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2016 ATD Milt Dunnel Cup Finals: Vancouver Millionaires vs. Pittsburgh AC

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Old
05-23-2016, 02:56 AM
  #1
Sturminator
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2016 ATD Milt Dunnel Cup Finals: Vancouver Millionaires vs. Pittsburgh AC

Vancouver Millionares

1915 Stanley Cup Champions
Home Rink: Denman Arena (1911)
Head Coach: Tommy Ivan

Anatoli Firsov - Alex Delvecchio (C) - Jaromir Jagr (A)
Cy Denneny - Frank Fredrickson - Theoren Fleury
Adam Graves - Walt Tkaczuk - Ed Westfall
Simon Gagne - Bobby Holik - John Pie McKenzie

King Clancy (A) - Tom Johnson
'Moose' Vasko - Bullet Joe Simpson
Bobby Rowe - Mathieu Schneider

Bill Durnan
George Hainsworth

Spares: Doug Weight C, Andrei Markov D, Jim Pappin RW, Mattias Ohlund D,

1st unit PP:

Denneny - Delvecchio - Jagr
Simpson - Clancy

2nd unit PP:

Firsov - Fredrickson - Fleury
T.Johnson - Schneider

Alternates: Tkaczuk

1st unit PK:

Tkaczuk - Westfall
T.Johnson - Vasko

2nd unit PK:

Delvecchio - Firsov
Clancy - Rowe

Alternates: Holik - Fleury


vs.

Pittsburgh AC


Coach: Lester Patrick

Vladimir Krutov-Frank Boucher-Brett Hull
Frank Foyston (C)-Marty Barry-Andy Bathgate
Jiri Holik-Ivan Hlinka (A)-Bob Nevin
Don Marshall-Dale Hunter-Terry O'Reilly
Kent Nilsson, Brenden Morrow, Jack Adams

Ebbie Goodfellow (A)-Doug Harvey
Georges Boucher-Bob Goldham
Rod Seiling-Nikolai Sologubov
Viktor Kuzkin

Grant Fuhr
Rogie Vachon

PP1: Hull-Boucher-Barry-Bathgate-Harvey
PP2: Krutov-Hlinka-Foyston-Boucher-Goodfellow

PK1: Marshall-Nevin-Harvey-Goldham
PK2: Boucher-Holik-Goodfellow-Seiling
Extras: Foyston, Hunter, Boucher

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Old
05-23-2016, 06:42 AM
  #2
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Gooood luck!!

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Old
05-23-2016, 10:46 AM
  #3
BenchBrawl
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Congratulation to both teams for reaching the final.

Here's hoping for a good series.

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Old
05-23-2016, 12:21 PM
  #4
monster_bertuzzi
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Good luck Rob, you are obviously a great GM and your franchise is one of the most intimidating in the ATD year after year, and obviously this version is no differen't.

I'll try and get to matchup's eventually, I think the biggest win for Van is at goaltending in this one. I've already made my feeling about Fuhr very clear in the assasination thread, and while Rob did well to get a top notch backup in Vachon - we've got Hainsworth on the bench...who is probably better than Fuhr IMO.

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Old
05-23-2016, 05:01 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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It's a tribute to the parity of the ATD that the two teams in the finals are each below average in what are traditionally the most important parts of an ATD champion - top line (Pittsburgh) and top 4 D (Vancouver). Normally, ATD champions are at least average in every area, or have weaknesses lower down the lineup (2nd line, 3rd pairing, etc).

Not a criticism of these teams - they are deserving of being here. Nobody managed to construct a team with no weaknesses this year - again, a sign that other GMs were paying attention.

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Old
05-24-2016, 06:42 AM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
It's a tribute to the parity of the ATD that the two teams in the finals are each below average in what are traditionally the most important parts of an ATD champion - top line (Pittsburgh) and top 4 D (Vancouver). Normally, ATD champions are at least average in every area, or have weaknesses lower down the lineup (2nd line, 3rd pairing, etc).

Not a criticism of these teams - they are deserving of being here. Nobody managed to construct a team with no weaknesses this year - again, a sign that other GMs were paying attention.
I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Both GMs could have built contenders on a more classic model if they hadn't invested early picks in second line wingers; as far as I can tell, they simply chose not to. To me, it looks more like an evolution in team-building philosophy than it does a matter of insufficient resources due to increasing parity.

Vancouver is definitely forward-heavy in a way that is rarely seen among contenders, but Pittsburgh's only real deviation from the classic model seems to be that Rob elected to split up his top two forwards, which, given their skillsets, seems like a rather obvious choice.


Last edited by Sturminator: 05-24-2016 at 06:48 AM.
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Old
05-24-2016, 01:04 PM
  #7
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Looking forward to it MB!

