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Our lottery fate from the number 6?

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Old
03-31-2004, 04:10 PM
  #1
xander
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Our lottery fate from the number 6?

Most of the speculation about the lottery on this board has focused on our chances of getting first overall from the 5th spot. Since it now seems more likly that we're gonna land 6th, does anyone know the possibilities from that position? I know we can't move up to number one, but i do think someone said we could move up to number 2. So does anyone know the odds of us moving up to the 2,3,4 or 5 spots, as well as those of us moving down?


p.s. on a more random note, i don't know what this smile: is suposed to meen, but it's awesome and i wanted to use it somewhere.

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03-31-2004, 04:18 PM
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Pooh
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http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story.asp?ID=78433

edit: 6.2%

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Old
03-31-2004, 04:18 PM
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NYR469
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you can't move up to 3, 4, or 5...if you move up then you move up 4 spots, and can only drop 1...

so if we finish 6th from the bottom there are only 3 possible spots for us to pick #2, #6 or #7

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Old
03-31-2004, 04:21 PM
  #4
vbox81
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Odds of
Winning Drafting 1st Place

25.0% 48.2% 30th place
18.8% 18.8% 29th place
14.2% 14.2% 28th place
10.7% 10.7% 27th place
8.1% 8.1% 26th place
6.2% 0% 25th place
4.7% 0% 24th place
3.6% 0% 23rd place
2.7% 0% 22nd place
2.1% 0% 21st place
1.5% 0% 20th place
1.1% 0% 19th place
0.8% 0% 18th place
0.5% 0% 17th place

Examples: The 30th-place finisher has a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery. The 26th-place finisher has an 8.1 percent chance of winning the lottery and advancing four positions in the draft pick sequence.

The middle column shows the chances of actually winning the first pick in the entry draft. Because a team may advance a maximum of four positions, only the worst five finishers may win the first overall pick.

Basically, those teams have a chance of advancing up to 4 places (only 1-4 cannot advance 4 places). So, if the Rangers were to win the lottery, which happens 6.2% of the time, they would draft 2nd and everyone else would move down 1 spot. The odds for everyone other than top 5 show the odds of moving up 4 places.

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Old
03-31-2004, 04:28 PM
  #5
xander
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vbox81
Odds of
Winning Drafting 1st Place

25.0% 48.2% 30th place
18.8% 18.8% 29th place
14.2% 14.2% 28th place
10.7% 10.7% 27th place
8.1% 8.1% 26th place
6.2% 0% 25th place
4.7% 0% 24th place
3.6% 0% 23rd place
2.7% 0% 22nd place
2.1% 0% 21st place
1.5% 0% 20th place
1.1% 0% 19th place
0.8% 0% 18th place
0.5% 0% 17th place

Examples: The 30th-place finisher has a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery. The 26th-place finisher has an 8.1 percent chance of winning the lottery and advancing four positions in the draft pick sequence.

The middle column shows the chances of actually winning the first pick in the entry draft. Because a team may advance a maximum of four positions, only the worst five finishers may win the first overall pick.

Basically, those teams have a chance of advancing up to 4 places (only 1-4 cannot advance 4 places). So, if the Rangers were to win the lottery, which happens 6.2% of the time, they would draft 2nd and everyone else would move down 1 spot. The odds for everyone other than top 5 show the odds of moving up 4 places.
alright, gotcha, I was kind of under the impression that they would do a draw for the top 3 or 4 picks induvidually based on a differant set of odds for each pick. I'm not sure why i thought of this as it seems needlessly complicated, but i guess thats the way my mind works sometimes.

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Old
03-31-2004, 04:35 PM
  #6
Frozen North
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xander

p.s. on a more random note, i don't know what this smile: is suposed to meen, but it's awesome and i wanted to use it somewhere.

http://www.people.cornell.edu/pages/slp29/pbj.html

It's Peanut Butter Jelly Time!! :lol

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Old
03-31-2004, 04:37 PM
  #7
xander
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JetRanger
http://www.people.cornell.edu/pages/slp29/pbj.html

It's Peanut Butter Jelly Time!! :lol
Awesome, that makes it even better!

!!!!

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