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IF Gaborik is Healthy for 80 games...How Many will he score under an Offensive System

View Poll Results: HEALTHY GABORIK..in OFFENSE FIRST SYSTEM....how many goals?
20-30 goals 4 1.63%
31-40 goals 51 20.73%
41-50 goals 144 58.54%
51-60+ goals 47 19.11%
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Old
07-29-2009, 04:00 PM
  #101
turcotte8
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No, I would say it's specualtion based on wishing and hoping that Gaborik stays healthy and that if he stays healthy the powerplay improves, and that Torts is the god that some here tell me he is. None of those things are a definite by any stretch.

This notion that Tortorella is great is based upon his winning a Cup with a pretty talented group of players. When he lost that talent he accomplished as much as Renney did. Is Laviolette a great coach? Is every coach that wins a great coach? Or is it that the talent pool was outstanding and a good mix? I believe it's the latter. By a landslide.

If it were so easy to identify good coaches, why are they constantly getting fired? Even the so-called great ones.

Who here thinks it was the coaching of the Penguins that brought them the Cup last year because I ain't buying it.

This other notion that they will be better offensively without going down somewhat defensively is based on what exactly? If you open up you leave yourself more vulnerable unless your defensemen and team commitment is outstanding. Their talent pool on defense is about average. It might become more but it's not.

I understand that fans are incredibly optimistic before a season starts but when I look at their top 9 forwards, I see an awful lot of holes, especially offensively, unless Dubinsky becomes a legit 1st line center. Banking on that is at least quite a stretch at the moment.

This team is insanely dependent on an injury prone player not getting hurt. I know I'm in the minority but I think that is a near suicidal tactic. The argument that Sather had no choice is stupid. He's had lots of choices and always seems to pick the wrong prizes.

Play whatever system you want. Guys can either score goals or they can't. I don't care what system they are playing.
I'm not saying Torts is a God but he's certainly better than Renney.

Of course you need talent to win, it doesn't matter who the coach is if you don't have talent. But a good coach can bring the best out of his players, he did it with Lecavalier who has admited so himself.

A bad coach can hamper their players, using your example of the Pens. Therian was holding them back , Bylsma let them play and they won. Of course we don't have anywhere near the talent of those players and don't think any fan is expecting the cup this year.

It does suck that we have to hold our breath when ever Gaborik is on the ice due to his past but there is nothing we can do about that now. So we have to go foward with the assumption the surgery fixed his problem and hope he can stay healthy.

No point in complaing now of what could have been done. What's done is done and Sather is here for life. The only options we have are either be optimistic and hope for the best or stop watching.

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07-29-2009, 07:16 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by FLYLine24 View Post
He was in a Defense, Defense, Defense system for the past few years..and still managed to score a boat load of goals...


But now.hes playing in a exclusive OFFENSIVE system....if he plays 80 games..how many do you think he can score?


My opinion...easily 60. And I say again..EASILY 60. Hell i will say right now..ill bump this baby up next April if he played 70+ games..wrong or not..i wont be though (if he plays that much).


BTW just for reference..he was averaging 60+ goals last season in that defensive system when he came back from injury...
Didn't you spend the whole spring calling this guy "Glassman?"

I understand what your saying about his production (If he's healthy I see 35 goals) but "easily 60?" Not "if everything breaks right power play, Dubinskys growth, chemistry with linemates, in addition to health" but easily 60?

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07-29-2009, 07:18 PM
  #103
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Didn't you spend the whole spring calling this guy "Glassman?"

I understand what your saying about his production (If he's healthy I see 35 goals) but "easily 60?" Not "if everything breaks right power play, Dubinskys growth, chemistry with linemates, in addition to health" but easily 60?
He is the glassman. Thats not the point of the thread. Im not predicting he will play 82 games. The point of the thread is, as the title states, "IF Gaborik is healthy for 80 games...how many goals will he score"

His scoring since the lockout equals a ratio of 49 goals a season (if healthy)...so is it really a stretch to think he can't hit 60 playing healthy? Hell, he was a man with a mission after he returned from the surgery, if he kept that pace up for an entire season (82 games), he would have cracked 70 goals.

35 goals? Uh...ok...you do realize hes one of the best goal scorers in the league...right?

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07-29-2009, 07:59 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by FLYLine24 View Post
He is the glassman. Thats not the point of the thread. Im not predicting he will play 82 games. The point of the thread is, as the title states, "IF Gaborik is healthy for 80 games...how many goals will he score"

His scoring since the lockout equals a ratio of 49 goals a season (if healthy)...so is it really a stretch to think he can't hit 60 playing healthy? Hell, he was a man with a mission after he returned from the surgery, if he kept that pace up for an entire season (82 games), he would have cracked 70 goals.

