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ATD 2017 Final: Chicago Shamrocks vs Montreal Canadiens

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Old
06-06-2017, 08:37 AM
  #1
Theokritos
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ATD 2017 Final: Chicago Shamrocks vs Montreal Canadiens

Chicago Shamrocks


Head Coach: Joel Quenneville
Captain: Syl Apps
Alternate Captains: Daniel Alfredsson, Lionel Hitchman


Cy Denneny - Syl Apps (C) - Daniel Alfredsson (A)
Gord Roberts - Pavel Datsyuk - Sergei Makarov
Vincent Damphousse - Anze Kopitar - Jimmy Ward
Don Marcotte - Brent Sutter - Eric Nesterenko

Spares: Murray Oliver, John MacLean

Lionel Conacher - Chris Chelios
Lionel Hitchman (A) - Harry Cameron
Gary Bergman - Bob Armstrong

Spares: Calle Johansson, Ron Stackhouse

Tony Esposito
Hap Holmes


Special Teams
PP1: Denneny - Apps - Makarov - Bergman - Cameron

PP2: Roberts - Datsyuk - Alfredsson - Conacher - Chelios


PK1: Marcotte - Nesterenko - Hitchman - Chelios

PK2: Kopitar - Sutter - Conacher - Armstrong

Extra PK F: Makarov, Damphousse, Datsyuk
Extra PK D: Bergman



Estimated Minutes

Forwards
Player ES PP PK Total
C. Denneny 14 5 19
S. Apps 14 5 19
D. Alfresson 14 2 16
G. Roberts 13 2 15
P. Datsyuk 14 2 16
S. Makarov 14 5 19
V. Damphousse 13 13
A. Kopitar 12 3 15
J. Ward 12 12
D. Marcotte 6 4 10
B. Sutter 6 3 9
E. Nesterenko 6 4 10
TOTAL 138 21 14 173
*Makarov and Datsyuk will take a shift or two on the 3rd line (but not at the same time)

Defense
Player ES PP PK Total
C. Chelios 19 3 4 26
L. Conacher 17 2 3 22
H. Cameron 16 5 21
L. Hitchman 15 4 19
Bergman 14 4 18
Armstrong 11 3 14
TOTAL 92 14 14 120
*Chelios will take several shifts for Armstrong at ES
**Bergman will take an occasional shift for Hitchman at the end of games/periods in offensive zone situations.



Chicago Shamrocks Real World Team History

In 1930, James Norris pursued the NHL for rights to a second NHL team in Chicago, but was spurned by the league who supported the NHL Chicago Black Hawks concerns regarding competition for fan base. He turned to the American Hockey Association who gave him rights to an expansion team in Chicago. The league had renamed itself the American Hockey League and declared itself a major league, to the anger of NHL president Frank Calder, who branded the league an outlaw league.

In 1931-32 season, their second, the Shamrocks won the league championship. Convinced they should be given a chance to play for the Stanley Cup, they petitioned the Cup trustees for that opportunity. However the trustees would have to convince the NHL to accept that challenge and the NHL would not. Perhaps frustrated by this, Norris once again looked to join the NHL.

In May 1932, the Detroit Falcons of the NHL declared bankruptcy, and Norris used that opportunity to convince the NHL he could take over the team. The NHL agreed on the condition that he disband the Shamrocks who were a thorn in the side of the Chicago Blackhawks. So he disbanded the Shamrocks and took three of the best players with him to Detroit, renaming the team the Red Wings. The American Hockey League reverted to the American Hockey Association after this and once again demoted itself to minor league status.

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06-06-2017, 08:38 AM
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MONTREAL CANADIENS



GM: BenchBrawl

Captain: Derian Hatcher
Assistant: Bryan Trottier
Assistant: Shea Weber
Assistant: Doug Harvey


HEAD COACH

Al Arbour

ROSTER

Patrik Elias - Bryan Trottier (A) - Bernard Geoffrion
Paul Thompson - Mike Modano - Glenn Anderson
Jamie Benn - Frank Fredrickson - Tony Amonte
Dave Andreychuk - Gregg Sheppard - Jerry Toppazzini

Doug Harvey (A) - Shea Weber (A)
Derian Hatcher (C) - Georges Boucher
Jimmy Watson - Ted Green

Frank Brimsek
Carey Price

Spares: Joe Pavelski, Marian Gaborik, Brian Campbell, Bill Thoms

PP1: Andreychuk - Trottier - Fredrickson - Harvey - Geoffrion
PP2: Thompson - Modano - Elias - Weber - Boucher

PK1: Modano - Toppazzini - Hatcher - Harvey
PK2: Trottier - Sheppard - Boucher - Weber



Forward Minutes
PlayerES PP PK Total
Trottier 14 4 3 21
Modano 13 3 4 20
Geoffrion 14 5* 0 19
Fredrickson 13 4 0 17
Elias 14 3 0 17
Thompson 13 3 0 16
Anderson 13 0 0 13
Benn 13 0 0 13
Amonte 13 0 0 13
Toppazzini 6 0 4 10
Andreychuk 6 4 0 10
Sheppard 6 0 3 9
TOTAL 138 26* 14 178*

Defensemen Minutes
PlayerES PP PK Total
Harvey 20 5 5 30
Weber 17 2 2 21
Boucher 17 2 2 21
Hatcher 15 0 5 20
Green 15 0 0 15
Watson 8 0 0 8
TOTAL 92 9* 14 115*

*Geoffrion plays the point on the PP

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06-06-2017, 08:50 AM
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BenchBrawl
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Congrats and good luck HT18.Hoping for a great Finals.

I'm busy today so I won't comment until tomorrow.

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06-06-2017, 08:51 AM
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Congrats to you as well, here's to a good series

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06-07-2017, 11:11 AM
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Goaltending

Montreal have an edge in goaltending.This is made worst by the fact that we are currently in the Finals, and that Tony Esposito never won the cup.Actually, he came quite close in 1971, when Chicago(!) had a 2-0 lead in the 2nd period of Game 7 against Montreal(!), at home, but unfortunately he decided to let in a beach ball from center ice and Montreal came back to win the Stanley Cup by scoring two goals in the 3rd period.Esposito was played poorly in the 1973 Finals.

About Tony Esposito's major screw up in 1971

Quote:
Jacques Lemaire is so well known for his defensive style of coaching that it's easy to forget he had one of the NHL's most feared shots during his playing days. But for all his brilliance, his best-remembered goal is a shot that should never have gone in. In Game 7 of the 1971 Final, the Chicago Blackhawks led 2-0 late in the second period and appeared to have the game in hand until Lemaire teed up a shot from center ice late in the second period.

"The biggest thing I remember was that Jacques Lemaire's goal from the red line," said Jacques Laperriere, then a Montreal defenseman and later an assistant coach for four NHL teams over a 25-year period. "After that, the momentum switched to our side."

[...]

"[Goaltender] Tony [Esposito] was notorious for not being able to see the puck from long distances.
https://www.nhl.com/news/game-7-1971...ctory/c-425361

About that last paragraph, not sure what long distance means, but with Geoffrion and Weber in Montreal's lineup, this could give Esposito some problems (though I wouldn't overly play that card, just a bonus).

There is good reason to believe Esposito is almost singlehandedly responsible for Chicago losing this game in the sense that his screw up switched the momentum, which never returned.Not performing in a grandiose fashion is one thing, screwing up at the worst moment is something else.

The famous goal:


I think the reaction on the woman's face says it all.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyway, since I'm expecting a re-post of ContrarianGoaltender's analysis I might as well just post it here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianGoaltender
Rank Goalie Series W Exp Series Diff % Cups Exp Cups Diff %
1 Turk Broda 15 10.34 4.66 45% 5 3.07 1.93 63%
2 Charlie Gardiner 5 3.1 1.9 61% 1 0.28 0.72 257%
3 Ed Belfour 19 17.77 1.23 7% 1 1.65 -0.65 -39%
4 Johnny Bower 8 6.97 1.03 15% 3 2.37 0.63 27%
5 Tony Esposito 9 8.43 0.57 7% 0 0.76 -0.76 -100%
6 Bernie Parent 9 8.48 0.52 6% 2 0.99 1.01 102%
7 Georges Vezina 3 2.6 0.4 15% 3 2.6 0.4 15%
8 Clint Benedict 5 5.55 -0.55 -10% 3 3.8 -0.8 -21%
9 Frank Brimsek 7 8.37 -1.37 -16% 2 2.84 -0.84 -30%
10 Bill Durnan 5 7.4 -2.4 -32% 2 3.05 -1.05 -34%
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianGoaltender
Brimsek and the Bruins won pretty much what they should have won from 1939 to 1946. What took his numbers down into negative territory was that he ended his career with three straight first-round playoff exits, particularly 1949 when the Bruins were upset by Turk Broda and the eventual surprise Cup champion Maple Leafs.
Since this defense of Esposito's playoffs record includes an attack on Brimsek's, I have no choice but to respond to it.

First, Brimsek's poor statistics in this chart are due to his last three years (which basically always screw Brimsek in every analysis).Second, Brimsek had nothing left to prove by then, whereas Esposito never won the cup and we're still waiting for him to prove himself as being capable to go all the way.Third, when a forward or defenseman wins multiple cups and go on to suck in the playoffs at the end of their career, nobody blinks an eye.Nobody really cares about that.The only negative statistic that forwards accumulate is games played while their point total doesn't get higher, reducing their overall playoff point-per-game average.That's it.And usually, when we check their records, we concentrate on their prime, so I don't know why we would do it differently for Brimsek.Brimsek proved his worth, Esposito didn't.He had a great chance, and what he did was let in a beach ball in the most crucial game of his career when his team had a 2-0 lead.This is called crumbling under pressure.This is unfair, but he must live with it, and so should the GM that drafts him.

Re-posting from the Regina series:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl
About Brimsek's performances in those last three years:

1947

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1.4.1947 - The Montreal Gazette
Durnan, Brimsek Shine

Then, through a full overtime period of 20 minutes and 16 minutes and 40 seconds of another, the big crowd sat tense and tight-lipped as first one team and then the other threatened to break the stalemate. But Bill Durnan and Frankie Brimsek made miraculous saves to keep their nets inviolate. They went to their knees, they came out of their nets, they caught pucks which were flying so fast they were almost invisible to the naked eye, they did the splits and performed other acrobatics to turn aside shots while the crowd sat looking on in a clammy sweat.
1949

Quote:
Freak Tally

The Toronto "clincher" registered during the ninth minute of the second period, was on the "freak" side. While trying to clear Gus Mortson's passout, defenseman Pat Egan topped the puck and it dropped on the line inside goalkeeper Frankie Brimsek, who had swooped out to make the stop. Before the latter could make a move for the puck, Max Bentley swept in and jabbed it home for what proved to be the Leafs' winning goal.

