There is absolutely no way lupul scores more goals and has only ten points less than Ryan next year. I'll channel a little eric nuts to get that out there.
Meh, I'm not good at making predictions. I don't do fantasy or anything like that.
I do think I'd prefer Ryan on the 2nd line so he can drive that line, and let Lupul leech off the twins on the first line. It may suck for Ryan's individual numbers, but I think it'd help the team overall to have 2 contributing lines.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Static
There is absolutely no way lupul scores more goals and has only ten points less than Ryan next year. I'll channel a little eric nuts to get that out there.
The reason I made it like that is that I think that Lupul gets on the first line. Even though he's still clearly inferior to Ryan, who will be on the 2nd line. So then Getzlaf will feed Lupul for lots of goals, but Ryan will play better and outscore Lupul. I also think Ryan's goal totals were a bit of an aberration.
Last edited by snarktacular: 07-14-2009 at 01:50 PM.
What about his goal total feels like an abberation? To me, it feels like just the opposite. If he had played with the top offensive players all year and scored a bunch of tap-in goals, then yes, I could see where you were coming from; however, he routinely created his own offense no matter who he played with, something he did regularly enough to suggest it wasn't a fluke.
Last edited by Static: 07-14-2009 at 03:18 PM.
Reason: Insufficient use of commas; **** commas
What about his goal total feels like an abberation? To me, it feels like just the opposite. If he had played with the top offensive players all year and scored a bunch of tap-in goals, then yes. I could see where you were coming from; however, he routinely created his own offense no matter who he played with, something he did regularly enough to suggest it wasn't a fluke.
At one point it was whichever line Bobby Ryan was on, would carry the offense.
What about his goal total feels like an abberation? To me, it feels like just the opposite. If he had played with the top offensive players all year and scored a bunch of tap-in goals, then yes, I could see where you were coming from; however, he routinely created his own offense no matter who he played with, something he did regularly enough to suggest it wasn't a fluke.
Ryan did often create his own offense, but a few things go into my goal prediction.
1) He was more of a playmaker in junior than a goal scorer. He was also described as such, both by others and by himself. So his 31 goals to 26 assists is inconsistent with his history.
2) He's got a good wrist shot, but I feel like he's got a relatively poor one-timer. At least for a 30 goal scorer. Compare that with his magic hands in terms of stickhandling and passing, the skills seem to point the other way.
3) Just an impression, but I feel like he converted on an unusually large percentage of his shots. It just seemed like he got unusually lucky in scoring all those goals. Compare that to Perry, who would get golden chance after golden chance and just have awful luck. The shooting % bears that out. Ryan has a 17.8% (quite high), Perry has 11.3. Selanne, a known sniper, has 14.5.
4) Anaheim rookie years tend to be misleading in terms of a player's goal totals. Lupul (well his sophomore year), Penner, Kunitz, even Getzlaf (although he's been consistently 24/25 goals) all had career years goal-wise their first full seasons.
5) Scouting and coaching will probably tighten the ice he gets some. He had some goals by beating people with his stickhandling, or even his skating. I expect those to go down a little as they worry more about covering him. Does he have the shot and one-timer to score in other ways and make up for that?
6) If he's on the 2nd line, like I was predicting, I think he'll be feeding Selanne for the goals. Although Koivu may be feeding him too. But unless he probably won't have Getzlaf passing to him (even though Getzlaf only did that fora fraction of last season).
7) I'm just pulling stuff out of my ass
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spankatola Jamnuts
I sense a graph approaching.
I was thinking more of a pie chart, or perhaps a plot of his goals vs shots on a little mini NHL rink.
Getzlaf 36 + 56 = 92 (I have hope he's going to be asked to use his canon of a shot more and will do so.)
Perry 32 + 47 = 79
Ryan 28 + 48 = 76 (splitting time with Lupul on 1st line)
Selanne 33 + 32 = 65
Koivu 22 + 46 = 68
Lupul 27 + 24 = 51
Getzlaf 36 + 56 = 92 (I have hope he's going to be asked to use his canon of a shot more and will do so.)
Perry 32 + 47 = 79
Ryan 28 + 48 = 76 (splitting time with Lupul on 1st line)
Selanne 33 + 32 = 65
Koivu 22 + 46 = 68
Lupul 27 + 24 = 51
I agree with most of these except for Wiz. Niedermayer, will have the most goals by our D this year. He jumps into the play much more than Wiz, and although he will likely be spending a LOT of time with Scott this season, the way Scott plays will provide him more opportunities to put the puck in the net (IE: jumping in on the rush and PP).