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Old
05-24-2016, 03:07 PM
  #8
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Some initial observations:
  • Krutov vs. Jagr won't happen if Pittsburgh wants to win.
  • Physically strong, tough-playin' center match-ups, Fredrickson vs. Barry, Tkaczuk vs. Hlinka, Holik vs. Hunter. the edge goes to Pittsburgh.
  • Schneider vs. Seiling, who's less deserving of an all-time great team championship as a starter?
  • Fleury, Holik, Clancy, Rowe vs. Foyston, Hlinka, Hunter, Harvey for depth clutch play.
  • Firsov vs. Sologubov for question marks against the best of their era, because they didn't play at the highest level of competition.
  • Bill Durnan vs. Grant Fuhr is a top team star versus the 6th or 7th best player on his team.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider
    Montreal finished 1st in goals against during six of the seven years Durnan played for them. In the four years immediately before/after Durnan, Montreal never finished better than 3rd place (in a six team league).

    In terms of overall standings, Montreal was 2nd place or better in five of seven years. In the four years immediately before/after Durnan, Montreal never finished 2nd or better just one time.

    Conclusion: Unless there's a big coincidence, Durnan was directly responsible for his team's excellent regular season standings and low goals against, because performed dropped in the years immediately before and after Durnan played for the Habs.

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Old
05-24-2016, 06:14 PM
  #9
monster_bertuzzi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Both GMs could have built contenders on a more classic model if they hadn't invested early picks in second line wingers; as far as I can tell, they simply chose not to. To me, it looks more like an evolution in team-building philosophy than it does a matter of insufficient resources due to increasing parity.

Vancouver is definitely forward-heavy in a way that is rarely seen among contenders, but Pittsburgh's only real deviation from the classic model seems to be that Rob elected to split up his top two forwards, which, given their skillsets, seems like a rather obvious choice.
Denneny was never intended to be on the second line heheh, we were lucky to be able to select another borderline top 5 LW in Firsov.

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05-24-2016, 07:43 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Denneny was never intended to be on the second line heheh, we were lucky to be able to select another borderline top 5 LW in Firsov.
The HOH list has him at 10 and I think calling him a "borderline top 5 LW" is a little bit of a fib.

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05-24-2016, 09:26 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ResilientBeast View Post
The HOH list has him at 10 and I think calling him a "borderline top 5 LW" is a little bit of a fib.
Another example of a guy being severely overpimped because of a bit of evidence showing solid play away from the puck (which I have yet to actually see and nobody seems to care enough to consolidate it, which I have asked for on multiple occasions).

Hopefully MB doesn't get away with it anymore. Firsov is starting to get overrated the way Kharlamov used to.

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Old
05-25-2016, 12:04 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Some initial observations:

Quote:
Montreal finished 1st in goals against during six of the seven years Durnan played for them. In the four years immediately before/after Durnan, Montreal never finished better than 3rd place (in a six team league).

In terms of overall standings, Montreal was 2nd place or better in five of seven years. In the four years immediately before/after Durnan, Montreal never finished 2nd or better just one time.

Conclusion: Unless there's a big coincidence, Durnan was directly responsible for his team's excellent regular season standings and low goals against, because performed dropped in the years immediately before and after Durnan played for the Habs.
Not at all a fan of this analysis. It ignores quite a few questionable facts about Bill Durnan's career.

1) His NHL career was exactly seven seasons long.

2) He was a 1st team all-star six times in the era when the goalie whose team had the lowest GAA was always voted as the 1st team all-star. His all-star placements were team awards. The 2nd team all-star was actually more meaningful during Durnan's career.

3) His first three all-star awards came against incredibly weak competition in 1943-44, 1944-45, and 1945-46. The second place finishers in those years? I bet very few ATD GMs can name the second place guys in the first two years. They are Paul Bibeault and Mike Karakas. Brimsek finished 2nd in 1945-46, which sounds like reasonable competition...until you realize that he came back from military service in the middle of the season and only played 34 out of 50 games. The fact that Brimsek was almost certainly out of shape, just like all of the returning veterans in that season, in the games he did play makes it clear how poor the competitive level was in goal in that season.

Bill Durnan spent fully half of his all-star seasons playing in a league with competition at goal almost certainly below the level of the present-day AHL.

4. He had a serious meltdown in his final playoff appearance for the Habs, basically suffering a nervous breakdown and getting run off the ice by the Rangers. Durnan was summarily dumped by Habs management after that incident and replaced as starter the next season by the unspectacular Gerry McNeil.

5. 1944, 1945 and 1946 were the only seasons the Habs (notoriously, the only wartime team that didn't lose considerable talent to the draft) would win the Cup with Durnan in goal. They did not win anything in the full strength postwar league with Durnan between the pipes, but they did win two seasons after his retirement with McNeil (1952).

-----------------------------------------------

In a playoff series, I'm really not sure which starting goalie I'd prefer here.

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Old
05-25-2016, 05:04 AM
  #13
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seventies and I agreed to use the normalization method discussed in the main thread to determine home ice in this series. Based on the results of that method, Vancouver came out one point ahead of Pittsburgh in the regular season results, and thus has home ice advantage for the Finals.

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05-25-2016, 06:39 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
In a playoff series, I'm really not sure which starting goalie I'd prefer here.
This is a very extreme opinion.