...

Post-game comment by officials of the Boston club, and some of the players, all ran in the same vein. The Bruins fought it out to the finish, and more credit goes to them due to the fact that they so battled while handicapped by the loss through injury of three such capable performers as Milt Schmidt, Jimmy Peters and Johnny Crawford.
I don't have much from 1948.Given that Brimsek was the MVP (or a contender) in at least one SC win (41) if not two (39), and that his record got destroyed by his last three seasons, I wouldn't say the losing record looks that bad for Brimsek.He also lost two prime years to the war which made him lose an opportunity to boost his record.In 1947 we have at least one report of him playing great hockey.

It's unclear how much we should blame Brimsek for those last three years.

Signature Runs by Goalies - or What Matters the Most?

If the W-L record matters, what matters even more is whether the goalie have a signature playoff run.It's clear that when judging the playoff resume of any player (goalie or not), what we usually do first is looking for signature runs, how many there are, how important the player was for his team, and only once this is done do we start looking into consistency and longevity.

Being able to get it done once in your career is much more important than consistently avoiding weak play and staying "average, never good but never bad".

As seen earlier, Brimsek was the probable MVP in 1941.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1941
Brimsek Logical Hero of Stanley Cup Hockey Series


As goes Brimsek so goes the Bruins was the watchword and little Frank came thru (sic)...When you start adding up the credits for the Stanley Cup this year the cool goalie is the answer...

Watching the whole series - from Toronto thru Detroit - there is only one logical hero and that is Brimsek... You can name more of them and the one on the tip of your tongue is Milt Schmidt...That great center was tremendous and so was Jack Crawford."
I'm not sure how much of the credit goes to Brimsek in 1939.Even though he was just a rookie, goalie is about the only position where there's many examples of rookie goalies coming in and putting on a MVP-level clinic in the playoffs, so it's not inconceivable that he was a major part of that run.For what it's worth, LOH said this:

Quote:
He collected 10 shutouts for the Bruins, was awarded the Vezina Trophy for his 1.56 goals-against average and was a huge reason why the Bruins won the Stanley Cup in the spring of 1939.
If anyone has information on Brimsek's importance in 1939 (or any other playoff run) it would be helpful.

Regardless, there are goalies in the ATD that doesn't even have such runs.Hasek is one of them.It's not clear whether Brodeur ever helped his team as much as Brimsek did in 1941.Many goalies have only one or two signature or semi-signature runs.For the most important aspect of a player's playoff resume, Brimsek does just fine.

Conclusion

Frank Brimsek proved he was a worthy playoff performer in his signature runs.Signature runs should be the priority when judging a player's playoff resume.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-10-2017 at 08:30 AM.
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06-07-2017, 11:12 AM
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1st defensive pairings

Starting with their Norris/AST* records:

Harvey: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2*, 2*, 4.
Chelios: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 8
Weber: 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 7, 8, 10
Conacher: 1, 2/3, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8

This is a significant advantage for Montreal.Worst, if we compare both pairing's chemistry, Montreal looks better (IMO).Chicago must rely on an "offense by committee" strategy, which while defendable is not ideal.Montreal's 1st pairing is better offensively, better defensively and just as physical as Chicago's.It also includes the only true elite player in this series, namely Doug Harvey.

The Harvey-Weber pairing will give Montreal an edge in the transition game and we can expect Harvey to control the flow of the game in a way which Chelios or Conacher cannot.



2nd defensive pairings

Georges Boucher vs. Harry Cameron is not a new debate.I chose Boucher when I drafted him because I think his two-way reputation is more secure and he has no negative intangibles like Cameron's bad attitude and questionable defensive play.I do have Boucher up a notch over Cameron, but I guess the case could be made against it.I do find it interesting that when Cameron had the chance to coach himself later in Saskatoon, he chose to play at forward.

I'd like to hear more about Lionel Hitchman vs. Derian Hatcher.Both seems similar: tough, physical stay-at-home defensemen who were also leaders.Hitchman had the big year in 29-30, but it's hard to get a read on him otherwise.There's many scoring placements among defensemen in his profile, but those seem a bit weird, for example the playoffs placements (2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 6th) where Hitchman scored...1 point in each of those.What am I missing? Otherwise is there any significant difference between Hitchman and Hatcher?

I think both pairings are fairly similar in value, but Boucher is less of a question mark than Cameron.

3rd Defensive Pairings

Norris Voting

Green: 3, 7, 9, 13
Bergman: 6, 11, 11
Armstrong: 7, 8, 9
Watson: 6

All of these guys are similar, with Green standing out slightly.Watson will see less icetime than any other out of this group.I don't have much to add, anyone can elaborate if they want.

I guess this is a minor advantage for Montreal.

Overall

Montreal have the edge on defense, by and large because of Doug Harvey, which is the only elite player in this Finals.Harvey played in 10 consecutive SC Finals, and was the cornerstone of the greatest dynasty in hockey history, so his experience should make a great difference.

Montreal's first three defensemen are arguably better than each of Chicago's first three defensemen (Harvey>Chelios, Weber>Conacher and Boucher>Cameron).Montreal's fifth defenseman is also better than whoever is Chicago's fifth (Green > Armstrong/Bergman).


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-09-2017 at 02:39 AM.
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06-07-2017, 11:13 AM
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1st Lines

First, I'm skeptical of Denneny's VsX number of 96.I'd like to see the whole thing before taking it at face value.I'm not sure I like Denneny over Bossy.His score could end up anywhere in the 90-96 range.Here's a chart (RVsX stands for Replacement score):

Name VsX7 RVsX Playoffs Note
Denneny [90-96] Small VeryGood fighter
Trottier 93.7 96.2 Great 2way/physical
Apps 92.4 99.6 VeryGood
Geoffrion 89.9 98.9 Great
Alfredsson 82.3 87.9 Good 2way
Elias 78.9 83 Good 2way

The Denneny-Apps combo is strong offensively but brings little else except for Denneny's pugilism (which would undoubtedbly come against one of Montreal's defensemen, if it comes to that).

The Trottier-Geoffrion combo is superior in almost every way except regular season offense (in which both duos are fairly similar).Even on a per-game basis, even if Apps gets a big boost, so does Geoffrion.Denneny rarely missed games so his score will rise very little from VsX7 to RVsX.

Trottier alone almost brings more intangible than Chicago's entire line, but he also has Elias to back him up defensively.Alfredsson is the defensive conscience of Chicago's line.Montreal has the edge in playoffs, even if Chicago is also strong there.Overall Montreal has the edge on the 1st lines.

2nd Lines

Unlike Denneny's 96, I'm completely fine with Makarov at 96 (and I really don't care about Roberts' score).He seemed very healthy throughout his prime, so like Denneny his score won't rise much from VsX7 to RVsX.

Name VsX7 RVsX Playoffs Note
Makarov 96 Small Great
Thompson 82.6 83.3 Good
Datsyuk 82.5 86.6 Good 2way(elite)
Modano 81.5 85.7 VeryGood 2way
Roberts 74.1 ? Good physical
Anderson 72 73.9 VeryGood hardworker/netcrasher

Makarov is a great weapon on the 2nd line, and with Datsyuk there the amount of skills is through the roof.Datsyuk is an elite defensive center.Modano is also a strong defensive center, though not of Datsyuk's caliber.Their offense are comparable, but Modano has a bit more longevity on his side.I prefer Anderson to Roberts, mostly because of Anderson's playoffs performances and strong EVsX score.

Makarov alone is enough to make this line a big advantage for Chicago, and I think it's the most significant aspect of Chicago's line-up.

3rd Lines

A different table for the 3rd lines:

Name ESVsX Playoffs
Fredrickson ? VeryGood
Amonte 569 Bad
Damphousse 548 Good
Benn 547 Neutral
Kopitar 532 VeryGood
Ward ? Good

I think Frank Fredrickson is the best offensive player of the bunch, and Jamie Benn is the second best.Benn's ESVsX number is lower than Amonte and virtually the same as Damphousse's, but he did peak much higher as an offensive player.

Chicago's 3rd line is much better defensively but I don't think it can compete in terms of star power.

The Benn-Fredrickson-Amonte line has near perfect chemistry, with Benn-Fredrickson bringing size and strenght, plus a great deal of offense for a 3rd line, and Fredrickson-Amonte bringing a crap ton of speed.The line is decent defensively by committee led by Fredrickson.Chicago's chemistry is good, fairly balanced in goalscoring and playmaking, and each player is a good defensive player.

This is an advantage for Montreal.

Center Lines

Montreal have the better center line.

Trottier > Apps
Modano < Datsyuk
Fredrickson > Kopitar

Conclusion

Having Makarov on the 2nd line is a huge weapon for Chicago.This is the biggest advantage overall, though Montreal compensate with a better 1st and 3rd lines and a better center line overall.Chicago has three Top 100 players in their forward group against two for Montreal.

From line to line, Montreal's forward group seems more "coherent" or "homogenously built".That's not necessarily a positive, though it fits with Arbour's style to roll the three lines.It's a tightly-knot group build around a two-way center line.

Chicago has the 1-2 punch which is very dangerous.Having the Denneny-Apps and Makarov on two lines is a luxury which gives them superior offensive power.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-07-2017 at 11:22 AM.
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06-07-2017, 11:13 AM
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Coaching

This is an advantage for Montreal.Both guys won multiple cups with the same core of players, though only Arbour coached a true dynasty.I don't think the gap is very big, but it's there.

I'd like to hear more about how the Shamrocks ressembles the Blackhawks that Quenneville coached.One seems to be missing is the great #1 defenseman that Quenneville had with Duncan Keith.

Montreal strongly ressembles the NYI dynasty in structure, and this gives a nice coach-players synergy.

Re-posting:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl
As for team fits, there are some similarities between the Montreal Canadiens and the NYI dynasty, which should produce a nice synergy between Arbour and his players.

-The first obvious similarity is the Arbour-Trottier reunion.
-The best winger on the team is a goalscoring RWer and he plays with Trottier, just as it was with Bossy (even if I understand Geoffrion is not exactly like Bossy).
-Just like the NYI dynasty, Montreal's wingers (Elias, Thompson, Benn, Anderson, Amonte), with the exception of Geoffrion and ignoring side, are pretty much all interchangeable in value.I understand this is not really the case, and that there's still a hierarchy between them (e.g. Thompson > Anderson), but their value is not that far from each other.
-The team's best player is a superstar #1 defenseman who can do it all.
-The top 3 lines (more specifically the center line) are two-way (you criticized my third line for its lack of defense, which I will try to address in my forward post later).


