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Old
07-27-2009, 08:41 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus View Post
Bailey is no little boy now. He looked pretty jacked at prospect camp. He's definately over 6' and filled out a lot. His problem was never fear of the rough and tumble, it was his underdeveloped frame. Schenn is a stay at home defenseman who will put up good points. I'd rather have a cerebral playmaker that Bailey showed he could be last year in flashes.

On the blueline we are small, but our top guy de Haan should get bigger, I think he'll be 6'1 or so when he's up full time. Remember, he's only 17-18 not like he will remain 5'11-6'.

Plus, today's game is not about size. Its so difficult for the stay at home guys to defend the net now without getting called, they are a dying breed. As a result the need for a power forward is no longer that high (though still very nice to have). Yeah, you can still win with size (look at the Ducks), but its not necessary (look at the past two Stanley Cup champs, and before the Ducks you had the Hurricanes). I think its opened the game up for different approaches to building a team.
Yesterday, today, and tomorrow will be about size. Size ALWAYS matters in hockey, no matter how fast you are or how smart your centers are.

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07-27-2009, 08:53 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus View Post
Schenn had one of the hardest shots in his draft class (along with Jyri Niemi) and while he won't put up big numbers should put up 25-30ish points or so. He's not one dimensional.

Regardless, I still like the Bailey pick and I think he's going to bust out a bit this year with his added bulk.
I did not know about Schenn's shot, hence why I said I wasn't positive.

I like the Bailey pick too. I don't think this will be that break you year you are talking about, but I think it will be a big step up. I think we will see a nice steady progression with him.

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Yesterday, today, and tomorrow will be about size. Size ALWAYS matters in hockey, no matter how fast you are or how smart your centers are.
But these days in age it isn't all about size. Size matters, but with the new rules and all, size alone doesn't matter as much. Big defenseman like Gill or Hatcher at the end of his career can be more liabilities than anything. These days size with mobility is a huge must IMO.


Last edited by Hunter07: 07-27-2009 at 08:58 PM.
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07-27-2009, 08:59 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Yesterday, today, and tomorrow will be about size. Size ALWAYS matters in hockey, no matter how fast you are or how smart your centers are.
I disagree, Detroit and the Penguins were not huge teams and they seem to be doing just fine. In the post lockout era most of the top teams are built around team speed, not hulking size save the Ducks, Flyers, Flames, and now Leafs. I see more teams like Pitts, Wings, Canes, Hawks (though they do have size on the blue line, upfront most of their size is in role players), Sabres (pre 2007 purge), and Capitals having sucess without being built around size and toughness. With the new rules theres just alot more options in building a team. In no way I am saying ice a team of under 6' players but at the same time I don't think size is the determining factor that separates contenders from pretenders. Size can be added with role players if needed which are usually not that difficult to acquire or develop.

Plus, Bailey is not small, he's 6'1"-6'2" or so. Same with Okposo and Tavares. To me thats our core, the rest is interchangable. Could we use size? Yes, but I think team speed is much more important. Plus we have some big guys in Joensuu who could make the team and further on the horizon Martin, Harmonic and Niemi.

And Hunter07, wasn't trying to make you look ignorant if thats how you took my post. Just pointing out that he does have offensive assets. And by bust out, I mean put up maybe 40ish points or so and look the part of a second liner. Not a major breakout.


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07-27-2009, 09:08 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus View Post
I disagree, Detroit and the Penguins were not huge teams and they seem to be doing just fine.
The Pens were actually quite big on the back end. Letang was the only guy that was small-ish (depending which site you believe in regards to his height and weight). But Gonchar, Orpik, Gill, and Eaton were 6'2" or taller, Scuderi was a solid 6'0", 213 pounds.

Up front, the Pens weren't a gigantic team by any means. However, down the middle they had size (Malkin and Staal), and strength (Crosby is a strong 200 lbs). And while the majority of their wingers weren't monsters, they were physical guys. Guys like Kunitz and Cooke hit everything in sight, Kennedy and Talbot were buzzsaws on the forecheck, and Fedotenko and Guerin have some size to them and weren't afraid to use it.

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07-27-2009, 09:33 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
The Pens were actually quite big on the back end. Letang was the only guy that was small-ish (depending which site you believe in regards to his height and weight). But Gonchar, Orpik, Gill, and Eaton were 6'2" or taller, Scuderi was a solid 6'0", 213 pounds.

