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Old
11-22-2009, 01:38 PM
  #1026
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Originally Posted by Messier 4 Mayor View Post
Quiz:

Name the last player to win WHL points title (after his draft year) and have any kind of impact in the NHL?
Sakic and Fleury tied in 1989. Ray Whitney in 1991. Langkow in 1995.

Practically everyone who had draft pedigree and did it at 19 years old (and not 20). Save for (heh) Pavel Brendl.

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11-22-2009, 01:55 PM
  #1027
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Exactly once in the history of the draft and WHL has a player moved on to be a star. I am pleased to see Eberle's success however history dictates that winning the WHL scoring title has done little to indicate NHL success. I believe we better prospects in Nash, MPS, Rajala or Petry.
Well he hasnt won it yet so we still have hope

But that first sentance doesnt make any sense. MPS, Nash and Petry are debatable but Rajala IMO isnt anywhere near a better prospect than Eberle.

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11-22-2009, 02:19 PM
  #1028
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Players in the top 10 of WHL scoring to make an NHL impact from 06-95 (ranked by points)

05-06 - Brouwer, Boyd, Setoguchi, Helm
04-05 - Fehr, Stone, Brule, Dawes
04-03 - Brodziak, Fehr
03-02 - Christensen, Laich, Dawes
02-01 - Lupul
01-00 - Stoll
00-99 - Hunter
99-98 - Gomez, Saprykin
98-97 - Petrovicky?
97-96 - Ritchie, Marleau, Schaefer, McLean
96-95 - Iginla, Schaefer


So if the stats tell us anything, its that box cars dont tell us much.

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Old
11-22-2009, 02:40 PM
  #1029
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Oh, forgot to mention, I'll be going to the Subway Super Series match in Windsor tomorrow. Let me know if there's anyone you want me to keep an eye on.

http://www.subwaysuperseries.com/rosters/ohl

The second roster is who I'll be watching.

And Eberle...wow! What a beast

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11-22-2009, 08:29 PM
  #1030
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Kinda suprising coming from you given you've seen him play a few times over the last couple seasons. Im a little skeptical about what he can do at the NHL level too, but too say his absolutle upside is a 2nd line player who might score 30 goals one or twice is pretty laughable.

Lets not forget Comrie was a top line player in the NHL when he entered the league and just never really was able to translate his game fully to be the player we all thought he can be.
i consider an upside-comparable of comire to be a *compliment*.... comrie has had a pretty decent NHL career (30+ goals twice and 20+ goals another three times)... a career GPG of 0.29, which works out to 24 goals a season... how is this not a compliment?

they are almost the exact same size.... comries 2.14 PPG and 1.05 GPG as a 20 year old in the WHL are very similar to eberles stats (2.09 PPG and 0.91 GPG) as a 19 year old... both are average skaters at best... both protect the puck pretty good

i do think that eberle has a few advantages over comrie though... his shot is much, much better - its an NHL level snap shot... i would say its even a good NHL level snap shot.... he was also taken higher in the draft, and the draft has historically been a pretty good indicator of future success

comrie has the major advantage though, and thats the ability to produce at the NHL level... eberle hasn't been given this opportunity, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush (or so i've heard)... i think comrie is a good comparable, and i really think its a compliment to eberle

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11-22-2009, 10:17 PM
  #1031
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Comrie is a pretty decent comparable. If he had kept his wits about him instead of getting into a contract dispute, and also if he had managed to stay healthy, he would have been a perennial 30-30-60 guy in the NHL imo. Injuries have taken a toll on his speed.

If Eberle manages to be a 30-30-60 guy in the NHL that would be a sparkling success for the Oilers drafting team.

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Old
11-22-2009, 11:34 PM
  #1032
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Comrie is a pretty decent comparable. If he had kept his wits about him instead of getting into a contract dispute, and also if he had managed to stay healthy, he would have been a perennial 30-30-60 guy in the NHL imo. Injuries have taken a toll on his speed.

If Eberle manages to be a 30-30-60 guy in the NHL that would be a sparkling success for the Oilers drafting team.
i just ran the two players behindthenet.ca equivalencies (that lowetide is so fond of) and they are very similar as well

eberle (18 yrs old in 2008-09) -> 1 AHL PPG * 0.65 AHL eq. = 0.65 NHLE
eberle (19 yrs old in 2009-10) -> 2.09 WHL PPG (so far) * 0.3 WHL eq. = 0.63 NHLE

comrie (19 yrs old in 1999-00) -> 1.48 NCAA PPG * 0.41 NCAA eq. = 0.6 NHLE
comrie (20 yrs old in 2000-01) -> 2.14 WHL PPG * 0.3 WHL eq. = 0.64 NHLE
comrie (20 yrs old in 2000-01) -> actual NHL PPG = 0.54

so eberles equivalencies are slightly higher and his seasons are 1 year younger.... also, he played in the AHL as an 18 year old and his equivalencies stayed pretty much exactly the same, which is a very good sign indeed.... i wouldn't be at all shocked to see eberle put up a 1+ PPG in the AHL next season.... or if he gets relatively the same minutes as comrie got in his rookie year (unlikely), a 0.5 PPG in the NHL

the more i look at these two players, the more i think they serve as fairly good comparables