35 goals? Uh...ok...you do realize hes one of the best goal scorers in the league...right?
out of curiosity, how many games would guess he will play, and how many goals in those games?

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07-29-2009, 08:01 PM
  #105
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I'm not saying Torts is a God but he's certainly better than Renney.
Isn't is a tad early to be saying this?

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07-29-2009, 08:06 PM
  #106
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I'm not saying this year necessarily, but I'd be surprised to see Gaborik not have a 50-goal season if he has 3 to 5 healthy years. 50 goal seasons have as much to do with what's happening around a player as they do with the player themselves.

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07-29-2009, 08:08 PM
  #107
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Isn't is a tad early to be saying this?
Nope

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07-29-2009, 08:09 PM
  #108
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I think he will score about 47. Like someone else mentioned before, MSG really isn't the easiest place to play. Even more so if it is your first season on a new contract. If he had an elite center, I would say he could score 55, but that might be pushing it.

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07-29-2009, 08:09 PM
  #109
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Nope
It was a rhetorical question.

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07-29-2009, 08:13 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
Isn't is a tad early to be saying this?
Yep.

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07-29-2009, 08:16 PM
  #111
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By the way, ESPN's "Puck Prospectus" on the Rangers, which I'd assume is some kind of season preview, has a headline of:

"Signs point to regression for Gaborik
The Blueshirts' big FA acquisition is trending down, but Doobie could do quite well"

I can't read the article because I'm not an insider, but what signs are they referring to? Injury problems from last year make the most sense, but that's not really a down trend so much as a continuation. If anything, the intention of his surgery was to fix the problem which should make him on the upswing. Anyone got a summary of what point ESPN was trying to make?

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07-29-2009, 08:18 PM
  #112
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38 is my guess

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07-29-2009, 08:19 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by FLYLine24 View Post
Your not trying to compare Gomez with Gaborik are you?
I'm not comparing their talent. Obviously Gaborik is a far better player than Gomez. I just think the situations are a little bit similar.

When we signed Gomez a lot of people were predicting career highs for him because he was finally "escaping" from the "stifling" Devils environment. I didn't buy into that thinking with Gomez and I don't buy into it with Gaborik.

A 90 point guy is going to be a 90 point guy no matter what team he plays on. Maybe there are certain extraordinary situations where a player's numbers are impacted by the team and situation they play in but generally I believe guys put up the numbers that they are capable of putting up.

If Gaborik sets career highs it won't be because of Torts and the Rangers. It will be because he stayed healthy the entire season.

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07-29-2009, 08:33 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by turcotte8 View Post
Nope
He may have more previous success than Tom, but you have absolutely no idea how his tenure here will play out. To state unequivocally that he's better than Renney RIGHT NOW is foolish.

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07-29-2009, 08:39 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
By the way, ESPN's "Puck Prospectus" on the Rangers, which I'd assume is some kind of season preview, has a headline of:

"Signs point to regression for Gaborik
The Blueshirts' big FA acquisition is trending down, but Doobie could do quite well"

I can't read the article because I'm not an insider, but what signs are they referring to? Injury problems from last year make the most sense, but that's not really a down trend so much as a continuation. If anything, the intention of his surgery was to fix the problem which should make him on the upswing. Anyone got a summary of what point ESPN was trying to make?
It's ESPN, enough said.

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07-29-2009, 08:46 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by FLYLine24 View Post
He is the glassman. Thats not the point of the thread. Im not predicting he will play 82 games. The point of the thread is, as the title states, "IF Gaborik is healthy for 80 games...how many goals will he score"

His scoring since the lockout equals a ratio of 49 goals a season (if healthy)...so is it really a stretch to think he can't hit 60 playing healthy? Hell, he was a man with a mission after he returned from the surgery, if he kept that pace up for an entire season (82 games), he would have cracked 70 goals.

35 goals? Uh...ok...you do realize hes one of the best goal scorers in the league...right?
I understand the point of the thread IF...great.....coming from the guy who called him "Glassman" it's "surprising" that you think he is capable of scoring 60 goals. Did you predict him being a 60 goal scorer for the two months you spent bashing Gaborik?

Should I quote some of your two month old posts about the guy?

You understand that 35 goals is more realistic then 60 goals. Averages are great but the games still need to be played. Gaborik is more or less a one man show on offense here. System or not. (and the offensive system argument is overated...it isn't like the Wild didn't shoot the puck during Glassmans time in Minny...right?) 60 goals isn't realistic...How many 60 goal scorers has the league had since 2000?