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-11-2017 at 09:00 AM.
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06-07-2017, 11:14 AM
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Special Units

Overall, I'm pretty much looking for others to chime in and give their opinions on those special units.I have no strong conclusion.

Powerplay

1st Units

Minor change, I switch Fredrickson and Thompson.

Denneny-Apps-Makarov-Bergman-Cameron

vs.

Andreychuk-Trottier-Thompson-Harvey-Geoffrion

Chicago's forwards look impressive.Cameron is a strong offensive defenseman, and Bergman is...meh.On the other side, Montreal's forwards look less impressive, though Andreychuk is actually a strong PP player, regardless of his actual "ranking" in the ATD.Will Denneny be significantly better than Andreychuk as a net presence? Or better at alll? Makarov is greatly superior than Thompson.Montreal's strenght comes from possessing what is arguably the greatest PP pairing in hockey history.Harvey-Geoffrion is a proven commodity.The conclusion of this comparison depends on how you view Denneny vs. Andreychuk, and how much you value having Harvey-Geoffrion.

Doug Harvey on the point:


Bernard Geoffrion's booming shots:


2nd Units

Roberts - Datsyuk - Alfredsson - Conacher - Chelios

vs.

Elias - Modano - Fredrickson - Weber - Boucher

Montreal has the edge, mostly because of the Weber-Boucher pairing.Shea Weber's slapshot (just like Geoffrion's), should give some trouble to Tony Esposito (who apparently struggled on long distance shots).



Penalty Kill

1st Units

Marcotte - Nesterenko - Hitchman - Chelios

vs.

Modano - Toppazzini - Hatcher - Harvey

Both defensemen pairings are awesome and pretty much equal.I guess it boils down to Marcotte vs. Modano, which is an edge for Marcotte, therefore an edge for Chicago.

2nd Units

Kopitar - Sutter - Conacher - Armstrong

vs.

Trottier - Sheppard - Boucher - Weber

I think Sheppard is the best PKer among those forwards, but I prefer Chicago's defenseman pairing.I have no strong opinion on either of those 2nd PK units.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-09-2017 at 02:39 AM.
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06-07-2017, 11:16 AM
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I got to go now and probably won't be there for a while.Some of my posts were a bit rushed, but I wanted to get the discussions going.I'll be back probably tomorrow or the day after.

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06-07-2017, 12:46 PM
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How big is the gap between Frederickson and Kopitar though?

Anze has a very strong voting record

AST: 3, 6, 6, 8
Hart: 8, 8
Selke: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 9

His offensive finishes are weak for sure but lead his team to cup twice at exactly PPG with overall 64 points in 75 playoff games.

Obviously I'll leave HT to form his rebutal but I'd think Frederickson is weaker defensively than Kopitar while he has the edge offensively for sure


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06-07-2017, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ResilientBeast View Post
How big is the gap between Frederickson and Kopitar though?

Anze has a very strong voting record

AST: 3, 6, 6, 8
Hart: 8, 8
Selke: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 9

His offensive finishes are weak for sure but lead his team to cup twice at exactly PPG with overall 64 points in 75 playoff games.

Obviously I'll leave HT to form his rebutal but I'd think Frederickson is weaker defensively than Kopitar while he has the edge offensively for sure
(EDIT: For more on Fredrickson vs. Kopitar, see this post.)

I don't know how big the gap is, but it's there.First, there are a lot of similarities between Fredrickson and Kopitar.Both were big and strong, came from a outsider background, and were the main offensive player on most of their teams.Both were strong playoff performers.

Like you said, what separates Fredrickson and Kopitar is that Fredrickson was better offensively whereas Kopitar was better defensively, and Fredrickson peaked higher as a hockey player.

Fredrickson's 22-23 season is definitely better than a 8th in Hart voting in the 2010s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ottawa Citizen
Former Falcon has Enviable Record

Frank Frederickson, pride of the Icelandic race, is back in Winnipeg today, after winning the right to be called the greatest player in the Pacific Coast Hockey League. Before the fascinating and sensational playing of the big blonde, the work of such former stars as Mickey MacKay of Vancouver and Frank Foyston of Seattle wilted like the morning glory under the blaze of the noonday sun. Frank is very modest about his achievements, but says he gave hockey his best attention and got results.

Frederickson was the big factor in putting Victoria playoff for the PCHA championship..."Freddie" won the two-fold honor of leading the scorers in the PCHA and also in the inter-league series better than his nearest rival. In the PCHA, he ran in 39 goals and 15 assists during the season for a total of 54 points, which put him 17 points ahead of his closest rival, Mickey MacKay...

There is no player on the coast and none on the prairie that can be put in the class with Frederickson, say coast critics. The NHL may have a candidate, but even the great Frank Nighbor would undoubtedly find it difficult holding his own with the Icelander.

Neither Dick Irvin of Regina nor "Duke" Keats of Edmonton rank with "Freddie". Keats has a good head, but Freddie can skate rings around him and out-stickhandle him, and when it comes to shooting, the honors all go to the former Falcon skipper. Irvin is not capable of going over more than half the route, and while still tricky, clever and fast, he is not the pivot man that Frederickson is.

Frederickson looms as the greatest hockey player that is alive today. His four goals against Edmonton and his four goals and two assists against Seattle brand him as a star the like of which has not been seen in the hockey firmament for many years.
Comment by Sturminator about this quote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator
Now this is quite remarkable. The Ottawa Citizen just comes out and says plainly that Fredrickson is the greatest hockey player in the world, and states that even Frank Nighbor would have trouble with him. Anyone who has read much from the Ottawa Citizen sports desk of this period (as I have while researching the old Sens dynasty) should recognize what an amazing compliment it really is for any player to be compared favorably to Frank Nighbor, who was generally treated as a hockey god by that paper.
I won't get into trying to guess where he would end in Hart voting during his other seasons between 22-23 and 26-27, but he had some strong years in that range too.In 26-27 he joins the NHL and finishes 3rd in Hart voting behind Bill Cook and Herb Gardiner.

rk player age votes %
1 Herb Gardiner 35 89 24.05
2 Bill Cook 30 85 22.97
3 Frank Fredrickson 31 75 20.27
4 Dick Irvin 34 73 19.73
5 King Clancy 23 48 12.97

I don't know what that is worth in the 2010s, but it's not lower than 8th.

20-21, 23-24 and 24-25 were also good years for Fredrickson, though hard to judge what they're worth as far as "consolidated and adjusted all-star teams".


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-09-2017 at 11:06 PM.
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06-08-2017, 10:53 PM
  #13
VanIslander
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Quote:
Cy Denneny - Syl Apps (C) - Daniel Alfredsson (A)
vs.
Patrik Elias - Bryan Trottier (A) - Bernard Geoffrion
Strongest physical player (Trotts), best playoff performers (Trotts, Boom Boom): this match-up is a mismatch.

Quote:
Gord Roberts - Pavel Datsyuk - Sergei Makarov
vs.
Paul Thompson - Mike Modano - Glenn Anderson
Hands down, stolen pucks and slick moves is the difference!

Quote:
Vincent Damphousse - Anze Kopitar - Jimmy Ward
vs.
Jamie Benn - Frank Fredrickson - Tony Amonte
Clutch playoff play and a 120-ft game favors one side.

Quote:
Don Marcotte - Brent Sutter - Eric Nesterenko
vs.
Dave Andreychuk - Gregg Sheppard - Jerry Toppazzini
One of these 4th lines could be a MLD line, the other of course not. I hope which is which is obvious.

If forward lines were the one determinant, I'd predict a sweep for one team. But hey, just look at the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals to see that forward strength is NOT in itself the difference maker.

The defense, goaltending and coaching dynamics will be considered next,...

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06-09-2017, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
S
One of these 4th lines could be a MLD line, the other of course not. I hope which is which is obvious.
It's not obvious to me.... anyone else?

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06-09-2017, 12:49 PM
  #15
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Why Montreal Should Win This Series - or Ingredients Of A Championship Team (Part I)

Re-post from the Regina series:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl
If you asked most hockey fans what they think a team needs in order to win a championship, you'd get many different answers, but some things would come up again and again.The things you'd hear most often would probably be:

-A strong center line
-A strong #1 defenseman
-A strong goalie

This is not very surprising, considering most of the Stanley Cup winners in history have had a strong center line, a strong #1 defenseman and a strong and/or hot goalie.
I want to point out that Montreal has the advantage in all three categories.

Montreal Has the Best Center Line

Bryan Trottier vs. Syl Apps

First, I'm wondering if the Top-20s in scoring are available anywhere in a neat format or table.It took me quite some time to get them and I'm sure others are interested in them too.That would be very kind.Data presented in good faith.

Bryan Trottier's Top 20 Finishes and VsX Numbers

-Goals: 5, 5, 6, 14, 19
-Assists: 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 8, 14, 18
-Points: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 17, 19
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 93.7
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 87.2
-Replacement level (PPG)*: 96.2

Syl Apps' Top 20 Finishes and VsX Numbers

-Goals: 4, 5, 5, 6, 10, 12, 12, 13, 15, 15
-Assists: 1, 1, 6, 6, 11, 14, 16
-Points: 2, 2, 2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 12, 16
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 92.4
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 83.9
-Replacement level (PPG)*: 99.6

*The replacement level (PPG) data can be found in the ATD Summary 2017 thread on page 3.

Hart Top 10 Record

Bryan Trottier: 1, 2, 2, 3, 5*
Syl Apps: 2, 2, 2, 3, 3

*Hesitated to put it at all, only 9 votes.