Up front, the Pens weren't a gigantic team by any means. However, down the middle they had size (Malkin and Staal), and strength (Crosby is a strong 200 lbs). And while the majority of their wingers weren't monsters, they were physical guys. Guys like Kunitz and Cooke hit everything in sight, Kennedy and Talbot were buzzsaws on the forecheck, and Fedotenko and Guerin have some size to them and weren't afraid to use it.
Eh, I think what he means by size is also adding physicality. Really only Orpik and Gill use their size on the blueline. I just don't see size as being a huge factor in todays NHL as it was in the past. Its needed, but its not the be all end all. Like I said, our core guys are all have pretty good size and we have support players with size (or play like they have size) like Witt, Comeau, Bergy, Hunter and Sutton. Our small guys are not core players, I just think its not a huge problem right now. Once we start poking around the playoff spot race then we can start looking a adding size. Right now I think we need to see where the skill is. Only way to find that out is play.

But I do understand your guys sentiments and I definitely do think it will need to addressed.

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07-27-2009, 09:38 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Hunter07 View Post
I did not know about Schenn's shot, hence why I said I wasn't positive.

I like the Bailey pick too. I don't think this will be that break you year you are talking about, but I think it will be a big step up. I think we will see a nice steady progression with him.



But these days in age it isn't all about size. Size matters, but with the new rules and all, size alone doesn't matter as much. Big defenseman like Gill or Hatcher at the end of his career can be more liabilities than anything. These days size with mobility is a huge must IMO.

Don't be impressed by Schenn's shot. His shot was timed fast in an all star contest. It is another thing managing to get it off in a game, or managing to get into position. I love Luke Schenn's game, but he'll top out as a 20 point man.

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07-27-2009, 09:58 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Don't be impressed by Schenn's shot. His shot was timed fast in an all star contest. It is another thing managing to get it off in a game, or managing to get into position. I love Luke Schenn's game, but he'll top out as a 20 point man.

He had 14 points this year right out of the draft, I don't think his ceiling is 20 points.

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07-27-2009, 10:28 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus View Post
He had 14 points this year right out of the draft, I don't think his ceiling is 20 points.
He'll likely top out in the 30 point range but makes a good first pass most importantly and has good puck handling skills.


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07-27-2009, 11:29 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus View Post
He had 14 points this year right out of the draft, I don't think his ceiling is 20 points.
Many defensive dmen fail to improve much in terms of offensive after their rookie year.

Consider a few comparables:

Barret Jackman. Rookie year was 19 points. Average year is about 19 points and career high is 27 points.

Robyn Regher. Rookie year was 12 points in 57 games and, again, that is about his PPG average over his career.

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07-27-2009, 11:43 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Many defensive dmen fail to improve much in terms of offensive after their rookie year.

Consider a few comparables:

Barret Jackman. Rookie year was 19 points. Average year is about 19 points and career high is 27 points.

Robyn Regher. Rookie year was 12 points in 57 games and, again, that is about his PPG average over his career.
Ya like Trent Hunter, 20 goals his first year

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus
And Hunter07, wasn't trying to make you look ignorant if thats how you took my post. Just pointing out that he does have offensive assets. And by bust out, I mean put up maybe 40ish points or so and look the part of a second liner. Not a major breakout.
Ya I wasn't being sarcastic, I really did not know. Sorry if I my comment got taken any other way.

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07-28-2009, 12:20 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Landmine Springs View Post
He's no Scotty Bowman, but I feel that the Isles being a league-wide joke isn't so likely anymore. I think we're starting to see a method to the madness.
Scotty Bowman cant do this...




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07-28-2009, 12:46 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Hipster Doofus View Post
He had 14 points this year right out of the draft, I don't think his ceiling is 20 points.
I think a better comparison to make if you want to talk about a current/recent NHLer who Schenn's numbers might be similar to, is Adam Foote.

Given some decent PP time, Foote was able to get 25 to 30 points in a given season. But usually he averaged between 15 to 20. I think Schenn will be similar.

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07-28-2009, 01:14 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
I think a better comparison to make if you want to talk about a current/recent NHLer who Schenn's numbers might be similar to, is Adam Foote.

Given some decent PP time, Foote was able to get 25 to 30 points in a given season. But usually he averaged between 15 to 20. I think Schenn will be similar.
Which is more than enough when you combine it with the other elements of Schenn's game where he's got the potential to dominate IMHO. I found it laugh out loud funny last Spring when Islander fans- many posting on this board- took the stance of "Luke Schenn? **** that!!! He's only got 'Adam Foote' type upside!!!" As if Adam Foote somehow wasn't worth a top 5 pick (when the whole ****ing thing is a crap shoot anyway) or "good enough" to don the Islander blue and orange...

Anyway... this is definitely my sore point with Snow (Bailey + picks instead of Schenn)... and I sure as hell hope he proves me wrong...

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07-28-2009, 01:23 AM
  #64
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Anyway... this is definitely my sore point with Snow (Bailey + picks instead of Schenn)... and I sure as hell hope he proves me wrong...
As much as I love Bailey, that decision could really end up biting the Islanders in the behind. In retrospect, Bailey's almost overkill when you consider the Isles also have Okposo and now Tavares as "future star forwards". On the back end, having someone like Schenn would go a long way toward solidifying things in their own zone for years to come.

