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every possible scenario

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04-02-2004, 01:56 AM
  #1
jadeddog
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every possible scenario

ok well here is every possible scenario that gets the oilers into the playoffs, and what the team finishes with in brackets

1) oilers win (91), blues beat nashville, blues beat/lose/tie minnesota (91+), nashville lose to avs (89)

2) oilers win (91), blues beat nashville, blues beat/lose/tie minnesota (91+), nashville tie avs (90)

3) oilers win (91), blues tie nashville, blues lose to minnesota (90), nashville lose to avs (90)

4) oilers win (91), blues tie nashville, blues tie minnesota (91), nashville lose to avs (90)

5) oilers win (91), blues tie nashville, blues beat minnesota (92), nashville lose to avs (90)

6) oilers win (91), blues tie nashville, blues lose to minnesota (90), nashville tie avs (91)

7) oilers win (91), blues tie nashville, blues lose to minnesota (90), nashville beat avs (92)

8) oilers win (91), nashville beat blues, blues lose to minnesota (89), nashville lose/tie/beat avs (91+)

9) oilers win (91), nashville beat blues, blues tie minnesota (90), nashville lose.tie/beat avs (91+)

10) oilers win (91), nashville beat blues in OT, blues lose to minnesota (90), nashville lose/tie/beat avs (91+)

11) oilers win (91), blues beat nashville in OT, blues lose/tie/beat minnesota (91+), nashville lose to avs (90)

12) oilers tie (90), blues lose to nashville, blues lose to minnesota (89), nashville lose/tie/beat avs (91+)

13) oilers tie (90), blues beat nashville, blues lose/tie/beat minnesota (91+), nashville lose to avs (89)

thats all the scenarios i can think of, if i forgot any please point it out and i will add it..... but it basically means that if we win, anything can happen in the blues/preds game and edmoton still has a shot..... it also shows that the best chance edmonton has is the blues and preds tying, but thats a dangerous game since an OT win by one team would mean the other team then has to lose the next game, where as a regulation win by one team would only mean the other team needs to tie or lose..... statistically speaking the tie is our best option


Last edited by jadeddog: 04-02-2004 at 02:03 AM.
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04-02-2004, 02:00 AM
  #2
get yer Aivazoff
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog
ok well here is every possible scenario that gets the oilers into the playoffs, and what the team finishes with in brackets
If the Oilers tie (edit -- or lose in OT), they can still get in as long as one of STL or NAS loses both their remaining games.

.

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04-02-2004, 02:04 AM
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yeah i forgot about that, i made the changes

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04-02-2004, 02:08 AM
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basically, if Nashville wins one more game, we're out.

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04-02-2004, 02:29 AM
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Originally Posted by USC Trojans
basically, if Nashville wins one more game, we're out.
no, because STL could lose to Minny as well.

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04-02-2004, 02:34 AM
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Hey, I jsut realised that the regulation winner of the Nashville - St. Louis game clinches a playoff spot. I wish I could see that one!

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04-02-2004, 09:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilers112
Hey, I jsut realised that the regulation winner of the Nashville - St. Louis game clinches a playoff spot. I wish I could see that one!

Even if it's not a regulation winner, they'll still clinch. Both St. Louis and Nashville hold the tiebreaker advantage over Edmonton.


So basically, whoever wins is in. Assuming someone wins....


Would the best-case scenario for Edmonton being that St. Louis and Nashville tie? if Edmonton beats Vancouver, all they'll need is a regulation loss for the Blues vs. the Wild or the Preds vs. the Avs.... or would it be best for St. Louis to outright beat the Preds in regulation, so it comes down to the Preds having to win vs. the Avs?

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04-02-2004, 09:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin
Even if it's not a regulation winner, they'll still clinch. Both St. Louis and Nashville hold the tiebreaker advantage over Edmonton.


So basically, whoever wins is in. Assuming someone wins....


Would the best-case scenario for Edmonton being that St. Louis and Nashville tie? if Edmonton beats Vancouver, all they'll need is a regulation loss for the Blues vs. the Wild or the Preds vs. the Avs.... or would it be best for St. Louis to outright beat the Preds in regulation, so it comes down to the Preds having to win vs. the Avs?
I think them tying is the best scenario. The chances of one of them losing their final game is greater than Nashille losing to Colorado.