Competition For Hart

Bryan Trottier:

77-78: (2nd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Guy Lafleur 145 30.66
2 Bryan Trottier 99 20.93
3 Darryl Sittler 67 14.16
4 Don Edwards 34 7.19
5 Brad Park 31 6.55

78-79: (1st)
RK Player Votes %
1 Bryan Trottier 201 43.79
2 Guy Lafleur 84 18.3
3 Marcel Dionne 47 10.24
4 Denis Potvin 46 10.02
5 Mike Palmateer 18 3.92

80-81: (5th)
RK Player Votes %
1 Wayne Gretzky 242 42.68
2 Mike Liut 237 41.8
3 Marcel Dionne 24 4.23
4 Mike Bossy 20 3.53
5 Bryan Trottier 9 1.59

81-82: (2nd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Wayne Gretzky 315 100
2 Bryan Trottier 130 41.27
3 Mike Bossy 34 10.79
4 Peter Stastny 15 4.76
5 Dale Hawerchuk 13 4.13

83-84: (3rd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Wayne Gretzky 306 98.71
2 Rod Langway 102 32.9
3 Bryan Trottier 54 17.42
4 Rick Middleton 31 10
5 Ray Bourque 17 5.48

Syl Apps:

38-39: (2nd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Toe Blake 64 32.99
2 Syl Apps 45 23.2
3 Johnny Gottselig 30 15.46
4 Earl Robertson 28 14.43
5 Eddie Shore 27 13.92

39-40: (2nd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Ebbie Goodfellow 57 28.36
2 Syl Apps 51 25.37
3 Dit Clapper 40 19.9
4 Milt Schmidt 32 15.92
5 Earl Robertson 21 10.45

40-41: (3rd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Bill Cowley 88 23.1
2 Dit Clapper 81 21.26
3 Syl Apps 78 20.47
4 Syd Howe 72 18.9
5 Bryan Hextall 62 16.27

41-42: (2nd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Tom Anderson 86 31.62
2 Syl Apps 48 17.65
3 Lynn Patrick 46 16.91
3 Bill Thoms 46 16.91
3 Frank Brimsek 46 16.91

42-43: (3rd)
RK Player Votes %
1 Bill Cowley 94 32.08
2 Doug Bentley 67 22.87
3 Syl Apps 46 15.7
3 Syd Howe 46 15.7
5 Frank Brimsek 40 13.65

Selke Top 10 Record

-Trottier: 2, 8, 8, 10
-Apps: Pre-Selke, safe bet he wouldn't get any Top 10

Playoffs

-Trottier: 184 pts in 221 games, 6 Stanley Cups
-Apps: 54 pts in 69 games, 3 Stanley Cups

Neither Trottier nor Apps was the best forward in their respective teams, with Bossy and Kennedy taking the honor.Both were the best in some cups, but not overall.

Conclusion

Easy win for Bryan Trottier.The two are about equal offensively, but Trottier is significantly better defensively and way more physical.Also, in his career Trottier drew the tough match-ups nonestop.I'm not a specialist on the 40s Maple Leafs, but didn't Ted Kennedy faced the best centers? It seems logical but you never know.Trottier was also the man on faceoffs (though a role shared with Sutter, Chicago's 4th line center), whereas Kennedy was the man on those Leafs teams.Can't find anything about Apps' faceoff abilities.

***

Mike Modano vs. Pavel Datsyuk

Mike Modano's Top 20 Finishes and VsX Numbers

-Goals: 8, 8, 15, 16, 18
-Assists: 4, 13, 17, 17
-Points: 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 81.5
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 77.7
-Replacement level (PPG): 85.7

Pavel Datsyuk's Top 20 Finishes and VsX Numbers

-Goals: 19
-Assists: 2, 5, 8, 8, 9, 14
-Points: 4, 4, 10, 16, 17
-VsX 7 years (PTS): 82.5
-VsX 10 years (PTS): 77.1
-Replacement level (PPG): 86.6

Hart Top 10 Record

-Modano: 7, 7, 10
-Datsyuk: 3, 9, 10

Selke Top 10 Record

-Modano: 3, 4, 6, 6
-Datsyuk: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 5, 9

Playoffs

-Modano: 146 pts in 176 games, 1 Stanley Cup
-Datsyuk: 113 pts in 157 games, 2 Stanley Cups

Both had a shaky reputation early on in their career.OTOH, I think it's fair to say that Modano was a better player in his signature runs.Modano played absolutely absurd minutes in 99 and 00, to the point where it looks like #2 defenseman icetime.

Conclusion

That's a win for Pavel Datsyuk.He was a much better defensive player and peaked higher offensively.Modano has better longevity and is a better playoff performer, but it's not enough to close the gap.Overall they appear quite close offensively, but the edge goes to the player who peaked higher.Datsyuk's star power is bigger than Modano, though of course having crazy danglings helps in that regard.

***

Frank Fredrickson vs. Anze Kopitar

Harder to compare Fredrickson and Kopitar, but here's an attempt anyway:

Sturminator did an analysis and tried to give "modernized Top finishes" to both Frank Fredrickson and Duke Keats.The methodology and Sturm's post can be found in my Frank Fredrickson bio at the very bottom.

Frank Fredrickson's Top 10 Finishes (Modern Equivalent)

-Goals: 1, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7
-Assists: 1, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8
-Points: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9

Anze Kopitar's Top 20 Finishes

-Goals: 12
-Assists: 8, 9, 9, 14, 14, 20
-Points: 12, 15, 15, 16, 17

Even if you disagree with Sturm's methodology, I see no way that Fredrickson is not much better than Kopitar offensively.

More Details on Fredrickson's Prime Years

20-21

Right off the bat he led the PCHA in scoring and got on the 1st AST at center.Fredrickson is 25 years old by then.

Here's what Ion said (Ion was league referee and officiated all of the league's games):

Quote:
Ion gives him the centre (Fredrickson) berth job, and in so doing, adds that the newcomer has played a dazzling and effective game at all times and that no other player approaches him for all-around effectiveness.
Here's the Top 5 scorers of all leagues from 20-21:

league player pts league player pts
NHL Newsy Lalonde 43 PCHA Frank Fredrickson 32
NHL Babe Dye 40 PCHA Fred Harris 32
NHL Cy Denneny 39 PCHA Frank Foyston 30
NHL Joe Malone 37 PCHA Jack Adams 29
NHL Frank Nighbor 29 PCHA Jim Riley 28

It's unclear where Fredrickson ranks in a consolidated league taking everything into account (not just scoring).But at least he was dominant in the PCHA and Ion's words are flattering.

21-22

Third in PCHA scoring, an unimpressive year for Fredrickson.Finished 1st AST but as a sub.

Here's the Top 5 scorers of all leagues from 21-22:

league player pts league player pts league player pts
NHL Punch Broadbent 46 PCHA Jack Adams 30 WCHL Duke Keats 56
NHL Cy Denneny 39 PCHA Mickey MacKay 26 WCHL George Hay 34
NHL Babe Dye 38 PCHA Frank Fredrickson 25 WCHL Joe Simpson 34
NHL Harry Cameron 35 PCHA Bernie Morris 24 WCHL Ty Arbour 33
NHL Joe Malone 31 PCHA Frank Foyston 23 WCHL Barney Stanley 31

22-23

Most likely the best season of his career, led the PCHA in scoring by a huge margin.Arguably the best player in the world.Obviously finished 1st AST at center.

Here's the Top 5 scorers of all leagues from 22-23:

league player pts league player pts league player pts
NHL Babe Dye 37 PCHA Frank Fredrickson 55 WCHL Art Gagne 43
NHL Cy Denneny 34 PCHA Mickey MacKay 40 WCHL Duke Keats 37
NHL Billy Boucher 31 PCHA Lloyd Cook 30 WCHL George Hay 36
NHL Jack Adams 28 PCHA Frank Foyston 28 WCHL Newsy Lalonde 34
NHL Mickey Roach 27 PCHA Jim Riley 27 WCHL Harry Oliver 32

Some quotes from that year involving his defensive play and the comparison with Nighbor (from an Ottawa newspaper!):

Quote:
"They were a pack of going hounds from whistle to whistle, and Frederickson pulled the greatest line of stuff he has ever shown. The big boy stickhandled his way through for lone scores, drew the defense and passed to others for combined goals, backchecked his opponents till they were dizzy and generally played hob with Seattle.
Quote:
Fredrickson, however, was a marked man all night and in spite of the fact that he was watched closely and given little chance to bore through he managed to notch two counters and was far more effective in the art of back-checking than his elusive rival.
Quote:
There is no player on the coast and none on the prairie that can be put in the class with Frederickson, say coast critics. The NHL may have a candidate, but even the great Frank Nighbor would undoubtedly find it difficult holding his own with the Icelander.

Neither Dick Irvin of Regina nor "Duke" Keats of Edmonton rank with "Freddie". Keats has a good head, but Freddie can skate rings around him and out-stickhandle him, and when it comes to shooting, the honors all go to the former Falcon skipper. Irvin is not capable of going over more than half the route, and while still tricky, clever and fast, he is not the pivot man that Frederickson is.

Frederickson looms as the greatest hockey player that is alive today. His four goals against Edmonton and his four goals and two assists against Seattle brand him as a star the like of which has not been seen in the hockey firmament for many years.
Some comments by Sturminator: "Fredrickson had clearly climbed the mountain by this point, and if the Ottawa Citizen calls him the best player in the world, I think they were probably right. Given the fact that Ion had also called him easily the best player in the PCHA as a rookie in 1920-21, there may be an argument for him being best in the world over a period longer than just the one volcanic season."

23-24

Finished 1st AST at center again.

Here's the Top 5 scorers of all leagues from 23-24:

league player pts league player pts league player pts
NHL Cy Denneny 24 PCHA Art Duncan 31 WCHL Bill Cook 40
NHL Georges Boucher 23 PCHA Frank Fredrickson 28 WCHL Harry Oliver 34
NHL Billy Boucher 22 PCHA Mickey MacKay 25 WCHL Duke Keats 31
NHL Billy Burch 22 PCHA Frank Foyston 23 WCHL George Hay 31
NHL Aurel Joliat 20 PCHA Jack Walker 23 WCHL Barney Stanley 26

A quote from that year:

Quote:
For the last half dozen years Foyston has been considered one of the greatest forwards in the game, being excelled in the west only by Frederickson, the crack Victoria center ice man.
24-25

This is the year that Fredrickson faced Morenz to go on to win the Stanley Cup.There seems to be a contradiction in the ASTs, with one source having Fredrickson as a 1st AST as a sub and the other not having him at all.

Here's the Top 5 scorers of all leagues from 24-25:

league player pts league player pts
NHL Babe Dye 46 WCHL Harry Oliver 33
NHL Cy Denneny 42 WCHL Mickey MacKay 33
NHL Aurel Joliat 41 WCHL Bill Cook 32
NHL Howie Morenz 39 WCHL Duke Keats 32
NHL Red Green 34 WCHL Frank Fredrickson 30

The opinion of one sportswriter:

Quote:
Which one of the following players is the best - please name them in the order they stand - Duke Keats, Howie Morenz, Frank Frederickson?

- Anxious, Stoughton

Your questions, of course, cannot be answered finally. In my opinion Frederickson outshone either Keats or Morenz for the 1924-25 season. He was right at the top of the W.C.L. scoring list and starred when the Victoria Cougars outclassed the Canadiens in the Stanley Cup final, Morenz being the pick of the Montreal team.
25-26

His scoring takes a hit, but he still gets on the 1st WHL AST as center.

Sturm's comment: "This is most likely due to two factors: the fact that Fredrickson received less icetime as a part of the Victoria shift system and the fact that he was a vastly superior defensive center to Irvin."