I agree with most of these except for Wiz. Niedermayer, will have the most goals by our D this year. He jumps into the play much more than Wiz, and although he will likely be spending a LOT of time with Scott this season, the way Scott plays will provide him more opportunities to put the puck in the net (IE: jumping in on the rush and PP).
I intended to go a little out of line with my projection for Wiz in order to mix it up a little... But I think it's possible. He does have a good shot and I could see him using it more often than Scott on the powerplay. Scotty is obviously a much safer bet as you can expect a lot more danger from him especially playing five on five, but I thought I'd give this a shot.
I think that that is maybe a conservative guess...
The thing which I find most odd are Koivu estimated point totals. He's had health problems all career and has only sniffed 70+ points twice, the most recent on the top PP of the league. 57 seems pausible when considering he won't be playing on the first line anymore, could possibly have another few games lost due to injury, and is certainly not the same Koivu of two years ago.
I think that that is maybe a conservative guess...
This could definitely be that case next season.
Ryan could hit a sophmore slump or just simply be moved around too many lines to improve upon last seasons pace.
Getzlaf wont be counted on as our only source of puck distribution with Koivu here, so he may take over more PK responsibilites and his points will go down.
Perry could score 50 goals and I wouldn't be surprised, or he could blow 90% of his chances and end up at 15 goals, I wouldn't be too surprised either way.
Who knows how well Koivu will play.
Selanne's age may finally catch up with him, he scored 27 in 65 last season, but this might be the year he really drops off.
Your Lupul prediction seems oddly generous considering your conservative approach with the others.
I sure hope this our top two lines don't combine for only 141 goals though, with our defense, we'd probably be in for a long season.
Edit: Btw, just for reference, or top six forwards last season (Perry, Ryan, Selanne, Getzlaf, Kunitz, Morrison) scored a combined 141 goals...I guess we should add Ebbett too, so that's 149 goals.
Last edited by Vinegar Strokes: 07-15-2009 at 09:26 PM.
At one point it was whichever line Bobby Ryan was on, would carry the offense.
And if you remember, when he played on the 4th with parros and Carter, he even got some production out of parros. I saw 2 games where those two had SEVERAL 2 on 1s. Ryan is clearly an offensive force and I think showing how he's spending this off-season he will have a bigger year! Well I hope at least
Ryan could hit a sophmore slump or just simply be moved around too many lines to improve upon last seasons pace.
Getzlaf wont be counted on as our only source of puck distribution with Koivu here, so he may take over more PK responsibilites and his points will go down.
Perry could score 50 goals and I wouldn't be surprised, or he could blow 90% of his chances and end up at 15 goals, I wouldn't be too surprised either way.
Who knows how well Koivu will play.
Selanne's age may finally catch up with him, he scored 27 in 65 last season, but this might be the year he really drops off.
Your Lupul prediction seems oddly generous considering your conservative approach with the others.
I sure hope this our top two lines don't combine for only 141 goals though, with our defense, we'd probably be in for a long season.
Edit: Btw, just for reference, or top six forwards last season (Perry, Ryan, Selanne, Getzlaf, Kunitz, Morrison) scored a combined 141 goals...I guess we should add Ebbett too, so that's 149 goals.
See, in my mind, I see Lupul having a big year if he is with Koivu and Selanne. Selanne had a great year last year in limited games, but sure, his production will probably tail off... However, over the last few years, I have been super impressed with Selanne's playmaking abilities and some awesome passes, more than his goal scoring at times. I think with Koivu and Selanne feeding Lupul, the kid could really put up some good numbers.
I think Selanne's numbers are going to drop some just because he won't be the only talented player on his line anymore, and Lupul isn't going to be looking to pass like Getz at every opportunity.
See, in my mind, I see Lupul having a big year if he is with Koivu and Selanne. Selanne had a great year last year in limited games, but sure, his production will probably tail off... However, over the last few years, I have been super impressed with Selanne's playmaking abilities and some awesome passes, more than his goal scoring at times. I think with Koivu and Selanne feeding Lupul, the kid could really put up some good numbers.
I think Selanne's numbers are going to drop some just because he won't be the only talented player on his line anymore, and Lupul isn't going to be looking to pass like Getz at every opportunity.
If our goal totals are what you posted, I sure hope Giggy or Hiller have a Vezina winning campaign, because that will be our only hope.
Thats 238 goals, the entire team scored 238 goals last season, I dont think your top six and three D-men are gonna put up numbers quite that big. It should be an exciting season for Ducks fans though as I do believe the overall goals scored will be higher than last season.
For comparisons sake, last season the players listed above combined for 195 goals.
But I think it's possible. He does have a good shot and I could see him using it more often than Scott on the powerplay. Scotty is obviously a much safer bet as you can expect a lot more danger from him especially playing five on five, but I thought I'd give this a shot. 