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04-02-2004, 09:23 AM
  #9
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Are you sure it's the best case?


I mean, what if Colorado's division is locked up and they rest their players vs. the Preds?


and sure, the Wild might not really be pushovers.... but come on. It's the WILD.


Though yeah, a tie would probably be best anyways. Bank on at least one of them getting a regulation loss.


Oh man, this is gonna be an exciting finish!

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04-02-2004, 09:32 AM
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There are 3 games between STL/NSH/EDM, each with 4 possible outcomes. However, since these games are independent (don't affect another team in question), OTL=L, so there are actually only 3 relavent outcomes for each game.

The STL/NSH game has 5 possible outcomes
(STL W,NSH L; STL W,NSH OTL; STL T, NSH T; STL L,NSH W; STL OTL,NSH W)

Hence we pick one outcome from each game, so there are 135 outcomes.


Assuming a uniform distribution over the possible outcomes, and that you've captured all the possible winning scenarios for the Oilers, we have about a 9% chance of making the playoffs.

EDIT: Actually, (1), (2), (8)-(13) include 3 outcomes each, so 12 more good outcomes, i.e. 25 winning scenarios, so about 18% chance of making the playoffs.

I screwed up, there are more than 45 possibilities (3,3,3,5)


Last edited by Blatherblah: 04-02-2004 at 09:40 AM.
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04-02-2004, 09:33 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin
Even if it's not a regulation winner, they'll still clinch. Both St. Louis and Nashville hold the tiebreaker advantage over Edmonton.


So basically, whoever wins is in. Assuming someone wins....


Would the best-case scenario for Edmonton being that St. Louis and Nashville tie? if Edmonton beats Vancouver, all they'll need is a regulation loss for the Blues vs. the Wild or the Preds vs. the Avs.... or would it be best for St. Louis to outright beat the Preds in regulation, so it comes down to the Preds having to win vs. the Avs?
Given the reality of the mathematical combinations, one is forced to conclude that Optimism is an Art not a Science!

However, better the Preds dead or St. Louis singing those dirgey Blues than the 'Oil' putrefying under the soil!

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04-02-2004, 09:35 AM
  #12
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The only scenario that I want is for the Oilers to be opening up the first round in Detroit on Wednesday night. 2-1 in OT, with team MVP Ethan Moreau getting the first GW of the playoffs. Am I asking too much here??
Pretty good scenario though, isn't it??

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04-02-2004, 09:42 AM
  #13
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If the Oilers win in Vancouver, their chances will be a bit better.
Given the Oilers win in Vancouver, we only have 3 games to decide, i.e. 45 possible outcomes (3,3,5). 11 winning outcomes (according to your nice post at the top), so abot 24% chance of making it. I hope that's right

Even Buffalo has a better chance if they win their last two games, they need the Isles to not win either of their games (9 outcomes, 3 favourable: LL,LT,TL).

33%!


Last edited by Blatherblah: 04-02-2004 at 09:46 AM.
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04-02-2004, 09:45 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ikcotyck
There are 3 games between STL/NSH/EDM, each with 4 possible outcomes. However, since these games are independent (don't affect another team in question), OTL=L, so there are actually only 3 relavent outcomes for each game.

The STL/NSH game has 5 possible outcomes
(STL W,NSH L; STL W,NSH OTL; STL T, NSH T; STL L,NSH W; STL OTL,NSH W)

Hence we pick one outcome from each game, so there are 135 outcomes.


Assuming a uniform distribution over the possible outcomes, and that you've captured all the possible winning scenarios for the Oilers, we have about a 9% chance of making the playoffs.

EDIT: Actually, (1), (2), (8)-(13) include 3 outcomes each, so 12 more good outcomes, i.e. 25 winning scenarios, so about 18% chance of making the playoffs.

I screwed up, there are more than 45 possibilities (3,3,3,5)
I don't think probability theory is very relevant here unless you factor in the teams' relative winning percentages, win/loss record on the road etc. For example, is there only a 1 in 2 chance that Tampa Bay beats Chicago in Tampa? A tie between Nashville and St. Louis is definitely the best possible outcome.. it is likely that one of the Blues/Preds lose the next day after playing a tough overtime game the night before.