Here's the Top 8 scorers of all leagues from 25-26:

league player pts league player pts
NHL Nels Stewart 42 WHL Bill Cook 44
NHL Cy Denneny 36 WHL Dick Irvin 36
NHL Carson Cooper 31 WHL Corb Denneny 34
NHL Jimmy Herberts 31 WHL Art Gagne 33
NHL Aurel Joliat 26 WHL George Hay 31
NHL Howie Morenz 26 WHL Duke Keats 29
NHL Jack Adams 26 WHL Harry Oliver 25
NHL Billy Burch 25 WHL Frank Fredrickson 24

26-27

Fredrickson finished 3rd in Hart voting, highest among all centers.

rk player age votes %
1 Herb Gardiner 35 89 24.05
2 Bill Cook 30 85 22.97
3 Frank Fredrickson 31 75 20.27
4 Dick Irvin 34 73 19.73
5 King Clancy 23 48 12.97

Here's the Top 5 scorers from the NHL:

league player pts
NHL Bill Cook 37
NHL Dick Irvin 36
NHL Howie Morenz 32
NHL Frank Fredrickson 31
NHL Babe Dye 30

Summary of Fredrickson's AST Finishes

20-21: 1st AST Center (PCHA) [Possible competition (?): Lalonde, Nighbor, Malone] - 3rd?
21-22: 1st AST Sub (PCHA)
22-23: 1st AST Center (PCHA) [Possible competition (?): Keats(1st AST C WCHL), Nighbor, Adam] -1st?
23-24: 1st AST Center (PCHA) [Possible competition (?): Nighbor (Hart Winner), Morenz, Keats (1st AST C WCHL)] - 2nd?
24-25: 1st AST Sub (WCHL) OR Not on any AST (contradictory sources) - 5th?
25-26: 1st AST Center (WHL) [Possible Competition (?): Keats, Stewart (Hart Winner), Nighbor (3rd in Hart), Morenz (6th in Hart)] -4th?
26-27: 1st in Hart voting among centers -1st?

Something like 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th seems reasonable for a consolidated record, but up to you to crack that puzzle as you see fit.It should be said that once consolidated this is tougher competition than Kopitar at the high end, and I struggle to see how you could make it close no matter how you twist it.

Kopitar's AST record: 3rd, 6th, 6th, 8th

Defensive Game

Kopitar's Selke Record: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 9

Clearly, Kopitar is a better defensive player than Fredrickson.I'm going to post what I have about Fredrickson's defensive game:

Quote:
The big boy stickhandled his way through for lone scores, drew the defense and passed to others for combined goals, backchecked his opponents till they were dizzy and generally played hob with Seattle.
Quote:
Frank Fredrickson was an accomplished defensive forward who, in a Stanley Cup finals of 1924-25, drew the role of checking the great Morenz. He did, too, and the Victoria Cougars triumphed 3 games to 1."

In his great days with the Canadiens, Morenz ws almost impossible to stop. Lester Patrick thought he had the answer in the Stanley Cup final of 1925 when the defending Cup holders went west to engage Lester's Victoria Cougars. Patrick instructed his versatile 29-year-old center, Frank Fredrickson, to hound Morenz every move he made. Fredrickson had long been a star, and eye-catching player with his tall, lean build - an all elbows-and-knees kine of frame - and his long-striding skating style.
Quote:
Fredrickson, however, was a marked man all night and in spite of the fact that he was watched closely and given little chance to bore through he managed to notch two counters and was far more effective in the art of back-checking than his elusive rival.
Quote:
In connection with the defensive weaknesses that the Pirates have usually displayed, a competent hockey man says:

"Don't blame the two defensemen always. Sometimes they have plenty of excuses for apparently leaving Miller unprotected in the nets. When the first line fails to meet a combination assault by the opposing team it drops back in a kind of demoralization on the defensemen. This screens from them the movements of the attacking line, and they have no chance to make plans to meet the assault. Pittsburgh's trouble so far on the defense has been poor checking by the line, and not sloppy work by the defensemen."

Frederickson's experience, and the fact that Milks is again playing a wing, his natural position, should go far toward remedying the faults pointed out by the critic.
Quote:
Frederickson dropped his head one way and lurched the other way, leaving Horner immobilized like a statue.The shot went wide, and the puck skittered back to Pittsburgh territory, where Frederickson recaptured it and launched another attack
This is clearly not enough to compete, but at least Fredrickson has some two-way abilities.

Playoffs

Kopitar had two great runs where he won the cup and finished 1st in playoffs scoring.Fredrickson faced Morenz for the cup and beat him, and had some success in important games prior to his professional career by winning the Allen Cup (and also at the Olympics).Fredrickson performed well in the playoffs in general.

Conclusion

Frank Fredrickson was just a better and more important player than Anze Kopitar in his prime.That's a clear win for Fredrickson.

***

Overall Conclusion

That's a clear win for Montreal as a whole.

***

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Montreal Has the Best #1 Defenseman

It's not exactly rocket science to say that Harvey > Chelios, but I'll show the usual data and make some specific remarks.I should point out that Harvey is arguably the only elite player in this series.

Norris Record (and AST* for pre-Norris era)

Harvey: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2*, 2*, 4.
Chelios: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 8

Hart Record

Harvey: 2, 3, 5, 5, 5
Chelios: 10 (unless you count that single 3rd place vote in 88-89 which was enough to put him at 5th overall lol)

To give a complete picture of how much defensemen received Top 5 Hart votes in each era, here's the list:

Top 5 Hart votings among defensemen up to 2011 (from TDMM)
Quote:
1923-24 2) Sprague Cleghorn 4) Georges Boucher
1924-25 none
1925-26 2) Sprague Cleghorn
1926-27 5) King Clancy
1927-28 3) Eddie Shore 5) Ching Johnson
1928-29 3) Eddie Shore 4) Sylvio Mantha 5) King Clancy
1929-30 2) Lionel Hitchman 4) King Clancy
1930-31 2) Eddie Shore 3) King Clancy 4) Ebbie Goodfellow?
1931-32 2) Ching Johnson 4) Red Dutton (we only have the top 4)
1932-33 1) Eddie Shore (we only have the top 3)
1933-34 2) Lionel Conacher 3) King Clancy 4) Earl Seibert
1934-35 1) Eddie Shore 3) Art Coulter
1935-36 1) Eddie Shore 5) Red Dutton
1936-37 1) Babe Siebert 2) Lionel Conacher 3) Ebbie Goodfellow
1937-38 1) Eddie Shore 3) Babe Siebert
1938-39 5) Eddie Shore
1939-40 1) Ebbie Goodfellow 3) Dit Clapper
1940-41 2) Dit Clapper
1941-42 1) Tom Anderson
1942-43 none
1943-44 1) Babe Pratt 4) Earl Seibert
1944-45 4) Flash Hollett
1945-46 5) Jack Stewart
1946-47 none
1947-48 none
1948-49 none
1949-50 none
1950-51 3) Red Kelly
1951-52 none
1952-53 3) Red Kelly
1953-54 2) Red Kelly
1954-55 5) Doug Harvey
1955-56 4) Red Kelly 5) Doug Harvey
1956-57 5) Doug Harvey
1957-58 3) Doug Harvey
1958-59 none
1959-60 none
1960-61 none
1961-62 2) Doug Harvey
1962-63 none
1963-64 none
1964-65 none
1965-66 none
1966-67 5) Harry Howell
1967-68 4) Bobby Orr
1968-69 3) Bobby Orr
1969-70 1) Bobby Orr 5) Brad Park
1970-71 1) Bobby Orr
1971-72 1) Bobby Orr
1972-73 3) Bobby Orr
1973-74 3) Bobby Orr
1974-75 3) Bobby Orr
1975-76 2) Denis Potvin 5) Brad Park
1976-77 4) Borje Salming 5) Larry Robinson
1977-78 5) Brad Park
1978-79 4) Denis Potvin
1979-80 none
1980-81 none
1981-82 none
1982-83 4) Rod Langway 5) Mark Howe
1983-84 2) Rod Langway 5) Ray Bourque
1984-85 4) Rod Langway 5) Ray Bourque
1985-86 3) Mark Howe 4) Paul Coffey
1986-87 2) Ray Bourque
1987-88 none
1988-89 none
1989-90 2) Ray Bourque
1990-91 4) Ray Bourque
1991-92 none
1992-93 none
1993-94 none
1994-95 4) Paul Coffey
1995-96 none
1996-97 none
1997-98 none
1998-99 none
1999-00 1) Chris Pronger
2000-01 none
2001-02 none
2002-03 none
2003-04 none
2004-05 lockout
2005-06 none
2006-07 none
2007-08 4) Nicklas Lidstrom
2008-09 none
2009-10 none
2010-11 none
The late-80s/early-90s was evidently not a very defensemen-friendly era for Hart votings, but Bourque managed to extract some out of it.It's unclear whether Harvey's era was friendly to Hart votes at all, given that only him and Kelly received it and they're like some sort of oasis between WWII and Bobby Orr.Gadsby's almost complete lack of any Hart recognition could be a sign that it is Harvey's and Kelly's greatness which got them Hart votes, not the friendliness of their era.

Quarterbacking Championship Teams

Doug Harvey quarterbacked the greatest dynasty of all-time and was arguably the cornerstone of that team.He participated in 10 straight SC Finals.

Chelios won the cup in 1986 and 2002 (and 2008 but he was very old by then).He wasn't in his prime yet in 1986 and shared the work with rejuvenated Larry Robinson.He was 40 years old in 2002 and shared the work with prime Nicklas Lidstrom.He played great in both runs.He came close in 1989 in Montreal when they lost against Calgary, leading the team in scoring with Bobby Smith.Reached the Finals again in 92 but got swept by Lemieux' Penguins.Led the playoffs in +/-.

Clearly Chelios was a great playoff performer, but not on Harvey's level.

Controlling the Game

One major factor Harvey brings is his control of the tempo of the game.I want to substantiate it a bit.It's also very obvious as soon as you watch an old game on youtube that Harvey completely controls the game and is crucial to his team imposing its style and dominating the transition.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Shea
Harvey controlled the game like Orr did, but where Orr controlled it by carrying the puck, by acting as a forward, Harvey would slow the pace down, then pick it up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty Pavelich
''And of course Harvey, we always thought that without Harvey on that team we could beat Montreal because he really was controlling the puck back on that blueline. He'd pick it up and take his time, get it out, move it out, get the guy in the open and throw it to him and away they'd go. To me, he was one of the greatest defenceman to ever play.''
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey's Glory Days
He could check, block shots, rush the puck, stickhandle, and pass, but what made him truly unique was the way he could combine his skills to control the pace of the game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Putting a Roof on Winter
Harvey was the Habs’ general, directing play, controlling pace, passing with uncanny accuracy, and busting the head of anyone who got in the way of him or his teammates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Harvey Story
Harvey's brilliant passing set the devastating Montreal attack in motion, and his consummate puck control kept the other team from scoring
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legends of Hockey
He quarterbacked the power play, set the tempo for the transitional game and the counterattack, defended tenaciously, blocked shots and intimidated the opposition by merely stepping on the ice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legends of Hockey: One on One / Pinnacle
Dick Irvin very quickly discovered Harvey's greatest skill – the ability to control the temp of a game. Methodically, Doug carried the puck, at his own speed, surveying the ice landscape before he committed to any play.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey's golden era
Not only was his passing a sight to behold but he could control game as he pleased.
Hfboards posters who saw Harvey played:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Shadows
But overall, Harvey was the best I have ever seen defensively. A wizard. I have little doubt that if you put the best danglers in the game against Harvey one on one that he would pick their pockets and transition the puck up ice. His ability to control the tempo of a game was also unmatched. Its hard to imagine what his +/- would be like, but it certainly would be among the best ever, with his ability to control games 5 on 5.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958
Orr was a better skater and had a better shot. Granted that the slapshot was in its infancy for most of Harvey's career.