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07-28-2009, 09:30 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
As much as I love Bailey, that decision could really end up biting the Islanders in the behind. In retrospect, Bailey's almost overkill when you consider the Isles also have Okposo and now Tavares as "future star forwards". On the back end, having someone like Schenn would go a long way toward solidifying things in their own zone for years to come.
I think Schenn is going to be a solid defenseman....I like the Foote comparison (which has been written many times) but I think Schenn may surprise on offense, in time.

I don't think the Bailey move was a bad move at all, I don't think you can have too much talent, character, leadership on a team, especially at center. Regardless of how many names-on-paper the Isles have down the middle, I have yet to see any impact players. At least Bailey has a chance.

Having said that, you could argue that the "bite in the behind" was taking Tavares over Hedman rather than Bailey over Schenn :-)

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07-28-2009, 12:42 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Barret Jackman. Rookie year was 19 points. Average year is about 19 points and career high is 27 points.
Darth, as I recall Barrett Jackman had a serious 5 o'clock shadow in his pre-draft photos. He's one of those guys who reached full physical maturity at 16. He's the anti-DeHaan. So, I'm not surprised that he didn't turn out to be Mr. Upside.

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07-28-2009, 12:47 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
I think a better comparison to make if you want to talk about a current/recent NHLer who Schenn's numbers might be similar to, is Adam Foote.

Given some decent PP time, Foote was able to get 25 to 30 points in a given season. But usually he averaged between 15 to 20. I think Schenn will be similar.
Foote was actually drafted as an offensive dman. As a junior, his world-class skating skills allowed him to rack up points. In his best year in the OHL, I think he had like 70 points (sorry, too lazy to look it up). So, the fact that he eventually had a few 30 point seasons (although his norm was closer to 20 points) is not surprising.

Schenn, by contrast, never even had 30 points in the CHL. In fact, to date, he hasn't shown any hint of offensive skills. And, unlike Foote, he is not a elite skater.

So, looking for Schenn to develop along Foote lines may be a bit over optimistic. Note, by the way, that Schenn's lack of offense means zip to mean in terms of that player's value. He will still be an elite shutdown defender.

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07-28-2009, 01:13 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Foote was actually drafted as an offensive dman. As a junior, his world-class skating skills allowed him to rack up points. In his best year in the OHL, I think he had like 70 points (sorry, too lazy to look it up). So, the fact that he eventually had a few 30 point seasons (although his norm was closer to 20 points) is not surprising.

Schenn, by contrast, never even had 30 points in the CHL. In fact, to date, he hasn't shown any hint of offensive skills. And, unlike Foote, he is not a elite skater.

So, looking for Schenn to develop along Foote lines may be a bit over optimistic. Note, by the way, that Schenn's lack of offense means zip to mean in terms of that player's value. He will still be an elite shutdown defender.
While you're correct that Foote's offensive game seemed more refined than Schenn's, keep in mind the era in which each played junior. During Foote's time in the OHL, scoring was a lot higher.

When he recorded his 69 points, his Greyhounds were one of nine teams in the league to score 300 or more goals, and the entire top-10 in the scoring race had 104 or more points. This past season, as a comparison, only the Memorial Cup winning Spitfires scored over 300 goals, and only Tavares scored over 100 points in the scoring race.

So if you take Schenn's career high in junior of 28 points, in a notoriously low scoring league (the WHL isn't typically as high scoring as the OHL or QMJHL), and extrapolate that into a higher scoring league, during a higher scoring era of junior, and it's closer to about a 40 to 45 point season. Still not the same as Foote's, mind you, but no longer quite the disparity in totals.

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07-28-2009, 06:13 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
As much as I love Bailey, that decision could really end up biting the Islanders in the behind. In retrospect, Bailey's almost overkill when you consider the Isles also have Okposo and now Tavares as "future star forwards". On the back end, having someone like Schenn would go a long way toward solidifying things in their own zone for years to come.
I dont know if you can have overkill on future star forwards, especially coming from a team wth Staal, Malkin and the Sidney kid
I can see Tavares as the #1 center eventually and see Bailey as #2 or if the way in the future once the Isles are not only playoff contenders but SC contenders Bailey can be traded as a part of a deal as the last piece.
Schenn is a great player, but it seems like we can get another guy that can play as well as Schenn in a trade or a signing in a few seasons. It is also a future thing also. It seems that Bailey has a higher ceiling still then L Schenn and i am liking his development also

And it is great having you over here on the Isles board, you always knowledgable and non fanboyish. I am sure I am not the only one here that thinks that.

