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Washington Capitals Prospect Poll #4

View Poll Results: Who is Washington's number 4 ranked prospect?
Francois Bouchard 2 2.60%
Chris Bourque 17 22.08%
Joe Finley 0 0%
Anton Gustafsson 17 22.08%
Braden Holtby 2 2.60%
Marcus Johansson 7 9.09%
Dmitry Kugryshev 4 5.19%
Dmitry Orlov 15 19.48%
Oskar Osala 11 14.29%
Mathieu Perreault 2 2.60%
Voters: 77. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-19-2009, 11:51 PM
  #1
bottleCAPS
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Washington Capitals Prospect Poll #4

Washington Capitals Top 20 Prospects

1. Simeon Varlamov (G) - Drafted 1st Round, 23rd Overall in 2006 Draft
2. John Carlson (D) - Drafted 1st Round, 27th Overall in 2008 Draft
3. Michael Neuvirth (G) - Drafted 2nd Round, 34th Overall in 2006 Draft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added Mathieu Perreault (C)

Graduates

Karl Alzner (D) (voted no. 1 prospect last year) 30GP - 1G - 4A - 5PTS - 2PIM

Eric Fehr (RW) (voted no. 3 prospect last year) 61GP - 12G - 13A - 25PTS - 22PIM

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Old
07-20-2009, 04:21 AM
  #2
Kazer
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I would vote for Anton or Marcus if I could, but is there any reason in particular I haven't been able to vote in any of the prospect polls?

I would say add Eakin.

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Old
07-20-2009, 06:14 AM
  #3
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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This is where the ranking gets muddled for me. Johansson, Gustafsson, and Orlov are all right there. I guess I'll give Marcus the benefit of the doubt, considering he was taken before Orlov, and has had the most professional success of the 3, playing a full season for the SEL champions.

Add Eakin.

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Old
07-20-2009, 06:16 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazer View Post
I would vote for Anton or Marcus if I could, but is there any reason in particular I haven't been able to vote in any of the prospect polls?

I would say add Eakin.
My guess would be that there's a post count minimum for voting, though I'm not aware of such a requirement, nor could I find one browsing the site FAQ.

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Old
07-20-2009, 07:25 AM
  #5
brs03
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This is where it gets really muddled.

Went with Orlov. Both he and Jo have played against men already, which gives them the edge over Kooger and partly AnGus (not a top tier league). All of those 4 probably have the allure of more upside left than Osala and Perreault simply because we've seen less of them so far, although those two are still probably our top F prospects in terms of callup status. Very tough call.

Oh well. Orlov held his own with Carlson this week, even if the level of competition left a great deal to be desired, so I went with him. I have a feeling every voter here, no matter who they vote for, is going to want to reconsider by the time training camp comes around.

Add Eakin, or maybe Broda.

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07-20-2009, 07:44 AM
  #6
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bourque

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Old
07-20-2009, 07:49 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
This is where it gets really muddled.

Went with Orlov. Both he and Jo have played against men already, which gives them the edge over Kooger and partly AnGus (not a top tier league). All of those 4 probably have the allure of more upside left than Osala and Perreault simply because we've seen less of them so far, although those two are still probably our top F prospects in terms of callup status. Very tough call.

Oh well. Orlov held his own with Carlson this week, even if the level of competition left a great deal to be desired, so I went with him. I have a feeling every voter here, no matter who they vote for, is going to want to reconsider by the time training camp comes around.

Add Eakin, or maybe Broda.
this.

i debated voting last night, only to go around and around and finally gave up.

going with Marcus Johansson, but really at this point its my inclination for forwards rather than any real insight

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07-20-2009, 07:54 AM
  #8
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bourque
Well crap. I would have voted Bourque if I had noticed him in the list. (I keep forgetting he's still a prospect even after being with the Bears for 3 years now).

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Old
07-20-2009, 08:33 AM
  #9
TheFountainhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
This is where it gets really muddled.

Went with Orlov. Both he and Jo have played against men already, which gives them the edge over Kooger and partly AnGus (not a top tier league). All of those 4 probably have the allure of more upside left than Osala and Perreault simply because we've seen less of them so far, although those two are still probably our top F prospects in terms of callup status. Very tough call.

Oh well. Orlov held his own with Carlson this week, even if the level of competition left a great deal to be desired, so I went with him. I have a feeling every voter here, no matter who they vote for, is going to want to reconsider by the time training camp comes around.