Harvey had a better sense of the geometry of the ice especially in the defensive zone. He did not "chase" the way Orr did at times, rather he had the knack of letting the game come to him.
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=711493

to be continued later...


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06-09-2017, 12:59 PM
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Hawkey Town 18
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Sorry everyone I've been very busy this week. Thanks to BB for getting things started with some in depth posts. I will really try to find some time this weekend to at least make comments on those posts and give a general summary of the series and what Chicago can do to win. If not this weekend, for sure early next week.

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06-11-2017, 05:40 AM
  #17
BenchBrawl
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Why Montreal Should Win This Series - or Ingredients Of A Championship Team (Part II)

...continued from last post.

Montreal Has the Best Goalie

I don't feel like dragging this out so I'll be succinct.Frank Brimsek was the best goalie of his generation, most likely got cheated out of multiples 1st AST due to them being tied to the Vezina winner, which in turn was tied with GAA.

Brimsek's AST is 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 but should likely be 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2.

We know this from Brimsek's Hart record against other goalies and from the opinion of his contemporaries who considered him the best goalie in the world (details).

His record is also consecutive if we ignore the war years.

He won two Stanley Cups and played solid hockey when he returned from the war years.The criticism against his playoff record is about the last three years of his career, but there's reasons to think his defense let him down.Even if not, Brimsek is still better than Esposito in the playoffs on his signature runs alone.Esposito was just not victim of bad luck, you have the Lemaire goal in 1971 and the 1973 Finals where Montreal never scored below 4 goals in any game (I'm unaware whether Esposito was taken out of any game).

Brimsek's "adjusted" AST record vs Esposito's:

Brimsek: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2
Esposito:1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3

Esposito was a workhorse la Brodeur and has good longevity, but Brimsek also has good longevity (as a top player anyway) especially considering the two war years he missed in the middle of his prime.

It boils down to Brimsek being the best goalie of his generation and having the signature runs, all the while having a better AST record than Esposito in the regular season.This is not to say Brimsek is Roy in the playoffs, but he got the job done, two times, whereas Esposito screwed up in both the 1971 and 1973 Finals.

Also, Brimsek was apparently a good puck-handler for a goalie:

Quote:
When Brimsek was in his prime I think he was the best stand-up goalie I've ever seen - when he was hot, he was hot! Any goaltender who can come up with five shutouts in a row has to be fantastic. The thing that I remember most about Brimsek was how well he could handle the puck with his stick.
Conclusion

Montreal has the edge in goaltending.

***

Dealing with Chicago's 1-2 Punch

Now that I've made my case that Montreal has superiority in the ingredients usually possessed by championship teams, I will say a word about Chicago's 1-2 punch.

I won't tell Al Arbour how to do his job, but matching up the Harvey-Weber pairing against the Makarov line seems like a good way to go.Makarov is Chicago's most dangerous forward, so in theory Harvey should be out there against him.Harvey has a lot of experience facing strong offensive RWers such as Gordie Howe and Andy Bathgate.

This leaves the Hatcher-Boucher pairing against the Denneny-Apps combo.I think this is a good fit as Denneny was known to score most his goals from up close to the net:

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Montreal Gazette - February 6th, 1934
Despite his high goal average, Denneny hadn't had a hard shot as wing men go, but he was craft itself close in, and most of his tallies were scored in faking the netminder out of position. Cy used his head as well as his stick to compile his great record. Some of his shots that beat goaltenders never left the ice.
Hatcher-Boucher should be a good pairing against this type of player.Having Boucher there also gives Montreal a good transitional game when Harvey isn't on the ice.

The Apps line is quite weak defensively, with the defense coming from their 3rd wheel RWer Alfredsson.Montreal's 1st and 2nd line are much better defensively (than Apps' line), so no matter which one is on the ice in front of Hatcher-Boucher will be able to support them all the while having more room on offense due to the rather average (if not below-average) defensive support coming from the Apps line.

Montreal having a better coach is useful in that I can trust Arbour to get done whatever is necessary.

***

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall Summary

To summarize, I think what's going to make the difference in this series is Montreal having the edge in key categories like center lines, #1 defenseman (or defense as a whole), goaltending, coaching, team chemistry and coach-players synergy.This Montreal team was built for Arbour, and with Harvey on the defense (as the only elite player in this series), Montreal can be expected to impose its style on Chicago.Chicago has the 1-2 punch, but Montreal's top-4 defensemen and strong two-way centers can diminish their impact.Chicago having a goalie with notorious choking jobs in the Finals (not compensated by any prior or subsequent wins) could also be their downfall.

***

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Random Points About Montreal

Just want to make some random points about Montreal which has nothing to do with Chicago or this series per say:

- Their four centers are at least good defensively.
- Their best three players are their best three playoff performers.As they say, your best players must be the best players for you to win.
- Their two goalies are good at handling the puck.
- They have a lot of fast (and very fast) forwards, which makes them a dangerous group in transition.
- They have a very physical and intimidating defense.
- Their centers are good on faceoffs (Fredrickson is unknown).
- They reunited what is arguably the greatest PP pairing in hockey history (Harvey-Geoffrion).
- They have an elite first pairing on the PK (Hatcher-Harvey).
- They reunited Arbour-Trottier.
- Their lineup is similar to the NYI Dynasty coached by Arbour, guaranteeing coach-players synergy.
- Modano and Hatcher are reunited on the 2nd ES unit (though it's possible they will not play together at ES) and 1st PK Unit.
- On the PP, they have a very strong shooter from the point on both units (Geoffrion, Weber).
- Their Top 2 centers are playing in every situations (ES-PP-PK), making them very involved in the games.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-11-2017 at 09:43 PM.
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06-11-2017, 05:47 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
First, I'm wondering if the Top-20s in scoring are available anywhere in a neat format or table.It took me quite some time to get them and I'm sure others are interested in them too.That would be very kind.Data presented in good faith.
See here - http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2215487

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06-11-2017, 08:00 PM
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BenchBrawl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
A million thanks! I somehow never found it.

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06-12-2017, 01:36 PM
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A couple of random comments:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Name VsX7 RVsX Playoffs Note
Denneny [90-96] Small VeryGood fighter
Trottier 93.7 96.2 Great 2way/physical
Apps 92.4 99.6 VeryGood
Geoffrion 89.9 98.9 Great
Alfredsson 82.3 87.9 Good 2way
Elias 78.9 83 Good 2way
I realize this is nitpicking, but it kind of burns my biscuits to see Elias and Alfredsson both callled "good" playoff performers. Elias was the leading playoff scorer of the 2000-2009 decade*, while Alfredsson had one outstanding performance in 2007, after generally being considered a playoff disappointing. On the other hand, I think Alfredsson was easily a better defensive player than Elias, though Elias was also good.

*I realize this decade is somewhat cherrypicked to make Elias look as good as possible, but still: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...rder_by=points

__________________________________________________ ______________

Re: Trottier vs Apps (I don't want to quote the whole thing):

Keep in mind that there is perhaps no player whose scoring finishes were hurt more by WW2 than Syl Apps. In the years leading up to the war, Apps was often called the best player in the world (and sometimes the best player of all-time) in the press.

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06-13-2017, 12:11 AM
  #21
BenchBrawl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
A couple of random comments:

I realize this is nitpicking, but it kind of burns my biscuits to see Elias and Alfredsson both callled "good" playoff performers. Elias was the leading playoff scorer of the 2000-2009 decade*, while Alfredsson had one outstanding performance in 2007, after generally being considered a playoff disappointing. On the other hand, I think Alfredsson was easily a better defensive player than Elias, though Elias was also good.

*I realize this decade is somewhat cherrypicked to make Elias look as good as possible, but still: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...rder_by=points
Those posts were a bit rushed because I wanted to get things started.I shouldn't have used a Bad-Neutral-Good-VeryGood-Great system.I only wanted to give a very quick idea, a bit like glancing at the h-r page in 2 seconds.Some players in the same category could still have a gap between them.

But sure, Elias is better than Alfredsson in the playoffs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe
Re: Trottier vs Apps (I don't want to quote the whole thing):

Keep in mind that there is perhaps no player whose scoring finishes were hurt more by WW2 than Syl Apps. In the years leading up to the war, Apps was often called the best player in the world (and sometimes the best player of all-time) in the press.
I agree he would have more finishes if he played those two extra years, but I don't think it would boost his VsX7 or replacement-score or PPGVsX scores all that much.In any case I don't think it changes the conclusion that Trottier is better than Apps.

Edit: I was wrong about VsX7, I misunderstood what you meant because I was unaware that Apps missed time due to the war in non-war years.


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06-13-2017, 08:41 PM
  #22
Hawkey Town 18
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Sorry for the late start from my side, my boss has been out of town and I've been extremely busy. Thanks to BB for posting a lot of good info so far. Here's some comments...

Goalies (can you believe Brimsek is actually the worst goalie Chicago has faced thus far?...Hasek-Sawchuk/Plante/Brimsek!)

No argument from me that Brimsek has the edge over Esposito. You posted Contrarion Goaltender's table and what he said about Brimsek. Here's what he said about Esposito...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianGoaltender View Post
I think Tony Esposito's playoff failures are generally overblown. He also has a very strong regular season record, ranking #1 all-time among goalies in regular season GVT. That is in part because of the lack of parity in the 1970s, but in terms of career regular season value Esposito certainly rivals anybody in this group.

Also just want to make one point...if you're analyzing this series and you truly believe there is a distinct difference between regular season goaltending and playoff goaltending and you think Tony Esposito just isn't a good playoff goaltender (which I don't agree with), then you also have to give credit to Chicago's backup, Hap Holmes, for being the best money goaltender of his generation. If you're going to discount Esposito then you have to also credit Holmes, and we know Quenneville has no reservations about going to his backup in the playoffs.