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07-28-2009, 11:56 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
While you're correct that Foote's offensive game seemed more refined than Schenn's, keep in mind the era in which each played junior. During Foote's time in the OHL, scoring was a lot higher.

When he recorded his 69 points, his Greyhounds were one of nine teams in the league to score 300 or more goals, and the entire top-10 in the scoring race had 104 or more points. This past season, as a comparison, only the Memorial Cup winning Spitfires scored over 300 goals, and only Tavares scored over 100 points in the scoring race.

So if you take Schenn's career high in junior of 28 points, in a notoriously low scoring league (the WHL isn't typically as high scoring as the OHL or QMJHL), and extrapolate that into a higher scoring league, during a higher scoring era of junior, and it's closer to about a 40 to 45 point season. Still not the same as Foote's, mind you, but no longer quite the disparity in totals.
I'm not a big fan of "extrapolating" or "projecting" totals. A player has scored what he has scored - not what we project him to score in a different league or different circumstances.

Anyway you slice it, Schenn has never put up numbers at any stage of development . There is no reason to believe he is suddenly going to become a two-way guy in the NHL.

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07-29-2009, 07:01 AM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
While you're correct that Foote's offensive game seemed more refined than Schenn's, keep in mind the era in which each played junior. During Foote's time in the OHL, scoring was a lot higher.

When he recorded his 69 points, his Greyhounds were one of nine teams in the league to score 300 or more goals, and the entire top-10 in the scoring race had 104 or more points. This past season, as a comparison, only the Memorial Cup winning Spitfires scored over 300 goals, and only Tavares scored over 100 points in the scoring race.

So if you take Schenn's career high in junior of 28 points, in a notoriously low scoring league (the WHL isn't typically as high scoring as the OHL or QMJHL), and extrapolate that into a higher scoring league, during a higher scoring era of junior, and it's closer to about a 40 to 45 point season. Still not the same as Foote's, mind you, but no longer quite the disparity in totals.
By that logic, shouldn't Tavares outscore Gretzky? He did break Gretzky's single season OHL goals record, and Tavares did it in an era when OHL scoring was down. So, by extrapolation....


Oh, almost forgot:

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07-29-2009, 12:27 PM
  #72
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And it is great having you over here on the Isles board, you always knowledgable and non fanboyish. I am sure I am not the only one here that thinks that.
Thank you. I try to look at things as a hockey fan, first and foremost, rather than any team I may have an allegiance to. Which is probably why I'm still in shock the Pens won the Cup, since I didn't overrate their blueline and wasn't sure it was good enough to beat the Wings.

Though, I think some of your fellow Islander fans aren't too happy with my contributions in the Tavares thread.

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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
I'm not a big fan of "extrapolating" or "projecting" totals. A player has scored what he has scored - not what we project him to score in a different league or different circumstances.

Anyway you slice it, Schenn has never put up numbers at any stage of development . There is no reason to believe he is suddenly going to become a two-way guy in the NHL.
You're right. I guess my point was less about Schenn's production, and more about pointing out Foote's totals had more to do with the era he played Junior in, than the fact he was actually head-and-shoulders above today's "defensive defensemen" in terms of offense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by doublechili View Post
By that logic, shouldn't Tavares outscore Gretzky? He did break Gretzky's single season OHL goals record, and Tavares did it in an era when OHL scoring was down. So, by extrapolation....


Oh, almost forgot:
Actually, it'd be more accurate to suggest Gretzky's totals wouldn't be as high if he played now, rather than during the 80's when it was a more wide open game.

But yes, since Tavares broke Gretzky's 16 year old goal scoring record (keep in mind Gretzky didn't hold the record for most OHL goals in a season, just the record for most goals by a 16 year old), you Islander fans better expect him to score 93 goals at some point in his career, or you might as well write him off as a bust.

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04-24-2013, 10:07 PM
  #73
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I apologize for bumping this ancient, ancient thread I started long ago, but I thought it would be interesting to see what we thought back then compared to now, more so than to point fingers at who gets to eat the most crow.

.....though I am damned happy to see a leap of faith I made show some reason.

Congratulations, Garth - I'm certain more of us are behind you than ever before.

Now use that playoff revenue to get some high-end depth in net this summer and freeze out more haters.

A toast to Snowplow.

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04-24-2013, 10:12 PM
  #74
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Make the playoffs once every six years? He hasnt gotten a very good player with any of his 1st round picks besides Tavares, he wasn't able to convince Wang to get rid of Dipietro till now, and I have seen expansion teams make the playoffs and win playoff rounds. His anti social, dour personality dont help either. If you put ten AHL teams in the NHL, and gave them all a Nabakov and a Taveres, one or two would make the NHL playoffs.

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04-24-2013, 10:20 PM
  #75
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Stop digging up old threads! Sheesh.

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