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11-23-2009, 07:37 AM
  #1033
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
i just ran the two players behindthenet.ca equivalencies (that lowetide is so fond of) and they are very similar as well

eberle (18 yrs old in 2008-09) -> 1 AHL PPG * 0.65 AHL eq. = 0.65 NHLE
eberle (19 yrs old in 2009-10) -> 2.09 WHL PPG (so far) * 0.3 WHL eq. = 0.63 NHLE

comrie (19 yrs old in 1999-00) -> 1.48 NCAA PPG * 0.41 NCAA eq. = 0.6 NHLE
comrie (20 yrs old in 2000-01) -> 2.14 WHL PPG * 0.3 WHL eq. = 0.64 NHLE
comrie (20 yrs old in 2000-01) -> actual NHL PPG = 0.54

so eberles equivalencies are slightly higher and his seasons are 1 year younger.... also, he played in the AHL as an 18 year old and his equivalencies stayed pretty much exactly the same, which is a very good sign indeed.... i wouldn't be at all shocked to see eberle put up a 1+ PPG in the AHL next season.... or if he gets relatively the same minutes as comrie got in his rookie year (unlikely), a 0.5 PPG in the NHL

the more i look at these two players, the more i think they serve as fairly good comparables
I think you need to be careful in comparing 20 yr old seasons to 19 yr old seasons in general (Desjardins nicks players as they get older in the AHL, but I don't think there was enough data to do so with CHL equivalencies). But yes, it is a decent comparable. I may be optimistic, but I see Comrie's NHL level of play as about the expected progression for Eberle at this point, not an outer marker.

At worst, I'd say he tracks like Peter Schaeffer: tore up the WHL with 2.02PPG at age 19, ended up as a 15-20 goal scorer in the NHL, useful role player. That's not ideal, but it's covering the bet for a late first round pick.

At best though, I don't see why he couldn't end up as a Simon Gagne: same draft position as Eberle, also scored ~2PPG his last year in junior, more a scorer than a playmaker, not a physical player but high hockey IQ... alright, fine, he's a better skater, but when he was drafted I would assume most people had him pegged as a 2nd line complementary scorer.

Sometimes players outperform, and it's nice to be optimistic when discussing upside.

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Old
11-23-2009, 10:21 AM
  #1034
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Originally Posted by oilymion View Post
I think you need to be careful in comparing 20 yr old seasons to 19 yr old seasons in general (Desjardins nicks players as they get older in the AHL, but I don't think there was enough data to do so with CHL equivalencies). But yes, it is a decent comparable. I may be optimistic, but I see Comrie's NHL level of play as about the expected progression for Eberle at this point, not an outer marker.

At worst, I'd say he tracks like Peter Schaeffer: tore up the WHL with 2.02PPG at age 19, ended up as a 15-20 goal scorer in the NHL, useful role player. That's not ideal, but it's covering the bet for a late first round pick.

At best though, I don't see why he couldn't end up as a Simon Gagne: same draft position as Eberle, also scored ~2PPG his last year in junior, more a scorer than a playmaker, not a physical player but high hockey IQ... alright, fine, he's a better skater, but when he was drafted I would assume most people had him pegged as a 2nd line complementary scorer.

Sometimes players outperform, and it's nice to be optimistic when discussing upside.
I would agree, but I think you understated your first point. The difference between overager and 19 year old is tremendous.

An offensive player loading up on points in the WHL at 20 is irrelevant. He shouldn't be in the WHL at all, he should be in the AHL. The only reason he wouldn't be is that he's dealing with an issue that would change the circumstances of him going pro.

I think we can all agree that if the AHL was an option for Jordan Eberle, he would be there.

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Old
11-23-2009, 03:15 PM
  #1035
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I would agree, but I think you understated your first point. The difference between overager and 19 year old is tremendous.

An offensive player loading up on points in the WHL at 20 is irrelevant. He shouldn't be in the WHL at all, he should be in the AHL. The only reason he wouldn't be is that he's dealing with an issue that would change the circumstances of him going pro.

I think we can all agree that if the AHL was an option for Jordan Eberle, he would be there.
i agree with you both (you and oilymion) that the difference between a 19 year old a 20 year old in the WHL is large... but the two players NHLE is pretty much the exact same for their 19 year old seasons as well (0.6 and 0.63)... if/when eberle plays in the AHL next season, i would expect this "tracking" to continue for him, and for him to score roughly 0.9-1.2 PPG

i don't think gagne is a good comparable at all, because gagne is an *exceptional* skater, even at the NHL level.... also, gagne is 2 inches taller and 10-15 pounds heavier than eberle.... so he's a much, much faster skater and a good deal larger, two rather important things for a NHL player

i do agree that a player like schaeffer would be a decent comparable for the mid range of what to expect from eberle in the NHL... this is obviously not the worse-case scenario though... his bottom end remains, of course, playing in the minors for the majority of his career