Defense

I am for the most part in agreement with BB's player by player analysis, Montreal has the edge in the 1st pair because Harvey>Chelios, and the rest of the personnel is fairly even. I do not think Weber is above Conacher, I have them even.

I'm fine with Boucher slightly over Cameron, but I think Hitchman is slightly over Hatcher. He peaked higher and there's a ton about him being uber-elite defensively.

Quote:
It has two totally different but splended defense men in Shore and Hitchman.

"Shore is the most sensational player in hockey today. He is not only a stalwart on defense but he is a fine scorer. Hitchman is the hardest man to get around, the greatest checker and the greatest blocker in the game."
Quote:
He calls Hitchman and Ching Johnson the best defensive defensemen of his day. Nels Stewart on Hitchman: "I'd rather carry a puck through a picket fence than try to get past Hitchman". He says that "Johnson broke every rule in the book, using his tremendous strength to hold, maul, and smear up opposing plays." and that he always got away with it. He goes on to say that he never took advantage of his strength in a mean way but "if he did not break every hockey law he at least bent them all considerably".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider
Eddie Shore was not even regarded as the best defensive player of his era. Although he was known as a good offensive player, even during his absolute peak (1933), contemporaries thought that there were several other defensemen in the league who were superior defensively (ie King Clancy, Lionel Hitchman, Ching Johnson). Source: Globe & Mail, April 20, 1933
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Frederickson
"To me, Shore was a country boy who had made good; he was a good skater and puck carrier but was not an exceptional defenseman like his teammate Lionel Hitchman who was better because he could get them coming and going."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultimate Hockey
Hitchman and Shore formed the backbone of mighty Boston teams from the late 1920's to early 1930's. They became one of the most formidable defense pairing ever. Hitchman was the reliable, responsible defender. While not incapable of leading the odd rush, he knew his role and played it well.

Hitchman was a durable warrior and one of the game's steadiest defensive forces. The Boston mainstay was a top-notch hitter who always played it clean.

Again, I agree with BB's general conclusion...Defense is an advantage for Montreal, largely because of Harvey.


Forwards
1st Lines
I will agree that Montreal's top line is a better two-way line that Chicago's top line, but I think Chicago does have an edge offensively, and I think Syl Apps' offensive ability is being underrated here. TDMM touched on this, Syl Apps' offensive resume really gets hurt by WWII. His replacement score does not accurately reflect his value because he was not missing games due to injury, he was missing them due to War, and playing so well in some of those partial seasons that he was still finishing runner-up for the Hart. His per game Vs.X was 15th all time, above guys like Richard, Morenz, Malkin, Bossy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Name VsX7 RVsX Playoffs Note
Denneny [90-96] Small VeryGood fighter
Trottier 93.7 96.2 Great 2way/physical
Apps 92.4 99.6 VeryGood
Geoffrion 89.9 98.9 Great
Alfredsson 82.3 87.9 Good 2way
Elias 78.9 83 Good 2way

Also just a minor point that shouldn't make a ton of difference at all, but I just didn't understand it:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BB
The Denneny-Apps combo is strong offensively but brings little else except for Denneny's pugilism (which would undoubtedbly come against one of Montreal's defensemen, if it comes to that).
Why would Denneny only fight Montreal's Dmen? Forwards fight other forwards ALL the time.


I'm still in agreement with BB that there is an edge to Montreal because of their two-way play, but I do think the lines are closer than was being portrayed because of Chicago's offensive advantage.


2nd Lines
Agree that this is a large advantage for Chicago, which should not be surprising, Chicago is set up to have a 1-2 punch as has been discussed in previous series.

One thing I would like to touch on is Datsyuk vs. Modano. BB concedes the defensive edge to Datsyuk, which is obvious, but mentions that their offensive numbers are close. First Datsyuk's are slightly ahead as can be seen my BB's analysis, but second, remember that Datsyuk was a strong/elite two-way player when putting up all of his numbers, while some of Modano's best offensive years came before he learned to be a two-way guy. In other words, if you're giving Modano credit for his defense you need to somewhat discount his offense, especially when you're talking about longevity of offense. IMO when factoring in the above Datsyuk is clearly the better player of the two.


3rd Lines
I agree with BB that Montreal is better offensively and Chicago better defensively, but I don't think it's anything that Chicago can't overcome. We don't have numbers for Frederickson who is very likely Montreal's best ES scorer, but looking at Amonte vs. Kopitar, if you divide by 7 to get the yearly score, you're only talking about a difference of about 5 percentage points over an entire season, which is less than 5 points in today's NHL. To me, that is worth well worth the HUGE advantage from Kopitar defensively.

Something also to consider is that these 3rd lines will very often not be facing each other and instead find themselves out against one of their opponent's scoring lines, which are superior. As BB said, every player on Chicago's 3rd line is good defensively (and Kopitar is very good), so they will be better suited to handle a scoring line.

4th Lines
Noted that BB did not analyze the 4th lines, and I have to think at least part of the reason is because Montreal's 4th line is primarily filled with guys drafted for their special teams roles that will be in trouble when out against one of Chicago's top 3 lines. Montreal's coach, Al Arbour, is also a fan of rolling 4 lines, so having a 4th line like this one does not play into the strategy he likes to employ, Arbour will have to be much more selective and careful than he is used to when it comes to playing his 4th line.

Chicago's 4th line, on the other hand, is full of strong defensive players that bring physical games. They're not out there to score, but they will pound the other team physically while giving Chicago's other forwards a chance to rest without being a liability.


Coaching
Agree this is an advantage for Montreal, Arbour is in the top tier and Q is in the next tier, so the advantage isn't large.

One thing I'd like to respond to is the following quote from BB:
Quote:
I'd like to hear more about how the Shamrocks ressembles the Blackhawks that Quenneville coached.One seems to be missing is the great #1 defenseman that Quenneville had with Duncan Keith.
Using the above logic Arbour doesn't have an elite #1 Center or and elite goal scoring RWer (he obviously does have the elite Dman in Harvey). However, BB seems to be implying that Q won with let's say a top 3 Dman in the league and Chelios is only about #10 in this draft, well the same goes for Trottier when looking at centers.

One thing Q does have similar to his real-life teams is a 1-2 punch in his scoring lines. For the most part Q plays Toews and Kane on separate lines, while putting them together very selectively when the team really needs a spark or is in a desperate situation. Also, in real life one of those 2 lines has been a two-way line used with his 3rd line for matchups and the other one primarily a offense focused line. He has the same thing here with the Datsyuk and Apps lines respectively. Q also likes a defensively responsible 4th line and tends to give his depth players the most PK minutes (Toews/Hossa are generally 2nd unit), which is reflected here.



This is all for now, hopefully I will be able to post more tomorrow.


Last edited by Hawkey Town 18: 06-14-2017 at 08:26 AM.
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06-14-2017, 12:42 AM
  #23
BenchBrawl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Also just want to make one point...if you're analyzing this series and you truly believe there is a distinct difference between regular season goaltending and playoff goaltending and you think Tony Esposito just isn't a good playoff goaltender (which I don't agree with), then you also have to give credit to Chicago's backup, Hap Holmes, for being the best money goaltender of his generation. If you're going to discount Esposito then you have to also credit Holmes, and we know Quenneville has no reservations about going to his backup in the playoffs.
This is true, but while putting your back-up goalie in the middle of the Finals can sometimes work, I think we can all agree that it's not ideal, and that the very act of doing this means you already lost a game.

Also, it's not that I think Esposito is not a good playoff goalie, but he has shown tendency to crumble under the pressure in the Finals, and that should be taken into account.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18
1st Lines
I will agree that Montreal's top line is a better two-way line that Chicago's top line, but I think Chicago does have an edge offensively, and I think Syl Apps' offensive ability is being underrated here. TDMM touched on this, Syl Apps' offensive resume really gets hurt by WWII. His replacement score does not accurately reflect his value because he was not missing games due to injury, he was missing them due to War, and playing so well in some of those partial seasons that he was still finishing runner-up for the Hart. His per game Vs.X was 15th all time, above guys like Richard, Morenz, Malkin, Bossy.
I take it you mean he lost time in non-war years due to the war.I honestly was not sure about it, but I've read TDMM's post now in your bio.I've known about Apps PPGVsX score for more than a year, because I was the one who created it.It did surprise me at the time.Geoffrion's PPGVsX is also very high by the way, at 1.01 vs. 1.02 for Apps.I understand Geoffrion cannot be credited this PPG score in the same way as Apps due to the reason he missed the games, but it's still his per-game ability:

RankPlayerPPG
1 Wayne Gretzky 1.56
2 Mario Lemieux 1.38
3 Phil Esposito 1.31
4 Gordie Howe 1.22
5 Bobby Orr 1.2
6 Sidney Crosby 1.1
7 Guy Lafleur 1.09
8 Jaromir Jagr 1.09
9 Bobby Hull 1.08
10 Stan Mikita 1.07
11 Jean Beliveau 1.05
12 Ted Lindsay 1.05
13 Marcel Dionne 1.04
14 Bill Cowley 1.03
15 Syl Apps Sr 1.02
16 Bernie Geoffrion 1.01

True that Apps' ability is underrated but while he didn't benefit from the extra weak competiton of the war years, his competition was not good at all in the late-30s and early-40s.It was a very weak era as far as I'm concerned.So because of that, saying Apps is at something like 102 overrates him IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18
Why would Denneny only fight Montreal's Dmen? Forwards fight other forwards ALL the time.
Because Montreal's forwards are not pugilists, therefore it's more likely that it's one of the big defenseman that would fight Denneny.Someone like Hatcher is most probable, especially since we can expect some fight close to the net between those two.That's the only reason why I said this, not because I don't believe forwards can fight forwards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18
2nd Lines

One thing I would like to touch on is Datsyuk vs. Modano. BB concedes the defensive edge to Datsyuk, which is obvious, but mentions that their offensive numbers are close. First Datsyuk's are slightly ahead as can be seen my BB's analysis, but second, remember that Datsyuk was a strong/elite two-way player when putting up all of his numbers, while some of Modano's best offensive years came before he learned to be a two-way guy. In other words, if you're giving Modano credit for his defense you need to somewhat discount his offense, especially when you're talking about longevity of offense. IMO when factoring in the above Datsyuk is clearly the better player of the two.
Except that this is just not true.Well it's true, if 1/7 of his best seasons qualifies as "some".

Modano received his first high Selke finish (4th) in 1996-1997.Here's his best seven VsX scores (I used the benchmarks posted in the main VsX thread, not sure if they changed):

87.5, 86.2, 85.6, 81.7, 77.5, 76.1, 75.7

Here's the years in which each occured respectively:

2001, 2000, 2002, 2003, 1994, 1997, 1999

So basically, only his 77.5 score in 1994 qualifies as pre-defensive Modano.