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04-02-2004, 09:46 AM
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If the Oilers win and miss the playoffs, I think (and this is based on something I heard a couple of years ago) that it will be the most points a team outside the playoffs has ever had (91). It could be 93, but I think that no team has ever missed the playoffs with 91 points.

Not the type of history I'm in the mood for making.

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04-02-2004, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral
I don't think probability theory is very relevant here unless you factor in the teams' relative winning percentages, win/loss record on the road etc. For example, is there only a 1 in 2 chance that Tampa Bay beats Chicago in Tampa? A tie between Nashville and St. Louis is definitely the best possible outcome.. it is likely that one of the Blues/Preds lose the next day after playing a tough overtime game the night before.
Using a uniform distribution basically flattens everything out as a level playing field. It's a good marking stick, but certainly not the final word.

Also how would you confirm that Blues/Preds lose the next day after playing a tough OT game? They are playing for their playoff lives... consider the Oilers, coming off a tough loss in STL, and winning in Dallas of all places.

I wouldn't live or die by the probabilities, having seen the Oilers' wildly improbable run already (does anyone else remember when they were below .500 for months?? Now they're 8 games over!)


Last edited by Blatherblah: 04-02-2004 at 09:53 AM.
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04-02-2004, 09:50 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle
If the Oilers win and miss the playoffs, I think (and this is based on something I heard a couple of years ago) that it will be the most points a team outside the playoffs has ever had (91). It could be 93, but I think that no team has ever missed the playoffs with 91 points.

Not the type of history I'm in the mood for making.
I thought the Oilers missed with 92 a few years ago? Or is my memory a bit fuzzy?

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04-02-2004, 09:51 AM
  #18
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If we don't beat Vancouver, it won't matter if they both lose both of their games (which is impossible because they play each other, but you get the point). That's what we should be focusing on.

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04-02-2004, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ikcotyck
I thought the Oilers missed with 92 a few years ago? Or is my memory a bit fuzzy?
that is right

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04-02-2004, 10:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral
... A tie between Nashville and St. Louis is definitely the best possible outcome.. it is likely that one of the Blues/Preds lose the next day after playing a tough overtime game the night before.
I'd agree ... that would give the Oilers a slightly better chance of making the show than if one team won. A STL victory is the next base case.

BTW: As it stands right now, and IF we assume that the Oilers win on Saturday ... there is about a 59% chance of the Oilers getting in. That goes up to about a 75% chance if the STL/NSH game ends in a tie. This going by educated estimates of what the oddsmakers numbers will be for each game.

One thing for sure, a month ago I wouldn't have thought that the Oilers last game would have mattered. Its a fun time of year


Last edited by igor*: 04-02-2004 at 10:30 AM.
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04-02-2004, 10:53 AM
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If by "fun" you mean "ulcer-inducing", then ya!


Geez... I'm not even that much of an Oilers fan and I'm on the edge of my seat here!

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04-02-2004, 10:55 AM
  #22
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When the best scenario is the only worthwhile outcome!

Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
I'd agree ... that would give the Oilers a slightly better chance of making the show than if one team won. A STL victory is the next base case.

BTW: As it stands right now, and IF we assume that the Oilers win on Saturday ... there is about a 59% chance of the Oilers getting in. That goes up to about a 75% chance if the STL/NSH game ends in a tie. This going by educated estimates of what the oddsmakers numbers will be for each game.

One thing for sure, a month ago I wouldn't have thought that the Oilers last game would have mattered. Its a fun time of year
So igor, you are a positive optimist after-all. 59% - 75% chance assuming an Oilers' win? Not really by the numbers that Assuming stuff. But what can we all do but stay positive ...

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04-02-2004, 11:05 AM
  #23
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This is such a tough call. I think I have more faith in Minni than in Colorado.

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04-02-2004, 11:24 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by PineJockey
This is such a tough call. I think I have more faith in Minni than in Colorado.
But if Colorado's competing for the division title, who knows? Minnesota's just playing the role of spoiler. Colorado's gearing up for (what they hope) is a nice playoff run.


Don't forget last year; the Avs came out of nowhere and stole the division title by 1 point on the very last day. Then they promptly got embarassed in the 1st round, but still! They have a tendency of gearing up at the end of the regular season. Who knows!

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04-02-2004, 12:45 PM
  #25
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The Blues haven't beaten the Wild yet this (regular) season. Plus, we seem to like to play spoiler.

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