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Old
11-23-2009, 07:05 PM
  #1036
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
i agree with you both (you and oilymion) that the difference between a 19 year old a 20 year old in the WHL is large... but the two players NHLE is pretty much the exact same for their 19 year old seasons as well (0.6 and 0.63)... if/when eberle plays in the AHL next season, i would expect this "tracking" to continue for him, and for him to score roughly 0.9-1.2 PPG

i don't think gagne is a good comparable at all, because gagne is an *exceptional* skater, even at the NHL level.... also, gagne is 2 inches taller and 10-15 pounds heavier than eberle.... so he's a much, much faster skater and a good deal larger, two rather important things for a NHL player

i do agree that a player like schaeffer would be a decent comparable for the mid range of what to expect from eberle in the NHL... this is obviously not the worse-case scenario though... his bottom end remains, of course, playing in the minors for the majority of his career
Eberle is 5'11(on the closer end to 6'0) and 184 Ibs, Gagne is 6'0 and 195 Ibs.

Once hes fully matured than he might turn out to be 6'0, 195 pounds too.

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11-23-2009, 07:26 PM
  #1037
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Eberle is 5'11(on the closer end to 6'0) and 184 Ibs, Gagne is 6'0 and 195 Ibs.

Once hes fully matured than he might turn out to be 6'0, 195 pounds too.
this is simply not true (unless he's grown significantly in the 7 months since i've seen him)... i'm 5'10.5 and i'm a good chunk taller than he is... the weight thing may be true, because hockey players are known to carry a lot of weight in their legs, which is hard to visually judge... but there is no way in hell he is anywhere close to 6 feet tall (again, unless hes grown at least 2 inches in the last half of a year)

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11-23-2009, 11:33 PM
  #1038
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Wow, four away games in the next five nights for the Pats and Eberle. Probably wishing he was an emergency call-up for the Oil right about now...

2009-11-24 Regina at Portland 7:00 pm PST
2009-11-25 Regina at Seattle 7:05 pm PST
2009-11-27 Regina at Everett 7:35 pm PST
2009-11-28 Regina at Spokane 7:00 pm PST

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11-24-2009, 12:18 AM
  #1039
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Wow, four away games in the next five nights for the Pats and Eberle. Probably wishing he was an emergency call-up for the Oil right about now...

2009-11-24 Regina at Portland 7:00 pm PST
2009-11-25 Regina at Seattle 7:05 pm PST
2009-11-27 Regina at Everett 7:35 pm PST
2009-11-28 Regina at Spokane 7:00 pm PST
So does this mean Eberle won't be suiting up for the Dub when they play against Russia in the super series? I think it's on Wednesday.

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11-24-2009, 01:12 AM
  #1040
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My bad, it looks like he'll miss the first two games to play Russia in Victoria on Wed Nov 25.

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11-24-2009, 07:58 PM
  #1041
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Nash with only 1 goal this year??

Bad move playing another year in college IMO

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11-24-2009, 08:05 PM
  #1042
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Nash with only 1 goal this year??

Bad move playing another year in college IMO
And 7 assists, 8 pts in 7 games is pretty good.

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11-24-2009, 08:19 PM
  #1043
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Nash with only 1 goal this year??
Make that two...Riley scored a powerplay goal tonight as Cornell defeated Colgate 4-2. He was set up by his brother Brendon for a hard one-timer from the left faceoff circle.

Cornell's next game will be this Saturday at a sold-out Madison Square Garden where they'll take on the defending national champion Boston University squad in a non-conference game. The MSG game will unfortunately not be televised this year, but BU will apparently be providing a webcast (not sure what the cost is).

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11-24-2009, 08:19 PM
  #1044
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And 7 assists, 8 pts in 7 games is pretty good.
I talked to soon lol


Nash with a goal and assist tonight so far.

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11-24-2009, 08:23 PM
  #1045
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Make that two...Riley scored a powerplay goal tonight as Cornell defeated Colgate 4-2. He was set up by his brother Brendon for a hard one-timer from the left faceoff circle.

Cornell's next game will be this Saturday at a sold-out Madison Square Garden where they'll take on the defending national champion Boston University squad in a non-conference game. The MSG game will unfortunately not be televised this year, but BU will apparently be providing a webcast (not sure what the cost is).
So you watch lots is he doing well? His goal pace is well short of last year as of now. I know his point totals are up a little bit but is he dominating against other teams? Best player on the ice every night? Best player on the team?

thanks

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11-24-2009, 08:52 PM
  #1046
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So you watch lots is he doing well? His goal pace is well short of last year as of now. I know his point totals are up a little bit but is he dominating against other teams? Best player on the ice every night? Best player on the team?

thanks
I've been to every Cornell home game so far this season. Nash is the best player on the team, though it's pretty close between him and Greening this year. Unlike Greening, however, I actually think Nash's scoring skill can translate to the NHL level. His goal tonight was an awesome shot, pretty much the same as his first goal this season, blasted home coming off the half-boards on the PP.

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