But let's look at Datsyuk.His first high Selke finish (1st) occured in 2007-2008.Here's his best seven VsX scores:

91.5, 88.2, 86, 82.1, 78.2, 76.3, 75.6

The years in which these occured respectively:

2008, 2009, 2013, 2006, 2004, 2007, 2015

So it is Datsyuk who has the biggest proportion of his best offensive seasons before he was getting high Selke consideration, not Modano.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18
3rd Lines
I agree with BB that Montreal is better offensively and Chicago better defensively, but I don't think it's anything that Chicago can't overcome. We don't have numbers for Frederickson who is very likely Montreal's best ES scorer, but looking at Amonte vs. Kopitar, if you divide by 7 to get the yearly score, you're only talking about a difference of about 5 percentage points over an entire season, which is less than 5 points in today's NHL. To me, that is worth well worth the HUGE advantage from Kopitar defensively.

Something also to consider is that these 3rd lines will very often not be facing each other and instead find themselves out against one of their opponent's scoring lines, which are superior. As BB said, every player on Chicago's 3rd line is good defensively (and Kopitar is very good), so they will be better suited to handle a scoring line.
Just like Makarov singlehandedly gives Chicago the advantage on the 2nd line (not saying Datsyuk doesn't play a role, but even if you also had Modano, Makarov alone would give a big edge), I think what I've shown about Fredrickson's reconstructed AST record makes him so far ahead of anyone on the 3rd line that he singlehandedly makes my 3rd line better.

Defensive play alone cannot overcome that.

But Fredrickson doesn't have to singlehandedly make it better, because Benn is the second best offensive guy in term of peak and star power, and his ESVsX isn't bad.It's hard to dominate in ESVsX, but I do believe peak and star power should be the tiebreakers.

Seriously, Fredrickson is much, much better than anyone here.I don't see any reason why Fredrickson shouldn't be ranked ahead of a guy like Denis Savard for example.Fredrickson was very highly regarded for 7 years straight.The more I look into him the more I wonder if he's not my 2nd best center, and that's not a knock on Modano (I suspect Modano would still come out on top , but not by as much as canon would make us believe).If we give Apps a pass for his unfortunate circumstances, why not give Fredrickson a pass for what he could have done before he turned pro? Fredrickson was hurt by WWI, and possibly had to overcome some amount of racism in Manitoba.

----------------------------

Also, completely irrelevent, and I'm not sure if it's true, but I just found out Fredrickson was good friend with Albert Einstein, walking to Princeton with him everyday when he was coaching there.A passion for the violin seems to be the reason for their friendship among other things.

Edit: Appears to be true but I have no direct newspaper source:

Quote:
At Princeton one of the people he befriended was Albert Einstein. Fredrickson regularly walked to work with the great man, who, he said, was charming and unassuming. The one thing they had in common, the Princeton coach said, was that they both played the violin. Frank Fredrickson was a hall-of-fame kind of guy. He was inducted in the Hockey Hall of Fame in 1958, and he is also a member of the Manitoba Sports Hall of Fame (1980), the UBC Sports Hall of Fame (1983), and the Canadian Olympic Hall of Fame (2006).
https://sites.google.com/site/albert...playingviolin/

http://www.pressreader.com/canada/wi...82286725956891

https://books.google.ca/books?id=q51XmP5SvJYC&pg

https://www.flickr.com/photos/bigadore/5347338582

Forgive me for this detour, I thought it was noteworthy.

----------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town
4th Lines
Noted that BB did not analyze the 4th lines, and I have to think at least part of the reason is because Montreal's 4th line is primarily filled with guys drafted for their special teams roles that will be in trouble when out against one of Chicago's top 3 lines. Montreal's coach, Al Arbour, is also a fan of rolling 4 lines, so having a 4th line like this one does not play into the strategy he likes to employ, Arbour will have to be much more selective and careful than he is used to when it comes to playing his 4th line.

Chicago's 4th line, on the other hand, is full of strong defensive players that bring physical games. They're not out there to score, but they will pound the other team physically while giving Chicago's other forwards a chance to rest without being a liability.
For Arbour's style I relied on Sturminator's opinion.The NYI dynasty was the team of his youth and FWIW he told me rolling the three lines was a good way to go with Arbour.I trust his judgement on that issue.I certainly don't think rolling 3 lines vs. rolling 4 lines will cause a problem for Arbour.The 4th line icetime is also very limited:

Forward Minutes
PlayerES PP PK Total
Trottier 14 4 3 21
Modano 13 3 4 20
Geoffrion 14 5* 0 19
Fredrickson 13 4 0 17
Elias 14 3 0 17
Thompson 13 3 0 16
Anderson 13 0 0 13
Benn 13 0 0 13
Amonte 13 0 0 13
Toppazzini 6 0 4 10
Andreychuk 6 4 0 10
Sheppard 6 0 3 9
TOTAL 138 26* 14 178*

Their very low icetime is why I didn't bother to compare them, but also because life is short.I'm not hidden the fact that Montreal's 4th line are special unit specialists.Also let's not exaggerate, Montreal's 4th line can still play an ES shift here and there.Their ESVsX numbers are quite good:

Andreychuk: 473
Sheppard: 405
Toppazzini: 429

Nesterenko: 389
Marcotte: 394

I don't have the number for Sutter.And it's not like Montreal's line is weak defensively, Sheppard and Toppazzini are quite good.

Also, Montreal doesn't need it's 4th line for defensive play, as it has strong two-way abilities in their Top-6.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18
Using the above logic Arbour doesn't have an elite #1 Center or and elite goal scoring RWer (he obviously does have the elite Dman in Harvey). However, BB seems to be implying that Q won with let's say a top 3 Dman in the league and Chelios is only about #10 in this draft, well the same goes for Trottier when looking at centers.
You're right, so I take that specific point back.

Despite all of the above, I still don't think the synergy is as strong between Quenneville-Chicago than it is between Arbour-Montreal (which doesn't imply I think the Quenneville-Chicago synergy is bad).


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 06-14-2017 at 08:07 AM.
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06-14-2017, 10:01 AM
  #24
Hawkey Town 18
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Except that this is just not true.Well it's true, if 1/7 of his best seasons qualifies as "some".

Modano received his first high Selke finish (4th) in 1996-1997.Here's his best seven VsX scores (I used the benchmarks posted in the main VsX thread, not sure if they changed):

87.5, 86.2, 85.6, 81.7, 77.5, 76.1, 75.7

Here's the years in which each occured respectively:

2001, 2000, 2002, 2003, 1994, 1997, 1999

So basically, only his 77.5 score in 1994 qualifies as pre-defensive Modano.

But let's look at Datsyuk.His first high Selke finish (1st) occured in 2007-2008.Here's his best seven VsX scores:

91.5, 88.2, 86, 82.1, 78.2, 76.3, 75.6

The years in which these occured respectively:

2008, 2009, 2013, 2006, 2004, 2007, 2015

So it is Datsyuk who has the biggest proportion of his best offensive seasons before he was getting high Selke consideration, not Modano.
You are correct on Modano, this is why I said "especially when considering offensive longevity" perhaps I should have been more clear.

I cannot agree with your take on Datsyuk, he is not close to the same situation Modano was. Modano was an offense-only player early in his career, and then made a sudden change under Ken Hitchcock (Modano's first Selke consideration was Hitchcock's first full season as coach). Datsyuk was never an offense-only player, always good defensively and developed into great/elite. Also, I find it strange you are not counting 2007 above as Datsyuk had a 20th place Selke finish, but you are counting Modano's 2000 where he finished 18th.



Quote:
Just like Makarov singlehandedly gives Chicago the advantage on the 2nd line (not saying Datsyuk doesn't play a role, but even if you also had Modano, Makarov alone would give a big edge), I think what I've shown about Fredrickson's reconstructed AST record makes him so far ahead of anyone on the 3rd line that he singlehandedly makes my 3rd line better.

Defensive play alone cannot overcome that.

But Fredrickson doesn't have to singlehandedly make it better, because Benn is the second best offensive guy in term of peak and star power, and his ESVsX isn't bad.It's hard to dominate in ESVsX, but I do believe peak and star power should be the tiebreakers.

Seriously, Fredrickson is much, much better than anyone here.I don't see any reason why Fredrickson shouldn't be ranked ahead of a guy like Denis Savard for example. Fredrickson was very highly regarded for 7 years straight.The more I look into him the more I wonder if he's not my 2nd best center, and that's not a knock on Modano (I suspect Modano would still come out on top , but not by as much as canon would make us believe).If we give Apps a pass for his unfortunate circumstances, why not give Fredrickson a pass for what he could have done before he turned pro? Fredrickson was hurt by WWI, and possibly had to overcome some amount of racism in Manitoba.
You've done good work trying to come up with an AS record for Fredrickson, but it is an inexact science, and surely you cannot directly compare AS team finishes from back then to the much deeper league of today. I don't think it would be unfair to say a 5th/6th AS finish today is equivalent to a 3rd back then, especially at Center.

That being said, I agree Fredrickson is the best player on either 3rd line, but he's not better than either Chicago's top 2 centers, so my point stands that Chicago's 3rd line is better equipped to face its opponent's scoring lines.



Quote:
For Arbour's style I relied on Sturminator's opinion.The NYI dynasty was the team of his youth and FWIW he told me rolling the three lines was a good way to go with Arbour.I trust his judgement on that issue.I certainly don't think rolling 3 lines vs. rolling 4 lines will cause a problem for Arbour.The 4th line icetime is also very limited:
Sturm certainly has more knowledge of the 80's Islanders than I do, so I'm not saying he is wrong, I just always thought that one of the signatures of that dynasty was their great depth and that they just kept rolling 4 solid lines at you. Maybe someone else can weigh in here?

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06-14-2017, 10:37 AM
  #25
seventieslord
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This is just an outstanding series. I love it when there's engaging back and forth that I can just sit back and read.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Sturm certainly has more knowledge of the 80's Islanders than I do, so I'm not saying he is wrong, I just always thought that one of the signatures of that dynasty was their great depth and that they just kept rolling 4 solid lines at you. Maybe someone else can weigh in here?
The estimated TOI sheet really seems to confirm this. From 1978-1984, every season when I sort the forwards by ESTOI, the 10th-12th highest guys are always 9-12 minutes, only a minute behind the apparent 3rd liners, who were only a minute behind the apparent 2nd liners. I'm generalizing, as there were slight differences from year to year, but most of the time their 10th and 11th highest ESTOI forwards were about 11 minutes followed by a guy in the 9.5-10 range. So Arbour certainly used his least-used forwards more than most coaches did. Shero was the same way.

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