I don't think stats tell the whole story with Gaborik....He is a great player but he can't stay healthy....it's as if he is made of glass...right? You realize this is the same player that missed two months getting injured playing hackey sack.

The question I ask is Can Gaborik stay healthy for 80 games?

I just want to clarify that I'm not trying to insult you, I just don't get how you can go from calling the guy "Glassman" one month to predicting 60 goals the next....


Last edited by Son of Steinbrenner: 07-29-2009 at 09:14 PM.
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07-29-2009, 08:48 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
By the way, ESPN's "Puck Prospectus" on the Rangers, which I'd assume is some kind of season preview, has a headline of:

"Signs point to regression for Gaborik
The Blueshirts' big FA acquisition is trending down, but Doobie could do quite well"

I can't read the article because I'm not an insider, but what signs are they referring to? Injury problems from last year make the most sense, but that's not really a down trend so much as a continuation. If anything, the intention of his surgery was to fix the problem which should make him on the upswing. Anyone got a summary of what point ESPN was trying to make?
Yeah, someone made a thread on this a week or so back. It's ESPN debuting their new formula to predict future performance based on historical data, basically hockey's craptastic version of PECOTA in baseball. They call it "VUKOTA". I have no idea what it stands for or portends to predict, really, but they say that VUKOTA doesn't like his injury history.

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07-29-2009, 08:48 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by nyr2k2 View Post
He may have more previous success than Tom, but you have absolutely no idea how his tenure here will play out. To state unequivocally that he's better than Renney RIGHT NOW is foolish.
No it isn't. Tortorella today and any day will always be a better coach than Renney.

So if the Islanders fired their coach and hired Mike Keenan it would be foolish to say Keenan is better than Gordon? And if Keenan's Islanders had a worse record in the first year Keenan coached them, Scott Gordon suddenly becomes better than Keenan?

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07-29-2009, 08:51 PM
  #119
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I agree completely with OP. The guy is on his own level with Ovechkin and Kovalchuk, and I think he might be a step ahead of them. Nobody else in the league comes close.

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07-29-2009, 08:53 PM
  #120
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If he's healthy, then something in the low 40's in goals and 85 points.

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07-29-2009, 08:54 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by turcotte8 View Post
No it isn't. Tortorella today and any day will always be a better coach than Renney.

So if the Islanders fired their coach and hired Mike Keenan it would be foolish to say Keenan is better than Gordon? And if Keenan's Islanders had a worse record in the first year Keenan coached them, Scott Gordon suddenly becomes better than Keenan?
Gordon has had no success to speak of. Isn't it fair to say that before you say that Torts is better than Renney that maybe Torts should win a playoff series? Or at least not cost his team one?

The fact is Torts replaces a guy who was the only coach in the East to make the playoffs the first three seasons after the lockout. Not even Torts did that.

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07-29-2009, 08:56 PM
  #122
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Gordon has had no success to speak of.
Niether has Renney. Unless you count 2nd round elimations as success.

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07-29-2009, 08:59 PM
  #123
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Niether has Renney. Unless you count 2nd round elimations as success.
It's more than Torts has done here.

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07-29-2009, 09:00 PM
  #124
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No it isn't. Tortorella today and any day will always be a better coach than Renney.

So if the Islanders fired their coach and hired Mike Keenan it would be foolish to say Keenan is better than Gordon? And if Keenan's Islanders had a worse record in the first year Keenan coached them, Scott Gordon suddenly becomes better than Keenan?
Because he won a Stanley Cup with a very talented team 6 years ago, and followed it by being eliminated the next two years in the first round and then missed the playoffs in the third year? Renney's regular season record is quite a bit better than Tortorella's, and his postseason record is comparable as well. Obviously, Tortorella won a Cup, something Renney hasn't done--but you're making Renney out to be Ron Low and Tortorella out to be Scotty Bowman.

Hey, I watched when the NFL's Washington Redskins brought back Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs, who proceeded to suck royally. Gibbs had a ton of past success, but couldn't replicate it. I'd have been comfortable saying that probably 20 of the coaches in the NFL at THAT TIME were better than Gibbs.

You've got John Tortorella up on this pedestal and I don't know why.

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07-29-2009, 09:02 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
It's more than Torts has done here.
That's kind of a weird criteria you're putting up. Comparing a coach who had almost 4 full years, and who had a chance before each year to give input on the players his GM got so that they could fit into a team he wanted, to a coach who had 20 games and a team that he had no input in choosing.

I get the point you're trying to make, but I think you need to pick a better way to express it.

How well Tortorella does is unknown at this point. He's had his ups and downs in the league, so there's no absolute given.

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