Add Eakin, or maybe Broda.

I feel exactly the same way.

Orlov got my vote, add Eakin.

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07-20-2009, 08:36 AM
  #10
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I went with Orlov. In sight and in mind. He looked really strong and everything you didnt hear about him ratings wise seems to be because he's russian. Add Broda.

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07-20-2009, 09:08 AM
  #11
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Bourque.

There is the trend every year to jump on the new kids and the sense of hope they bring and to forget the ones who have been cooking in the system for a couple years.

What criteria do you follow? Highest possible upside at each prospect's peak...somewhere in the unforeseen future? Or Most ready to jump up and contribute at a meaningfull level to the big club (and I don't mean a 2-3 game injury call up on the 4th line with 4 minutes of ice time per game)?

People are right. It gets muddled about now.

Add Godfrey or Della Rovere.

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07-20-2009, 09:30 AM
  #12
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Johansson, though for me there are four or five guys that are pretty neck-and-neck (from reading only, in my case--if I'd seen much of them, I'd probably be more opinionated). After the top three, it gets a bit muddy in my mind. I'm sure as the season goes on, the new prospects especially will start to sift out a bit.

Add Della Rovere.

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07-20-2009, 09:33 AM
  #13
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Holtby. Add SDR.

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Old
07-20-2009, 09:40 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XDC-RES View Post
Bourque.

There is the trend every year to jump on the new kids and the sense of hope they bring and to forget the ones who have been cooking in the system for a couple years.

What criteria do you follow? Highest possible upside at each prospect's peak...somewhere in the unforeseen future? Or Most ready to jump up and contribute at a meaningfull level to the big club (and I don't mean a 2-3 game injury call up on the 4th line with 4 minutes of ice time per game)?

People are right. It gets muddled about now.

Add Godfrey or Della Rovere.
That's the criteria I used (while also keeping in mind the chances of that prospect maximizing his potential.) From everything Ive read, and the little Ive seen of him, Orlov's ceiling seems to be that of a top four defenseman. The only thing he lacks is optimal size (which can be offset by great skating and positioning.) My projection for Bourque is that of a really good third liner, or serviceable second liner. A top four defenseman is more valuable than a third liner, no matter how effective, so ipso facto, Orlov is the better prospect in my book.


Last edited by TheFountainhead: 07-20-2009 at 10:10 AM.
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Old
07-20-2009, 10:04 AM
  #15
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I voted Orloz because I can.

Quite the tossup at this point. I think there is a gaggle of prospects who could get strong consideration here.

On a side note, isn't it grand with Ovechkin, Semin, and Backstrom in the fold that many of our best prospects are D and G, and I don't mean doom and gloom. I include Alzner in that group for all intents and purposes.

In short, I like the team and I like the pipeline.

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07-20-2009, 10:06 AM
  #16
RandyHolt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XDC-RES View Post
Bourque.

There is the trend every year to jump on the new kids and the sense of hope they bring and to forget the ones who have been cooking in the system for a couple years.

What criteria do you follow?...
Gut instincts. And Bourque love is fine. But cooking in the system and unable to crack the roster are red flags to me. I think we know more about Bourque than we do about Orlov. Sure its easy to bust us out for liking the noobs but it doesnt mean we are wrong. Who's closer or who is more of an impact player later, D vs forward; too much to differentiate. Follow your gut.

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07-20-2009, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Gut instincts. And Bourque love is fine. But cooking in the system and unable to crack the roster are red flags to me. I think we know more about Bourque than we do about Orlov. Sure its easy to bust us out for liking the noobs but it doesnt mean we are wrong. Who's closer or who is more of an impact player later, D vs forward; too much to differentiate. Follow your gut.
Agreed. And I wasn't trying to "bust" anyone out. I too find it very easy to liking the noobs. I'm especially psyched about Orlov. And there is a fine line between developing in the system and being unable to crack the line-up. Its different for every player. At what point do you give up on them? Its tough.

For me, if Bourque doesn't make the team at some point this year and stick for an extended length it will have crossed that line, IMO.

Go with your gut is all anyone can do.

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07-20-2009, 10:42 AM
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Voted for Osala. Add Eakin

In absense of data on the swedish centers and only a slight observation on a 17yr old 2nd round pick, I had to go for the more established kid with a good upside.