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Old
05-26-2016, 12:30 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
This is a very extreme opinion.
Meh...is it? It's not exactly news. Here, I'll quote myself from last year:

Quote:
Regarding the rest:

Quote:
Broda/Durnan/Parent/Belfour/Holecek
Worters/Esposito
Bower
Smith/Fuhr
...I think you ignore the realities of the ATD with these rankings, and are awfully uncritical of a few of the guys at the top (though I don't feel like taking shots at anybody's picks right now).

First, your bottom three are all guys whose regular season starts got limited by their coaches during their playing careers, but who were postseason monsters. Goalies are not like skaters: how many starts a guy gets in the regular season has a big effect on how he does in the awards voting. Goalies whose regular season starts were limited for any reason but who were dominant in the postseason will tend to be considerably more valuable in this setting (and in real life, I might add) than they look if you just crunch the numbers. Regular-season workhorses are also less valuable here because quality backups are plentiful, and everybody makes the playoffs, anyway.
I believe that goalies whose reputations are mainly built on regular season performance are overrated in the ATD. Unlike skaters, where I pretty much universally give regular season record a lot of weight in my calculations, I think goalie value has to be parsed with an additional factor in mind: opportunity - or games played, in other words.

In the case of goalies who consistently played excellently in the postseason but got fewer starts than their competition during the regular season, I think their regular season awards records seriously underrate the performance one can expect from them in a playoff series. This goes for Fuhr, Bower and Smith most specifically, though there are others who are affected by this judgment at the margins.

My issues with Bill Durnan's record are also longstanding, going back to my research on Frank Brimsek a few years ago.

Quote:
In the case of Durnan and Broda, both are brought down a peg or two by the fact that their 1st team all-star selections offer us literally no information that we can't find in their respective team goals-against stats, and Durnan's short career and playoff meltdown at the end disturb me.

Seriously, give me the choice between Parent, Broda, Durnan, Bower, Smith, Esposito, Worters, Fuhr and Holecek in an ATD (not an HOH project, mind you), and I'll answer with a blank, indifferent stare.

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05-26-2016, 12:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Meh...is it? It's not exactly news. Here, I'll quote myself ...
Only Sturm would quote himself to prove he's right and not see the irony in the situation.

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Old
05-28-2016, 03:01 AM
  #17
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Quote:
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Only Sturm would quote himself to prove he's right and not see the irony in the situation.
Only you would take that post as an assertion of my infallibility.

I was simply trying to point out that my public opinion on this matter is nothing new. monster could have taken me to task for my statements about Durnan when they were first made, but chose not to do so.

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05-28-2016, 03:53 AM
  #18
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It seems it's about time to vote?

(two days from now?... five days from now? ... a date should be set: even seven days from now is better than leaving it open to delay/procrastinate.)

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05-28-2016, 05:29 PM
  #19
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There's been no debate whatsoever.I would give more time, this is the Finals after all.

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Old
05-29-2016, 05:58 PM
  #20
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First Lines:

I think this one should be unanimous in favour of Van. We have arguably a top three line in the league, and the three of them are absolutely the strength and the engine this year and the biggest reason we have made it this far.

Jagr>Boucher
Firsov>Hull
Delvecchio>>Krutov

Or:

Jagr>>Hull
Boucher>Delvecchio
Firsov>>>Krutov

I also consider Krutov a fairly weak 1st liner overall, there is no weak pin on Van's top line.

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Old
05-29-2016, 06:08 PM
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Second lines:

That moment when you admit defeat. There weren't many better second lines in the league than mine, but Rob constructed one of them that was.

Bathgate>Denneny
Barry>Fredrickson
Fleury>Foyston

I do think Fleury has the higher skill set, but Foyston gets the edge on defensive positioning, so their value as a third wheel is probably pretty close.

These are two absolutely frighteningly good second lines, and I don't think their afvantage in this one makes or breaks a 7 game series for them.

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Old
05-30-2016, 03:53 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Second lines:

That moment when you admit defeat. There weren't many better second lines in the league than mine, but Rob constructed one of them that was.

Bathgate>Denneny
Barry>Fredrickson
Fleury>Foyston

I do think Fleury has the higher skill set, but Foyston gets the edge on defensive positioning, so their value as a third wheel is probably pretty close.

These are two absolutely frighteningly good second lines, and I don't think their afvantage in this one makes or breaks a 7 game series for them.
Yeah, I agree with this, though Foyston's playoff record as a scorer should be mentioned. At any rate, if Pittsburgh wins this series it will be because their blueline is superior at every position but #5.

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06-01-2016, 08:11 AM
  #23
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This series is a bit interesting to me because I lost to one of them and they are both similar in that they have stacked up Top 6s that quickly drop off into weaker two-way or simply role players.. Pittsburgh probably a bit less so than Vancouver with Hlinka etc..

Vancouver has the best front line and Pittsburgh has a much better defense - much like I did in my series against Vancouver which they overcame somehow - but Pittsburgh has worse goaltending no matter your thoughts on Durnan.

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Old
06-01-2016, 10:02 AM
  #24
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Ok so I think we need to set a deadline and vote already

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Old
06-01-2016, 10:05 AM
  #25
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This last weekend was a holiday weekend here in the States for Memorial Day, a lot of people traveling and whatnot, that may explain RS's absence...I'd be inclined to give him a little more time

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