. You really want to pay the guy 3 million when you might be able to find someone else who will bring us the same production and might even fit better into our top 6 than hudler? Not everyone can be a red wing for life, eventually we have to lose and get rid of some players, like hossa and sammy. If Hudler wants to price himself out of our team's budget, then unfortunately he has to go too. Of course I would rather get rid of some other players, but I thnk most of us have already accepted the fact that players like maltby and draper aren't going to get traded.

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07-06-2009, 12:49 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Jussha View Post
when did i say our team had to all be all stars at two way hockey. I just said based on what he brings to the table he shouldn't make more than filppula and at anything more than 2.5 a year i'd rather him walk. the type of game that he brings is also the type of game that we can replace. You think Hudler is the only guy who can fit into the role detroit plays him at. There are other players available if we put them in our system that will be pretty much as effective as hudler for 2.5 million or less. If hudler wants 2.5 million or less, of course I want him as a red wing, but if he wants more, I want to look elsewhere. You really want to pay the guy 3 million when you might be able to find someone else who will bring us the same production and might even fit better into our top 6 than hudler? Not everyone can be a red wing for life, eventually we have to lose and get rid of some players, like hossa and sammy. If Hudler wants to price himself out of our team's budget, then unfortunately he has to go too. Of course I would rather get rid of some other players, but I thnk most of us have already accepted the fact that players like maltby and draper aren't going to get traded.
Just out of curiosity, what players do you have in mind that are going to be as effective as Hudler for less money? I personally can't think of any, but I'm willing to concede that there might be some. Who do you have in mind?

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07-06-2009, 01:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yooper wings fan View Post
* Ville Leino $1,500,000
Leino only has a .8 hit. (I am pretty sure I posted this earlier and it has been deleted? would be helpful if I could find out why )

And Hudler is a great deal at 2.5 and 3.0 is a decent deal. I can see Hudler getting stronger this offseason which would help his 2-way play, but right now he is only mediocre defensively and he cherry-picks alot. I don't recall seeing him in the defensive zone much at all for that matter but I their are a few times that I remember him in the d-zone and I was shocked everytime so I would only watch him and he would make a perfect play on defense and usually cause a turnover. I am sure he is going to get better defensively, I can really see him following the Datsyuk mold of being an purely offensive cherry picker his first few seasons until he puts on some muscles and learn to play defense. I can see Hudler being an elite player in a 3+ years.

And their are plenty of players who are not strong defensively on the Red Wings, but Babcock tries to limit them to 1 per line. So Holmstrom, Hudler, Leino are most likey going to be the big liabilities next season. So if we limit each line to just 1 of them then we should be fine.

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