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07-20-2009, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexthegr8 View Post
That's the criteria I used (while also keeping in mind the chances of that prospect maximizing his potential.) From everything Ive read, and the little Ive seen of him, Orlov's ceiling seems to be that of a top four defenseman. The only thing he lacks is optimal size (which can be offset by great skating and positioning.) My projection for Bourque is that of a really good third liner, or serviceable second liner. A top four defenseman is more valuable than a third liner, no matter how effective, so ipso facto, Orlov is the better prospect in my book.
Good argument and it makes sense. Its generally what I try to adhere to as well. But when I think a high end draftee is 2-3 years away and a serviceable 2nd liner is ready to join the club....it becomes a toss up. I agree with your assessment of both players btw. Orlov will probably be my next vote.

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07-20-2009, 01:46 PM
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Johansson, add Eakin. I'm full of shiny new toy syndrome ATM.

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07-20-2009, 02:15 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by XDC-RES View Post
Good argument and it makes sense. Its generally what I try to adhere to as well. But when I think a high end draftee is 2-3 years away and a serviceable 2nd liner is ready to join the club....it becomes a toss up. I agree with your assessment of both players btw. Orlov will probably be my next vote.
I'm similar to alexthegr8, sort of. I rank each prospect based on the median line between ceiling and floor. Of course it's not the true floor, because everyone who is still a prospect could potentially flame out and bust, so technically they all have the same floor. I use more of a "reasonable expectations" floor.

To wit: Comparing Johansson or Orlov to Bourque or Osala is tough because they are very different prospects. I put MJ and Orlov higher, because while they arguably have lower floors than Bourque or Osala, they played in men's leagues and have a degree of accomplishment already, so their floors are not too low, and their ceilings are clearly higher. Bourque and Osala are closer to playing in the NHL, meaning their floors are pretty good, but those two probably top out as 3rd liners, maybe fringe 2nd liners if everything goes perfectly. MJ's and Orlov's "medians" are higher than Bourque and Osala. (Note that median is not the same as average- median better reflects a typical outcome and is less swayed by an extreme endpoint. Of course this is all purely conceptual because we're not talking about real numbers, just impressions. Still, a "typical" outcome for Bourque and Osala is grinding/checking winger, while a for MJ a "typical" outcome would be 2-way center with skill and for Orlov it would be top-4 D.)

I guess it's sort of like the HF system of rating a player's peak potential and then downgrading it based on likelihood of reaching it, but HF doesn't ever seem to actually rank players based on those ratings.

Does any of this make any sense to you guys?


(EDIT: Add SDR.)

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Old
07-20-2009, 02:17 PM
  #22
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You have to go with bork here. He played really well in camp last year. Played pretty well as a callup, especially in the games with steckel and fehr. And he's also had 3 years in hershey.

After reading the thread I will amend this to say that I agree with either way of ranking. For me I was thinking of who would be making the biggest impact on the NHL squad the soonest. I think bork is the guy after varly, carlson and neuvy. That contribution is probably as a third line energy guy who scores 10-15 goals, but I don't think we'll be seeing orlov play for the caps for another 2-3 years at the minimum because of his age (17!) and the guys "ahead" of him. He's probably a long way from playing in the NHL. It's also hard to rank the swedish centers.


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07-20-2009, 02:28 PM
  #23
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i went with Orlov.

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Old
07-20-2009, 03:01 PM
  #24
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lol i know every (well) except orlov and hes winning the poll

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07-20-2009, 03:21 PM
  #25
RandyHolt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XDC-RES View Post
Agreed. And I wasn't trying to "bust" anyone out. I too find it very easy to liking the noobs. I'm especially psyched about Orlov. And there is a fine line between developing in the system and being unable to crack the line-up. Its different for every player. At what point do you give up on them? Its tough.

For me, if Bourque doesn't make the team at some point this year and stick for an extended length it will have crossed that line, IMO.

Go with your gut is all anyone can do.
yeah sorry buddy, "bust" was used for a lack of a better word. and maybe is a bit strong. But its real tough watching Orlov in July but then voting for others that are amazingly, kind of "old" news. 4 years in Hershey will do that. I just fear he has missed his chance and dropped down the ladder a bit. Picking up Knuble and resigning Fehr says something that he didnt want to hear.

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